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1800. I have the $compx breaking an up-trend line now.
Whether it's just a pierce, we'll have to wait and see how we close today.
Like I said before, I think we fill that gap @ 1836. It sure looks like it wants to fill.
But, where we go from there, I don't know. I would like to think "UP".
"PREVIEW: For those that follow Agere (which BTW is one of the few stocks that is up today :), they report earnings Tuesday the 28th before market open. Given its recent good performance, IMHO, they will have to beat estimates and guide higher for this run to continue. If the earnings are neutral, then we could retest the bottom of the channel around 2.8-3. If bullish, 4-4.2. I do not expect excessively bullish comments given still the uncertain economy."
So, you'll be selling?
" I am going to say amcc."
You like it better than NENG?
NOTE TO BEARS:
9ema is ready to cross up through 20ema on the monthly $compx.
Last time was early 91'.
The indicator is a little "late", but it's a powerful one.
https://www15.scottsave.com/GWwwroot/Research/workspace_frame.asp?WorkspaceLocation=Charts
I don't know if this link will work, but you can use your own program to see the 9 and 20 ema's on a $compx monthly chart.
Scott
I have the lower $comp bb at 1784.27 (via Stockcharts).
Are you saying this is the low we may not reach again for a few years?
Do you think we steadily sell off the next 10-12 trading days,
or a little up, a lot down, a little up...ect...
I didn't say that's why the markets tanked today, I'm saying people are posting it trying to fuel the fire.
And the day's young.
Who knows? Maybe we'll go green.
"that article is EVERYWHERE"
Of course it is. Shorts posting it, trying to make a quick buck.
O.K., my misunderstanding.
Thanks for the clairification.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?
message_id=1608210
O.K, next Friday (Oct.31,2003)for the record.
Because if it happens, it will be the "mother of all buying opportunities".
"Yup. The signals are all there. This is going to get real ugly real soon IMHO."
When was that "mother of all sell-offs" supposed to happen?
"Just picked up a few crumbs at 15.03. :) A 20 day chart shows this should not go much below 14.7"
I should have waited another 30 sec.
I could have had it in the 14's.
Oh well, I never get in at the bottom or out at the top.
Keep that in mind when reading my posts!
Hey, it was that monthly chart I was talking about!
The day's young.
Because of that post of yours!
Thanks for the nice entry, though.
Scott
GNSS - I'm in at 15.81, a small position. I liked the chart.
All right, who shook CIEN's cage?
I'm not in yet, you shouldn't have done that!
Oh well, knowing CIEN, I 'll have a GREAT buying opp in a day or so.
OT- From what I understand, that tiger was only "playing" and if it wanted to attack, there won't had been anything left.
I guess that tiger was acting as if it were playing with one of its cubs. Affection, you know.
Scott
Oh, you like that one?
I gotta' million of 'em!
"I don't mean to overwhelm with ideas, but gnss seems like something worth looking at too."
FWIW, GNSS crossed the 20ema(15.96) on the monthly today.
"Hey thanks, I am at the Mirage tonight, I understand there is an opening or two there"
Just don't bring any white tigers.
I could have gotten AVNX @ 5.45 today?
You take your eye off the market for one minute and....
Wow, looks like everyone wants a sell off.
That means we'll probably head up. Right?
"these are the kind of statements that tops are made of"
Really, I called a top? That was easy.
This week should be interesting, with more companies reporting earnings. I think the direction the markets take this week will determine the short term direction (2-4 weeks). And my GUT feeling is Down.
Thanks, Wahz. eom
"Then 04 could be a barn burner"
That's what I'm hoping for.
I think the way to screw the most amount of people, would be a slow bleed down to the 63ma, like you suggested. That would burn my a**, because I'm about 85% invested. I'd like to see some up this week, so I might raise more cash.
I'd like to buy NENG if it pulls back and I have cash.
Edit: Actually, I'll have more cash in a month or so, and I'll buy then. I'm starting to over analyize things and need to remember what Wahz says: "error on the side of bullishness".
"Did you figure out how to post charts yet?"
Ilooked at that page breifly, but haven't tried yet.
I'll check tonight.
"I will be watching the 63ema. Based on the timing of it, that could be pierced also... "
That would scare a lot of people, shake the weak hands.
Another good buying op.
So, is it safe to say you don't worry about a gap in the indexes or individual stocks (like the big one in AVXN back in May03)? Or, is this the case because we are in a Bull run, and it's meaningless.
I want to buy AVNX, but that gap bothersme.ALthough, as I type this, that gap is probably meaningless in a bull run. No?
Maybe that gap shouldn't be worried about until this bull run is over, then it's time to go short. That gap would make a good place to cover.
Scott
Edit: I just checked the $compx weekly, and there's no gap. So, maybe the daily is that important?
Does that gap at 1836 on the $compx bother anyone or is it just me?
I know we're going much higher, but it would be nice to load up again there, before the next leg up starts.
"d, that was only one of three ways Please check my recent posts for all three scenarios. For a month or so I expected a trading range between ~1700-1900. My 2nd most likely way was what you described(BUT that become the most likely around early last week) Least likely was a sylvestor like plunge. nevertheless the consistent part was a run to 2300-2400 next year at some point. The question is do we do it all now, into June after consolidation, or late in the year. It shouldn't matter much if I am right an we aren't going lower than 1700.
I think this is getting too confusing. It won't be a screw up if we go to 1700, as that is a very good possibility. I think we need to be ready to buy a significant drop and err on the side of being too bullish.
I don't usually have this many alernatives. Lets just wait to see what happens for a few days. I expect us so much higher in 18 months that I don't want to be micromanaging this too much"
Thanks, I understand. Nothing yet has changed your view.
I hoping for a grdual rise, as opposed to a quick run up and then consolidating for 6 months.
I guess we'll all have to wait and see how this plays out.
Thanks again,
Scott
On this bull run, if we break 2890 ($compx), then break through resistance at the 3500 level, we're going onto challange the double top at about 4200 level.
Of course, this is assuming economic conditions hold out.
And, I'm talking about several years out, like 2006.
We'll see, time will tell.
Scott
Thanks, Gottfried. I'll take a look.
At this point, are you still forecasting a big up movement into, or through, Jan.04 and then sideways movement for 6 months or so?
Scott
Thanks for opening up my mind.
Check out a 13ema and 41sma on a weekly. I ran this on the $comp , neng, afci, amcc. Looks good. When the 13 crosses the 41, it gives a good buy or sell signal.
https://www15.scottsave.com/GWwwroot/Research/workspace_frame.asp?WorkspaceLocation=Charts
Scott
"In a sense I think that is pretty close to the mark. Perhaps it would be best to consider that this is all a consolidation process that will go on in a wide range for 15-20 years."
Where do you see opportunities to make a buck in that itme period. Surely there has to be a way.
What about certain sectors like the Bios or healthcare?
Scott
Somebody, and I think it was on this thread, mentioned a 63ema.
Check that one out.
The person said they heard that the MMs use that one.
Also, I'm thinking of selling a stock if it shoots through the upper BB and re-buying it when it comes back inside the BB, preferably near the 9ema (on a daily chart), to maximize profits.
What do think of that idea? (NENG is a good recent example of what I'm talking about)
Scott
AWESOME!
I hope he says "YES!"
I use ScotTrade and it has a nice charting program. But, when I save my charts, they're gone if I log out and then log in again. It's a real pain.
Maybe I'm not using it right.
Anyone using ScotTrade care to comment?
Scott
Thanks, BULLarkey , you're the MAN!
Can you keep us updated from time to time or, better yet, post this somewhere, so we can tune in when we want to?
Thanks,
Scott
You're welcome Wahz. EOM.
Wahz:
https://www15.scottsave.com/GWwwroot/Research/workspace_frame.asp?WorkspaceLocation=Charts
I don't know if this will work or not.
Let's give it a try!
Scott
Edit: Damn, it didn't highlight like I thought it would.
I don't know how to post charts. Help, anyone?
Wahz,
A recent example is TMTA.
A month or so ago, COVD.
I'm watching TELM. It's 20ema monthly is 2.75
NENG crossed up through the 20ema monthly @ 2.75 and , well, we all know what that one's doing!
I try to keep things simple. I watch moving averages and trend lines. As well as a few other indicators for verification.
Scott