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Hi Dan! Rumor “du jour” has arrived: China and India love Apple! But it dissipated: not good enough! We need a better one…
Dan: while waiting for some real action, I look at Apple and the Qs in parallel. Maybe the “apple turnover” is the move that can take us up. It’s time for some juicy rumor.
Gleno: as I wrote to Dan, August futures of rotten tomatoes on the Denver open market are going through the roof. Want to go long?
Be: my prediction was 42.07. So, I am long too. But the bouncing is not convincing. It has to go through 42.34 and enter the next zone of congestion. If it will not accelerate on the way up, I’ll be out.
Gleno: 42.08 close enough to 42.07? If yes….then… YES, we could see bottoming here. All we need now is a good rumor. The talking heads will do their job.
Be: you are right: they buy only as much as necessary. THEY don’t overspend. On the other hand, right now, unlike yesterday, there is little demand for April and May puts. I think that this is because the wise guys think that they can get them much cheaper later. Also notice how strong is support 42.24. Numerology in action…It might not hold.
Gleno: Nice chart! Sold the QLDs yesterday on close, which was fortunate. Now I am trying to accumulate more May 45 puts but they won’t give me a good price. If I understand correctly, Dan and Foot expect an up move sometime today. Maybe then I’ll get them. Here is why I called 42.07 a temporary resistance point. I won’t get long unless it bounces there.
Foot: I thought yesterday that 1326.25 would hold. It did not and I got stopped. Now it looks like the down trend is dominant. Next possible stop =1308.2 (?!). This would be not only the slow fractal resistance but also a level at which both the FRAMA and the 50MA changed concavity in Sep/Oct [ F(x)’’ = valid inflection point].
Erratum: “bite“, not “bight" …read too many of those posts…
Dan: sorry if you miss her, but I have good trading news: the dems are killing each other. They have no bullets, but can bight. Thus, the August rotten tomatoes futures on the Denver open market are going up, out of sight!
Gleno: you are wise. Now that I am in, I’ll keep in mind your targets. Thanks.
Gleno: yes, got some QLD and keeping them ... My main position is a put calendar spread.
Gleno, great call. My next stop: 42.06.
Gleno, Yes. The foxhunt is on. But this fox tries to get the Master of the Hounds whose horse will stumble at 42.42.
Foot: SPX resistance v strong around here. Trip UP possible. Chart later.
Glen, I promise to be serious and professional, and to restrict my comments to TA. Thus, I will first recall with Kondratieff, paraphrased by Elliott, that the comparative analysis of the past and present events, if correct, should have a predictive value for the future. “Yes” said J. M. Hurst “but to do so, you must define VALID TERMS OF COMPARISON“. And fox modestly asks: “what do we really compare?”. Which brings us to a “Fractal Example” of this problem, as illustrated in the following anecdote…..
…A party in the Rockies. Sunk in an armchair , I sip my malt. Nearby, a good friend - an authentic Vietnam War hero pilot and a race car owner- entertains a lady. She is a collagen + botox engineered beauty, sporting a colorful ski outfit with the a promising logo: HEAD. I don’t know her… probably a tourist. Here, only tourists wear ski outfits after 5pm. She says: “ …yes, I had to divorce him. Imagine…the bastard loved his car more than he loved ME! “. My friend scrutinizes her for three long seconds. Then asks: “What kind of a car was it?”
Gleno, you are modest. Often you say that you don’t know or understand this or that pattern. But if a discussion starts on that subject, it is amazing how knowledgeable and how good you are. Just keep on sharing your views. In this way we are all stimulated to post our best stuff.
Gleno: Yes, you did. We all admire you clairvoyance and modesty. I am posting the follow-up of the Q-bonacci chart. 13FRAMA said goodbye to the 233EMA attractant in a big way. Attractions don’t last for ever and Miss Frama abandoned her lover after a Cialis-long encounter. She will not go back for a long time, unless forcefully pushed in his arms by the two matchmakers of Wall Street: B & P.
Foot, great chart. For a change, look at this:
“We’re proud to announce to our fans that Peter Forsberg (R) has decided to come back and play with our franchise where he’s enjoyed so much success early in his career,” said Avalanche Executive Vice President and General Manager Francois Giguere. “His addition should complement our roster and will bring our team to an even higher competitive level.”
“Over the last several months, I have worked extremely hard in order for this to be possible. I am looking forward to putting this jersey on again,” said Forsberg. “I have so many great memories of my playing days in Denver. I’m excited about helping my new teammates and former teammates in the coming weeks, and hopefully I am able to do that in the very near future.”
Forsberg, 34, was selected sixth overall in the 1991 Entry Draft by the Philadelphia Flyers before being dealt to the Quebec Nordiques on June 30, 1992. He made his NHL debut with the Nordiques during the 1994-95 season, where he tallied 50 points (15g/35a) in 47 games during the shortened season, earning him the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie. During his next nine seasons in Colorado, he would go on to win two Stanley Cups (1996, 2001); capture the Hart Trophy as NHL MVP (2003); and appear in seven All-Star games. During his MVP season, he led the NHL in scoring with 106 points (29g/77a) in 75 games. He was named a First-Team NHL All-Star three times (1998, 1999, 2003) while with Colorado.
…….But he will not play tonight in a crucial game against the LA Kings. Why? Because he has some immigration problems. In its immense wisdom, the INS, that we all admire, has declared Peter the Great an immigrant “sin papeles”. I do not know the details. He was born in Sweden and is apparently waiting somewhere in Canada for a visa to show up while bureaucracy sleeps and the Lowlands of Colorado stay infested with OMEGAS sin papeles, who don’t need visas.
Gleno: yes he is cute and used to date a remarkable Wall Street beauty:
Goldie Lox ( …no bagels, please)
In Golden Slacks ( the endearing nickname of Goldman Sachs)
Gleno: I checked in some books those 3 Doji candles. As far as I understand, they might be considered as a Three Doji Stars in the South pattern. This is bullish, in particular because the low of the Doji-s is progressively getting slightly higher. I don’t take it seriously. fox
Dan: Sioux are…the dominant Hokan-Siouan linguistic Amerindian group, as you probably know. Since Sitting Bull was one of them, and in this market, I feel like a cautious bull, I invoked their wisdom. The lingo was a joke, meant to bring a smile in this neurotic trading atmosphere. As a fact, I know some of their descendents and am quite impressed with their patience and dignity. Hope I did not offend anyone.
Gleno & Foot: My Sioux friends would say: “Guru big karma but Shaman sees good straight line in sand and volume lousy. Straight line strong medicine. Strong medicine verks. Sitting Bull and Sleepy Bear wait and smoke good Davidoff tobacco in large Stanwell pipe. Patience.”
Hi FOOT. Thanks for the SPX levels. A +TOM might get extended by the possible arrival of some dumb money, but this usually only leads to more intraday confusion. It could take us to the Bradley date, as you say. Around that point, a change of the down slope should be signaled on my chart by the fractal13 crossing und the trg55 MA. I am selling opportunistically longs and keeping shorts. Will get more, whenever cheap. I plan to finish construction of put calendar spreads May/March by March 7, 15 days before op exp. Therefore, watching closely the VIX.
Next World Cup in South Africa, 2010. Scotland and Netherlands in group 9; matches did not start yet.
Foot & Gleno: Here is a Q-bonacci 30 min chart. MA-s have lengths spaced by 2 members of the Fib progression:
- green: 233 exp. MA (da magnet, stolen from the 5 min charts of Scamman)
- purple: 55 triangular MA
- white: 13 fractal MA
Soon after the high of the Boxing Day, the averages initiated (on 12 /31/07) individual divergent trajectories, going down . The 233MA acted as an attractant for the price on 5 occasions. Among them, 3 were serious flirting: Jan/Feb TOM, Feb OpExp and the Feb/Mar TOM, which is NOW. Since 12/31/07, the fractal NEVER crossed the attractant. However, now they are overlapping for the latest “16 candles”: vat a strong magnet! I expect a violent move soon. For both chart esthetics and bernankian reasons, I would suggest DOWN . Leonardo da Pisa would probably smile: “Si non e vero, e ben trovato” with other words, even if it‘s not true, it’s well invented.
Foot, you are right. Love pretty girls but let’s look at some football (as you correctly named it): here is Glasgow Rangers’ Chris Burke (R) in action, during the UEFA Cup f., won by the Rangers.
Foot : initiating and staying with your SPX long position was the only right thing to do. I suspect that today’s vigorous engineering was driven by the “resolve” of the master players to end February in a positive territory and to attract retailers in long term investments. This is no secret and was indirectly confirmed by the ritual dance of the talking heads on TV. Does that mean that the trend will go on for the rest of the week? It should!
Foot, well said. For the populace, tempted by equality, I would only add a quotation from an Old World conservative: “Between equality and dictatorship there are secret bonds”.
Foot, erratum: I meant 1378. But now it’s over 1380. Same question. fox
Foot, thanks. SPX is right there, slightly >178. Holding long?
Hi Gleno. THEY claim it’s about IBM: great guidance, buyback of stocks and the new server: fast, runs cool, low energy consumption and 2.3x capacity. IBM says that everybody will have to buy it. Historically, IBM took the market up unexpectedly on several occasions. So, what not now? The trick is that these IBM news are either old or predictable. They were served to the market at the right time. fox
Foot: thank you again for the SPX info. Nope, but close: Scotland. Talking about officials and local costumes, now I understand why Miz Clinton did not campaign in Hawaii. Just imagine if… Set a chart according to your advise, fox
Foot: thank you for the SPX info. Looked at your numbers on a daily chart. I will keep in mind the consolidation area 1318-1378. My “filters” came up with a funny result: based on a long cycle of 285 d (taken as a basic unit) the Fib time extensions narrowly predicted 3 successive lows which also coincided with volume highs. The next one should be on April 21. The 2 broad triangles cannot be taken seriously since their directional outcome seems divergent. The head and shoulder …has a right shoulder which reminds me of my own shoulder after a rugby match against the Highland Devils. One has to hope that we will be on the right side of this trade. Regards, fox
Gleno & Foot: I am out! Bought and sold puts twice….for a dismal profit! Did completion of the “e” wave happen today? Maybe, but confirmation might come only tomorrow in two ways: 1). “suckers’ gap up” + violent drop or 2). opening flat + slow methodical long drop. If neither happens I will stay out. After all everybody and his guru is counting waves. So do THEY… Regards, fox
Blasher, Gleno and NM: this is where Qs should go...because, according to Prechter and Elliott, once the e wave is completed in a continuation triangle, the price should follow its initial direction for a distance equal to the base of the triangle. In time, the target should be reached roughly at the apex of the triangle. BIG QUESTION: WHEN WILL THE “e” WAVE BE COMPLED? Or was it this morning? If you make strict measurements: NOT YET. Regards, fox
Revision: the next resistance is actually a congested space between 44,28 and 44.40. Hope it doesn't get there.
GLENO, my first rez was 43.85. same as yours. Sec. level = 44.28. Bought a few shorts for now.
Gleno and Foot: thanks and yes, it looks like it’s a mess. But our financial wizards know what they are doing: to celebrate their stellar performance, the apparatchiks of Country Wide are coming to Aspen to work 3-4 hours a day and come up a with a new generation of “products“. The prices CW pays for rooms drove all the sled huskies mad. They seem to say: “we work so hard and have to sleep in the snow while those dogs get luxury suits!?”. And it’s not all: B. of Am. “retreats” to Avon for a rest… It’s not so classy but rooms are a real bargain: slightly less than $1K/day . Who’s next? The rumor at the bar of Jerome is that Northern Rock, with the help of the British Gov., will buy Vail Resorts and move their brilliant executives to the Rockies, for good. After all, the US$ is cheap… Regards, fox
Hey Foot. Thank you. I had to act so fast when I saw da boyz selling puts that I ignored understanding what was happening. THEY obviously understood but I still don't: if you ensure me, I declare a loss and you have to give me money....then... I give you money so that you can pay me what you already owe to me... Why would I do that? fox
Foot & Gleno: What I understand is that a "serious rumor" was delivered on CNBC by Gasparino. Some banks are giving money to MBIA (a bailout?) , who in turn will promise transparency. WSJ and Barron’s have nothing on line. I might have gotten it wrong…but that’s all I could find out. You guys have probably better sources and understanding.