Fully invested in secondary oils (100% long)
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aire - todays' jump in bonds, and accompanying dip in stocks, is normal "short-term" (intraday) behavior IMHO...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
aire - Granville's "bull market order of strength rotation" starts with "bonds and preferreds" followed by "utilities and financials"... that is why bond prices lead stock prices on a long-term basis... (short-term, it is often the opposite, as money shifts from one market to the other)... therefore, this foretells new highs in stock prices for at least a month (bonds bottomed at least a month before stocks bottomed)...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
hey denmo - check out this trading system...
http://www.safehaven.com/article-3107.htm
like a "denmo4" (I like ROC)...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
GOOG "funny-mentals"...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?tool=1&guid={4DB87592-A760-43ED-8FE3-9D0CCDD219AD}&...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
peg - I meant to say beginning 3/3 up today (which isn't all that different)... yesterdays' dip was wave 3/2... (yes, in the unlikely event that this were an ABC, it would be over)... as you can see, there were 5 waves up followed by 5 waves down... now we are beginning another 5 waves up...
http://trending123.com/_sml.htm
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Investors' Intelligence: Market Sentiment...
http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment.htm
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
high/low indicator chart... (uptrend intact)...
http://trending123.com/_nahl__.htm
'looks like 40-wk low is in...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
peg - bullish case: beginning wave 3 up from April low...
looks textbook to me, too...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
AMRE Chart...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=AMRE,uu[h,a]daclynay[da][pc10!d20,2.0!f][iut!La12,26,9!L...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
peg - where is the bearish divergence here?...
http://trending123.com/_sml.htm
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
TICK and TRIN are MEGA-BULLISH...
http://www.marketswing.com/realtime.htm
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
GOOG Chart...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=GOOG,uu[w,a]dacayyay[db][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iLp14,3,3!L...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
stocks and dollar rallying since April... IMHO they will both continue to rally for many weeks!...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
SPX - Bullish Percent Index...
http://trending123.com/index/_bpspx.htm
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Apple - considering using Intel chips on Macs: WSJ
Monday May 23, 5:30 am ET
By Steve Goldstein
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Apple Computer Inc. is considering using chips made by Intel Corp. in its Macintosh computer line, The Wall Street Journal said Monday, citing industry sources. Two industry executives with knowledge of recent discussions between the companies said Apple will agree to use Intel chips, the report said. Neither company would confirm any change in their relationship. It's unclear what the impact would be on International Business Machines Corp. , its longtime supplier, the report added.
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
DJIA Chart...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=DJIA,uu[w,a]dacayyay[db][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iLp14,3,3!L....
higher highs, and higher lows... Dow Theory "bull market" confirmation...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
DJTA Chart...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=DJTA,uu[w,a]dacayyay[db][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iLp14,3,3!L...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
I'm a "contrarian/technician/funny-mentalist" who has always known that cycles are extremely important... I called the '87 crash using e-wave, and made some easy money fast with OEX puts... when I heard on CNBC on Friday that the "cycle low" was on Monday, I made the mistake of taking my profits before the close... if I had held one more day, I would have made MILLIONS!!!... That taught me not to fade cycle analysts unless they are in disagreement with another cycle analyst... however, I have never done my own cycle analysis, as I did just now with the XOI... (another "arrow in my quiver")...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
aire - I just did the XOI oils, and it was a lot easier than the Value Line... It shows the 40-week low came in on the 16th of May... right?
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Thanks Buckster - Boa Noite!
aire - I think it's amazing!... I feel like a kid with a new toy!... I also think you are right about 4/29 being the 40-week low, of course!...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
aire - yes, on 4/29 INTC got ignited... prior to that the advance was less impressive.
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Buckster - what if 1st 80-week is 09/02?
Buckster - mid-July... notice the sharp drop into mid July, and the strong bounce immediately afterward followed by a gentle drift down to the final price low.
Buckster - INTC 40-week low was April 15th!... the power of this rally is proof positive that 4/15 was a MAJOR low!... Expect an acceleration of the advance next week (it is already up another nickel after hours)... also, if you take another look at the charts, you will see that there is ZERO bearish divergence!...
the p/e ratio is about as low as it ever gets!...
the daily chart shows SIXTEEN CONSECUTIVE BULLISH CANDLES...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
INTC Chart (weekly)...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=INTC,uu[w,a]wacayyay[dd][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iLp14,3,3!L...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
INTC Chart...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=INTC,uu[w,a]dacayyay[db][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iLp14,3,3!L...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
High Oil Prices Required, OPEC Chief Says
Saturday May 21, 1:17 pm ET
By Jim Krane, Associated Press Writer
High Oil Prices Are Required to Fund Future Increases in Production, OPEC's President Says
SOUTHERN SHUNEH, Jordan (AP) -- High oil prices are needed to help fund higher oil production and exploration by producer countries, OPEC's president said Saturday.
Global demand for oil will rise to 85.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year and OPEC is making investments to bring production in line with that demand, said Sheik Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed Al Sabah, Kuwait's oil minister and current president of the Vienna-based cartel
"OPEC is investing to increase production and flow to markets" and ensure stable prices, Al Sabah said in a speech before the World Economic Forum.
The added production is needed to boost global economic growth but "acceptable fair prices" for oil are required to repay investments made by producing countries, Al Sabah said.
The minister said oil-producing countries in the Gulf must also invest in oil- and gas-related industries that diversify economies, even within the energy sector. He listed petrochemical production as a top priority.
Al Sabah said the international community can help ease high prices by providing technology and expertise needed to build these new industries, as well as using diplomacy to bring stability to the region.
IMHO crude oil has bottomed, and the oil-stock correction is over... oil stocks should lead this new bull run to all-time highs until mid July...
MELT-UP TIME!!!
this "bear" admits rising dollar is bullish for stocks... he is saying that there is one more final blow-off rally, when in fact, "wave 3 up" is just beginning!... (another e-waver that can't count)
MELT-UP TIME!!!
Joe Six-Pack's selling short - "Specialists" are not!...
http://www.investmenttools.com/thefed/specialist_short_sales.htm
MELT-UP TIME!!!
rising dollar is bullish for stocks!...
info@mrminv.com
MARKET UPDATE
For Investors Seeking Returns at Lower Risk April 1, 2005
Stocks Are Bullish
While the market trend may appear to be aimless, it
is in fact building a base for a resumption of the
uptrend. As we mentioned in previous newsletters,
the market evidence has indicated that there will
indeed be a final blow-off rally to this major rising
phase that began in October of 2002.
Based on the typical average dimensions for similar
past trends, this advancing leg could have a peak in
the vicinity of 11,500 on the Dow Jones Industrial
Average and 1350 on the S&P 500 Index.
Naturally, the actual peak could be higher or lower
than these levels but these are a reasonable estimate
of a normal expectation.
The Dollar Trend Reverses
The most significant event of the last several weeks is
the change in the price trend of the U.S. dollar from
weakness to strength. As you can see in the chart
below, the last three years has been a virtually
unbroken succession of lower highs and lower lows
in the dollar index. Now that has changed and the
very strong implication is that a major reversal has
occurred that should lead to a period of relative price
strength lasting for several years. For the immediate
future, this initial strength in the dollar is an
additional bullish factor for U.S. stocks.
That is the good news. This change has, in turn,
several further implications that are not so positive.
For example, a strong dollar will increase the price of
everything we export and will aggravate our already
record-setting trade deficit. It is also almost a given
that this strength in the dollar will be accompanied by
rising interest rates.
The Impact Of Rising Rates
The market has had mixed emotions over the Fed
decision to raise the fed funds rate another quarter
point to 2.75%. The uncertainty was not really due to
the expected rate hike but over the Fed keeping the
“measured pace” language in its reference to future
rate decisions.
Some expect the fed funds rate to be around 4% by
year-end. Even after seven interest rate increases by
the Federal Reserve, the financial markets have still
not accepted the fact that there is now an environment
of monetary tightening. Even though the U.S. bank
prime lending rate, a mostly short-term gauge, has
risen to 5 ¾% the much longer term 10 year Treasury
is still yielding only about 4.5%.
Moreover, bond yields may rise to a level more
attractive to foreign investors. This will in turn drive
dollar buying. And the expectation of this will drive
immediate speculation on the dollar.
The combination of potentially higher returns on U.S.
equities and a rising dollar is apt to scare a lot of
money out of foreign investments back into the U.S.
Investors speculating on foreign companies might be
surprised to see their returns reduced significantly by
the unfavorable change in exchange rates.
At some point, the markets will have to accept the
reality of this tightening but for now this is probably
helping to prolong the positive trend for stocks.
Large Cap Stocks Should Lead
Over the past 40 years, we have seen that large cap
stocks tend to be the best relative performers during
the final phases of major bull markets. This seems to
be a function of tardy investors, including the big
institutions, who are in a rush to deploy the ir capital
into the market and simply find the superior liquidity
of the larger stocks most attractive. Since the market
is now in a very mature phase, we are currently
putting the heaviest portfolio emphasis on the large
cap segment.
A Serious Peak Is Still Ahead Though
While a rally in the dollar is bullish over the short term
and should help provoke several months, or
more, of further market strength, the ultimate impact
will be negative. In fact, a spiral of the rising dollar
and rising rates could easily get completely out of
hand and create the most drastic type of economic
trouble.
It is still to be expected that there will be a major
stock market peak at the conclusion of this next rally
phase. For the reasons that we have outlined before,
investors must be prepared to deal with a serious
plunge following that peak.
MELT-UP TIME!!!
aire - isn't it also true that on the previous 4 1/2 year cycle low, NONE of the averages made lower lows?
aire - so far, it's behaving extremely well!... if the momentum of this advance accelerates next week, it will be "ideal behavior" to substantiate that possibility... right?
also, since the 3 03 low was lower than the previous 4 1/2 yr low, it stands to reason that it was also the low for the next higher cycle... right?
lots of "green" after hours...
http://www.afterhourtrades.com/realtime.htm
MELT-UP TIME!!!
aire - to be "strong-up" it would have to have bottomed at the most recent 4 1/2 yr low... right?... so when was that?
air - then next year should be MEGA-BULLISH!!!
aire - now that makes more sense!... it means the top could be mid July, and a "bounce low" (rather than a re-test) end of Aug to early Sept... it also means the decline to follow will last until year-end... (instead of just the end of October)
Thanks for clearing that up!
chris - according to denmo83 they're all bullish indicators since the 18th...
You said you would remain bullish on GE as long as it held above 36.80...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6412849
What happened to change your mind?
aire - so this rally is just beginning!... I agree, and it confirms my e-wave count... (beginning wave 3 up)... and the next MAJOR Bradley turn date is July 13th and August 30th (for a re-test?). Then I guess we could have a sharp decline through the end of October... Right?