Fully invested in secondary oils (100% long)
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cash - why is that bad for consumers?
cash - US pays off bonds at maturity... it always has and it always will
peg - yes, there could be some pressure from the US and China to stop the "meddling" sometime soon (or later). We will cross that bridge when/if we come to it.
When Mexico changed the dollar/peso exchange rate from 12-to-1 to 24-to-1, nothing happened. No big buying or selling of either currency (no panic)... When England devalued the pound nothing happened. No big buying or selling of either currency (no panic). In fact I don't know of a single instance in the history of the world in which a change in the exchange rate triggered a panic.
There are trillions of dollars floating around the planet. These dollars are constantly seeking any and every opportuninty to make a return or interest on investment (plenty of liquidity). $2 billion a day is peanuts!
tech - where on earth did you ever get such ideas? I know you didn't dream them up yourself, because you're not that crazy! In the words of the great budha, "believe nothing, no matter who says it, even if I say it, unless it makes sense to you"... Now tell me seriously, does what you just said make sense to you?
Boa noite!
peg - why does everyone think the yen will strengthen alonside the yuan against the dollar? (I would like to hear just one logical reason)
Also, why does everyone think that a sudden removal of the peg would cause some kind of a panic in the financial markets? (I would like to hear just one logical reason)
In any case, it is expected to happen sometime between now and next weekend.
As long as they are held until maturity, they certainly can cash them in without trashing the markets!
norviz - the "immediate effect" would be an increase in the price of chinese goods in the US, and a decrease in the price of US goods in China! Therefore the immediate effect would be a drop in the sales of chinese goods, and a jump in the sales of US goods (both home and abroad)! This would mean higher earnings for US industry in the current quarter! Since the increase in the price of chinese goods would be offset by a decrease in sales, it's short-term inflationary effect would be mild and temporary. The Fed is committed to a gradual approach, and isn't going to panic over this one-time spike in prices...
The U.S. currency posted its biggest weekly rally in five this week against the euro, and got a boost yesterday as the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said its index of regional business fell to 65.6 in April, higher than the 62.5 reading expected in a Bloomberg survey.
U.S. spending rose 0.6 percent in March, more than the median forecast for a 0.4 percent gain, the Commerce Department said separately.
'Bigger and Bigger'
``Chicago was strong and the Fed will obviously hike next week' and likely again the following meeting, said Karl Halligan, chief currency trader in New York at CIC Bank. ``The rate differential with the euro zone is getting bigger and bigger. My preference is dollars over euros.' The dollar will rally to $1.28 in the next few weeks, he said.
Fed policy makers will raise their target rate by a quarter- point, to 3 percent, for the eighth straight meeting on May 3, according to the median forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The European Central Bank's benchmark rate is 2 percent.
``I'm bearish on the euro,' said Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior investment strategist in Hong Kong at CFC Securities Ltd. ``As far as growth is concerned, all the signs are bad for the euro region.' The currency may fall to $1.28 next week, he said.
French unemployment rose in March, pushing the jobless rate to the highest in more than five years, a government report showed yesterday. The number of unemployed rose by 7,000 to 2.77 million, pushing the jobless rate to 10.2 percent, the highest since December 1999.
Germany's six leading institutes this week cut their estimate for growth in Europe's largest economy to 0.7 percent this year. Surveys this week showed French manufacturers were more pessimistic in April than any time in the past 18 months, while German business confidence fell to a 19-month low.
That's what I said - "It's already discounted!"
("Yen Gains for Third Week on Speculation China Will Loosen Peg")
4god - only the yuan will rise, not the yen. The yen is already floating free, and has fully discounted all of the above. There is no reason whatsoever that the yen should rise. Also, there is no reason that the Fed would raise interest rates. Therefore, no reason to fear inflation or recession. On the contrary, it should create a new boom in the economy as it gives the US a level playing field in the enormous chinese market!
Oh well, at least we agree that it will be good news for the oil industry. Good luck, and good trading!
aire - high/low indicator also made higher low in spite of the lower low on the Naz...
http://trending123.com/_nahl__.htm
put/call ratios bullish as well...
http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx
Manti - You and everyone else! "When everyone thinks the same, nobody is thinking very much"... What you don't seem to understand, is that the US has no "devaluation" planned for the US dollar... On the contrary, it wants to strengthen the US dollar by convincing the chinese to let the yuan float freely. Then the US can compete fairly in the chinese market... (pretty basic stuff).
Whose best interest does the Fed have foremost on it's agenda, the Chinese?
cash - the only "devaluation" of the US dollar will be in relation to the yuan. As far as any other currency is concerned, it has already been discounted. The dollar (and stocks) will rally in anticipation of an improvement in the US balance of trade. Popular opinion that it will cause a jump in interest rates, is a myth. The Fed will continue to maintain a low interest rate environment. It will be great news for the economy because it will greatly reduce the trade in-balance, and will create new jobs to fullfill the demand for US goods and services in China. Let's face it, if it were not a good thing, the Fed would not be persuing it in the first place!
The US is the largest consumer of energy in the world!... Anything that stimulates the US economy, will further increase the demand for energy. JMHO, we'll see.
frenchee - they should all equally benefit.
Panic Buying Spike ahead... dollar/yuan peg release imminent... great news for the US dollar, the US economy, and the US stock market (especially the oils). Rumor has it that it will happen sometime between now and next weekend...
RALLY TIME!!!
index futures soaring! - MELT-UP TIME!!!
http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/
frank - IMO NDX has also completed ABC down (from December high)
Big rally coming soon to a theatre near you!
Naz Double-Bottom on less NH-NL (bullish)
http://trending123.com/_nahl__.htm
RALLY TIME!!!
chris - IMHO XOM has bottomed!
Thursday "reversal day" - Friday "up day"...
put/call ratios bullish, TICK improving, TRIN topping...
http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx
http://www.marketswing.com/realtime.htm
RALLY TIME!!!
bad news! - (normal at market bottoms)
the big picture (very oversold)...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX,uu[h,a]waclyyay[df][pb13!b50!f][vc60][iUp14,3,3!Lc2...
RALLY TIME!!!
Buzz - What's he babbling about now? (I've had him on iggy ever since he made that ridiculous comment about a free China being more dangerous than a communist China)
futures moving higher - another gap and run will trample the bearish majority! (Don't say I didn't warn-ya)
http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/
beginning 533 up from 1982
RALLY TIME!!!
"ascending triangle bottom" on NDX...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQQ,uu[w,a]daoayyay[da][pf][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lk14]&...
RALLY TIME!!!
high/low indicator still says we've bottomed... (higher lows)
http://trending123.com/_nahl__.htm
RALLY TIME!!!
Buy signal today on XOM MACD...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=XOM,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pf][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lah12,26,9]...
RALLY TIME!!!
EOG Resources net income more than doubles (EOG) By Lisa Sanders
DALLAS (MarketWatch) -- EOG Resources (EOG) rode high commodity prices and strong production to a first-quarter profit more than double last year's earnings, the oil and gas producer announced after the bell Tuesday. EOG Resources said its net income was $200.8 million, or 83 cents per share, compared with income of $98.1 million, or 42 cents per share, earned a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call expected per-share earnings of 79 cents, on average. EOG Resources closed at $47.75, down 56 cents, before the announcement.
john - good job.. you're making nice trades!
cheers,
Robert
Nope!... that's pretty obvious!
my fast broadband connection is as good as the one I had in California!... (1,000 KBPS)
frank - not necessarily, a green close would suffice. GNSS candle is bullish "long lower body"
frank - "rally thru close" will fix that...
check out the candle on my Naz "canary" GNSS
john - 5 waves down from HOD complete...
RALLY TIME!!!
higher thru Friday - confirms weekly "key reversal" bottom...
(just like the one in January)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$INDU,uu[w,a]waoayyay[dc][pf][vc60]<i&pref=G
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]waoayyay[dc][pf][vc60]&pref=G
PCR/TICK/TRIN looking good... RALLY TIME!!!
http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx
http://www.marketswing.com/realtime.htm
tech - we obviously have different counts...
I have ABC down from top complete...
("that's what makes a market")
GL/GT
aire - so we have another buy signal!...
Dow near lower Bollinger band as 21-day ma of adv-dec vol is close to turning positive...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$INDU,uu[w,a]dacayyay[db][pb50!d20,3!f][vc60]<i&p....
RALLY TIME!!!
the stock market is currently undervalued...
http://www.markettrak.com/safety.html
RALLY TIME!!!
aire - not always early - 2 years late on '82 bottom, and right on the money on several other bottoms and tops... However, I agree that his overall track record is pretty dismal... Sometimes I think guys like Prechter and Granville are usually bearish, because that enables them to get more subscribers (and make a lot more money)... IMO They may just be saying they are bearish because they know that is what most market-letter subscribers want to hear!
peg - right now I am mega-bullish!...
In fact I am so bullish, that I expect a virtual "MELT-UP" for 2 or 3 months! This would obviously entail new all-time highs on all indexes... I have posted repeatedly that I think this is the beginning of wave 533 up from 1982... If so, we should be extremely overbought by the next major Bradley turn date on July 13th... If that turns out to be an important top (as measured by High/Low indicator, sentiment, etc.) I would expect a decline, followed by a re-test of the highs near the end of August (another major Bradley turn date)... This second top should bring new highs to the oils, and other defensive stocks, but not be confirmed by the NDX... After that, I would not be surprised to see a crash in the price of everything (stocks, real estate, gold, art, antiques, etc)... Needless to say, such long-term forecasts require continuous re-evaluation as new events unfold... JMHO
http://www.amanita.at/e/faq/e-bradley.htm
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html
http://trending123.com/_nahl__.htm