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This is what happens when a country nationalizes its private corporations:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/venezuelas-maduro-pleads-foreign-capital-100004602.html
"Venezuela, home to the world’s largest oil reserves, is starved for capital and desperate to regain access to global debt and commodity markets after two decades of anti-capitalist transformation and four years of crippling U.S. sanctions. The country is in default, its infrastructure crumbling and life for millions a struggle for survival.
“If Venezuela can’t produce oil and sell it, can’t produce and sell its gold, can’t produce and sell its bauxite, can’t produce iron, etcetera, and can’t earn revenue in the international market, how is it supposed to pay the holders of Venezuelan bonds?” Maduro, 58, says, his palms upturned in appeal. “This world has to change. This situation has to change.”"
"Once the richest country in South America, Venezuela is now among the poorest. Inflation has been running at about 2,300% a year. By some estimates, the economy has shrunk by 80% in nine years -- the deepest depression in modern history.
Signs of decay are everywhere. At the foreign ministry in downtown Caracas, most of the lights are turned off and signs on the bathroom doors say, “No Water.” Employees at the central bank bring their own toilet paper.
Throughout the country, blackouts are daily occurrences. In Caracas, the subway barely works and gangs rule the barrios. Some 5.4 million Venezuelans, a fifth of the population, have fled abroad, causing strains across the continent. The border with Colombia is a lawless no-man’s land. Cuba, of all places, has provided humanitarian aid."
"Weekly Housing Trends Key Findings
Key Findings:
Median listing prices grew at 13.2 percent over last year, marking 44 straight weeks of double-digit price growth. While the rate of growth hasn’t slowed every week (see for example last week’s jump), the trend is clearly toward more moderate, if still high, price growth. Median home listing prices hit a 4th consecutive record-high in May at $380,000, and prices are on track to set another record or two before cooling later this fall.
New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–bounced back, rising 7 percent. We’ve seen more new listings this year versus last in 10 of the last 12 weeks. The influx of new sellers over the last couple of months has helped slow price gains. On top of this, new home construction is giving buyers more options even though builders completed fewer homes as a result of labor and materials challenges.
Total active inventory is still down, but just 44 percent from this time last year. This means a still limited number of homes for sale, and a continuation of the improvement we saw last week. While we suspected that the later Memorial Day holiday this year could partially explain last week’s dip, this week’s continued declines suggest that the rebalancing market may have been more than just a holiday blip and continues a very slow, but steady 10 weeks of slowing in the rate of decline.
Time on market was 36 days faster than last year. The typical active listing hit a record fast pace of 39 days in May. This fast pace means that buyers have to be prepared to act quickly and sellers also need to have a plan for their next move."
https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-june-12-2021/
IV. The Biden-Harris Administration’s Housing Proposals
To follow through on these principles, expand access to housing, and create good jobs for working Americans, the Biden-Harris Administration has put forward a robust housing agenda. The Administration’s proposals fall into four main categories:
· Offering tax credits to incentivize construction and rehabilitation of affordable housing. The American Jobs Plan would expand existing tax credits, like the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC). It would also create new tax credits to make it cost-effective to build new units of affordable housing and to rehabilitate existing homes in poor condition. The Biden-Harris Administration has proposed investing an additional $55 billion in LIHTCs, alongside the creation of new credits based on the Neighborhood Homes Investment Act, which incentivizes development and rehabilitation of owner-occupied housing in distressed neighborhoods.
· Investing in affordable rental housing. The American Jobs Plan would offer additional subsidies to build and preserve rental housing for the lowest-income renters. These investments include a $35 billion investment in the HOME Investment Partnerships program, $45 billion for the Housing Trust Fund, $12 billion for the Capital Magnet Fund, and $2 billion for new project-based rental assistance agreements.
· Revitalizing public housing. To respond to the needs of the nearly 2 million Americans living in public housing, the Biden-Harris Administration has proposed investing $40 billion to rehabilitate and revitalize America’s public housing. These investments will improve the safety and health of these housing facilities and ensure public housing meets the high standards embodied in the Administration’s housing principles.
· Incentivizing removal of exclusionary zoning policies. For far too long, access to affordable housing has been inhibited by exclusionary zoning laws like minimum lot sizes, mandatory parking requirements, and unnecessary prohibitions on multifamily housing. These policies have constrained the housing supply and driven up costs, locking working families out of opportunity. The Biden-Harris Administration has proposed creating a $5 billion incentive program to reward jurisdictions that take action to eliminate these exclusionary policies and reduce barriers to the creation of affordable housing.
We estimate the housing proposals in the American Jobs Plan will generate production or preservation of more than 2 million affordable housing units. These Federal investments will be augmented by private sector capital to further expand the supply of affordable housing, both from traditional real estate developers and from community-focused organizations like Community Development Financial Institutions and minority depository institutions, which are already receiving an influx of $12 billion in capital under the American Rescue Plan. The AJP will put in place incentives that pair public funds with private investment, side by side, to maximize the impact of these policies and catalyze the new housing developments our country needs. This new housing will offer a pathway to financial stability for millions of families and help address the longstanding economic and racial disparities that for too long have been endemic in America’s housing system.
https://secjanetyellen.medium.com/the-state-of-the-housing-market-2f3cece054e
I totally agree and have placed my bets accordingly! I was just pointing out to Atex that it is always a possibility but not likely.
I found this comment on the web in reference to Hawaii immediately requiring mandatory mediation in their response to try to delay the eviction of non rent paying tenants: "Stacey
Friday, Jun. 18, 2021 11:54 AM
To those unaware. The government's true intention is to eradicate ALL PRIVATE OWNERSHIP (basically step number 1 when implementing a socialist or Marxist state) which is why they are making it more and more unaffordable for middle class to buy homes, let alone invest in any to rent out for retirement income, Know of any other businesses forced to give away free services or products? Grocery stores forced to give out free groceries? Cable companies forced to waive internet, cable and cell fees? Mechanics ordered to repair and service cars for free? Better yet, dealerships ordered to give out cars for free? Nope. ONLY LANDLORDS were thrown under the proverbial bus. You only need to ask WHY? It's not to protect the bums that were making a fortune off of the unemployment schemes most were given, yet somehow were not able to afford to pay their rent. It's to offer ZERO protections to private land lowers so they either default or sell to save their financial hides. And so many just lap this up like the good little sheep that they are. Socialist and Marxism is coming for us...whether we want it or not. I suggest people wake up and begin FIGHTING BACK. Quit voting these criminals into office fgs!!"
https://mauinow.com/2021/06/17/bill-to-amend-landlord-tenant-code-signed-into-law/
https://www.kake.com/story/44131806/kansas-judge-finds-cdc-eviction-moratorium-unenforceable
The saddest part about this governmental interference with the landlord tenant market is that RENTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
They took the ACA Case because the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the District Court ruling that the Plaintiff Texas had Standing. It was the very 1st Question to answer from the Writ of Certerrori.
In order to get your case in front of a Judge you need to show actual harm from the defendant that has a nexus to the ACA. The 7 Justice majority said no, Alito said yes. Amy Howe's comments are pretty good: https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/06/court-again-leaves-affordable-care-act-in-place/
In Collins, we have a fantastic link between the accountable to NOONE in Government action of the implementation of the nws and a wiping out of our financial interests. The SCOTUS could still easily do a remedial dodge on the unconstitionally insulated FHFA Director, but the APA claim would be harder to dodge because it says, "shall set aside".
But the SCOTUS could say, "HaHa, we can't offer the Collins Plaintiffs relief because of the anti-injunction clause and or the Succession Clause or the FHFA "may" do WHATEVER is in its best interests like stealing all of its wards assets, the Collins Plaintiffs need to write a letter to their Congress person."
I don't think any of that is what the Legislative Branch had in mind when it copied HERA from the 1980's S&L crisis legislation. Also given all the documents collected painstakingly from the overly reluctant government that show tons of bad actions by the government, to disallow the Collins Plaintiffs their day in court would be a true miscarriage of Justice.
We'll probably have a decision next week or the week after.
The Justices allegiance is above all to the United States Constitution and the rule of law. With lifetime tenure they need not worry about ruling for or against a politically unpopular minority such as people like you and me, "the evil banksters/hedge fund guys"! In theory, our founding fathers set up the Judiciary Branch of government to quell the majority in a democracy from steamrolling over the rights of a minority of its Citizens. We'll see what happens, but I look forward to the upcoming ruling and we may be in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning of this never ending saga, as the nws and the conservatorship days are numbered.
Yesterday the SCOTUS prevented governmental overreach by the City of Philadelphia in that the City of Philadelphia was seen as infringing on the 1st Amendment religious rights of the Plaintiffs. The 1st question presented in the Obamacare case was whether or not Texas even had standing for the court to address the legal issues in the ACA, the SCOTUS said no there was not a sufficient nexus between the harm the Plaintiffs claim and the ACA so they need not go any further. In the 3rd case, the SCOTUS didn't want to start taking on world wide issues (like child slavery) through Plaintiffs coming through the backdoor via a US statute.
In Collins we have plenty of governmental overreach linked to the ultra vires acts of the federal government (who ever heard of a Conservator giving all its wards profits to the UST?). I think the SCOTUS will likely invalidate the nws and possibly do more! Of course everyone remembers the unfavorable rulings peppered throughout the federal circuits (largely 1 or 3 judge panels) over the years and is naturally a little apprehensive!
I think the Collins case (or one of the other cases) was destined for the SCOTUS AND WE ARE NEXT IN THE HOPPER SO IT MAY BE NEXT WEEK SOMETIME! GLTA!
"We don't know yet when the next opinion day will be, but I bet it will be Monday. And with 15 cases to go in the term, I imagine there probably will be three opinion days next week. But wow, today was quite a day. And all three of these cases are mine to cover, so I'm off to get to work. Thanks so much for joining us today, and see you back here again soon!
Amy Howe"
From the latest report on American Housing:
https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/state-nations-housing-2021
Fact Sheet
KEY FACTS
Strong Demand and Tight Supply Lift Home Prices by Double Digits
• The supply of existing homes for sale has never been tighter. There were 1.03 million existing homes on
the market in February 2021, down from an already low 1.46 million a year earlier. This amounts to a 29
percent decline in just one year and a 37 percent drop in two years. Single-family homes accounted for
only 870,000 of the existing units available—the lowest level in records dating back to 1982.
• The combination of robust demand and limited supply lifted home prices to their fastest pace in over a
decade. Home prices rose 13.2 percent nationally in March 2021 and by at least 10 percent in 85 of 100
large metro areas and divisions in the first quarter of 2021, up from just 5 markets the year prior.
[INTERACTIVE CHART]
• Following low levels of homebuilding since the mid-2000s, housing construction has finally approached
levels consistent with projected demand. From June 2020 through March 2021, total starts averaged just
over 1.5 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, in line with our housing demand projections
calling for production of 1.5 million units annually in 2018–2028.
• The top concerns among homebuilders in 2020 were the scarcity and cost of building materials. The price
of inputs to new residential construction overall rose by a substantial 14 percent year over year in March
2021. The surge in softwood lumber prices is particularly alarming, up some 83 percent over the same
period. The jump in lumber costs added about $36,000 to the average price of a new single-family home.
Household Growth Accelerating While Population Growth Has Slowed
• The pandemic hit at a time when household growth, the primary driver of housing demand, was strong
and accelerating largely on the strength of increased household formation among young adults. Growth
continued to be robust after the pandemic started as the total number of households was up by 1.5 million
from the first quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021.
• Since 2016, household formation rates among millennials have been rising, and adults under age 35 have
made increasingly large contributions to overall household growth, accounting for an additional 250,000
households annually in 2016–2019.
• Increased working from home could spur additional household growth in suburbs and small metros, which
was on the increase even before the pandemic began.
• In 2019, 5.7 percent of the labor force worked from home full time. In May 2020, the share working from
home because of the pandemic stood at 35.4 percent. Although the total share working from home
receded to 18.3 percent by April 2021, large portions of certain groups continued to work remotely,
including over a third of workers with college degrees and nearly half of workers in business and financial
operations.
US population growth slowed again last year, dipping to 0.35 percent from July 2019 to July 2020. The
addition of just 1.15 million people was about half the 2.37 million originally projected. The unexpected
weakness of population growth pre-dates the pandemic and reflects a combination of factors, including
higher-than-predicted death rates and lower-than-predicted birth rates among the resident population, as
well as the more than 50 percent drop in international immigration from 2016 to 2020.
• The halt in immigration in April 2020 also pulled down overall population growth, reducing the number of
net new immigrants to 477,000 for the year, down from 570,000 in 2019 and 1.07 million per year as
recently as 2016. This decline is significant because foreign-born residents make up large shares of
population and household growth—about a third of the nation’s population growth in 2010–2019, along
with 40 percent of household growth.
Low Interest Rates Fuel an Increase in Homeownership and a Refinancing Boom
• The homeownership rate continued to grow during the pandemic. The national homeownership rate stood
at 65.6 percent in the first quarter of 2021, a 0.3 percentage point increase from a year earlier.
Additionally, the number of homeowners rose by more than 1.3 million over this period, consistent with
average annual gains from 2016 to 2019.
• Record-low interest rates fueled a refinancing boom last year. Following a steady downtrend since the
third quarter of 2019, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit a record low of 2.70 percent in the first week of
January 2021. Declining interest rates resulted in nearly $2.4 trillion in mortgage refinances in 2020, more
than double the volume in the prior year and the highest annual dollar total since 2003.
• For homeowners able to refinance, the savings were significant. Borrowers lowered their interest rate
from 4.3 percent to 3.1 percent on average, the largest reduction since the second quarter of 2015.
Borrowers that refinanced their 30-year fixed mortgages without taking out equity saved more than
$2,800 in principal and interest payments annually on average.
• By the first quarter of this year, half of Hispanic homeowners lost income, somewhat higher than the 43
percent share of Black homeowners and the 39 percent share of Asian homeowners, but well above the 35
percent share of white homeowners. As a result, 17 percent of Black, 16 percent of Hispanic, and 16
percent of Asian homeowners were behind on their mortgage payments in early 2021—more than twice
the 7 percent share of white homeowners.
• During the pandemic, 7.1 million homeowners (14 percent of all mortgage holders) entered forbearance.
Of these, 4.8 million (68 percent) had exited by March 2021. A large majority of those borrowers had
either resolved the delinquency (65 percent) or paid off their loans (23 percent). A small share (8 percent)
were engaged in loss mitigation with their lenders, and the remaining 4 percent were delinquent.
Many Renters Continue to Face Pandemic Hardship
• Renter households continued to face financial hardship in the first quarter of 2021, with 53 percent of
renter households reporting they had lost income since the beginning of the pandemic, and 17 percent
behind on rent. The share of renter households behind on rent payments varied considerably by state,
ranging from a low of 10 percent in Idaho to a high of 27 percent in Mississippi.
• The ability to withstand a temporary loss of income depends largely on having a reserve of wealth and
homeowners have a huge advantage over renters. At last measure in 2019, the median wealth for
homeowners was $254,900—more than 40 times the $6,270 median for renters. Even excluding home equity, the median wealth of owners was $98,500, or more than 15 times that of renters. Wealth also
differed widely by race and ethnicity, as the median wealth of white households was more than seven
times that of Black households and over five times that of Hispanic households.
• Rental demand plunged early in the pandemic, with growth in the number of occupied apartments
dropping from 333,000 units in the first quarter to 176,000 units in the second quarter. But multifamily
construction, which had been closely tracking new rental demand, continued at a brisk pace throughout
2020 and ended the year at a total of 377,000 units, not far below the 2019 level.
• As demand slowed, vacancy rates soared to 10.0 percent in prime urban areas in late 2020, before edging
down to 9.6 percent in early 2021. Meanwhile, vacancy rates fell in prime suburban areas from 7.2 percent
in the first quarter of 2020 to 6.0 percent in the first quarter of 2021.
• After dropping below zero for much of 2020, growth in apartment rents resumed in 2021, reaching 1.3
percent growth year-over-year in the first quarter. But even as rent growth resumed nationally in early
2021, rents continued to decline in seven of the country’s eight largest metros.
The Unequal Financial Effects of the Pandemic Add to Persistent Affordability Challenges
• The financial impacts of the pandemic continued to affect households unequally. At the start of 2021, one
quarter of households earning less than $25,000 were behind on their housing payments, compared to six
percent of households earning $75,000 or more. [INTERACTIVE MAP] Even among the lowest-income
households, racial disparities were pronounced: more than a third of Black renters and a quarter of
Hispanic and Asian renters were behind on rent in early 2021, compared to 17 percent of white renters.
[INTERACTIVE CHART]
• Households who received Economic Impact Payments from the Consolidated Appropriations Act passed in
December 2020 spent the money primarily on food, utilities, and housing costs. Over 60 percent of low-
income households spent the payment at least partially on food, 56 spent some part on utilities, and 53
percent spent at least part of the payment on rent or mortgage.
• Many households were struggling with housing costs before the pandemic began. In 2019, nearly half of all
renter households and one-fifth of all homeowner households spent more than 30 percent of their
incomes on housing. More than three-fifths of renters and nearly half of homeowners earning less than
$25,000 spent more than 50 percent of their incomes on housing in 2019. [INTERACTIVE MAP]
• One sign of the pre-pandemic affordability crisis was the increase in the number of people experiencing
homelessness in January 2020. The number had increased from January 2019 by 13,000 to 580,000 people
total.
• Last year set a record for the number of distinct billion-dollar disasters, with 22 disasters costing $95
billion combined. This fit a trend of more frequent and expensive disasters, accompanied by higher
homeowner spending on disaster repairs, which has increased in real terms from $8 billion in 2000 to $26
billion in 2019.
Download the full report along with interactive maps and data
MEDIA CONTACT
Kerry Donahue, Associate Director of Communications
(617) 495-7640, kerry_donahue@harvard.edu
https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/state-nations-housing-2021
https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/son-2021-home-prices
"After years of underbuilding, housing developers have finally responded to favorable
market conditions, with production increasing in line with projected household growth."
"But the biggest reason behind the constraints on supply is the
underproduction of new homes since the mid-2000s. New con-
struction creates housing choices for current homeowners who
want to move, freeing up existing units for other buyers. Without
that option, owners are more likely to remain in place. As a result,
only a consistent increase in housing construction over a period
of years will provide meaningful growth in inventory in many of
today’s tight markets."
"As a result, total permitting increased 12 percent in the suburban
counties of large metros last year, but fell 2 percent in the core coun-
ties of these markets. Permitting also rose 10 percent in smaller
metros and 9 percent in non-metro areas. Growth was largely on the
single-family side, with double-digit increases in single-family per-
mits in the suburban counties of large markets (17 percent), smaller
metros (15 percent), and non-metro areas (12 percent). About a third
(303,000) of all single-family permits were issued in the suburban
counties of large markets in 2020, while another 38 percent were
issued in small and midsized markets (Figure 9). Single-family per-
mitting in the core counties of large metros also rose 8 percent last
year, to 212,000 units.
Meanwhile, multifamily permits in core areas fell 10 percent in
2020, but at 250,000 units, construction remained close to the
elevated levels of the past half-decade. Following substantial
increases in 2019, the numbers of multifamily permits issued in
the suburban counties of large markets and in smaller metros
declined 2 percent last year. Permitting in non-metro areas, how-
ever, was unchanged."
"CONTINUING CONSTRAINTS ON RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
Restrictive land use regulations are among the most significant bar-
riers to housing production. A 2018 survey of land use practices in
nearly 2,800 communities found that 93 percent imposed minimum
lot sizes in their jurisdictions. Some 40 percent of these communi-
ties set a one-acre minimum, including 27 percent with two-acre
minimums. The stringency of these requirements varied by region,
with 61 percent of jurisdictions in the Northeast imposing at least
a one-acre minimum, compared with 36 percent of communities in
the Midwest, 32 percent in the South, and 29 percent in the West.
In addition, some land use and zoning practices, as well as other
local and state requirements, restrict the amount of land available
for development. These regulations can raise the cost of land, espe-
cially in markets where demand is strong. According to FHFA esti-
mates, the median land value of a quarter-acre lot occupied by an
existing single-family home was $163,500 in 2019, some 60 percent
higher than in 2012. Among the nation’s 100 largest markets, medi-
an land prices were highest on the West Coast, particularly San Jose
($1.2 million), San Francisco ($945,900), and Honolulu ($786,500). In
contrast, median land values were below $50,000 in 38 large mar-
kets located outside the West.
Many communities also require multiple approvals for residential
developments. While ensuring that legitimate public concerns are
addressed, these approvals mean delays, uncertainty, and additional
costs for developers. The process for approving construction of
single-family units takes about 2.5 months on average if the project is permitted under existing rules and 4.3 months if special approval
is required. For multifamily projects, the average review times are
3.1 months and 4.9 months, respectively.
The cost and availability of labor is yet another issue for homebuild-
ers. The average hourly wage in the construction industry increased
by 2.8 percent in March 2021 from a year earlier, to $32.25 per hour.
The steady rise in wages may eventually help to attract workers
from other fields or those returning to the labor market as the pandemic continues to subside. As it is, though, the number of job open-
ings in construction fell sharply on a 12-month rolling basis from
309,000 in early 2020 to 268,000 in early 2021, but remained about
twice the 130,000 openings averaged from 2000 to 2016.
However, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index indicates
that the top concerns for homebuilders in 2020 were the scarcity
and cost of building materials, likely exacerbated by supply chain
problems during the pandemic. Multifamily developers responding
to the NMHC Construction Survey in early 2021 were similarly con-
cerned, with 93 percent of firms reporting an increase in the price
of materials compared with just 5 percent of firms a year earlier.
The surge in softwood lumber prices is particularly alarming, up
some 83 percent year over year in March 2021 (Figure 10). A recent
NAHB analysis found that the jump in lumber costs added about
$36,000 to the average price of a new single-family home. Given
increasing costs for other common construction materials such
as gypsum (up 6 percent) and concrete (up 2 percent), the price of
inputs to new residential construction overall rose by a substantial
14 percent year over year in March 2021."
"THE OUTLOOK
Given the extremely limited supply of homes for sale across the
country, prices will likely continue to rise for the foreseeable future
even if interest rates tick up and more sellers put their homes on
the market. But in the longer term, robust growth in housing con-
struction will be necessary to temper conditions in some of today’s
overheated homebuying markets. However, homebuilders will need
to meet the growing demand for homes of various sizes and at dif-
ferent price points, especially as millennials become a dominant
force in the market."
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/us-housing-market-is-short-5-5-million-homes-nar-says/
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fannie-mae-and-the-housing-markets-inflation-problem/
US housing market is short 5.5 million homes, NAR says
Lobbying organization is calling on "major national commitment" to build housing in US
June 16, 2021, 4:03 pm By Tim Glaze
The National Association of Realtors says the current state of the housing market is absolutely “dire,” the consequence of a housing shortage 30 years in the making.
According to the lobbying group, construction of long-term housing fell 5.5 million units short of historical levels over the past 30 years.
The NAR is calling for a “major national commitment” to build more housing of all types by expanding resources, addressing barriers to new development and making new housing construction an integral part of a national infrastructure strategy.
The report, authored for the NAR by the Rosen Consulting Group, highlighted a “chronic shortage of affordable and available homes [needed to support] the nation’s population,” noting the recent lack of new construction and a prolonged underinvestment in those affordable units as the main culprits.
From 1968 to 2000, the total stock of U.S. housing grew at an average annual rate of 1.7%. In the past 20 years, the U.S. housing stock grew by an annual average rate of 1% — and only 0.7% in the last decade.
In fact, coming off the Great Recession, new home construction in the U.S. between 2010 and 2020 fell 6.8 million units short of what was needed, the report said.
Residential fixed investment (RFI) — the sector of economic activity that accounts for housing construction and renovation — accounted for approximately 5% of the country’s total gross domestic product between 1968 and 2000. In the past 12 years, though, RFI accounted for only 3% of the country’s gross domestic product. This shortfall in RFI, the NAR reported, translated to a $4.4 trillion gap in housing market investment from 2000 to 2020.
Existing-home inventory at the end of April totaled just 1.16 million units, down 20.5% from the prior year.
In looking at underbuilt, major U.S. metros, the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro had an underbuilding gap of 148,650 units in the past nine years — the largest gap in the country, the study claimed. That’s followed only by the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward metro, which reported a gap of 113,200 units; and the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, California metro, which reported a gap of 107,700 units.
“There is a strong desire for homeownership across this country, but the lack of supply is preventing too many Americans from achieving that dream,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “It’s clear from the findings of this report and from the conditions we’ve observed in the market over the past few years that we’ll need to do something dramatic to close this gap.”
Specifically, NAR President Charlie Oppler said adequate increases in housing construction this decade would add an estimated 2.8 million American jobs and $50 billion in nationwide tax revenue.
“A number of factors from the past 20 years are responsible for the massive housing investment gap we see in America today, but what’s important now is that we find solutions that will get us out of this crisis and provide more stability in future markets,” Oppler said. “Additional public funding and policy incentives for construction will very clearly provide huge benefits to our nation’s economy, and our work to close this gap will be particularly impactful for lower-income households, households of color and millennials.”
In order to fill the underbuilding gap in the next 10 years, the NAR estimated that more than 2 million housing units would need to be built per year – an increase of more than 700,000 units per year relative to the pace of housing production in 2020.
Several potential policy changes were offered up by NAR in the report, including addressing the large shortages of capital for the development of affordable housing by expanding resources and maximizing the potential of existing programs, incentivizing shifts in local zoning and regulatory environments to increase the quantity of developable residential space, and increasing housing supply by promoting conversions of underutilized commercial space.
Oppler added that addressing the national underbuilding gap in the housing market will require a “coordinated approach” to the planning, funding and development of infrastructure.
As part of a $1 trillion national infrastructure plan, President Biden has earmarked $318 billion toward the construction and preservation of affordable housing.
I totally agree with you Penn, what's to stop the legislators from experimenting again on the Citizens Liberties and Rights protected by the United States Constitution? BULLDOZER! BULLDOZER! BULLDOZER!
Wouldn't you go as fast as you'd like on the freeways if you knew that you would get your "errors in judgment" corrected by the judicial branch?
Isn't a violation of the US CONSTITUTION on the Liberties of its citizens for over 12.75 years worth more than PROSPECTIVE RELIEF ONLY?
What good is a bulldozer if it is hardly if ever used?
Well both parties are equal opportunity haters of the twins! But Senator Elizabeth Warren for some reason has an affection for strengthening the 4th branch of government to the detriment of the other 3 branches! Take the FHFA and CFPB for instance, she purposely insulated the single directors from POTUS control AND insulated their agencies from Congressional Appropriations Control AND threw in an anti-injunction and Succession clauses to boot!
Yesterday, see just proposed insulating the "beloved" IRS from the Congressional Appropriations Process! I like her dog (did you see it while she was peddling her latest book?) BUT I think she believes that these federal agencies should be as independent as possible and that can interfere with our Constitutional rights as has been the case here. It is almost as if she believes that the Citizens should be ruled by these highly trained Governmental Directors because the Citizens are not capable of ruling themselves! Oh our dear leader is speaking, I must go...
Wouldn't surprise me a bit, this ain't a Judge Judy case! It could have implications for decades (centuries?) to come! We saw Justices Thomas and Gorsuch disdain for having the Judicial Branch rewrite Congress's misdeeds, last Summer in Seila Law, we'll see what happens!
In a lot of ways, the Collins case kind of boils down to whether or not the USSCT turns a cheek to the Nationalization of two private corporations OR do they stop it dead in it's tracks! I watched this Oxford style debate the other day at NYU (about 90 minutes) where a Libertarian Economist and Socialist/Communist Economist (both American) debated Capitalism v Socialism:
That's the pernicious cycle that only the SCOTUS CAN BREAK! If the legislators know they can keep inventing novel structures of federal agencies that lord over certain segments of society in VIOLATION OF THE CITIZENS CONSTITUTIONAL FREEDOMS and that the Judiciary will simply rewrite their mistakes a decade plus later (and then only after considerable litigation expense), why would they STOP coming up with these crazy structures for the 4th branch of government? Something has got to be done, but what? BULLDOZER! BULLDOZER! BULLDOZER!
Our latest Overlords will be VERY pleased! "We are excited to see continued interest in our Green Bonds and the overall desire in the market for more impactful investing. Here are some of the impacts of our cumulative Green Bond issuances from 2012 to 2020"
Our Next Chapter in Green Bonds Leadership
June 16, 2021
Laurel Davis
Senior Vice President – Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG)
This week, Fannie Mae released our annual Green Bond Impact Report, "Our Next Chapter in Green Bonds Leadership," showcasing the tangible environmental, social, and economic impacts generated by our green financing and green bonds. Over the last decade, Fannie Mae's Green Bond Business has built on our company's mission to expand access to affordable housing through the support of more resilient and sustainable homes and properties across the country. By harnessing the power of the capital markets, we are making important strides in accelerating the greening of the U.S. housing supply, reducing the housing sector’s carbon footprint, contributing to a low-emissions economy, lowering utility costs for homeowners and renters, and creating jobs, while offering high-quality and transparent investment opportunities that provide measurable positive results.
Since establishing our Multifamily Green Financing Business in 2010 and issuing our first Multifamily Green Bond in 2012, we have grown this business to nearly $88 billion in green bond issuances as of year-end 2020.
Fannie Mae's Green Bond Business also marked an important milestone in 2020. Building on our proven leadership and expertise with multifamily green bonds, we expanded our Green Bond offerings to include single-family properties with the issuance of our first Single-Family Green Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) on the 50th anniversary of Earth Day. These MBS are an innovative offering backed exclusively by loans financing newly constructed residential homes that are ENERGY STAR Certified (Version 3.0 or higher), which on average are 20% more efficient than single-family homes built to standard building code. The loans underlying these MBS meet all of Fannie Mae's underwriting standards and are fully guaranteed by Fannie Mae.
In our first year, we issued approximately $94 million in Single-Family Green MBS. While that represents only a small part of our overall Single-Family Business, we are still in the early stages, which is by design. We started small so we can develop this robust single-family green business over time to meet market demand. As our track record with multifamily green financing has shown, we can – and we intend to – leverage our scale and capacity to continue to build the green bond market through both our single-family and multifamily issuances. This is a significant opportunity for our organization to create even greater positive impact through our Green Bond offerings and is an important step in aligning our business activities with measurable environmental, social, and governance (ESG) outcomes. And, it demonstrates our commitment to leveraging our position in the marketplace to explore and pioneer other new solutions that promote the growth of an active, global green bond market – one that supports more affordable and sustainable communities and reduces housing's environmental impact.
The housing sector leaves a significant footprint – residential households account for roughly 20% of all greenhouse gas emissionsi and use 9.7 trillion gallons of water annually across the United Statesii. As a leading provider of mortgage financing in the U.S. and the largest issuer of green bonds in the world, Fannie Mae is uniquely positioned to be a bridge between the capital markets and the housing market to reduce that footprint. By purchasing mortgages backed by properties that meet our rigorous criteria for energy and water efficiency and/or renewable energy generation, and packaging those mortgages into MBS, we provide an opportunity for global investors to support investments that make a positive difference. In turn, investors are drawn to our Green Bond Business for its robust quality, integrity, and transparency, and because of its third-party validation. We're proud that both our Multifamily and Single-Family Green Bond Frameworks are aligned to ICMA Green Bond Principles and have been evaluated as Light Green or better by CICERO, a leading global provider of green ratings for bonds.
We are excited to see continued interest in our Green Bonds and the overall desire in the market for more impactful investing. Here are some of the impacts of our cumulative Green Bond issuances from 2012 to 2020*:
Green Single-Family and Multifamily properties financed by Fannie Mae are estimated to save 9.5 billion kilowatt British Thermal Units (kBtu) of source energy and prevent 634,000 metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e) of greenhouse gas emissions annually. That is the equivalent of removing roughly 137,000 passenger vehicles from the road for a year.
Green Multifamily properties financed by Fannie Mae are estimated to save 8.5 billion gallons of water annually.**
Green Multifamily properties financed by Fannie Mae are estimated to save tenants $146 million in utility costs, or an average of $184 per family, per year.** We know these savings can make a real difference for many households, as more than 90% of all multifamily units we financed in 2020 were affordable to families earning at or below 120% of the median income in their area.
In Green Single-Family properties, homeowners are estimated to save $843 in utility costs per home, per year,*** helping to make housing more affordable over the long term. .
Fannie Mae's Green Bonds Business has resulted in 872,000 Multifamily properties being retrofitted or green building-certified,** and has created or supported an estimated 224,000 well-paid jobs.
An estimated $9.5 billion in wages were paid to construct or retrofit green properties through 2020, contributing $19.9 billion to U.S. GDP.
Each dollar invested through Fannie Mae Green Bonds generates $2.83 in estimated economic output.
* All numbers are based on one-year estimated impacts and reflect both Single-Family and Multifamily issuances unless otherwise noted.
** Includes estimated impacts only from Fannie Mae Multifamily Green Bonds.
*** Includes estimated impacts only from Fannie Mae Single-Family Green Bonds.
Behind these numbers are real-life stories of our Green Bond Business at work. For example, a $25 million Fannie Mae Green Rewards Mortgage Loan helped Chandler Village in Arizona make substantial improvements that will result in significant long-term energy savings. All 127 units in the Chandler Village property are affordable for tenants earning 50% or less of Area Median Income. The rehabilitation will include the installation of energy-efficient windows, appliances, and HVAC systems; low-flow faucets and showerheads; and LED lighting upgrades. With Green Rewards proceeds also going toward the installation of solar panels on the roof and carports, Chandler Village is expected to see estimated total energy savings of more than 72%.
Creating positive societal impact through our business is in Fannie Mae's DNA. We believe that doing well as a company is inseparable from doing good for the communities we serve. Our Green Bond Business, and our overall ESG strategy, builds on our long-standing mission to expand access to affordable, stable housing and improves the lives of the people who reside in the homes and properties we finance, while contributing to local economies and reducing the overall environmental footprint of the housing sector. You can read more about this commitment and the tangible benefits of our efforts in our 2020 Green Bond Impact Report.
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/perspectives/our-next-chapter-green-bonds-leadership
Press Release
Inflation Risk Takes Center Stage as Strong Economic Growth Expected to Moderate
June 16, 2021
Housing-related Components Predicted to Become Key Inflation Driver
WASHINGTON, DC – Economic growth expectations for full-year 2021 were revised modestly upward to 7.1 percent, one-tenth higher than the previous forecast, due to stronger-than-expected consumer spending data year to date, according to the June 2021 commentary from the Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. The ESR Group also continues to forecast a deceleration in the recently rapid growth trajectory, projecting economic growth to slow to 5.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, as discussed in the ESR Group’s latest Housing Insights piece, housing appears poised to become a meaningful driver of inflation over the next year and a half, contributing to the ESR Group’s prediction that domestic inflation measures will remain near 5 percent through year-end 2021 – before decelerating to approximately 3 percent by the end of 2022 – well above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0-percent inflation target. At the moment, the ESR Group’s large upward revision to its inflation expectations has not materially changed its growth forecast, because while it sees underlying inflation pressure building, it believes the factors driving current inflation to be largely transitory. Even so, the downside risks associated with potentially persistently higher inflation, including a more aggressive pace of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, could drag on growth over the forecast horizon.
While demand for housing remains quite strong, the ESR Group’s latest forecast reiterates that supply-side factors continue to significantly limit construction, mortgage origination, and home sale activity. In fact, the ESR Group meaningfully downgraded its forecast for second and third quarter home sales – to 6.6 million and 6.5 million, respectively, from 6.9 million and 6.7 million in the prior forecast – due to the ongoing lack of available listings and a softening pace of new construction due to supply constraints. The ESR Group’s 30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast was little changed at 3.0 percent and 3.3 percent on a full-year 2021 and 2022 basis, respectively.
“Strong demand for housing continues to run up against a long-running lack of supply,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “We’ve seen this disconnect lead to rapid house prices gains over this past year, but we believe it will soon reveal itself within inflation measures as well. Demographic factors remain favorable for a strong housing market and many of the supply constraints that homebuilders face are likely to persist in the near term, so this upward pricing pressure is not likely to be as transitory as many of the current inflation drivers.”
Duncan continued: “Nonetheless, in the past housing has served as an intermediate-term inflation hedge. If interest rates rise to reflect the increase in inflation based on an expectation of tighter future monetary policy, home sales would likely moderate along with house price appreciation.”
Visit the Economic & Strategic Research site at fanniemae.com to read the full June 2021 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.
About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae helps make the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and affordable rental housing possible for millions of people in America. We partner with lenders to create housing opportunities for families across the country. We are driving positive changes in housing finance to make the home buying process easier, while reducing costs and risk. To learn more, visit:
fanniemae.com | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Instagram | YouTube | Blog
Media Contact
Matthew Classick
202-752-3662
Fannie Mae Newsroom
https://www.fanniemae.com/news
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https://www.fanniemae.com/resources/img/about-fm/fm-building.tif
Fannie Mae Resource Center
1-800-2FANNIE
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
Given the inability of BOTH the Executive and Legislative Branches to reverse the Nationalization of these two private corporations (it's FREE MONEY for the US fisc!) since August 17, 2012, I wouldn't be surprised if they used the bulldozer or some other meaningful remedy. They could add a new consideration to severabilty analysis limited to federal government conservatorships where a bulldozer is appropriate when the government decides to take all the profits of its Conservatee in perpetuity exclusively for itself.
"Unlike past budgets, this current budget did not mention use of the “Temporary Payroll Tax Cut Continuation Act of 2011(link is external)” (TPTCCA), which is a 10 basis point fee that has been added onto every mortgage originated by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA since 2011, and was used to finance a payroll tax holiday. This fee is expected to end in August or September of this year and the implications are meaningful as the government could only charge the fee while the GSEs’ are under government control. This omission could suggest the Administration intends to end conservatorship in the future or it might be a potential funding source at a later time for other uses. NAR opposes the use of the fees on homebuyers to finance general expenses of the government, especially outside of housing.
The budget mentions how the government currently holds financial interest in the GSEs valued at $109 billion. The Treasury holds warrants to purchase 79.9% of shares in both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were valued at $13 billion in 2020.
Proposes $2.4 billion annually from 2022 through 2026 totaling $12 billion for the Capital Magnet Fund (CMF). Contributions to the Housing Trust Fund (HTF) would grow steadily from $90 million in 2023 to a peak of $8.4 billion in 2028 for a total of $45 billion from 2022 to 2031. These annual contributions dwarf the $1.1 billion in combined contributions in 2020. The increased investment in the CMF is linear, while HTF’s funding rises steadily before tapering. This latter pattern of outlays may suggest a fee source for the HTF such as the 10 basis point fee rather than tax outlays. The original TPTCC raised $36.7 billion over ten years. Thus, extending the fee 10 more years would keep guarantee fees constant and could raise the $45 billion sum earmarked for the HTF as mortgage balances are expected to rise over the next decade with a growing housing stock and home prices."
https://www.nar.realtor/washington-report/presidents-fy-2022-budget-and-tax-proposals
Your shareholder dollars hard at work: https://www.fhfa.gov/mobile/Pages/public-affairs-detail.aspx?PageName=FHFA-Issues-2020-Report-to-Congress.aspx
"In FY 2020, FHFA assessed the regulated entities a
total of $311.4 million, including $49.9 million to
support the Office of Inspector General. FHFA issues
assessment notices to the regulated entities semi-
annually, with the collections occurring on October 1
and April 1. "
We were denied restrospective relief (barely) in the 5th Circuit EnBanc Panel ruling and the SCOTUS will likely clear up the anti-injunction and Succession clauses as well. I think a full blown trial exposing the full extent of the governments abusive and coercive acts will not be something the government lawyers look forward to.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/many-states-have-given-out-under-5percent-of-rental-assistance-.html
Well I think David Thompson will effectively corner the government in the Collins case! Multi billion dollar Litigation is like a chess match and with a positive ruling from the SCOTUS, the government escaping from a "Checkmate" scenario will be extremely limited!
One would think after all these years of Discovery Documents exposing the nws for what it was, that Uncle Suggy would take one shred of responsibility, but that seems to be asking too much!
Stay long and strong, I believe Justice should prevail in the end! And God Bless your Mother for not letting these horrible government officials steam roll the shareholders personal property rights!
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/rents-for-single-family-homes-just-saw-the-largest-gains-in-nearly-15-years.html
Gee, I wonder if housing will become more expensive if the US Congress passes laws that make owning real property way more expensive?
Vinny:
I wouldn't be surprised if to date these 20+ lawsuits have cost more than $100M! It's a shame the citizens have to fight their own government to prevent them from pilfering two private corporations and consequently their shareholders!
Looks like she hired Jones Day, a top shelf litigation group. Guess who works there now:
https://www.jonesday.com/en/news/2021/06/hashim-mooppan-returns-to-jones-day-as-partner-in-issues--appeals-practice-in-washington
https://fedsoc.org/contributors/hashim-mooppan
Generally speaking, attorneys typically ask for a maximum recoverable amount if the allegations in the complaint are true. I'm pretty sure that's what they asked for in your Mothers case. It just seems ridiculous that Americans have to petition the courts to get the American government to simply follow the law!
No one has ever seen a temporary conservatorship that lasts 12.75+ years where the Conservator agrees to hand over their wards profits to the UST into perpetuity!
The Net Worth Swipes days are numbered and I wouldn't be surprised if the SCOTUS takes some drastic action to reign in this abusive and coercive use of governmental power on the citizens.
I think the shareholders mantra is, "WE WILL NEVER SURRENDER!". You've got to admit, Uncle Suggy has acted very bizarre and abandoned HERA along time ago (the lure of easy money my friend!). Let's see if the SCOTUS puts them on the right side of the law.
The nws was sold to the American public as a "time out while we let the US Congress decide what the direction of the housing finance market will be in the future". THIS CONTRAVENES THE MANDATE OF HERA AND I DON'T THINK THEY WILL GET AWAY WITH IT!
MR. THOMPSON (in response to a Justice Alito question): Well, Your Honor, we do
think that this qualifies under Weaver for being
a structural error for two reasons.
Number one, there are interests beyond
the outcome that is produced. There's the
interest in accountability. And, also, it's
hard to measure the effects.
That's why this Court, presumably, in
Seila Law and Free Enterprise, said plaintiffs
don't have to create a but-for world. Federal
courts aren't well suited to psychoanalyzing
coordinate branches of government and what they
would do in a hypothetical world, and so where
it's hard to measure the effects -- and that's
particularly true here,"
Later there was this exchange:
JUSTICE KAGAN: I mean, in a case like
this, Mr. Thompson, where we're trying to figure
out the proper remedy, I mean, it's -- it's --
it's a -- it's a kind of equitable question,
isn't it, and we're trying to figure out what
position you would have been in absent a
constitutional violation. Why -- why isn't that
the right question?
MR. THOMPSON: Well, I think Footnote
12 of Free Enterprise and Seila Law just last
term rejected that. They said plaintiffs don't
have to try to recreate a but-for world. And,
here, if we -- it shows why. We'd have to go
back to 2009 and see what would have happened if
Director Watt, for example, had been there
throughout the entire time and, you know, would
the President have preferred to keep the money
at Fannie and Freddie and spend it on affordable
housing rather than send it all to the
Republican-controlled House of Representatives
and the Treasury?
So that's a difficult --
JUSTICE KAGAN: Does that mean,
Mr. Thompson, that we have to do a great deal
more than invalidate the -- the -- the Third
Amendment and everything that follows from it?
I mean, why shouldn't we go back to the -- the
-- the -- the -- the First or the Second?
MR. THOMPSON: Well, Your Honor, we
focused on the Third Amendment because that's
the -- the feature of this that rearranged the
capital structure, but, as we made clear to theFifth Circuit Court of Appeals, we are perfectly
content with all of these arrangements, which,
as we say in the complaint, were a concrete
life-preserver. It's like getting a credit card
with a double-digit interest rate that you can't
repay the debt on. It's not debt, but you can't
pay the money back, and so --
JUSTICE KAGAN: Thank you,
Mr. Thompson.
MR. THOMPSON: -- we would be
perfectly content with it being thrown out.
CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS: Justice
Gorsuch.
You will like this one from Janet Yellen: "Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, an economist who headed the Fed from 2014 to 2018, said on June 5 that while employment remains more than 7 million jobs below pre-pandemic levels, increased retirements could mean "we don't need to regain quite that many to get back to full employment."
HEY JANET, I KNOW ALOT OF PEOPLE WAITING TO RETIRE IF YOU CAN JUST GIVE THEM BACK THEIR STOLEN PROPERTY!
Bypassing the US Congressional Appropriations Process for federal agencies seems like one indicia of a Separation of Powers problem in the future (as mentioned in Seila Law v CFPB). Letting MC increase the FHFA budget 18% YOY WITH NO GOVERNMENTAL OVERSIGHT FROM ANYONE IS OUTRAGEOUS!
From todays WSJ: "The Massachusetts Senator last month introduced a bill that would nearly triple the annual IRS budget to $31.5 billion, which would be indexed to inflation and come from money "in the Treasury not otherwise appropriated," such as from interest that the Federal Reserve earns from its asset portfolio. This is what Ms. Warren and Democrats did when they created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which gets its funding directly from the Fed.
The IRS would essentially become another mandatory budget program like Social Security and Medicare. Its funding would be automatic and not subject to the annual Congressional review that affects "discretionary" spending for most federal departments, including the Pentagon. Congress could still haul the IRS Commissioner up for hearings. But without the risk of having to answer to Congressional appropriators for its budget, the tax agency would have little to worry about.
Republicans in Congress cut the IRS budget during the Obama Presidency after the agency targeted conservative nonprofits in the Lois Lerner debacle. Democrats say the cuts have frustrated tax enforcement. Their plan would make sure the IRS doesn't have to pay a price in the future for politically targeting taxpayers or leaking returns. The potential for abuse would grow since Mr. Biden's plan would also give the IRS access to bank account inflows and outflows.
This funding shield is a bad precedent for the rest of government. Why stop at the IRS? Here's how this might work: Treasury issues trillions of dollars in government debt to finance new mandatory spending. The Fed would monetize the debt with bond purchases and remit interest payments to Treasury, which would finance the mandatory spending.
This non-virtuous cycle would repeat, and Congress would see its power to limit spending or set annual priorities diminished even more than it already has been. Congress would cede even more of its most important constitutional authority to the administrative state. Rule by an unelected bureaucracy advances to the detriment of self-government.
Even if this funding scheme is limited to the IRS, a tax collection agency shielded from Congressional budget supervision is one definition of tyranny.