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OT: OREX leads the PF today. Speculative small cap pharma with anti-visceral pat pill in the start up of Phase III trials, so I imagine there will be plenty of time for to get into this one.
It is my speculative name for now.
Sold to close Jan 08 120's yesterday morning @ $27.80.
Bought Jan 08 120's this morning @ 22.60.
Currently at $26.00
Dizzy
I'm so dizzy my head is spinning :).
FUD, DUD, I don't care.
I stopped by a store to pick up some sweetner for the coffee mess at work and check my positions via iPhone - saw that AAPL had done a downward turn for the second day in a row and I sold my remaining calls.
Down to core shares now - and what a trading quarter it had been, since April 25, 2007. I think there will be plenty of opportunity to do it again from sometime in September through January, but for now I am protecting gains rather than taking what I see as a relatively high risk bet to increase those gains - definitely a different risk-reward view than back in April, in my book.
uesday July 31, 8:30 am ET
CUPERTINO, Calif., July 31 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Apple® today announced that more than three billion songs have been purchased and downloaded from the iTunes® Store (www.itunes.com). iTunes is the world's most popular online music, TV and movie store featuring a catalog of over five million songs, 550 television shows and 500 movies. iTunes recently surpassed Amazon and Target to become the third largest music retailer in the US.*
ADVERTISEMENT
"We'd like to thank all of our customers who have contributed to this incredible milestone," said Eddy Cue, Apple's vice president of iTunes.
With Apple's legendary ease of use, pioneering features such as Cover Flow(TM), integrated podcasting support, iMix playlist sharing, seamless integration with iPod® and iPhone(TM), and the ability to turn previously purchased songs into completed albums at reduced prices, the iTunes Store is the best way for PC and Mac® users to legally discover, purchase and download music and video online.
* Based on data from market research firm the NPD Group's MusicWatch survey, which captures consumer reported past week unit purchases equivalized so that one CD equals 12 tracks, excluding wireless transactions.
Apple ignited the personal computer revolution in the 1970s with the Apple II and reinvented the personal computer in the 1980s with the Macintosh. Today, Apple continues to lead the industry in innovation with its award-winning computers, OS X operating system and iLife and professional applications. Apple is also spearheading the digital media revolution with its iPod portable music and video players and iTunes online store, and has entered the mobile phone market this year with its revolutionary iPhone.
Apple store down - eom.
From the Financial Post
Canadians anxiously awaiting the arrival of Apple Inc.' s iPhone are in for a bit of a shock: they may need to move to Rwanda to afford it. That's because the hotly anticipated device is an Internet-connected mobile multi-media device first and a phone second, and as such requires large amounts of wireless download capability, the kind for which providers such as Rogers Communications Inc. and Bell Canada Inc. currently charge an arm and a leg. Embarrassing as it is, all this wireless data is cheaper almost anywhere else, including some African nations.
That has Apple, and another large and deep-pocketed technology company, search giant Google Inc., hopping mad -- and vowing that they're not going to take it anymore.
With demand for the iPhone bordering on rabid, Apple is daring to call the shots with wireless carriers. Google, meanwhile, has pledged billions of dollars to buy wireless airwaves in the United States in an effort to shake up what it sees as a cozy oligopoly. Apple and Google see the status quo in North America as holding back the spread of mobile Internet usage, and thus their own growth, so both are moving to fundamentally change the business. Given the gargantuan market capitalization and brand power of both companies, industry experts say a wireless future ruled by Apple and Google -- not the likes of AT&T Inc. and Rogers --is imminent.
"They see the wireless and mobile space as the hot place to be where all the fire hoses meet, so clearly they're beginning to use their market power to go into it," says Solutions Research Group president Kaan Yigit. "There's no question that in the next three or four years a new wireless landscape is going to emerge because of what Apple and Google are doing today."
More here: http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=81993157-2bba-4ff0-adbf-ce3c3bad3cae&...
Blue, on fellow over on IV photoshopped AAPL's chart onto your graph:
http://img521.imageshack.us/my.php?image=macsalesvsaaplgv8.jpg
System Shootouts Site Tracks Mac Sales
by John Martellaro, 4:15 PM EDT, July 27th, 2007
The total number of Macintoshes sold by Apple each quarter going back to September 1997 was nicely graphed on Thursday by Charles Gaba at his Website, systemshootouts.org. The graph shows the beginning of a new trend in Mac sales that started in late 2004.
A second chart shows Apple's world-wide market share for the same period.
In addition, there is tabular data for Apple's market share against PC manufacturers and year over year (Y/Y) growth going back to 2005.
The charts and data provide useful numbers for those who may want to research trends and assess how Apple has been doing, particularly in the past few years, against the PC makers.
http://systemshootouts.org/
I often wake up to see that pricing on my options has changed - proably happened a bit after market but not reported till sometime whilst I am sleeping.
Like this morning, for example. QAAAD's and VAAAW's were up substantially from the close.
Take a look at your brokerage account and see where they are tomorrow morning or Monday morning. Report back, please.
Theoretical stuff and options stuff
I dunno much about this here theoretical stuff, but I do know this. I have made a bunch of money this year buying in the money and close to the money calls 6 to 9 months out. Currently holding Jan 08 120's- have made over 100% a couple of times since April on Jan 08 120's and 100's. I am also holding some Jan 09 150's that have not sucked. I am surprised at how rapidly they came close to being in the money.
Bought Jan 100's in April for 10.10. Bought some Jan 08 120's for $9.10
Then in July I bought some Jan 09 $150's that don't suck.
As long as I stay bullish on Apple, all of my trading will be with in the money/near the money calls 6 months or farther out from the date of purchase (though, I may pick up some October's if the right opportunity presents itself.
May not make sense, but when profits in the 100's of percent are possible, makes some sense to me.
Those way out of the money ones - not for me, but does not mean folks can't and aren't making big money on them.
OT: AKAM getting clobbered. Buying opp? EOM.
I am pleased. EOM.
OT: I think I have mentioned OREX here. EOM
Cure for AAPL Option Addiction
Bankruptcy .
I have hedged my long position with some August 130 puts. You guys can watch the action and decide whether it was smart or dumb, but I was feeling a bit exposed
Everyone belted in and ready for earnings :).
I am home - gonna put some sausages on the grill and get ready :).
Did my first iPhone trading today. I had gone to my brokerage site with it and looked at my positions and some quotes, but today was, to my memory, the first transactions. It worked really well. The web on it is amazing. I was selling to close some options that I held, so I did it from the Positions page. I used the two finger spreading motion on the screen to make the part I wanted a little larger, entered the trades using the virtual keyboard in landscape mode and submitted the trades.
Went to orders page after that and saw I they filled. All done over the AT&T cell network and it was very satisfactory. Much more so than the markets today.
tomm,
please expand your line of thinking there.
thanks
Ron
buy this dip?
Sorta. I added to Jan 2009 LEAPS and sold my January 08 calls.
I have made so much money on Jan 08 calls, I decided to cash the rest of them out. So, we're down to our core shares + some Jan 09 LEAPS with a $150 strike price.
In other news, precious metals have been moving nicely over the past few weeks and some analysts are talking breakout. We'll see.
Synchross down about 3 bucks in pre-market. eom.
From T's earnings release PR
Sales of the Apple iPhone have been robust. The June 29 launch allowed for less than two days of sales and activations before the end of the quarter. In that time, AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers,> more than 40 percent of them new subscribers. Sales of the iPhone continue to be strong in July with store traffic above historical levels.
Look out below
tomm,
It is not one of my horses. It may be a incorrect application of the PortalPlay lesson, but I am not keen on investing in companies that provide services or parts for Apple products.
I'll ride Apple.
Yes tomm,
I remember that and have read more about the company since then. I found the new iPhone estimates in the message I posted today interesting. I wish the fellow would have said more about his reasoning.
Ron
Cribbed from some other silicon investor message board:
Synchronoss (SNCR) up about 10% today, they do the online iPhone customer setup work for AT&T, so they're part of the iPhone parts/service supply chain.
Apparently 1 or 2 SNCR analysts have upgraded based on raised estimates for iPhone sales.
This Barron's blog link has some details, probably the content is OK (not a plant by a stock pumper) but I am unable to find any confirming links from Yahoo finance.
(from blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2007/07/23/synchronoss-thinkequity-boosts-target-estimates-its-all-about-the-iphone/ )
Above url doesn't work in this SI post so I'll quote it instead:
"July 23, 2007, 10:19 am
Synchronoss: ThinkEquity Boosts Target, Estimates; It’s All About The iPhone
Posted by Eric Savitz
Synchronoss Technologies (SNCR) shares are sharply higher this morning after ThinkEquity analyst Eric Kainer raised his price target for the company to $44 from $35, citing higher expectations for Apple (AAPL) iPhone sales.
Sychronoss generated over 70% of its revenue from AT&T (T), which has an exclusive carrier relationship with Apple for the iPhone; the company provides transaction management services, generating fees when new customers register their phones for service.
Kainer says his new model anticipates iPhone sales of 3.975 million units this year, and 13.25 million in 2008. His EPS estimates jump to 84 cents from 60 cents for this year, and to $1.15 from 78 cents for next year. In his previous model, Kainer had been expecting iPhone unit sales of 1.75 million this year and 10 million next year. He says Synchronoss generates $8 per activation.
Syncrhonoss today is up $2.92 at $38.42."
Huge iPhone Fees Juice Apple
By Scott Moritz
Senior Writer
7/23/2007 3:53 PM EDT
A sweet iPhone deal with AT&T (T - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) is paying off for Apple (AAPL - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) even faster than Wall Street expected.
It's well established that the world's most talked-about phone has lured thousands of free-spending, lust seeking customers since its introduction last month. But the financial terms of the revenue-sharing deal have been kept under wraps.
Until now, that is.
People close to the companies tell TheStreet.com that AT&T is paying Apple a bounty of between $150 and $200 per phone -- plus $9 a month per phone over the life of the typical two-year customer contract.
AT&T didn't comment, and Apple said it would have no comment.
But the figures show Apple is getting an unprecedented windfall on the sale of each new iPhone. Bulls on the stock believe the nifty terms -- which haven't been baked into Wall Street's earnings estimates for Apple -- could push Apple's highflying stock into the stratosphere.
"This is unheard of," says one money manager who is long Apple. "No one has this plugged this into their models."
"It's a pretty sweet deal for Apple, and not all that bad for AT&T," says IAG Research's Roger Entner.
AT&T agreed to a five-year exclusive pact to sell the iPhone. The deal included a two-pronged payment plan to Apple, as TheStreet.com reported in April.
Wall Street knew Apple was getting a good deal, but it didn't know just how good it was.
http://www.thestreet.com/s/sweet-iphone-fees-juice-apple/newsanalysis/techtelecom/10369581.html
AT&T showing a little life today. I opened a position in it back a few weeks ago that has been pretty flat since then - but gotta like the divvy :).
Sold to close 1/2 of Jan 120's covering cost on remaining contracts.
Sold to close 1/2 of Jan 2009 150's - bought at $16 sold at $29, so didn't quite cover cost of the remaining 1/2.
Fell better about holding now .
Earnings Day
I am taking that afternoon off an heading home to read, observe and chat.
The other side of the coin:
I think Apple earns $5.00 + a share in the next fiscal year. I think estimates are way too conservative, don't include recurring revenue-sharing with AT&T, under-estimate Mac computer growth and underestimate iPhone sales. There is nothing particularly wrong or nefarious about this - I just think we are going to see a lot of upwardly revised estimates and target prices going forward.
I could, however be wrong .
It is now the week of the Earnings Report
Here is how I am positioned: 47% of our self-managed portfolios are in AAPL. It has been roughly around that number since the day of the last quarterly earnings report.
AAPL shares 17%
AAPL calls/LEAPS (QAAAT, QAAAD, VAAAW) 30.5%
Might be an interesting week, trying to read the tea leaves on performance v. expectation levels v. market reaction etc..
I'll probably be lulled into a catatonic state, hence holding through earnings due to an inability to move the fingers to click on the sell button.
I sure hope
You mens and womyns are making a ton of money also.
This is fun
OT: SLW, GG, AUY, GRS, MFN, AZK, KBX, GLE -
between shares and calls of the above miners, had a great day despite AAPL's day. It is not broad diversification, but it works pretty good some of the time
REDF - no, re-deployed into OREX. eom.
Robert Heinlein
The Cat , walls, walk through
Holy Cow
Read him, Asimov
Robert Rimmer
Could unlocked iPhones could well mean less dollars from AT&T from the monthly service plan money?
dupe caused when editing
AT&T - they did in 2001 here in Portland,
were bought out by Comcast not long thereafter
cable modems
I have a Toshiba cable modem I bought in 2001 that is still going strong. Back then AT&T charged $10 a month and the modem was under $200 to buy at CompUSA- AT&T is now Comcast :).
iPhone revenue
I think most folks expect some kind of signing bonus to be paid to Apple also. I read that is kinda a standard practice in the business, but I know less than zero about that business.
Well, here is what I know
Apple make phone
Apple sell phone
Apple make money
AT&T sell service
AT&T make money
AT&T give some money to Apple
Apple stock go up.
iPhone buyers buy other Apple stuff
Apple stock go up more.
I am aware of some people who ordered via web on June 29 whose phones were shipped, according to their posts on another Apple board.
One-in-three Americans want iPhone
Apple's iPhone could become one of the most succesful product launches yet
Jonny Evans
Apple's iPhone could emerge as the most succesful product introduction of the 21st century, new research suggests.
Lightspeed Research surveyed 39,000 people on its US online panel in the days following the launch of the device on 29 June - and the research findings are staggering.
Thirty-two per cent of those surveyed who do not currently own an iPhone stated that they do intend to purchase one, with 8 per cent planning to purchase in the next three months and 22 per cent planning to purchase "some time in the future", the researchers said.
Respondents ages 44 and under plan to purchase at a rate higher than those ages 45 and over. Forty per cent of respondents ages 18 to 24 said they are planning to purchase an iPhone some time in the future, followed closely by 25 to 34 year olds (36 per cent) and 35 to 44 year olds (33 per cent).
Apple has achieved notoriety for the device. Nearly 90 per cent of respondents have heard of the device.
Lightspeed Research claims those who live in the Pacific region were nearly twice as likely as those who live in other regions to purchase an iPhone. The New England and Mid-Atlantic regions also showed above average purchase levels.
In an additional survey of 34,000 respondents conducted by Lightspeed Research on 5 July, nearly half of those who would like to own an iPhone stated that the benefits of having music, movie, internet and wireless all in one was the top reason.
http://www.macworld.co.uk/ipod-itunes/news/index.cfm?newsid=18539&pagtype=allchandate