Uncomfortably idiosyncratic
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
can you call your mother and complain to her please
yes, please hold till .27 - i'll sell you my one million very soon, thanks pedro canada
based on today's candlestick it looks like a bearish doji, because it closed at the low end of the range. I would be more bullish had it closed midway. chart needs another day or two to reset.
day 2 of reversal confirmed with PREMARKET news...
this will be the 4th try to crack .022 - needs to happen today IMO
anyone catch that 1.6 block.. a little dilution here and there but the majority has been done..
here we go chin!
of course its going to reverse a little, its lunch time, next leg this afternoon...technicals are beautiful..
ask very thin...heading to the 2s
1.6 dumped... and not enough buyers to chew threw the ask.. over 101 million shares traded this month, dilution to the gills..
there is no floor with toxic dilution....another milly on the ask...eom
their aren't enough buyers to absorb the rate of dilution...
93 million shares traded this month...
i called yesterday, and woman was totally clueless...not that it really matters its all written in the tea leaves, doesn't surprise me either.
i meant .0115 which would fit the patten
i think CERP get's walked down to at least a penny..i'm looking for a close of .0155..a reversal isn't gonna happen without a news event either.. for now the black hole vaccum from dilution exists for new buyers...
another 1.1 million shares released.. its still a little too early to get excited
and the drip continues
should move north now for a little bit
VERT and CANT on the ask, VERT just got off, dumped a million + shares..
Listen to the Nov 14th CC, its short near the 20min marker. Skip the CEO's grandiose prose and listen to the CFO and analyst's question.
And if you listened to the last 4 CC's you'd see just how bad the train wreck turns out to be as the share price declines. It's kinda cool.
CEO is so delusional.. must be that God- complex
this scam dog just needs a mo-mo mama
Doji - i was simply pointing out that the senior loan they entered into with Wells Fargo a 7% has now come back to haunt them - the latest 8K indicated they can't make interest payments, about 300k per quarter... 600k now late starting from JUNE. Of the 12.5 million loaned, they still have 10 Mill left (be it through 2016) that is added stress to the already accounts outstanding they are in the midst of collecting.
CFO stated 20-30 million shares to be added by the end of the first quarter - YES there is dilution going on - the faucet is still dripping, just not as much from recent weeks. conversion is moving target depending on when the holder want to cash in...and let me tell you they are cash in..
Their Italy plant should have started ramping Q4 of 2012, plus India...
CEO may speak 4 different languages, but he clearly does not know the language of finance, the interim CFO is just mopping up the mess.
damaged goods...until a press release put out
g
Cereplast had a $1.8 million net loss or $0.12 per share in Q1 2011 as compared to a $1.7 million net loss in Q1 2010 or $0.17 per share. Cereplast's CFO, Heather Sheehan, said that gross margins will gradually improve throughout the year and the company expects it to be over 20% by the end of the year 2011.
Management has said that in order to break even, Cereplast would have to have annual revenues of between $30 - $35 million. Its guidance for 2011 is between $28-$34 million. By my calculations, if Cereplast hits its guidance, it will still have a loss for the year.
For example, let's say that Cereplast's revenue for 2011 totals $34 million, the top of its range. That's another $27 million for the year. Now let's estimate its gross margin for the rest of the year averages 15%, then that makes a gross profit of $4 million for the last three quarters. Then we can assume SG&A and R&D expenses are conservatively about $2 million per quarter, so $4M - ($2M*3) equals a loss of $2 million for the remaining three quarters, for a total loss of $3.8 million for the year, and that doesn't even include interest expense.
The company just took on a large amount of convertible debt. At a 7% interest rate, it will cost Cereplast $12.5M x .07 = $875,000 for the next year.
Furthermore, I don't believe Cereplast will even reach its predicted revenues of $28-$34 million this year. I have spoken with Cereplast's investor relations and they give no specifics of how the company came to its guidance of $28-$34 million. They just said it is from "scenario probabilities." They don't say what percentage will be compostables and what will be sustainables. When I tried to get down to specifics, they didn't give me much. They ended up basically saying that people who invest in Cereplast don't do it because of specifics, they invest because they see the value and potential of bio-based plastics, and Cereplast is a pure play on this. So therefore, it's a good investment. I have witnessed this attitude in Cereplast's conference calls as well. Management keeps things simple for investors and dances around inquisitive questions. You get the impression that Cereplast's management have a lot of knowledge behind the scenes that they don't want to talk about for some reason. I guess it's because they don't want to confuse people.
Some 85% of Cereplast's revenues come from the EU. Right now, the so-called PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) are at risk of going bankrupt. Paying off debt is much more important to those countries at the moment than doing what's best for the environment. A country like Italy, which is burdened with debt, can't afford to give Cereplast too many subsidies and tax breaks to fund its plant. This is not good because Cereplast expects government support for its plant. Even the EU countries doing well like Germany and France aren't going to want to spend too much tax dollars on environmental products because their economies are also affected by the PIIGS contagion. All those EU countries will have to make spending cuts, and usually "green" spending is among the first that gets cut.
In my opinion, the convertible loan terms are a bad deal for Cereplast shareholders, but a great deal for the lenders. The deal was $12.5 million in 7% senior convertible notes due June 1, 2016. The notes are convertible into common stock at 172 shares per $1000 of notes, which comes out to about $5.80 per share. If the company does well, and all the notes are converted, that would dilute the shares by 2.15 million shares, or 13.6% of the outstanding shares. Since the notes are senior, all the bondholders have to worry about is if Cereplast goes bankrupt, which probably won't happen because it will be able to issue more common stock. So basically the bondholders have no risk and are getting a nice 7% return. But if Cereplast manages to knock it out of the park, they don't get left out. The fact that the terms are so favorable to the bondholders means bankruptcy must be a material risk for the company. In general, bond purchasers are allowed access to more information than shareholders are. I can guarantee that they know a lot more about the interworkings of the company than shareholders are privy to.
There is also a good chance that Cereplast will do another share dilution in the next year or two, because it will need more funds for the Italy plant. If the company issues more debt, it will probably have to do so at too high of a rate, definitely above 7%. That's because the debt would be junior to this recent debt offering. Therefore, it would be more prudent to do a share offering.
Mr. Scheer said:
There seems to be a new era developing in India. As of April 2011, India has placed a ban on the sale and storage of plastic bags. The market for bioplastic in India has the potential to be five times that of Italy.
What does all this mean for the stock? It's hard to tell because we don't know how much competition Cereplast has in places like Italy, other countries in the EU, and India.
a milly on thee bid, oh lordy
Someone slap that ASK!
clearly this guy sees something no one else does..
The Reporting Persons beneficially own 3,082,171 shares of Common Stock representing 8.98% of all of the 34,340,000 outstanding shares of Common Stock outstanding as of December 19, 2012, as reported by the Issuer on their website. Of the 3,082,171 shares held by the Reporting Persons on behalf of their clients: Interinvest Corporation Inc. purchased 2,777,321 shares or 8.09% of Issuer's outstanding shares; and Interinvest (Bermuda) Ltd. purchased 304,850 shares for clients for a total of 0.89% of the Issuer's outstanding shares.
and clearly he's under water
just gotta take out NITE and ATDF... the seller is gone for now
you are correct.. Magna Group is giving Cereplast tranches until Feb 15 2013
Today's 8k may be the nail in the coffin MT - Technicals don't matter anymore, this puppy is on the road to serfdom.
MT take out .017's money bags, pretty pweese
A short film with the CEO
http://vimeo.com/focusforwardfilms/semifinalists/51920180
Posted Jan 3rd on their twitter account
Even though it states a 60 day extension in the 8K as amended, the extension started on January 2nd... i believe since the share price was already so low, Ironridge decided to convert most if not all of its notes these past several days. JMJ was probably converting in the prior weeks..
By no means am I in love with this POS, there is a reason it got to where it is. It is rather funny to watch how management screws themselves.
a small speculative play to be continued...
Ironridge Global gives Cereplast 5million to keep operating as a company, which equals 20,000,000 shares to convert...how many shared traded today... over 20 million...
and the dilution valve is ON and Flowing..
watching the DMI closely, its good for now
targets are .056 then .08... not interested in get caught in bear traps though. it is oversold, but its also not going to bounce very hard either...unless they ink a contract...they are still trying to recover on accounts unpaid for, about 10 million... and "expect" to return to profitability in the 2nd half of 2013.. won't be staying to find out.. just be aware... JMJ Financial, Magna, and Horizon Holdings are all have convertable notes, but i'm hoping that they have stopped at least for a couple days..
thanks.. this should move just like SAPX... bounce only, the rest is dilution. Company is rat infested
what does #6 on the BOB mean.? sorry to ask such a donkey question?
Yes, In order to continue operating as a company the Cereplast had to sign deals with JMJ and Ironridge a.k.a toxic financing, much of the volume over the past weeks have been dilution, it appears the dilution valve has stopped, here for a bounce only.
sellers are in control, plus more dilution, looks like there is bid supper at .0165 its going lower.. im out