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I'm looking for flat to mildly down Friday followed by a big drop early next week. I hope it's not one of those Mondays where the drop occurs in the futures Sunday night leaving crumbs for trading Monday morning.
Best Guess:
Market has made wave 1 down and is now in an A>B>C counter trend rally with B down probably finishing today. C up should occur over the next 1-3 days. Then wave 3 down starts and drops below 1294 with accelerated selling into the 1250 area. The drop and counter-trend rally then completes the Stage 3 topping formation to be followed by Stage 4 down.
Or not.
An alternative view is that it is a deviated pretzel formation contrived by conspiratorial counter-revolutionary Amish privet hedge fund traders using compost-powered computers to control the market. A kind of Manureman Sachs conspiracy theory.
Or not.
60 minute chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&b=5&g=0&id=p87348350725&listNum=7&a=226115933
Very close to where the bottom falls out.
It will be interesting to see if selling speeds up Wed.
Muslim New Year Timing?
http://www.godweb.org/IslamCalendar.htm
Zombie vampire Dracula bull market needs silver bullet
I see a weak corrective bounce here from the drop this week. If this bounce drops next week and takes out this week's low (a wave 3 down), then we might have the start of a strong correction. But I still have no major sell signal on two different daily charts I use. That may be given next week and we'll have either a drop like last November or last May. Neither would necessarily turn the bull around. But short-term trading opportunities abound with volatility.
1 MINUTE CHART FOR SHORT TERM. USEFUL TEMPLATE.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=1&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p66967496659&listNum=7&a=226067415
Daily chart with new indicators. Check this out.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63782930961&listNum=7&a=225943143
True. No sell signal now but under sell "watch".
The following chart works pretty well for generating "watch" and "sell" signals.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31209702369&listNum=13&a=216119856
Short-term I'm expecting a pullback. If it doesn't generate a "sell" signal on the above chart, then it's another good buying opportunity. Here's an interesting 60 min chart which can also be used as a template for other symbols. Works on 30 min as well.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p17218073745&listNum=7&a=225253721
Another good daily. Note PPO
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p62960824731&a=225274973&listNum=7
Get out the jelly: this rally's toast
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p52495674187&listNum=7&a=225274973
Interesting weekly chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51829122812&a=224558221&listNum=7
I'm looking for Pullback like last May. A break of the red channel would portend something else. Otherwise, like last summer, a good upside opportunity.
Walrus market getting long in the tooth
Daily, 60 min and 10 min charts SPX
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20474229925&listNum=7&a=223941669
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p08696166245&a=224381937&listNum=7
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=10&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p78757087054&a=224124786&listNum=7
S&P 500 Daily with %B indicators and trend lines.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43883479675&listNum=7&a=223549743
No serious "doom" until 1173 neckline is broken.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p85242405436&a=221117591&listNum=7
PPO Indicator
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79045231750&listNum=13&a=216119856
A little something Santa left I found in the bottom of the stocking.
SUPER CHART: VIX DAILY TIMING INDICATOR
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p89864351776&listNum=2&a=218432272
JUST IN TIME FOR CHRISTMAS!
SPX 60 min See PPO section
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p35065079085&listNum=2&a=218022326
Riding the Sigmoid Curve
http://vannevar.blogspot.com/2009/01/riding-sigmoid-curve.html
Charts: Note action of Slope indicators
Look t the bottom half below the main price section
Possible bullish weekly
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYADV:$CPCE&p=W&yr=3&mn=4&dy=10&id=p69944005601&listNum=2&a=217759300
Daily
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYADV:$CPCE&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=10&id=p02389559552&a=217756332&listNum=2
60 min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYADV:$CPCE&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=10&id=p01891491371&listNum=2&a=216871987
Substitute symbols of your choice
Thanks. Many "crosswinds" now. Oil seems to be at a high. IF it's an "all-in-one market" in some ways, perhaps drop is near. Options are, of course, more raisins in the pie.
What to watch for
A possible short-term trend change in gold and oil to negative would also be negative for the general market. Use a drop in gold futures below 1380 as a warning. Watch for a rise in the dollar.
SPY weekly. Waiting for signal.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=W&yr=2&mn=1&dy=15&id=p43335287173&listNum=2&a=217013556
SPY 60 min looking like a top
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYADV:$CPCE&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p87482791329&listNum=2&a=216868383
Are we there yet? Are we there yet?
Waiting for break below 1225. Possible 5 wave structure with 5th wave maybe truncating.
Coming Euro disaster = strong dollar = down market
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11953413
Outstanding. Thanks.
Here's a quirky little chart I haven't come to a conclusion on yet.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT:TMV&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p72313673970&a=216744213&listNum=2
Didn’t pull the trigger on my shorts today
And the world is probably a much, much better place because of that. But seriously, folks… all my ducks didn’t line up on my 60 min $SPX to take a short position. (I don’t trade intraday) Currently 10:30 pm the momentum of SPX futures appear to be topping and the dollar seems to be heading towards a momentum bottom. Either the recent decline was the start of the drop down from a C top of ABC towards 1200, 1175, 1150 completing wave 4 or a pullback from wave 1 of 5 waves up of wave 5. Thursday’s action should clarify where the market is as the dollar dictates direction. And that’s the long and short of it.
Very close to a buy signal of short etf (I prefer EDZ). See indicators on charts. Keep an eye on dollar futures
http://www.futurespros.com/charts/real-time-futures-charts
Dollar must remain above 80 for drop to occur. I see a short term rally in the dollar here. Open up the futures to 5 hour chart. Add RSI and Stochastic Slow (20,9,9). Stoc is curling up on the 5 hour. RSI must remain above 50. Good indicator. Could be a little strength at the open…not sure.
See Signals on
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p24613601614&a=216205373&listNum=2
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p83692567738&a=216614363&listNum=2
EDZ
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EDZ&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p53648720985&a=216189239&listNum=2
SPX daily
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=10&id=p60267619172&listNum=2&a=216204464
Happy trading!
Dollar is key. Futures daily RSI right at 50 and must move higher for a decline. Looking for stochastic to hook up if it does.
Nuther SPY 60 min chart indicating down move
Move (down) coming as indicated by bollinger band width and standard deviation. Watch the dollar (UUP) for confirmation of direction. A break above 80 in the dollar futures would close the deal.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p68465278373&listNum=2&a=216483709
Thinking out of the box so long that
I forgot what a box looks like :)
Moving towards sell signal:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p03505638645&listNum=2&a=216205373
SPY 60 min using $NYADV:$CPCE Drop coming
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYADV:$CPCE&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p21237898337&listNum=2&a=216287637
The market is in the process of rolling over. I expect it to be much lower by the end of the week.
Longer-term buy/sell swing trade signal chart
Useful for longer-term swing trades where you don't have to watch the computer all day. Buy and sell points are a little late, but have less stress.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00891015402&a=216230834&listNum=13
dollar flatlined
at a BB width top. Looking for a drop in BB width next, then rise. Using the hourly with 20 and 10 BB width settings at
http://www.futurespros.com/charts/real-time-futures-charts
the next rise in width should accompany a rise in the dollar dropping the market. Leaving milk and cookies and Scotch out for the market Santa is imperative. If this scenario does not occur, drink the Scotch.
Here's an example of my usage of tight envelopes on a 30 min chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=1&dy=12&id=p91172115066&a=214720386&listNum=13