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We are of the same mind.
One thing to consider is worms with genetic drift wont be chosen to breed.
Kim developed a way to test the worms without killing them. So he can select good breeders
My guess is like most things the females slightly outnumber the males but the ratio could be skewed by centuries of breeding.
Females produce better silk I believe.
The production issue isnt with breeding.
112m cocoons just being pulled off the rack is 31,000 man hours of work.
That's 310 hours with a crew of 100 employees just to pluck the cocoons.
Kim's production restrictions will be manpower not worm power.
Should add that is at 1 per second.
It's could be slightly faster than that with skilled workers but not much.
If you spent 1 second on each step it would be years of work for 100 people
Plus about 10 days.
You skipped a step. The eggs must be refrigerated before they can hatch.
The PPS bottomed at 9.6. the week prior the high was 11.75 and dropped all week as insiders left.
Prior to the split the pps was $2.93.
the low on the 27th was 2.40.
An 18% drop.
Post split the PPS opened at $10 and dropped to the 9.7 range again.
The reason it broke above 10 was good test results.
The reason it "barley went down that day" was because the news came after the majority of trading was over. The market had less that 3 hours to process the info and react. Only those actively watching were able to react.
Their timing was pretty good. They knew their trial was going well and they knew the trial results would be announced the week after. This is why there was no RS notice. They found out the trial was working out and knew it would cover the drop caused by the RS.
Kim is in the same boat. As long as he can get the hint of good news in advance, he can time the split.
The split has to come just prior to the news.
Had they not been aware that the testing results were due on a specific date they could not time the RS right.
In Kims place i think the thing that will trigger the move is a contract. But the signing and PR are too close together to time everything.
RMLD knew in advance the testing would be done in early October so they could start planning in August.
Do you think Kim will have warning a month or 2 in advance of a military or polartec contract signing date? If not he will sign and have to PR before he can RS.
That either leads to no RS needed (which I doubt) or the RS after the news and the news cant stop the bleeding. It can only begin the bleeding at a higher point.
There is a ton of variables.
But my 40% guess is simply to do with the starting point.
It is FAR easier for a .20 stock to drop to .12 than it is for a $2 stock to drop to $1.20. FAR easier
http://schrts.co/TndazJIX
So that stock is a really good example.
Pre split pps was about $3. Post split it lost about 25%
From 12 down to around 9.5. Then it recovered almost all of it back.
Pretty much exactly what I have said I expect from kblb.
The good info from that is they announced the RS on sep 27th and announced the uplist on oct 10.
This tells me that pre-applying can be done.
They have no warning on the RS so we cant tell how long they were planning this but looks like 2-3weeks for the minimum time between actions
The bump up was from a positive clinical trial news which would be about the same as Kim signing a deal following an uplist.
It will be interesting to revisit this stock in a year to see if it still exists.
Average increase for a "sucessful" nasdaq uplist after 1 year is a 70% increase.
Well I cant say I ever saw an OTC stock succeed in a RS and uplist that was still listed a year later.
The closest I have seen was ACTC.
Mostly based on a 5 year old memory so some could be off.
They announced a RS of a 1:100 "if needed" to uplist.
They were fast tracked.
At the time of announcement I believe the pps was about $.40 I think.
The price bleeds down to .04 over the period before the RS deadline.
Just before the RS deadline they cancled the RS.
The PPS spiked back up but only to .28 or so.
And then faded down regardless of good trial results and tons of financing and good PR to around .06
The drop was because they were burning through financing.
Then they did a 1:100 RS without much notice.
Opens at $6.xx and started down.
Never made the nasdaq. CEO fired. Laws suits.
I think they were bought out at around $2 ..0.02 (presplit).
They were legit. The tech is still being worked on after being sold a couple times.
Most of the issue was bad financing deals with convertible warrant/dilution and very bad money management. They did have promise though.
Alot like KBLB but Kim is much more frugal.
Only successful RS I see are big board stocks that are in a rut and use it to maintain exchange listing requirements
I intend to be a member of the first successful OTC uplist (I have seen) with Kim
As far as valuation goes i feel like as soon as Kim makes a delivery the fundamentals will take over. I suck at that anyalisis.
IMO no matter what the split we get a drop before correction.
The size of the split and amount of the drop are related.
So is the correction.
My point was that after the split Kim has to account for that drop.
Right now a 1:20 would work.
But the corresponding drop would drop below thel8mit.
So today he could do a 1:30. The drop following it "should" keep above the limit.
But because the success rates of uplist the market will expect a drop. A shorter can easily oversell the stock because every penny down reassures the market of a fail.
So IMO kim would be very wise to split at 40.
He is at double the limit. Very hard to short down 50% even with a RS.
He also has an extremely small float.
Any good news will have a fantastic reaction.
So he RSs to $8 drops to $6 and bounces to $7.
Then releases the great news that people want.
The reaction pushes the pps to the $30 range.
Corrects in the high $20s
Kim has a 10m share float. He can dilute 20% of the float. Finance with $50 million. And the reaction would be less than a $5 drop at worst.
We are sitting at low to mid $20s with 50m in debt free financing and no future dilution expectations.
With a 20+ PPS the stock will be institutionally bought in large quantities.
Could see $50 by end of 2020 and a $65 buyout.
But he needs the larger RS and the uplist
ALL JMO
Fact is I still stand by my statements.
A 1:10 would be a good thing.
It would be a disaster today.
But Kim isnt stupid. The ONLY reason he would to a 1:10 is if the pps is stable at .41+
That is not going to happen.
He is either giving blockbuster info to get this to spike up to a dollar and fade back to. 41 which takes months.
Or the simple spike to .50 again will only fade to .30.
No matter what happens if a 1:10 it done it will be a good thing because Kim isnt stupid enough to do a 1:10 when he needs a 1:30 or more.
And he needs a 1:30 or more.
Announcing a 1:10 today would be a disaster simply because it would show the CEO as a moron.
August warrants... how exactly is that financing without dilution?
Question: if you hold a warrant to buy 1000 shares at .22 that will expire in 2021and kim does a 1:10 RS the PPS is now $2.
Do the warrants become only 100 shares at $2.20 or do they still get 1000 at .22?
No an MOU is not a contract. There is not a requirement to announce everyone you have an understanding with.
An MOU is not a material event.
So all you "potential news" is potentially not news.
It's called an assumption.
1) I am sure there are dozens of potential name brands.
But I also know that a name brand contract will get them sued if they cant supply the product. Yeah they are making silk.
And Kim's estimated 4 tons will never be enough for samples and a name brand contract.
Name brand contract in year 2 of production seems more likely.
2) financing...
I have asked a few times now and have yet to hear any explanation for how to get financing without dilution.
Dilution free financing would be huge but I have never heard of such a thing.
3) first big delivery will not be announced this year.
This batch is all breeders.
In 45 days he will have his first batch of unpeeled silk.
Mid december maybe.
Revelers will take a few weeks.
No way he ships a sale this year.
4) same as 1.
5) yup this could happen. I am not holding my breath for Kim to just give away millions of dollars. But that's just me.
6) same as 1
7l this is my preferred situation.
I would like to see all VN silk to be DS and collect a royalty while developing new products
8) a 1:10 would be a disaster. We would have a $2 and dropping. Investor confidence in an uplist would evaporate and the pps would crash to the 52 week low or lower
The rest is pretty much fluff and dreams.
There wont be a buy out till there are fundamentals. A name change and documentary would be a short lived bump.
More countries would be good but I would expect Kim to want to make money before spending millions on a second location now.
JMO
I also have no idea if they can apply in advance but I disagree that Kim or nasdaq "know" that we can get the pps.
Especially if the theory of a 1:20 is true.
We cant hold the minimum at a 1:20 ...yet.
That could change.
I dont see how you can apply without meeting requirements though. That would be a lot of work wasted for all the applications that wont meet requirements.
Curious if you ever looked at the shortest time between a company announcing a plan to uplist and actually uplisting.
ACTC is one I can think of. It was "fast tracked" and still took like 5 or 6 months if I remember right
Never said it did. I asked "what if" because not all financing is good news
Well if true it's either a good guess, priced in already, or you have inside information.
I dont ever listen to rumors. Until there is proof supplied this can only be an assumption. No matter how much I wish it to be true.
And honestly if he has news like that he has only a short time to release it or hes violating material information news and committing stock manipulation which I dont think he is doing.
JMO
They are not required to announce a uplist plan.
They could just uplist.
Same applies to a split. They could just do it and announce when it happens.
There are also restrictions on companies that reverse merge to get there. I am trying to see if the "season period" applies to reverse splits. It's a hard question to answer.
But I think we both agree that as of today we do not meet listing requirements.
The day we do get that pps we can apply for the listing.
That means the RS must be completed before application.
The day its finalized Kim can apply.
Then...
I get what's going on just fine. Kim is keeping us pretty well informed.
We are all allowed our opinions.
My opinion is simple. .30 will never be seen again.
And then 25 was the bottom.
Then the teens are gone forever.
Then 16 it the botton.
In the mean time the market doesnt really care. It does what it wants based on mob mentality.
And mobs are stupid.
The market is what I base my opinion on. You hope you are right and look at the bright side. I dont think you are wrong.
But I dont think you are the market.
I think the market disagrees with you.
It's really that simple.
When kim announced the RS a drop will happen because the market always drops on a RS as a rule.
A pps pushes to it's old price following any split.
With a FS the pps will climb and then correct.
With a RS it drops.
Then the market corrects itself.
When that expected drop happens there is a horde of people that will push that pps down as low as possible to profit on correction.
All the people who bad mouth a RS are the ones who will cause the drop.
They will "bail out". That's panic selling.
That is what will decide the bottom.
And there is nothing wrong with it unless you must maintain a pps and do too small of a split.
Dropping .001 under $4 will lose the confidence of the risk takers.
That is a priority.
And could you explain financing without dilution? Excluding direct credit and collateral I dont know any form of financing where a piece of the peo isnt involved
I think the difference in opinion is you are relying on Kim's reactons and I am relying on the markets reactions.
The market always over reacts.
The CEO doesnt always get the damage mitigated.
But honestly do you see an uplis happening by thanksgiving no matter what happens?
If dupont signed a contract for 2000 tons our pps would rocket well over nasdaq standards.
Kim could have the application in today. And there is no way they get upliste in 3 weeks.
And that isnt happening. We are working much more conventionally. It will take longer
Financing can definitely be a stimulant.
But tell me if you think Kim announcing a new deal with CSC would move the pps up or down following the RS?
Financing requires dilution.
So it isnt really financing as much as who and how financing is being done that would be a stimulator suppressant.
Debt forgiveness by Kim wont do it imo.
Uplist and RS will not happen simultaneously.
They cant.
A RS to get a qualifying price must happen before you can qualify.
Then a few weeks of processing till the D is removed and then they can apply.
That application process needs at least a couple weeks if not months.
The RS must be announced before it happens.
And I believe that applying for an uplist would be announced as well.
The pps drop will be caused by the actual RS.
The market WILL react and shorters and MMs will exploit that fear and get the stock oversold.
It's important to understand I am not doom and glooming. The drop should be expected and short lived.
The reason behind the RS in the next 2 weeks is to try to be on the nasdaq at the beginning of next year.
My estimations are nov 15 for RS with a ex date of Nov 30.
About 2 weeks to finish processing so D removed around dec 15.
Uplist PR between dec 1 and dec 20 with "expected uplist" by end of jan.
First delivery to reeler PR around dec 15
First batch delivered in mid jan.
Contract by end feb.
First sale of 1-2 tons in march/april with same amount every 2 months for the first year
That .05 gain was a bottom.
Today a 1-40 would give us 8 bucks.
I think a 1:40 would would produce a $5 bottom about a .125 pps today.
That's probably extreme but you know how we can get very fast extreme drops that only last a few min... one of those.
I'm not being conservative IMO
People expecting uplist and RS to happen all at once and in a 1 or 2 week period are overexpecting.
They are the people who will cause the market overreaction when expectations dont match reality.
I could be wrong but that will just react backwards to my expectations
I would say a bit higher than that but could easily touch that area as a bottom.
The bottom here is all that matters Bob.
We all want the joy of the pps after uplist and revs. But only the bottom is important.
We can sit pretty with a 20 buck price. But we cant uplist without the minimum.
So bottom of $5 is about right. I think Kim has us buffered to protect the minimum.
That bottom will come either the week after the Ex date is given or in the first few days of being able to trade again.
From there it should be nothing but up.
$16-24 post split after a month or so
Trying to fight?
Please enlighten me to the advancements made in the court case?
Who would it be?
Ron Potts the person with controlling interest
My answer would be if he did that he knows he would need to announce the RS twice. We would be told that the uplist requires a change to 1:40 since the pps dropped below the uplist threshold.
Instead kim estimated the reaction of the market to the RS.
He put out a variable ratio to inform us of the 1:40 and put a lower variable to ease that reaction and let some feel like it wont be 1:40.
That would reduce the market effect a bit.
It worked out quite well. Pps dropped to the middle of the road on RS price needed.
He knows any ratio when announced will also drop the price a little.
If that price drop gives us a post split price that doesnt qualify for an uplist the market would react very negitive and the pps would crash.
Kim cant afford to have the market think he is just a stinky pink that will RS and dilute to death.
He already has to do exactly that with out the death.
He has to make sure we all know hes being legit about the uplist
Always a backdoor with every ceo on the stock exchange.
That's why every single one of them has a forward looking statement disclaimer on every PR.
Because saying "will" can get you into trouble
Hope can you give me any logical example of why any CEO would want a pps lower?
Intentionally lowering the pps would be a breech of his duties and stock manipulation.
I dont see it.
I see a company with no real revenue as being extremely over valued at near a half a billion dollars.
Kim need a RS in order to get conventional financing.
He is using the RS properly.
IMO the only "flaw" would be the variable in ratio. That seems to me like Kim trying to save the pps from too big a drop by giving hope it will be smaller.
The RS will be at 1:40 to get the highest price and therefore the largest cushion.
It would be a disaster for Kim to do a 1:20 and get a pps of 3.98 and dropping. It would blow investor confidence in an uplist.
With impending production I dont see this getting below a dime for anything.
A 1:40 sit kim comfortable in an uplist position and a very minimum of dilution for financing
Please show me in the agreement where they must win in court.
Here is a fact...
Can you not understand what you are reading?
"Nio-Star has closed on the financing previously announced in its news release of June 29, 2017 by concluding definitive agreements with RP Capital Group Inc."
Do you know the meaning of concluded and closed?
You think when escrow "closes" on a home you still didnt get it?
At the conclusion of a story it isnt over?
Dan got his money.
Coincidently just about the exact amount he needed.
Then he "defaulted" and let Potts take the asset control.
Effectively selling it without screwing the shareholders legally.
Potts has 51% ownership and can now do anything he wants with the land and shareholder can do nothing about it.
So Dan saying he met them isnt proof he met them?
And I didnt say you were wrong I just gave you the 2 possibilities and let you choose.
They cant both be right
I going to just tell you that you are wrong but I will just give you a choice.
Are you wrong or is Dan just a flat out liar?
They have a signed contract.
You dont sign one unless you get what's in it.
Dan got the money from Potts and bailed out.
This ended just as predicted with the asset being sold out from under the investors.
Someday the stock will change hands and a new scam will begin
A Walmart contract seems like a great thing for a company, but it can also be the worst thing as well.
Walmart has put many companies out of business when they were unable to maintain a supply and breech the contract because they were not ready for the big leagues.
Kim is not ready for a household name.
Jmo
By far a RS is a bad thing but mostly that is because of the reason.
Most RS are a last ditch effort of a dying company and the split doesnt save them.
Successful RS like Xerox, Citi, etrade, Motorola, AIG, and Priceline worked well.
This is mostly because they moved their pps from a single digit dollar to a double digit share price and it opened them to larger institutions to trade.
Well personally I am sitting down at the .08-.12 area waiting.
Not because I dont trust Kim but I dont trust the market not to over react.
There are things Kim has stated that broke the assumptions of the market. That could have a fairly large impact with the price in the short term.
I am trying to figure out what he can say that will counter that and coming up empty.
The Army making a contract would do it I think.
But I dont think an apparel contract will
Anything over .20 IMO.
The PPS will lose about 25-50% from the announcement.
It will gain a little back before the split and drop a little the week it becomes tradable again then it should level out slightly below .20 (presplit)again.
From there it should climb but it's all up to what Kim's next move is.
If he dilutes immeadatly after the RS the pps will fall.
If he has a good news PR it should jump up and begin a long slow uptrend
JMO
Here is one I like to reference be cause it explains how things like something as simple as head movement of a worm decides the quality of the silk and how temperature etc can effect how a worms head moves. Info on weight on page 121
https://books.google.com/books?id=A8U1lmEGEdgC&pg=PA121&dq=silk+cocoon+weight&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiByOLa5MTlAhUTLX0KHWNHA6gQ6AEIJTAB#v=onepage&q=silk cocoon weight&f=false
This one has more of a breakdown of the shell which is the portion reeled.
.3-.5g per cocoon so you were likely closer than me. 2-3 million bivoltine worms needed. I believe kim is using a bivoltine strain.
https://books.google.com/books?id=uazuq583eDoC&pg=PA14&dq=silk+cocoon+weight&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiByOLa5MTlAhUTLX0KHWNHA6gQ6AEIHTAA#v=onepage&q=silk cocoon weight&f=false
Pretty much agree.
I expect an uncounted (but more than expected) amount of silk being sent to a reeler as the next PR.
I also expect the RS notice in the same time period.
Guessing it will come in that order. Something to bump it up and the RS to bring it back.
Then we can actually start looking for fundamentals to begin forming as our production begins to be monetized
I am trying to find the sericulture book I originally referenced years ago on the subject.
They had length weight etc broken down based on diet humidity temperature and food.
It's really amazing how a couple of degrees can totally change the yield and quality of the fiber.
If I remember right the weight was around 3 grams with 2 grams accounting for the worm and internal/external silk that is not used for fabrics.
The outcome was between .5 and 1 gram of silk with an average length of 1100 feet of fiber. All from memory so I could be off a bit. But 2m worms to a ton was pretty typical of the max required
Ray what are you basing your number on?
From what figures I came up with there is between .5 and 1 gram of silk in a cocoon (commercial sized)
That's 1-2 million per ton.
It's a hard figure to come up with because various places have different size worms and the habitats can increase or decrease yield
Yes and has that ever really been an issue here?
Kim has not increased the OS by 100% in 12 years.
Dilution sucks but it's necessary as long as it's done with respect to the stock holder it's not an issue.
NOTHING indicates that Kim doing a RS is so he can just dilute.
That is what people on the OTC are accustomed to but just because it's common doesnt mean it is intended
Why would a value neutral split be devastating for shareholders?
I understand a short term holder would take a hit. But unless you assume a scam there is no reason to believe it would be bad.
Why do you think scams use the RS and uplist ploy?
Because it's a good thing if the intent is good.
So it just comes down to a matter of trust.
If you think Kim is a con man then a RS will be horrible for the investor.
But if you think Kim is legit the RS and uplist will lead to financing and expansion abilities and will be fantastic.
The RS on it's own is nothing.
Investors lose nothing.
Doubt it is even millions yet Red.
He could have billions but it would a waste.
I am sure the population was kept very small during the initial stages.
What breeding was being done was simply for the purpose of GMO acceptance.
Once they were given the full greenlight I would expect every cocoon to be tested and only a few go forward for breeding.
The protocols in place will probably have a 90% rejection rate or higher until the entire breeding population is very similar in properties. Then Kim can produce a few million eggs by letting an entire batch of tested adults produce a 100 ton supply of eggs from a single generation of mixed parents.
It will keep things very consistent that way.
JMO
Would like to see a first ton reeled by EOY and I will be happy
Explain how forgiving debt equals operating expenses?
Kim can forgive his debt and he still needs financing.
His shares are not enough collateral to borrow squat.
I would not loan Kim the millions he needs with shares as collateral.
If he succeeds you get your money and if he doesnt succeed your collateral is worthless.
Shares with a value history built on year after year fundamentals can be borrowed against.
OTC stocks with a 6 month price history and no fundamentals is not collateral its risk.