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And I see you are still resort to childish name calling, DC. "Bagholder", whatever, is that because you can't spell "goo goo"?
Since you obsessed with my position in BLLN, I'll share that it has been gradually carved down to 604,000 shares, give or take, at a cost basis now around 0.066. It really doesn't matter to me- after the failed launch I wrote the issue down to worthless, and if it ever comes back it will be like a windfall- "found money" really.
Qurious is absolutely correct, of course- this discussion has no business being in these boards, distracting the adults who are in here with a purpose as well as contributions. I've been reminded that you post like child and see you aren't man enough to back your accusations with cold, hard cash. Another brave boy hiding behind his keyboard, what a shocker. I'm done with you now (again, lest I sound the hypocrite), my apologies to other board participants for this sordid exchange...
No, Dogcat, I'm just trying to help you learn the difference between gambling and investing. And I'm a homophobe? Sure, whatever, ad hominems are for children. But if it makes you feel better, I don't "not like you", just your unending pleas for "inside" information, and your confusion between negativity and reality.
And since you seem to doubt my bona fides, put your money where your mouth is- I'll wager $5,000 everything I offered in personal details is true, and I provide concrete evidence as to same. You pick an attorney of your choice to serve as escrow and arbiter, we both put our cash in, and if I am lying you're up $5 grand. Please take me up on this, if you have the sack. I need some gains to offset my paper losses.
One more thing Doggie- should you ever be blessed with children of your own, you'll NEVER again ask as clueless a question as to why a parent (with a 1.5 year old) would be up at 3:30 in the morning. Geesh...
GTD
/tirade on
Hi again, Dogcat. I promised to ignore you and I am breaking that promise now, my apologies to all offended.
Would you mind doing your own due diligence rather than begging here for "inside" information. After 20 or so similar posts it gets tiring, "buddy". Yeah, I remember how frustrated I was when I first was losing my shirt on pinkie stocks when folks would say knowingly "buckle your seatbelts" and I wondered what they were talking about, but hey, I want to spare you the pain.
Seriously, when Dad finds out you squandered his cash on BLLN without having any idea what you were doing he is going to be PISSED. AVDI will be there to help you out, so it ain't all bad. He thinks you're funny, and assuming you're both of age, maybe there is some potential there. Lemonade from lemons you know...
All humor aside, instead of begging for info, why not work it instead? It is a digital world you know. I've got a business I own, employees who depend on me for payroll, a wife and two boys, and I find time to do DD. What is your excuse?
By the way, should you consider this a "personal" slam, all I can say is this-
Drink Deschutes beer (Oregon)
Drink Boundary Bay beer (Washington)
Drink Stone<any IPA will work> (California)...
(and if you can't find any of those locally, find a local brewer that kicks ass and report back to us.)
...before you make any insipid comments about the <imagined> superiority of Heineken, Becks, or whatever euro-swill you think is good. Geesh boy, you've go a lotta' learnin' do to, and believe me, alcohol and gambling, errrr, investing, go hand in hand... When you think you're read, we can discuss single malt and small batch...
/tirade off, folks
GTD
Simply supply & demand.
Try to sell a big mess of BLLN at market and you'll see what I mean- you'll see fills below 0.04 in a hurry (and no, I don't have level 2 access).
Sorry lucky, but even considering the differences between trading pinkies and investing in larger companies, today's movement coupled with $25,000 in volume ranks as insignificant.
Yeah, better than an 11% loss I suppose, but nothing that means much to me at least.
Indeed they are. As is the concept of acquiring an entire "album".
Mine's broken too. Can't play any downloaded music.
I will revisit the page then.
Last time (last week or week before), couldn't d/l anything. Glad to hear its spooling up.
~gtd
Thanks for the link, Treo. I read that earlier as well.
I agree with much of what you wrote until we get to this-
if apple comes out with one price for everythimg deal, the major labels will have a guaranteed income from itunes, so any othere model will complement itunes rather than working against it
My concern is this may not be the case. The revenue from the current iTunes model is reasonably static and predictable, not "guaranteed" in a traditional sense, but certainly predictable within reasonable parameters. The "one price" deal really doesn't necessarily offer any more of a "guarantee" from my perspective. Especially considering it is an "opt in" decision for the consumer. I guess I am saying I don't see why the labels would perceive legitimate P2P options as any less cannibalizing if APPL rolls out 1-price. I do think the industry is going to have to accept some form of p2p as it is "inevitable", hence my non-abandoning of BLLN, so perhaps they do see it your way.
My other concern about the one price scheme as it could affect BLLN is that consumers who choose this have proven with their pocketbooks they don't want to watch advertising or deal with converting to iPod formats. I don't disagree that the European/Asian markets are less iTunes-centric than in US, which stands to potentially benefit Qtrax (but I do take exception to the 2% market penetration of the iPod suggested by another).
Anyway, thanks for reminding me of that post.
~gtd
Wow- it is REALLY children's hour in here.
Well, I did pull the 70% figure out of the clear air, I admit.
Lets try it this way- assuming the sales chart here- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPod
is correct, why not assume that EVERY iPod sold through Q2 2006 is out of commission. Based on that chart, I'd say 48 million goners is a good estimate. (and I think we both agree it is way conservative- I have two pre 2006 iPods working fine, one with a new battery (and two post) myself).
Now, let's say 95% of Q2/2006 to present are in operation. That total would be 87.4 million. Extrapolating that as 2% suggests a market of 4.37 billion.
Given the gray market for real cheapo mp3 players, I somewhat doubt anyone knows the true number, or Apple's marketshare, but I think 2% is likely off by a multiple of 500% or even more.
Who knows, anyway, back to work for me now.
By the way, do you have an iPod Touch. So sweet!
~gtd
You couldn't have proved my point more effectively if you tried, Dogcat, thank you.
Now, let's just ignore each other from here on out, ok? I'll start!
qurious-
You believe that ipods represent 2% of the global "mp3 player" market?
Let's try the math:
Over 140,000,000 iPods have been sold. Let's assume 70% are still in operation-
140,000,000 X 70% = 98,000,000 players.
If 98,000,000 represents 2% of the market, that means there are 4.9 BILLION mp3 players out there.
Given that the population of planet earth is around 6.5 billion, and over 3 Billion live in poverty (living on less than $2/day), I think the 2% figure proves to be a tad bogus, don't you?
Good question, GoQtrax, I can't find it.
I don't have the time to check Edgar to see if the 10k shines any light on this, but Apple has told us that over 150 million iPods have been sold, something like 2 BILLION songs have been purchased, and iTunes represented 6% of ALL music sold in any form in the US (in 2006).
Like you, I'd like more detailed information on Euro/UK sales.
~gtd
I hear what you are saying, and I believe that there is pent up demand for "free" music in the US from folks who "don't want to be pirates".
As for the international markets where property rights are much less protected and attitudes about the "freeness" of music are far more liberal than in the US, I wonder why folks would bother themselves watching commercials to get music that may have some type of limited lifespan (qtrax has hedged on this, at least last time I was trying to understand it). Sort of a double whammy.
Universal's business is hardly US-centric though, they've the largest share in the world, over a fourth, at least in the most recent numbers I could find (2005). Here are the worldwide market shares, based on legal distribution, fwiw:
Universal 25.5%
Warner 11.3%
EMI 13.4%
Sony 21.5%
Independents 28.4%
Source- http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Warner_Music_Group_(WMG)
~gtd
Dogcat, shouldn't you quit gambling with Daddy's money in here, at least until you learn the difference between "lose" and "loose", and figure out how to do YOUR OWN due diligence rather than post juvenile nonsense.
And, while I loathe doing work you are either too lazy or incapable of doing yourself, in the spirit of sympathy, here is the answer to your question-
iTunes music store number one in the UK with 80 Percent market share.
M2 Presswire, September, 2005
"Apple today announced that the iTunes Music Store is the number one digital music service in the UK with 80 percent market share of digital sales, according to the Official Charts Company (OCC)."
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5243/is_200509/ai_n19858813
GoQ said-
"groverdog, just remember that iTunes is pretty much a US (with some European exposure) product. Qtrax is planned to be an international one."
That is interesting. I haven't been able to ferret out how iTunes stacks up against European and Asian competition. I do remember that, I think it was 2005, iTunes was the number one digital provider in the UK.
Do you have a link showing iTunes international penetration?
~gtd
Liquidated.
Done.
History.
Finished.
Kaput.
Worthless
etc.
That is my estimation of what happens to Qtrax in terms of its being an ongoing entity if the speculated Apple deal actually happens. Yeah, I realize that such commentary will result in name calling, etc., in these parts, but that really doesn't bother me. I am not emotionally vested and you are certainly welcome to hold an opinion contrary to mine, and I hope you're right (and I hope the Universal/Apple deal doesn't happen, at least not while I own BLLN.).
Let's face it- the cost of entry into this type of business isn't enormous, so Qtrax is in a very tenuous position until they prove they can deliver.
It isn't like Qtrax is providing a few thousand servers dispensing this yet to be heard music. After all, the Qtrax model relies on the existing peer to peer system for distribution, as I understand it. The interface is nice, but the value in Qtrax in my opinion, is its relationship with the labels/distributors and last, but NOT LEAST, being first to market with this concept.
But, I figure if I sell at .045, it isn't that much better than losing it all, and I think there is still a chance for this thing to break through.
~gtd
Liquidated.
Done.
History.
Finished.
Kaput.
Worthless
etc.
That is my estimation of what happens to Qtrax in terms of its being an ongoing entity if the speculated Apple deal actually happens. Yeah, I realize that such commentary will result in name calling, etc., in these parts, but that really doesn't bother me. I am not emotionally vested and you are certainly welcome to hold an opinion contrary to mine, and I hope you're right (and I hope the Universal/Apple deal doesn't happen, at least not while I own BLLN.).
Let's face it- the cost of entry into this type of business isn't enormous, so Qtrax is in a very tenuous position until they prove they can deliver.
It isn't like Qtrax is providing a few thousand servers dispensing this yet to be heard music. After all, the Qtrax model relies on the existing peer to peer system for distribution, as I understand it. The interface is nice, but the value in Qtrax in my opinion, is its relationship with the labels/distributors and last, but NOT LEAST, being first to market with this concept.
But, I figure if I sell at .045, it isn't that much better than losing it all, and I think there is still a chance for this thing to break through.
~gtd
Well, if McQuivey providse credence for you, that's fine by me!
I too am curious how APPL would make a device-specific tie to a library hundreds of times larger than the 'pod's capacity- and even MORE curious how they'd keep hackers from uploading/de-DRM'ing the songs on the iPods. And, do these songs peacefully live in iTunes as long as the "original" device is around?
What I found most interesting in that story is that this idea was apparently NOT formed at APPL, rather by the Universal guy. If this happens (yeah, we'll have to agree to disagree), color Qtrax liquidated.
~gtd
Ummm, GoQ, I'm not missing a thing.
You posted-
"Here's another interesting article by cNet News writer Greg Sandoval:
http://www.news.com/newsblog/8301-10784_3-9900250-7.html?tag=more
I particularly like his closing comment:"
Yet it of course wasn't HIS comment.
Everyone is entitled to miss with a pronoun now in then, and no offense was intended, but your attribution was clearly erroneous. Sandoval's "closing comment" was:
"Allowing Jobs to place their music catalogs on a single device might allow him to offer a breakaway handheld that could overshadow any other gadget or music service out there."
..and that certainly isn't what you were referring to, was it?
Anyway, grammer patrol/out.
~gtd (tryin and cryin to KTF)
Short?
Don't make me laugh! (or cry)
Nearly a million long at around 0.07 if you must know, and for a very "long" time now as well.
Really? You concluded that from this?-
"The labels would just be turning over their music to another Apple-only environment," Forrester Research analyst James McQuivey said. "Nobody would want anything else."
"This kind of offer would kill CD sales far more quickly," McQuivey said. "You'd be giving people that typically buy music a reason to quit buying. Besides killing off CD sales, the music industry would harm two areas that are going strong for it right now. One is MP3 sales and the other is the (free streaming) music offered by social networks Imeem and Last.fm. If I were the music labels, I would tell Apple to come back in 2009, after I've given these other services opportunity to grow.""
I think your including Qtrax as one of these "services" is overreaching, to state it politely, considering Qtrax is neither involved in MP3 sales nor free streaming.
Plus, GoQtrax, your attribution of this quote to Sandoval is bogus. The "analyst" McQuivey said it, not Sandoval.
Tighten it up GoQtrax- it seems like there are few in here relying on YOU to do THEIR due diligence!
Well, to keep this positive, I'll say the mozilla/firefox/songbird thingie is alright, I'll say. I even sort of had it working on my mac.
rt
No, if I bought at a lower level I'd still be just as dismayed with the gang who "can't shoot straight", as I've been with it before this blog was at its 20th comment.
But, because, despite the ineptitude of management, NO ONE HAS BEAT THEM TO THE PUNCH, I'll stick it out. Right now, I think it is 50/50 I'll lose everything, but this play was spec only for me to begin with, so easy come, easy go (as long as I hide the debris from the wife). Timing is now critical. They need the song inventory before anyone else, or they're toast. The market doesn't seem to believe they can deliver, that much is now obvious.
But, hey, as granddad liked to say "even a blind pig can find an acorn", so my fingers are crossed (while I hold my nose).
C'mon Q, could you possibly get more over the top?
Big news week and this is what we have to show for it? Miserable volume, even in the pinkie context (outside of day after distro signings). The best news of the last week is we aren't trading at $0.05. Did I mention the pathetic volume? Oh, sorry.
I heartily support your optimism, ESPECIALLY when supported with analytics, but am weary from the cheerleading. No offense.
...and, sorry to say, you're stuck with me as I am still underwater with around a million at 0.07 thereabouts.
OK, so "gut" it is.
Do you have any analysis to support this, or are you speaking from the "gut"?
Well, the suspicions of many of us that AAPL was behind the breakdown of the previous rollout may be confirmed by this tidbit in the "wired" article-
"Qtrax CEO Allan Klepfisz said plans are on hold to offer the music in an iPod-compatible format, and the company will instead focus for the moment on getting licensing deals in place."
http://blog.wired.com/music/2008/03/exclusive-free.html
"big buys"?
Say, $500,000 to $5,000,000?
A quantification would be appreciated!
Dogcat-
I can't claim to have been paying much attention to the soap opera, but for all of the outrage directed at him while none seem to mind folks proclaiming $50,000 trading days as "huge" volume, and attempting to parse the reality of the lack of a single contract with a commercial label, and insinuating they "know something", well, let's get real.
Yeah, I've done pennies before, had a couple work out great and many that went the other way, so this ain't my first rodeo.
I guess I am partial to the underdog, and while BLLN has cost me a lot of $ in the last year and I would LOVE to see it come together, it just seemed to me the r2 cat was getting piled-on. If you guys are right about him, the age old usenet adage "don't feed the trolls" may work wonders.
Hey RBR2, don't take it personally.
I am way long and big on BLLN and I happen to think you write the truth. I've had pennies blow up before, but in terms of failed execution this management team takes the cake. What bozo thought it was a grand idea to publicly shout "Hey Apple- guess what, we've sidestepped the DRM barrier to iPods" all the while being without contracts from the labels. Sort of reminds me of Guiliani's presidential campaign.
Anyway, keep posting as it is always good foil to the unrestrained gushing and speculation all too common in here. I don't see why some feel the need to attack you.
Huge? 4,000,000?? I don't have level 2 or real time, maybe I'm missing something.
QTRAX may have to wait for resolution of this royalty issue before they secure label commitments. Or not, but the issues are connected:
http://tinyurl.com/3bduxz
Unfortunately no. That "article" is already days stale.
If I may ask, what exactly does your wife love about Qtrax?
Did she import other music libraries? Does she not get the ubiquitous "Oracle" message that plagues my install??
Oh, I dunno...
His read, while foul, sounds way more grounded in reality than much of what I've read in here since Monday. BLLN has failed to execute on a timely basis for nearly a year now. Anyone who believes what mgmt says must not have a Magic 8-ball handy..
Maybe someday I'll sell right...
gtd
Unfortunately, this "free pub" makes BLLN/Qtrax looks like bumblers.
Hi all! Newbie to the forum, have been acquiring BLLN over the last 6 months, staying long the whole time.
Not that this is news to any of you guys, but I was very disappointed with the latest failure of execution by these folks. I think we now have a real credibility issue. With that said, I am curious what you guys think about this-
How in the world do we trust management's claim that "by April" they will have solution for play on iPods? Does anyone actually have faith that these guys actually can circumvent Job's "fairplay" DRM, which no other commerical portal has done? Has anyone wondered whether Apple has had, or at least now has, a role with the labels with respect to cutting Qtrax off at the pass? Apple's iTunes cash cow is hardly something to be attacked in a careless fashion, and the events of the last two days has me seriously reconsidering whether BLLN in its current form has the seasoned talent necessary for proper execution.
No iPod play, no chance for Qtrax in the long run, 3rd party hack notwithstanding.
Anyway, would be very interested what folks here think.