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Good call, Wahz!
(And having faith in yourself which is even more important)
I never bookmark, but I kept reading your thread...
Huluriasquias.
(I don't want to jinx you so I won't tell you what my system says for tomorrow. Oooops, I think I just did!) <vbg>
Ahhhh... to be able to be so cocksure <vbg>
I went heavily into Rydex -2xNDX (Venture) for tomorrow, but I'm (literarily) quacking in my boots.
Huluriasquias.
QQQ Volume:
Period 9:30-11:30 --> +25% than yesterday in the same period.
Period 11:30-13:30 --> +138% than yesterday in the same period.
Yesterday's volume was around +15% over the average of the last 2 weeks. (And the highest of the last 4 weeks --Eyeball method)
Huluriasquias.
Same difference! <g>
Prediction?
Mutis mutandis!
I thought you never predicted... <bg>
I saw your question, but I didn't quite understand it, because QQQ volume looked VERY normal to me.
Yesterday's QQQ volume was just under 60 mil. which is smack in the middle of the volumes of the last 10, 15 sessions.
QQQ's volume today compared to yesterday was +13.5% in the period 9:30-11:30, and -25% in the period 11:30-13:30.
Accumulated for the day so far: -4.5% compared to same time yesterday. (at 1:45)
Very much within the parameters of an average, boring day. (volume-wise)
Hope this helps.
Sorry to barge in...
I have no experience with "about to go BK" companies, but I'm quite proficient at making errors. <g>
I've learned, (after many years of paying tuition) that the best policy in a case like yours is to cut loses right away, and move on to the next trade.
If you stay around waiting for a potential bounce you only expose yourself to further loses. If you exit this trade you'll feel yourself "free", (although a few dollars poorer, of course) and will be able to face a new trade with a clearer mind.
(Again: I don't know anything about this stock's particular circunstances)
Hope this helps.
Huluriasquias.
These coming 2 weeks are going to be "interesting times". (In the sense of the old chinese curse <ng>)
FWIW my system gave me a "green" signal for tomorrow, (first green in a while) but I overruled it, (considering that the greatest risk is still "down") and I'm mildy short for tomorrow.
(But I'm open to go hog-long if we touch 1220, or whereabouts)
Mish considers that QQQ 25 might now be a strong ceiling, as there has been quite a grow of calls at that strike price.
Let's wait and see.
Huluriasquias.
Hey, Zeev. How is life within the chimney? <g>
Do you see anything for today and/or tomorrow?
TIA.
(INTC and SUNW close to HOD. Big effort to raise the NDX)
Of course!
You only have to present a claim, and they pay you triple indemnity within a week. <g>
I bet Buffet has already a contingency plan in case the earth is split in two by a giant meteorite... <ng>
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I don't think capturing Al Queda members is bullish. The cells may have a plan to attack if anything happens to the ring members.
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I don't know about bullish or bearish. But every time somebody high enough is captured the rest of the members have no way to know who has been compromised and who hasn't.
That makes for growing distrust, and to carefully consider any further move. They need to make time past before they feel confident again.
OK. The PPT just closed the gap in all indices.
Now we can melt.
(Q: After today is there anybody that doesn't believe in the PPT? --I know I'm preaching to the choir!)
IN EDIT: Oh, Osana's son was captured, well maybe there's no PPT after all... <g>
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Niles did his job. He pumped the stock prior to the update so everyone could distribute their shares. Niles is a weasel.
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Just business as usual in Wall Street. <ng>
Kevin,
hk2 gave you the right answer, it's the only way that I know of to short inside an IRA.
Another advantage is $0 comission if you stay within the same fund family. (which I do)
Daily trading of Dynamic funds outside an IRA account is hairy, as every move(even switches within families) generate a taxable transaction.
I programmed the system myself. The idea is original but influenced by things I read around.
I knew that the cat (Shroedinger's) had something to do with it...
LOL
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(0) it was NOT me who did work with fractals...also i never had any website...so, whose work are you referring to here?
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There was somebody about 6 months ago publishing simplified intra-day charts of what was expected for the day either in Zeev's or in LG's board, I think. For some reason I identified you as that person. (Maybe his SI handle was exp. I need to do further research....)
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(1) i wonder if being in the market every day is optimal since on many days the probabilities of up/down are very close to 50/50 (unless your signals are quite definite or you are riding a trend)
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I thought the same thing, but I concluded that 50/50 are still "good" odds <g> so I follow the signal even if the strenght is minimal. (Maybe because I'm a gambler at heart? <g>)
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(2) position size as % of acct is really key imo...a very very difficult math/stat problem though...any more info from you would be great as it often determines the level of trading success
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Do you have any method that you follow? I'm thinking about explaining mine in detail in case people trading Dynamic Funds might benefit, but it usually takes me several days to prepare something like that.
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(3) this "smoothed-out" cash flow model closely corresponds to your results:
.....................
Note that your gains were in the 10-11% range every month
.....................
this translates into 200-250% annual gain which is very very impressive imo..congrats...
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Yeah, well. Thanks. I think that your initial question was the right one: "What actual % did your system yield in the last one (or three) years?" The numbers I gave you were approx. anyway, and my own calculations give 7%-8% per month as more likely. The problem is that we are taking into account only the last 7 months, (which were far better than the previous 7) and extrapolate from there. I'll be very happy if it can keep this performance for a year, or better still three.
My main concern is that even if the yield looks quite good, I can go bust easily if a 3-sigma event (not need for 6-sigma here) catches me on the "wrong" side of the trade. In fact I developed position size management as a response to one of such events that happened in May 8th 2002: NDX went up 10% in one day and I was caught 200% short. I lost 20% of my account that day, and it took me 2 1/2 months to get it back. (not counting the cash-outs. It took way longer taking them into account)
Huluriasquias.
PS: How questions are worded is very important in surveys. There's a big difference between:
Q: How many times do you do it (w/ your wife, significant, other, etc) per week?
A: Three.
Q: How many times did you do it the last 7 days?
A: Mmmnnnn. None? <g>
It would give me some peace of mind, but in the meanwhile I must go where the money is...
For today I have a close in the Red, and I'm exposed 160% in RYVNX fund. ( -2x NDX)
"exposed 160%" means: "less than the RYVNX 200% full exposure" That corresponds approx. to 75% RYVNX and 25% cash, which is medium exposure for me.
BTW: My original system is giving me a Green close, but I'm now following the "Reversed" version...
Sure, George, I'd love to.
(BTW: I saw, and respected, your work with fractals when your site was public, and I recognized right away that we were doing similar things, at least in concept, if by different means: You seem to concentrate in inflexion points, I find samplings easier to do)
I'll answer the questions quickly before I go to sleep, and I'll answer any follow up questions tomorrow.
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(1) does your system give you a signal every day, i.e. do you trade every day?
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Yes. I'm always in the market. Every day at around 15:50 ET it tells me go go long or short for the next day. (The definitive signal is given at 16:00, but at that time it's too late to trade. The 15:50 signal is identical to the 16:00 signal most of the times)
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(2) do you invest 100% of your acct every time you trade?
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No. I found out (the hard way) that investing 100% in a 2x fund is self defeating. I've been using a "modulation" system (inspired by Zeev's "Cash %") since last August with excellent results: the subsequent yield improved quite a bit, and that was the only significant change at that time. (I can elaborate more later if you want)
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(3) was your total gain 100% or more in 2001 or 2002 using your system?
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<watch me squirm...> <g>
I started over a year ago but I lost money at the beginning. I keep testing new things and fine tuning others.
Since last August (when I started adding "modulation") I've been doing a quite consistent 7% to 10% a month. (with some outliers, of course) It's not easy to calculate gains because I take a considerable % (around 7% monthly) of the principal out of the account for living expenses, and not always the same amount, and not at exact intervals.
Let's say that the value of the account today is 20% larger than in August 1st 2002, and in the interim I took out of the account slightly more than 50% of today's value.
I concede that it needs more time to prove itself statistically viable. (i.e. these results could be a fluke)
Time to go to sleep now.
Huluriasquias.
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Worse, it would have worked better for about 6 weeks or more now, to sell when my indicator goes green and buy when it goes red. I recognized this almost immediately when this whipsawing started, so I am doing ok, but this is insane, and unusual.
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If it makes you feel any better the same thing happened to me.
I've been trading Rydex 2xNaz & -2xNaz (Velocity & Venture) for over a year and a half using a propietary system that takes into account intra-day price and volume patterns of the QQQ and compares to past patterns to make a statistical prediction just before the close of each day.
It used to yield a predictive value of between 60% and 70% which I consider "pretty good". Now suddenly it stopped "working" on Jan 3rd 2003, (and it was THAT abrupt)and not only that, but it reversed itself, and now I'm getting 80% accuracy but by doing exactly the opposite. (Negative correlation)
This never happened before, and it really baffled me. I'm making money again as the "inverse" correlation is even better than before, but now I have no theorical explanation as why it works that way.
As my sample space is only the last 2 years (a nasty bear market) I assumed that something changed this January, and I'm speculating that might be that the market shifted into a budding bull , and that's why the results reversed themselves. (I doubt it, this doesn't look like a baby bull to me...) Or maybe now there's blatant intervention by the PPT... Who knows...
Anyway. I hope you get some solace from the fact that you are not alone, (it did help me) and let's keep on trying to extract some money from this market...
Huluriasquias
PS: BTW, I thing that whipsawing has nothing to do with it. My system used to work best in ranged markets, and no so good in trending ones.
Great Chart! <vbg>
I think I'm finally starting to understand e-wave...
Hey, I forgot to mention that if it helps me make money I'll embrace it wholeheartedly<g>
Larry, this time I don't agree with you...
I think a mob of leaders is still a mob.
The reason we value Zeev, ajtj, whaz, mlsoft, LG, Velo, shack, mishedlo, augie, was Jeff, and several others is for their ability to stand out at certain moments, and state a position (usually) contrary to current perception, and make a strong case for it. (That's why I call them leaders)
Any poll of 100 people (even leaders) will give you a lagging indication of sentiment, nothing more.
Maybe it would be fine if you hand-pick let's say 10 leaders, and put in a table their names, and their current thoughts about the market, but that is very subjective, and a lot of work to keep it updated.
(By the way that's what I do when I read these boards, but I do it all in my head)
(Names are important as every one has his own idiosyncrasies, diverse strengths, and different track records --and sometimes they are hot, and sometimes they are not)
Besides, it's not the same to give zeev's last "to the hills" call a value of "-1", and ajtj's last tentative bullish stance with a tight stop a value of "+1".
They cancel each other in your system, but have quite different weights.
I have learn that ignoring zeev's "to the hills" calls brings great financial peril, while I understood perfectly that atjt was just testing the waters, and reversed himself inmediately when it didn't pan out.
I greatly enjoy your work, and many times your "finds" were inspirational, (another word for plagiarism <g>) and were incorporated to my own systems.
Keep on your excellent work, just don't feel bad if not many people share your enthusiasm in this new index.
Huluriasquias.
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Isn't the future now an indication of were how they will open tomorrow ?
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That's the pristine theory.
The corrupt reality is that futures are heavily manipulated...
<I really am blind like a bat in a chimney>
It eases my worries to find myself in so august company! <g>
Keep on the good work!
They are trying to lift the whole market by jamming INTC.
Will they succeed?...
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Anyone just see that spike in the Naz?? What was that??
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Bad data in MSFT and INTC at the same time.
Mmmnnnnn.....
I tell them I do software for investments. (The part I don't tell them is that I use it mostly myself...)
If you don't know much about computers you can say that you design, and test strategies for investing.
H.
I hate to be a "storm crow" but I believe there's a very high possibility that any attack on Iraq will be shortly followed by several serious terrorrist attacks.
One of them that succeeds and the american people confidence (and the market) will come tumbling down.
Chances are this will not be a "video game" war. Remember that Al Qaeda's objetives are economical, and not military.
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The key, IMO, is to use Zeev's information as input to one's own models and thought processes. Otherwise we won't grow as traders and investors. After all, our trading and investment decisions are our responsibility.
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Amen. Amen. Amen!
We are still 2 weeks and change away from MaxPain...
Thank you, GT.
I now see that CNN has scheduled Powell address from 10:30am ET to 2:00pm.
It seems that it's going to be a long (and possibly tedious) affair...
Anybody knows at what time is Powell's presentation tomorrow?
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its part of the wealth managment program of merrill
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yeah, their own wealth! <g>
BTW: thank you for bringing it up. I'm kind of enraged, but also in awe at the utter simplicity of it.
It's a scam!
If I read it correctly you pay $10 for each note and its value at maturity (March 2005) is $10 times 3 times the % change of the NDX.
So far so good. But while if the NDX goes down your risk is most of your investment, if it goes up they don't pay you more than $14.20 per note.
That's +42% divided by 3 (it's 3 times NDX) that's +14% in 2 years and change, let's say +6% a year.
So if the NDX goes up more than 6% a year in in the next 2 years you are capped! (But if it goes down you are screwed...)
This is so leonine that Merril can hedge this instrument at a minimum cost, and pocket most of the proceeds with no risk whatsoever.
I pity the poor souls who are going to be offered this!
If you open an account at Rydex the cut-off times are 10:30am and 3:55pm.
"In Edit" are comments added after the original message was posted. (as opposed to creating a new message)
Big delays at Rydex for the 10:30 cut-off deadline. (I was only doing some fine tuning, as luckly I was 70% short)
I take the QQQ action between the 10:30 cut-off and the 10:45 pricing of the Rydex Dynamic funds as an indication of where the Rydex crowd is going. It looks like a mild "buy the dip" action, at least for the first 5 minutes. (In Edit: not anymore is dropping now fast with 5 minutes still to go)
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The mutual fund quote shown today during market hours, reflects the closing price from yesterday I take it? So if true, there's really no way for me to know if its up or down (or at least by how much anyway) during the trading session.....?
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Correct.
You can always find a "proxy" to guess how much up or down is going to close at the end of the trading session.