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Yup...driven by WX which is at the moment warm/ (not cold) for turkey week. Not betting the farm but will have a position over weekend. Undetermined which one at the moment.
Thinking today's range is NG 3.04 to 3.11.. Might be going to 3.11 first!
Sold My UGAZ at 10.18 and bought DGAZ at 25.20..
GLTA
Vision, Yes like the elephant. Slowly but surely!
Here tis, just plug in the current DGAZ price
Lets say NG currently 3.07 you want to buy at NG 3.00 and NG 2.92
3.07/3.00=1.023
.023x3=.069
Lets say DGAZ currently at 25.50
25.50x.069=1.75
25.50+1.75= 27.25 your selling DGAZ at NG 3.0
3.07/2.92=1.051
.051x3=.153
25.50x.153=3.90
25.50+3.90= 29.40 your selling DGAZ at NG 2.92
GLTU
Lets say NG currently 3.07 you want to buy at NG 3.00 and NG 2.92
3.07/3.00=1.023
.023x3=.069
Lets say UGAZ currently at 10.0
10.0x.069=.69
10-.69= 9.31 your buying UGAZ at NG 3.0
3.07/2.92=1.051
.051x3=.153
10x.153=1.53
10-1.53= 8.47 you want to buy UGAZ at NG 2.92
GLTU
Daily Chart still over bought:
The bottom trend line is NG 2.92...Does she get there. Well if your looking for an over sold Daily Chart prior to reversal she does.
So Im buying 1/2 at 3.00 and the other 1/2 at Daily over sold of 2.92...Is better to buy after confirmed reversal neways! So if I miss the 2.92 I buy 3.02 etc~
GLTA
Yup missed it!
Yeap thats what im waiting for! Although weather could drive it lower 2.94/2.98
Note that sometimes, on report day, the algos wait till after markets to run NG or drop her for that matter. That was a very bullish report today, with more to come. Only thing holding this puppy down is the weather ensemble BS...
GLTA
tempted with 1/2 but have not!
Should be bullish. However peeps looking at warm weather. No one buying and no one selling yet neways!
3.08 is 55 ma strong..
Todays Trading Range:
Based on historical (seasonally-adjusted) and implied volatility, there is a 68% chance that natural gas price will trade in the range between $2.95 and $3.22 per MMBtu over the next five trading sessions. A narrower, statistically adjusted range is $2.97-3.19 per MMBtu.
Im thinking with bullish report NG pops to 3.13/3.15 area. Then down to 3.05 possibly 3.02. Then tomorrow even lower!
Note the Gap did not close in 2016, However Wx is not conducive for a bullish run yet. Hence why Im scalping 1/2 long selling pops and buying short. rinse repeat.
GLTA
Loading UGAZ at 10.00
Sold 1/2 of U at 10.50...Thinking NG goes to 3.15 then retraces.
We all did.. Gotta play between the lines and not get caught off sides.. to use a football term!
DGAZ play will be here again before you know it!
Bought some more UGAZ 10.00!
Bought 5k shares of UGAZ at 10.60 for overnight hold..Really want 10.20 and lower!
sold other 1/2 of D @ 24.20...Looking to buy UGAZ for a scalp into Thursday!
Im scalping now getting every little bit at the bottom of bowl!
For DGAZ to go to 32. NG must go 2.70/2.80. Cold Wx showing up for this Sunday. I think absolute bottom for NG in November is 2.98sh is we are lucky..3.06/3.10 is more reasonable assessment
But Im not playing it with DGAZ at NG down side risk. I will scalp and look for UGAZ entry starting in the 10.20 range down to 9.50.. Always looking at the WX..
GLTA
Sold DGAZ did not short anything. taking on profit!
No but I have to take profit,,Large margins!
Some support at NG 14.5 range..
Today is low volume day so they can pop this big or take it down!
Sold 1/2 at 23.80 from 22.70 avg!
The night is young, still to early to call! Looking to sell DGAZ at 4/4.50. Then watching for direction. May scalp in between. Since NG could go down to 3.06/3.00 or start reversing on more cold WX.
GLTA
Nice Ty for pics!
Yup....looks bleek for DGAZ dont it?
Does not concern me. I fully expect to see 3.25 sooner or later. Well prepared for it.
Im holding over weekend. Could go lower, If so will buy more!
While the EIA-reported injection today is likely to be bullish, it will face considerable pressure to outperform to prevent a "sell-the-news"-type pullback. With natural gas up nearly 8% inside of a week, temperatures poised to moderate by the middle of next week, and natural gas production at record highs, I feel that even a small miss in today's injection number will be used as an excuse to take profits, even though the commodity remains steeply undervalued according to my Fair Price model, with natural gas trading at a nearly 9% discount versus a Fair Price of $3.47/MMBTU based on current inventories alone. I expect it would take an injection of smaller than +8 BCF to be viewed as bullish and prompt a further rally towards $3.20/MMBTU while an injection of larger than +15 BCF would be viewed as a disappointment, prompting a pullback towards $3.10/MMBTU. An injection between +8 BCF and +15 BCF would be viewed as neutral with prices equally likely to rally or pullback. However, given these discounts from Fair Price and steep year-over-year declines in inventories, I expect that any pullback would be unlikely to take the commodity back under $3.00/MMBTU unless the forecast for December trends markedly milder.
Based on historical (seasonally-adjusted) and implied volatility, there is a 68% chance that natural gas price will trade in the range between $2.92 and $3.41 per MMBtu over the next five trading sessions. A narrower, statistically adjusted range is $3.06-3.27 per MMBtu.
That was Nov to January 2014. What was the market condition in 2014?
Here is Nov to January 2015.
Here's Nov to January 2012 - What was the market condition in 2012?
I'm not saying it is going to happen. But you cannot say it has never happened cause it is clear to me.
All driven by weather and NG demand!
GLTA