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Try looking up net income, Einstein.
Better yet, just look at the bottom line on the income statement that you linked, earlier.
When any company reports earnings, they report NET income. Gross income is fine, but it is just a starting component of the bottom line.
bar, I hear you. When I was very young my mom had an uncle who had great stock market wealth until the 1929 crash. He then became a Bowery bum, alcoholic and sad character who spent his life in and out of jail until he died and was buried in Potter's Field, somewhere.
Some people have always thought they were smarter than everyone else and discovered some fountain of wealth that everyone else had overlooked. In this era of algorithms and high frequency trading, I think those with that form of myopia are, frankly, delusional.
I do a lot of diligence, read tons, and invest conservatively with one eye on the news monitor, one hand on the sell button and a whole lot of stoploss orders because I know the pain of large losses.
I don't totally blame the investors sitting with money market accounts at below inflation rates after the "flash crash", Bernie Madoff's escapade and all the "wisdom" of the talking heads on CNBC who routinely promote losing investment strategies, just so the network can have some new opinion to carp on.
Go to Yahoo Finance, enter XIDE and click on income statement on the lefthand side of the page. You can then choose between annual and quarterly numbers in the upper L.H portion of the page.
These are the same numbers posted on Edgar for FY12 (10-K) and Q1 thru Q3 posted for each quarter.
Hey, you made a mistake. No biggie. Thanks for correcting it.
The net profits for Q1 through Q3 are scary. This company may survive, but it is in serious trouble, once again. Sad, actually. There is a proud history and a lot of great achievements and patents in the prior times of this company. But the lead/acid business is a dirty one, in more ways than one. And the Exide board of directors seems asleep at the wheel or just totally immersed in their options...
And, genius, that profit was for FY12. For the first 3 Q's of FY13 they reported a loss of $135 million. That's why the S/P has cratered to twenty cents. It's a P-O-S!
No, they posted a profit of $56,739K against a revenue line of over $3 billion. That kinda sucks.
Where did you come up with $300M in profits? A Ouija board?
Hurry up and wait!
I wouldn't expect much, this week, either. Amazing, actually, there is a vacuum of PR from management and from Sitrick... almost like a blackout. And, of course, no reported financials for Q4 or FY12.
Very strange.
That's the same garbage they were posting prior to the last BK.
Exide had a chance after the last re-organization and blew the opportunity. They basically bailed on the auto segment, thus missing the recent recovery in car sales. Then they got their clocks cleaned in the aftermarket by putting amateurs in charge. Overseas, they closed the wrong assets, kept open the wrong assets, alienated a fairly sophisticated European team by putting ignorant GNB'ers with Georgia redneck manners and arrogant incivility in charge of global motive power.
And on, and on...
Face it, guys, Exide is just a morass of ineptitude. When very capable companies like Johnson Controls have a hard time succeeding in a changing environment, how does an incapable company like Exide fare any better? The answer is that they don't!
You are everso right. There is a reason why Pimco changed their advertised slogan from "The Bond Experts" to "The Investment Experts." El Erian and Gross are not dummies. They know what's coming.
Hey, remember when every bank was giving away toasters, electric blankets and blenders with every new account and CD? My how things have changed. But it was fun while it lasted. Kinda like 18% divvies. LOL!
I have two managed portfolios, one IRA, one non, and I asked my advisors to eliminate just about all bond funds, last fall. I do have a small position in a junk bond fund that continues to do well. I do not want the risk going into a period of uncertainty over Fed policy.
mReits are particularly vulnerable because their spread is very compressed. I seem to recall that AGNC's is around 1.3% (which sounds low, but is on $ billions and virtually no overhead SGA). A 250 basis point swing would be right at 20% likely devaluation of book value. At a present $25 S/P, that would be around $5, or the equivalent of a year's divvy... if it holds, which would be unlikely.
You keep saying, as I do... you HAVE to look at more than the appealing high dividend rate with these trusts! Hey, I was lucky, my learning curve occurred during a lengthy ownership period where book values rose during a declining rate cycle and divvies held. But I at least learned enough to know when risk was threatening to outweigh rewards.
By the way, I prefer Motley Fool's mReit blogs to Seeking Alpha's. Just my personal preference.
"How much below book do you think this can go?"
Well, Nostradamus, the book value is determined by the relationship between the inventory and future, alternative purchases. If interest rates rise, the value of existing bond inventory is inversely proportionate to the value of new bonds that can be alternatively purchased at a superior spread. Here, Al I'll dumb it down for you... as interest rates rise, old bonds are worth less than new bonds. Got it?
However, I must give you due credit for your ability to predict the future. You now claim to know what the next dividend is and what will happen to the share price upon its announcement. That is truly impressive. You must be someone very special to have these superhuman powers of prediction.
"You da man!"
Yup. But it would not be the first time...
Al, do you know what AGNC's assets are? They are real estate BONDS! That is what a few of us having been trying to tell you for weeks.
American Capital owns bonds. You need to understand that a mReit has no hard assets, factories or goods they produce. It's all paper. They own no real estate. They own the commercial paper that underpins the mortgages others have taken out or have given out to allow a real estate transaction to take place.
Seeking Alpha stuff is written by bloggers. Some are good. Many are not. I could show you dozens of SA "reports" over the last year that tell you mReits and AGNC are like cancer.
You take my comments and those from others as self-serving or condescending because our views don't jibe with your rosy view of AGNC. But we are trying to get you, and others that may read and listen to you, to think things all the way through. This is a very complex business, and, NO, I don't claim to know it all or even most of it. But there is a lot of risk in this investment, which may not make it a poor choice depending on your tolerance for volatility, but investors need to understand the downside beyond the obvious dividend upside.
Good luck.
The prior quarter's dividend was announced on March 7, exactly 90 days ago. We will all know very soon how much the devalued book and reported loss will be treated by the board and the divvy they declare.
I bet that the $1.25/share is held to prevent further S/P gutting.
MFA is a hybrid mReit, meaning it carries both gov't. backed bonds and bank/open market paper. It is a well run company that increased their divvy last quarter and is showing a steady curve upwards in book value. Rising mortgage interest rates, as another poster recently observed, primarily have benefitted the non-backed sector. This helps explain why MFA has trended stronger than AGNC.
Just remember that IF interest rates either rise or even are suspected of a possible uptick, all bonds including real estate bonds can tank which invariably lowers the book value of mReit paper inventory and likely future dividend payouts. Also, please bear in mind that mReits borrowing at suddenly escalated ST interest rates are purchasing bonds for mortgages purchased earlier in time at fixed interest rates. There is potentially a year or more of pain in a rising I market before the spreads return to earlier profits and eventually get better. Said another way, yes rising interest rates can benefit mReits over time, but they inherently involve great risk and volatility until the rising rates equilibrate between short term borrowing and the purchase of LT paper.
Very interesting thread, guys. I am sure the the FTC would have problems with an Apria takeover, but a combined Lincare/Rotech would only approximate Apria's size, which is why I earlier suggested such a deal makes compelling sense. Linde has lots of capital, a strong banking relationship with Deutschebank and a high-integrity reputation.
A marriage of Lincare and Rotech could net truly huge integration savings, including ridding ROHI of nearly all its management overhead and a lot of duplicate branch and delivery overhead. It also would expose another interesting possibility. Suppose privately held Linde wanted to separate Lincare as a standalone business and take it public. ROHI, being public, could provide a reverse merger opportunity. Now this one is WAY out there! And with ROHI being a large, active, functioning business, such an arrangement would be hugely advantaged vs. purchasing a shell corporation, and would provide access to future capital via public offerings.
Am I being lucid? I've only had one cup of coffee so far this morning.
I hope that you are right, but I really believe you are grasping at straws for hope. Only the release of updated, audited financials will open the door for a deal. No financials, insufficient rationale for a deal. Can't you see the obvious? Management DOES NOT WANT A DEAL! They want the debt-for-equity swap to go forward because management is cut in for a juicy piece of action in the re-organized Rotech, largely unencumbered of debt and blessed with a huge new contract in VA business in an environment of improving bid-process for future contract awards.
Wasn't there a 007 movie, "Licensed to Kill" awhile back? That's what this is. A license to kill shareholders interests for someone else's gain.
JMHO.
Good luck!
Good find, investor2004, and I missed this article somewhere along the line so thank you for digging for it.
It is a stretch, however, to conclude that somehow Rotech is "in play" based on a year old article that could, at best, be considered speculation. We will all just need to be patient and see how this plays out, over time.
I really hope that your optimism pans out.
I think all of us have that selfsame worry on spending. I keep praying for some kind of "grand bargain" that spreads pain evenly and makes a genuine impact on the deficit.
The good news for mReits is that Bernanke is clearly aware that a rise in interest rates will trigger higher costs on future Federal borrowing as LT debt matures and must be refinanced at newer, higher rates. He actually commented specifically at a recent hearing on precisely that point. I see the Fed as playing a waiting game where the hope is that the economy and, thus, payroll tax revenue recovers and funds a deficit paydown before inflation forces an interest rate move. That's all JMHO, by the way, but I don't see Bernanke doing anything dramatic or sudden in this highly fragile economy.
I hope for all of us and the generations that will inherit the eventual outcome of this issue that the outcome is positive.
robb, I think that we all agree a new management team is needed, other than maybe the noteholders if the debt-for-equity swap goes forward, since they will have been gifted with all the equity in the re-org'd Rotech. I actually think they could turn on Alsene, too, depending on the final outcome.
MOST of Rotech's competitors are not mom and pop providers and, under current changes to the bidding process, it is actually more difficult for these lower overhead operations to even bid for contracts against established players like Rotech, Apria or Lincare. This entire bidding process is a fluid and possibly changing landscape, as investor2004 has been pointing out, for some time.
I am with you on sitting this out for a bit longer. I never invest with the flash mob, even if it means being overly cautious and missing a few gainers, here and there.
robb/investor2004,
There's truth to both your perspectives. robb, you are right that the value and future prospects improve if the debt/equity swap is completed and the Tier2 debt is retired. investor2004, you also are right that with the debt retired, the asking price suddenly grows geometrically if a buyer then emerges.
I know I sound somewhat like a broken record, but there is a sound reason why I keep carping on the unreported financials that are starting to look older than Rip van Winkle. Without these metrics it is nearly IMPOSSIBLE for anyone to determine what the future of Rotech is, or what kind of return it might deliver with either 60% of its debt retired or a new owner at the helm, steering in a new course and business plan. This lack of data deters interest in active buyers and it makes establishing an investing position, buy or sell, untenable because an informational Berlin Wall has been erected to conceal the metrics.
I frankly think this STINKS.
Hey Al, the "over-reaction of the market" continues, unabated, today. All of us doomsayers who failed to see the vision you had are clearly in error and will soon be exposed as the wisdom of the Financial Times is soon revealed in all its splendor and presumptive accuracy.
So far, though, I made about $21 per share on divvies and an average $7.50 in S/P growth over around 5 years of owning AGNC. Another poster, earlier today, did even better by reinvesting his dividends. Kudos to a savvy investor.
Sorry you won't read this or my other posts. But you just keep reading and repeating those old articles from the Financial Times. If the stock takes off at some point, you deserve full credit for believing them and blowing off all the alternative press that predicts otherwise.
Good luck!
Yank
I am betting that you are right. Looking a little weak to start this week out, however. That said, impressive gains for the YTD. If the market corrects... who knows, right... I will reload on any dips of note. My cost average is around $22, give or take, plus the divvy.
I certainly hear ya on treasury yields. I own zero bonds except a small stake in a junk bond mutual fund.
I am a longstanding fan of mReits and did quite well over about the same investment window as you, until I cashed out last fall. I did not, however, reinvest dividends as I needed the proceeds to pay the taxman, and to fund some real estate that I purchased for cash. But I have reservations about the sector as it stares down the barrel of Fed pullbacks and the inevitable cycle of inflation that will strike with certainty at some point in the future.
I had a great run with AGNC, but for me it was just time to move on as I did with the 11 other mReits that I owned. As they say, never look back, but I always have an eye on future opportunities, so I stay current on developments in this intriguing sector. You, like myself, did well here when all the talking heads and bloggers at Seeking Alpha warned everyone to run and hde under the bed. You should take pride in your contrarian stance that obviuously has proven to be highly profitable.
robb, I think that most all of us think Rotech is worth a lot more than the deal that is on the table and before the bench in Delaware. However, the company has chosen to make valuation impossible via a de facto stonewalling of audited financial information for Q4 and FY12.
In two weeks... DA-DA!... we may know something further when ROHI's amended petition is made public, unless they hide behind some arcane veil of secrecy as was recently and confusingly orchestrated, IMO.
Then again, they earlier promised release of financials, and that date just quietly came and went about a month ago with nothing but a stunning crescendo of silence.
With 41.3% of outstanding shares institutionally owned, there are plenty of big houses poised to consume the additional 10M shares. And why would insty's want preferred shares? Could it be because YOY quarterly earnings declined 64%, making a separation with the common divvy more attractive since continued earnings like that will almost surely drive the dividend down to lower levels?
I have to disagree somewhat on your point that QE pushback is unrelated to AGNC's S/P decline. Almost all mReits are down during the same period and most of them already adjusted their divvies downward. AGNC is down the most among mReits, and that to me says their dividend payout is at risk at present levels.
Thanks for an intelligent post worth discussing.
With 41.3% of outstanding shares institutionally owned, there are plenty of big houses poised to consume the additional 10M shares. And why would insty's want preferred shares? Could it be because YOY quarterly earnings declined 64%, making a separation with the common divvy more attractive since continued earnings like that will almost surely drive the dividend down to lower levels?
I have to disagree somewhat on your point that QE pushback is unrelated to AGNC's S/P decline. Almost all mReits are down during the same period and most of them already adjusted their divvies downward. AGNC is down the most among mReits, and that to me says their dividend payout is at risk at present levels.
Thanks for an intelligent post worth discussing.
A snarky remark like that shows you lack either one.
AGNC is getting pounded, again, today, in early trading. There is a cloud of uncertainty hanging over mReits in general, and a supercell hanging over AGNC because of its pending charter amendment. On the latter point, the next meeting is scheduled for, I believe, June 26th.
Anyone care to venture an intelligent comment on the upcoming dividend, its ex-div date and whether the $1.25/Q will hold? Management earlier expressed some optimism on the latter point.
Al, that's HILARIOUS! Thanks for giving me that belly laugh. That's all you owned? Gee, the way you protected AGNC, I thought you must be some big hitter or whale investor. Stupid me. I should have known better than to engage with a nickel and dime player who just likes to puff up his chest and debate the investment game with people that have real skin in the game.
Thank you for moving on, though. It is much appreciated by those of us with a brain and some real money at risk. And good luck with your AGNC investment.
Think you will need good luck?
Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
Yank
Anyone else noticing a decline in customer service at Target? I have been a regular customer for years and I have seen really atrocious frontend mismanagement in Targets in both Florida and New Hampshire.
Very few cashiers, long lines at the registers, customers walking out and leaving their loaded cart in the checkout zone. I asked to speak to a manager and was told none was available(?).
Very disappointing for a retailer that once upon a time raised the bar in serving retail customers impeccably.
IF, and that is a big IF, the divvy holds at $1.25, the AGNC S/P will reduce to $24.55.
What did I estimate as the upcoming S/P? $24?
Gee whizz, kids.
This is so simple.
For those that bought above $30/S and bizarrely claimed they were holding on for the $1.25 divvy, how's that working out or you?
How does it feel to be pumped up the rectum without lube, there, Al? Then again, maybe you like it like that!
What a total, utter crock of feces, Al.
You have zero tolerance for anyone that challenges AGNC's "perfection" as some huge payday investment. If anyone speaks out, you attack like a rabid dog.
You rail on and on about some ancient article in the Financial Times about Bernanke and QE, then both bar and I post current links that raise issues about Fed policy undercutting support for "easing" and you go into paroxysms of denial. You do what you want and invest as you wish. But allow other investors the same priviledge to listen to dissenting views and make their investment choices with complete information.
How can you claim to have any informed opinions on AGNC when, by your own admission, you claimed to not being "privy" to at least 3 SEC-filed documents that were in full public view to anybody, as long as they at least had a library card and access to the internet?
What's your agenda, man? Do you work for a "boiler room" pumping AGNC or are you just another bottom feeder praying for a dead cat bounce?
Either way, you are not fooling me or anyone else with your rubbish.
There are 3 PR's, all SEC filings, two dated 5/30/13 and one dated 5/31/13 that are posted in the "news" section of AGNC's opening IHub page. If you own this stock and failed to read the PR, you must either not own enough shares for the news to matter, or, you are a truly ignorant investor. No one has to be "privy" to anything to access this information. You just have to be blessed with enough intelligence to comprehend that maybe you should read this sort of stuff when matters like amending the corporate charter to DOUBLE the number of outstanding shares are on the table.
As for me "bailing" last year, I owned shares in AGNC at around $28.50. I sold 40% at $34, 50% at $35 and 10% at $30.50. I held these shares for well over a year. Taking profits is never a wrong strategy. But taking profits on a stock that subsequently declines by as much as $9 per share would tend to indicate that someone was, in fact, a fairly decent market forecaster.
You can post all the innuendo-laced, condescending garbage that you want but none of that will help anyone contemplating buying or selling AGNC stock.
bar, I actually like both income and appreciation where I can find them. There is Walmart, Walgreens which you recently mentioned and lots of others including my current favorite, CQP. But the % is NOT the fulcrum in my book; it is the longer term S/P. And the company's quality, management integrity and risks in a volatile market.
AGNC has a pending charter revision that has recently postponed a concluding vote at their annual meeting. Read the details (if you have not, yet) and observe a "gambit" of colossal dimension, IMO.
AGNC is talking about a 100% dilution by doubling the # of common shares from 10M to 20M. If approved, this will halve the S/P in the near term, and halve the dividend. If management prevails, you can sit back with me and watch these sheep bleat and squeal as they are led to the slaughterhouse to become some wiser investor's dinner.
Hopefully PETA will watch out for the minimization of pain during the humane killing process for Al and his cronies.
I had a bad experience with one such ETF, GCH, that a good friend of mine convinced me was a great investment when the banking crisis sank the Dow and all the talking heads on CNBC kept raving about B R I C funds. What a doggie. They paid me a big divvy with my own money which I had to pay taxes on; then the S/P compressed and never recovered as they played revolving door fund managers. Never again!
Cramer just described mReits as "horrendous" investments in today's market. I think that is over-dramatic, but then again, that's Jim Cramer for you. I just, frankly, see more down side than upside and one heck of a lot of risk compared to other alternatives. This was a great trade during the Greenspan/Bernanke age of Fed intervention, and I did exceptionally well until I got out in September and October of 2012.
bar, you might as well save your breath because you are attempting to reason with someone with the investing IQ of an avocado.
Penny players like this only look at the dividend rate and go "whoopee" at the return compared to bank rates. Of course that looks good. But, as you have pointed out, the divvy can compress with alarming speed.
For me, I must consider the S/P in concert with the dividend because in my tax bracket I must hold for at least a year or get killed on a short term gain. The high divvy rate when taxed at ordinary rates loses a lot of its luster for a higher-income investor. If "uncle" takes around 40% of your $5 divvy for taxes, the LT value of the shareprice takes on added meaning for the health of your portfolio.
AGNC's S/P has deaccelerated by around $9 over a relatively short term. That is not a healthy trendline.
You obviously have a problem reading entire sentences. The statement I had a problem with was when Al kept stating that mReits borrow at ST rates and sell or loan at higher LT rates, or words to that effect. What Al stated is NOT wehat mReits do and it is not what the link you posted says.
If you had taken the time to read my post you replied to, you would clearly have read the comment I made that ST borrowings are one means mReits use to make open market purchases. And if you had taken the time to read the recent 8-K filings which AGNC filed with the SEC, you would also clearly note that the other sources of cApital that I reference in that same post are additionally correct.
Too many people that invest in Mreits and write blogs about them really do not understand the business. You and Al are apparently among the ignorant in that regard.
It has now been over 7 months since ROHI released any audited 10-Q figures (that was for Q3) and the 10-K is woefully late in being filed. Why? Why would a pending BK which now looks like it is being targeted to close in August postpone the filing of data for a stock that continues to trade?
Is somebody hiding something? If so, what? And, why?
I believe that if you can answer these questions you will have the ability to predict the final outcome for Rotech.
Where's that old song? You know the one. "Here come the judge."
bar, I agree that sometimes averaging down is a fools errand. However, if you do propper due diligence, it can also be a ticket to enormous wealth. The 3 best trades I ever made were by averaging down on Amazon when the tech bubble burst, Ford after the financial meltdown and Las Vegas Sands when the recession settled in. I do NOT employ such a strategy on pennies or pinkies.
By the way, the two worst trades I ever made were averaging down on Worldcom prior to the scandal and on SONY when Playstation 2 was waiting in the wings.
Good luck.
The real "action" will take place when the Fed quits just talking about tapering and actually does something concrete. Then you have the inevitability of the eventual increase in interest rates. I say in 2014, other self-proclaimed, wiser investors say 2015.
WHEN (not If, WHEN) the Fed elevates rates, guess what is on mReits books? Mortgage bonds. Guess what happens to old bonds when new bonds are available to buy at a higher coupon? MELTDOWN.
With the book value of AGNC's holdings vulnerable to a HUGE hit if interest rates rise, how do you think dividends will fare? If both the book value and divvy take a nosedive, how do you think the S/P will react? And with book value eroding, how do you think AGNC's borrowing costs will go up with higher risk, compared to rising interest rates from the Fed? If AGNC's poremium to borrow rises faster than the broad market interest rate, what does that do to the spread that drives AGNC's 90% distribution to shareholders?
Good luck, guys. Some of you are going to need a boatload of it.