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On a closing basis on the $comp, if 1880 holds, I think we're o.k. If 1880 doesn't hold, there's good support around 1800.
Some good earnings reports this week could take-out the recent high (1960 or so).
And factor in "end of month" Friday, and who knows. A big day today, and I think 2100 will be seen before 1800.
It's getting real interesting.
De-flation is a bigger threat than inflation, now and in the foreseeable future.
But I don't think de-flation is anything to worry about. It just the bigger concern of the two. The fed is worried about de-flation.
"Yes! Absolutely! Going full bullish here!"
Oh, sh*T!
You're an indicator of mine.
Now I have to go 100% cash tomorrow.
"High inflation means high interest rates which is not good for stocks. Why invest in stocks if you can get 10+% a year of a 5-10 year CD."
Do we have high inflation? What do you consider high?
Inflation won't be "high" for MANY years.
"There is nothing positive about greed that ends in disaster. You think it won't. Will see..."
You're wrong, Syl.
I KNOW it will end badly.
Just not tomorrow or next week or next month, like I get the feeling you do. That's all.
"So the fed has been easy for a long time and is going to stay that way, fueling the economy to big gains...lets pretend that happens anyway...well so inflation kicks in a little and ol' ag being afraid to get agressive, he raises a 1/4 and another 1/4..and the old silly bastard chases inflation all the way up to 5% and gets rates to 7+ or higher. Banks will have a helluva time dealing with this..actually they won't deal with it, they'll collapse"
That's why rates will remain low for years to come.
Sure, the fed may raise rate 1 point over the course of a couple years or so, but not anything drastic.
AG was late cutting rates in 91'. He over tightened in the late 90's, to 2000.
He f**ks with the rates too much.
I hope he isn't stupid enough to raise the rates like he did in the late 90's (and I don't think he is. I like to think he learned a lesson).
"the market knows the moment you get pompous, and will come to your house and burn it down.."
That one actually made me laugh out loud.
You know what they say, for something to be funny, there has to be SOME truth to it!
You just can't stand anything positive, can you?
You're welcome. eom
Wahz: Thought you might like to know what the CEO of TI had to say last night on NBR. (Maybe you've already seen this?)
10/27/03: One On One With CEO Thomas Engibous of Texas Instruments
SUSIE GHARIB: Texas Instruments was here at the New York Stock Exchange this morning celebrating an important milestone. CEO Thomas Engibous rang the opening bell to mark the 50th anniversary of Texas Instrument's listing on the big board. The semiconductor maker has lots to celebrate. Its stock is up 86 percent since the beginning of the year and earnings more than doubled in the third quarter. When I talked with Engibous earlier today, I asked him about the outlook for the rest of the year.
THOMAS ENGIBOUS, CEO, TEXAS INSTRUMENTS: We guided that our semiconductor business would be up in revenue somewhere between three and 12 percent. So while that's a wide range at this point in time, it does signify that the strength of the market and the DSP particularly driving broadband, driving wireless and driving digital consumer continues to look good.
GHARIB: Mr. Engibous, we have seen strong earnings for pretty much the whole semiconductor industry for the third quarter. Is the chip downturn over?
ENGIBOUS: Yes, we are in a recovery mode. When you look at the growth in electronics, historically it has been driven more by new functionality, not by macroeconomics. And the amount of new functionality that is coming into the market for consumers is probably at the highest level we've seen since the advent of the PC. So I think it's not a quarterly prediction, but if you look out, in a number of years ahead, we should see some growth rates continue, perhaps above historical growth rates.
GHARIB: A big part of your business is providing semiconductors and chips for the cell phones. How much more growth is there, there?
ENGIBOUS: There's still a lot of the world that has not even had the opportunity to make a phone call. But just as importantly, the cell phones that exist today are becoming data terminals. And, you know, you're seeing some of the camera phones come on with GPS and Blue Tube. You're going to see music players, video players. The cell phone is going to be the platform for the mobile Internet. And that is going to really converge a bit with the digital consumer electronics of today. So we perhaps are in the very early stages of what "this portable terminal" will look like a number of years down the road.
GHARIB: We've seen the price of cell phones drop dramatically. How much pricing power do you have?
ENGIBOUS: Well, I don't know if you'd call it pricing power. I mean the fact is, is that the price per processing unit and so forth will continue to come down. But the content of semiconductors per terminal will go up. So our actual dollars per phone have been on a path of increasing. So, for instance, even in a year, last year, when subscriber growth, I believe, was only in the six percent -- or terminal growth was only in the six percent range, our wireless business was up over 40 percent. It's because the content of silicon in a phone is going up quite dramatically.
GHARIB: Give us your thoughts about the outlook for the PC business.
ENGIBOUS: I think the fact is, is that the PC is going to continue to be a very important part of the electronics world. But it is going to grow at a slower rate than it did over the last decade and a half. And we have to recognize that. And the fact that it's so big, it does have a dampening effect on the overall growth rate of the electronics market.
GHARIB: So what products are you excited about for 2004?
ENGIBOUS: I'm excited about the digital consumer electronic devices, the ability to carry your music library in your hand and access a million songs remotely, the ability to play games remotely and watch movies and so forth in the palm of your hand. And I'm excited about what's happening in terms of broadband coming in to people's homes and then being wirelessly distributed around the home. Wi-fi hot spots, those are all areas that I think we're going to see the most growth opportunity in the near term.
GHARIB: We've seen that Texas Instruments' stock has had a very nice move up recently. How much more upside do you think there is?
ENGIBOUS: Our goal is to make sure we deliver the right products to the right customers in the right spaces. And I believe the spaces that we're in right now are the healthy growth areas. So we would expect to continue to grow, just as we have over the last two years, continue to grow at a faster rate than the market overall.
GHARIB: Mr. Engibous, thank you very much.
ENGIBOUS: Thank you, Susie.
I know that.
Why, did I offend you?
That's o.k., it was for OpKid
"Come on now, We all know most libs are commies and would not be interested in reading a message board devoted to the purpose of making money :P"
So, most people on these boards aren't here to make money?
I guess that would explain all the negative articles post when there's positive news out these, too.
You know what they say: No news is good news
So, I guess: good news is no new. At least to liberals.
Hey, bad news sells, right? Who wants to hear something positive?
You just had to use the "L" word, didn't you.
Now you just pissed off most of the people reading your post.
" For aesthetic satisfaction..."
I'll give you that.
A lot of guys like him have big egos.
Fortunatly, Wahz isn't like that.
And about Gateway, someone mentioned it a few weeks ago and I thought it MAY have been you. As far as Mac goes, why would anyone want a Mac, unless you're a graphic artist or a musician?
C eom.
"Especially with all the scandals that are coming out showing that wall street is corrupt and rigged to the bone."
Hell, Syl, everyone knows that, or at least should.
It's o.k. if you know that going in. It's all part of the "game".
"So how good has this SI guy been over the past couple of years?"
Pretty good I guess. He's a stock picker. Plays crappers.
He goes by DougR.
Gottcha.
I don't follow the NDX and I watch the QQQ a little because I don't trade them. I mainly watch the $compx. I glance at the DOW from time to time.
I notice a lot of people follow the NDX. Is that because it tracks only the top 100 stocks of the comp and is a better reflaction of the market?
"You have done very well Linda. I've noticed your trading calls and they were very well timed. Congrats."
Unless she's the one who liked Gateway.
They are in real trouble. Shouldn't have opened the "brick and morter" stores, in my opinion.
Dell's crushing them.
mjk,
A guy I follow on SI said we should (and I said SHOULD not WOULD)
hit 10,240 on the DOW this coming week if one of his indicators was correct.
I think he's lost his f###ing mind. I'm optimistic about the markets, but that's not very likly in my opinion.
Of course if Sadammy or Osama get captured, who the hell knows!
"This is all academic as the NDX and QQQ gaps still remain open."
Are you talking about the gaps above where we closed Friday?
Rocky,
I was sitting here listening to music, thinking about my last post and it occured to me: Since we were going by highs and lowa (and not opening and closing price)I need to check the low and Friday. Sure enough, we did close that gap like you and BacchusII stated.
I was being conservative and going by opening and closing prices in my original post when I said the gap at 1836.
After re-examining the chart, if you look at 1 month prior (09-02-03) we had the same gap as 10-02-03: you can draw a line straight across. I guess that gap was more important than I originally thought. Now I'm more confident we go higher Mon., as Wahz said his indicator was way oversold.
I don't know how important gaps are, but all week, it just seemed to me that the $compx wanted to fill that gap.
Scott
Rocky,
Check your data for these figures if you can:
10-02-03: High= 1842.55
10-03-03: Low= 1864.54
Now, never mind the opening and closing prices on these two days, these was no overlapping or continuation of price from 10-02 to 10-03. This is a gap, no?
Is it an important gap? I don't know. But to me, it sure seems to want to fill. And I think it will by Wed.
I think Monday will be an up day, just on a "gut" feeling.
I'd like to see a little run up here so Icould lighten up a little to buy a again a lower price.
Scott
"edit: wahz, if you read this, do you know something about osama that the rest of us should know <g>. And I'm not overly bearish, just think the 1700's will be hit, then we're fine to head to the comp 200sma weekly near 2300."
mjk,
I'm curious, what's your time frame for this scenerio to work out?
Thanks,
Scott
Bacchus,
I don't think so.
That's the gap I've been watching and it at about 1836.
I bet we fill it by Wed., though.
Scott
Thanks, Wahz, for the replies. EOM
On a weekly chart, I see we hit the 100 ma like you stated.
Did you mean the WEEKLY comp chart?
"I see now that I have done more calculations that my indicator, since 1998, was only more oversold than 12pm pst, in the last two days of the week after 9/11,"
Does this mean you expect us to shoot up next week?
Also, on that 100ma:
Maybe I ahve faulty data, but we hit that 100 ma on the daily quite often on the $compx.
My data shows the 100ma at about 1756. Does that sound about right?
"OT - MB makes some of the best (if not THE best) diesel engines in the world, that's for sure. And for the latest versions during the past 10 years or so, you would hardly know it's a diesel."
I totally agree.
Mercedes and VW have the best diesels to offer in the U.S.
I can't speak for Europe (all the compaies make them), but I can't see how they would be better.
No, I had a Turbodiesel Mercedes. The engine outlasted the body. Ran great when they towed from my driveway.
Now I have a Jetta TDI. Drove it to Niagra Falls last weekend and got 48.67 mpg, driving 75-80 mph. Now THAT"S value!
I like turbo diesel engines.
Unless they're in a Porsche. Then I want twin-turbos. And gasoline!
"Whether it's just a pierce, we'll have to wait and see how we close today."
Just a pierce, up-trend still intact.
Nice article.
J6P will be back. And that's what will really power the markets higher.
They will come back late in the cycle when the markets keep going higher and they think "I can't afford to stay in cash any longer" and they get back in. (Was that a run-on sentance?)
In the 90's, I remember how euphoric J6P, watching his 401k go up 80% in one year. He was clueless. Thought it would last forever. A new technology revolution, you know.
It will happen again. Give it 2 or so years.
Thanks for your fair reply.
After sending it, I was afraid you might take it in the wrong way.
What you say about valuations, I think about from time to time.
If someone was to base price on valuation, why would someone want to invest in ANY stock?
If a stock is worth $1, why would anyone want to pay even $1.01 for it? It's only worth a dollar, right?
I guess that's why I buy charts and not stocks.
Hell, anybody that thinks this run will never end, is crazy.
But I believe we have 2-3 years left. Before the bubble broke in 2000, I thought we could have that bull run til 2008 or 2009. Now, I think 2006. Of course, that view can (and probably will) change before then.
Thanks again,
Scott
That's the media reporting.
I'm more interested in what someone like the CEO of Wells Fargo has to say than some talking head.
Remember, most of those reporter are good looking people who know how to read a tele-promter (well, some can't do that to well, either.)
Syl,
You're always posting negative articles and running around trying to save the rest of us from the abyss.
If the "house of card is coming down" as you say, where is this going to end? Please tell us what you mean.
Is the NDX going to zero? Then what.
Wahz has stated many times that his "bull plan" is 2-3 years out. Of course we're going to have down days weeks, or maybe even a month here or there.
Are you calling for the markets to dump and then sideways movement for the next 20 years or what?
I'd like your opinion .
Thanks,
Scott
"IMHO market looks forward. Like at least 6 months forward."
I agree.
But who the hell ever thought 3Q would come in around 7%?
I think most were expecting more like 4%.
3Q Growth Rate near 7%?
Wow, maybe we will hit 2100 before 1800.
"I have both my trading ST pile and my LT core."
I'm assuming you'll be selling your ST portion?
I looked at AGR/a (and b) a few months ago when it was around 2.00. Nver bought, though. But it's on my watch list.