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6 billiion is not a fair valuation at this time. You are saying what you think this company could be worth if every one of its drugs comes to market and performs as expected
I agree with your assessment. 6 bil is a fair valuation.
Now Harvey get back to work and stop wasting time posting on message boards.
Maybe find us a nice asian partner
: 0)
I have one too. So far, it has worked out well, but who knows what will be the end result. Don't do it if it is going to make you sick.
Good luck to all of us.
Amen Don. Quite the sky is falling act. It's getting old. This is the riskiest of risk assets. You might like the potential reward, but you obviously are not up for the risk part.
Less than one month ago, he stated Ariad was not looking for financing. Now this. I think all of the long term holders of Ariad will agree that the dilution is not a bad move at all, it's the double speak that annoys the shit out of us.
We are all happy with the progress of Ponatinib, but please explain your defense of Berger with regard to the double talk.
Regards, Joe
I guess he wasn't getting offers for what he felt Ponatinib was worth. This does give him a stronger negotiating hand in partnering. If that is still on the table (which IMO is).
I don't mind the dilution, it's the "there will be no financing" comments that I can't stand.
Why not just shut the eff up and if you have to do it, then do it?
Whatever..... maybe we put a floor in and we move onward and upward.
F@#king berger
This company needs another year for things to really develop. Hopefully the world doesn't come to an end by then.
No guts, no glory baby.
Thanks. What time do they give you "access"?
Is there a broker that you know of that does allow PM orders prior to 8 AM?
That's always been the view of the top thought leaders in this space. How much it will trickle down to general practice is a different question
Moshe Topaz has absolutely nothing to do with the drop in share price.
Ok here it is
Anyone have the conference b/c all I have some nice jazz music.
Has not started yet, correct?
My guess is he is waiting to release the results and then sometime after ASH we should know who our partner will be. He can't have it both ways. He can't say no dilution and not partner. I am real curious as to how much a big pharma thinks this chunk of Ponatinib is worth.
"I coined that name," Schinazi said of Pharmasset. "It's actually 'pharmaceutical assets' and the idea was to create assets that would be sold to companies. That was the initial business plan".
Well mission accomplished Ray! Man, this guy fleeced GILD few times now. His comments toward them are rather snide, wouldn't you say?
I was really just using them as a prop for my joke. How many traded today?
Ameritrade shows now 4200 12's and as well as 2100 11's. They could be hedges against a big short position. Maybe Dew's? LMAO
It might not have been Berger himself, but someone at ARIA probably did say what was written in today’s Globe. It’s consistent with the company’s braggadocio communication style.
Why make a hyperbolic statement and then qualify it, which is what Berger did in the Globe article? He could have refrained from making the statement in the first place, but that’s just not his style
If someone at ARIA actually said this, it’s a rather extreme case of hyperbole. I continue to find these kinds of remarks, of which there have recently been several, to be mildly bearish.
Ariad Pharmaceuticals, a Cambridge company, is developing drugs that will block all the mutations through which a particular cancer could overcome a treatment.
Even with a strategy aimed at cutting off all escape routes, however, the company’s founder and chief executive, Dr. Harvey Berger, said it was important not to underestimate the opposition.
“Never bet against biology; never bet against a cancer cell. They’re too ‘smart,’ so I’ll never say that it’s impossible that a mutation can grow out,’’ Berger said.
I am a bit surprised Incy is not catching a bid today on the Vrus buyout as some other bios are. What do you make of the action lately?
I like the potential for the Hedgehog, but Cris sold of 90% of the Hh to Roche. Arias owns 100% of Ponatinib and 113. Each could potentially be a blockbuster (stress could potentially). Not many other bios can make that claim. That's been a common theme amongst some of the long term posters here for quite some time.
Just one of the reasons why I believe you would have to be out of your mind to think Ariad is a good short candidate.
Congrats to the maven. 1/2 of an 85% one day gain beats 0! ;0)
Hi, did you happen to notice that VRUS just got bought for an 85% premium?
On March 16, 2009 VRUS was trading at $3.90.
That's just remarkable. Congrats to the long term holders.
Dew
Getting back to our discussion of the "top pick short" (hypothetical or not), let's define the parameters of our gentlemen's wager. Let's say this: 1 year from today, where would you expect the share price to be from the $10.20 point? Higher or lower? For s#@ts and giggles, let's put our cards on the table as to what we think the share price will be.
I'll go first. My guess is that 1 year from today, Ariad's share price will be somewhere between $20-$25 per share.
How about you?
Incy is getting cheaper by the day. If it dips below $12, I might have to sell some Ariad and buy it ;0)
Anyone surprised INCY only closed up a few percentage points after approval of their lead drug?
The first line said that Sheff was being a little misleading with regard to Rux approval YMI. That's all that was needed.
This ain't my first time at the rodeo. Been here a long time. I know exactly who knows the s#@t. Thanks anyway.
He knows this company better than I do. Combine that with his general biotech knowledge and he has my attention.
I think he was bored and is enjoying busting balls, fwiw.
I took it as posturing. The two don't add up:
A- no dilution coming
B- no partner
Where's the money coming from for 113? I really hope his ego doesn't eff this up.
If he does, he is a scam artist and I sell all of my shares at that exact moment. I doubt he will though. He should have some nice offers to partner Ponatnib in Asia at this point.
Please be more precise with your assertions. What I actually said (in #msg-68938352) is: “ARIA strikes me as a potentially profitable short.” That’s quite different from saying that ARIA is a “top pick short” (your wording). Regards, Dew
They were paraphrasing statements by ARIA executives, were they not?
Both of those messages you linked are the words of posters on this board. As far as the Pona NDA, Ariad should be getting their ducks in a row it at this point for a filing.
As far as Ariad as a short, I think that would be a 50/50 bet at best. Certainly not a "top pick". Personally, I think you have your nuts twisted about Ariad after all of the endless pumpers on this board and someone posted some stupid comments directed at you.
FWIW, I am a huge fan of yours, but Pona and 113 are not LaViv.
Incy just had Rux approval and it's up a dollar or so. It has been taken to the woodshed in the last few months. According to Yahoo, lowest analyst has it @ $17, mean/median $23, highest @ $27.
Point being it's not a great market for biotech (including Ariad) right now.
EDIT: Change that from not a great market to a lousy market :0(
Fair enough. No offense, but I really hope this goes down as the worst prediction you have ever made. If it is, then I could probably buy Ihub and I'd let you bet anything you wanted.
This seemed a lot like you trying to stir the pot, but I'll bite. I think Ariad will present many opportunities for a good short along the way, but over the next few years patient shareholders should be rewarded (IMO).
How about one of your favorite friendly wagers? Let's say a one year Ihub subscription.
I don't think that is why the stock is selling off. The data is as good as one could have realistically expected. This is just the way it goes with biotech investing. I didn't hear any complaints from the board when many of these same filthy animals ran it up to $13.50. It's part of the deal, like it or not.
Just ask ole Hyman: