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Wow, Apria/Lincare competition is IN the house! LOL.
A largely debt-free Rotech got ya a little worried, there, Bunkie? Think they might be a little better prepared to DEAL with reduced CMS reimbursement pressures than you after their debt gets largely discharged?
Then there's that big new contract, dude. Remember that?
CMS pressure on cost containment is GOOD because it smokes out inefficiency and companies built on debt and foolish acquisitions solely contrived to net huge topline growth bonuses and option awards to greedy management. And Rotech shedding its legacy costs spent on freeing it from the chains of acquisition slavery they never sought or wanted is also a good thing. I personally think they went about it in a Kabuki Theatre spectacle of unsavory gyrations, but give the devil his do. These guys are likely to kick your sorry butt in the next 5 years of CMS "be lean or begone" reimbursement pressure. Face facts, dude, ROHI will likely crush your nuts.
I just want to make some money on the Spectacle at the Colisseum.
Cheers.
Maybe so, J.T., but if your followers keep buying more ROHIQ shares because you misread the arbitrage activity as market maker gamesmanship, their portfolio value is going to look a whole lot more like what comes out of the lion's back end after chowing down on a few greasy gazelles, the day prior.
You are in the arbitrage zone, not the momo zone, IMHO.
That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.
I didn't say never to trade momentum. Often it is a good play. I said in this case it is potentially a defective strategy because it could encourage you, and apparently has caused people to buy more shares based on a trading aberration and not based on legitimate trading action. When this happens, the hysteria simply feeds on itself.
I watched arbitrageurs have a field day with GM stock prior to its delisting and all the retail braggarts on the message board were cheering and obnoxiously gloating until the reality set in that a $.61 share price just got zeroed out.
An arbitrage play is more, not less likely with a thinly traded stock like Rotech with a modest float. Be careful. That's all I'm saying.
Hope your health is improving. We missed your input here.
Yank
Guys, I read for months how little I know about pinkies and Q's, but I have a typically valueless opinion regarding today's 3 million shares in action through 3PM. Maybe this is NOT MM's playing games. Maybe it is a few arbitrageurs buying and selling the same big blocks, over and over, to manipulate the S/P.
I have watched these vultures for years prey on BK hospice cases in their final hours. They LOVE message boards, by the way, and love to fan hysteria to drive big swings that they play for all they are worth. A tenth of a penny on a million shares when you trade it 3 or 4 times a day nets a nice payday, as long as you bail before the lights get switched out on the debt for equity swap in its final hour.
Don't be misled. Play the trade. DO NOT TRADE THE MOMENTUM. You have to trust me on this. For me, I'm not selling but I am not buying more, either.
GLTA,
Yank
Seeking Alpha is rubbish. Their bloggers routinely put out recommendations on the same issue on the same day and one is a buy and one is a sell. It's blogging at its worst levels of incompetence. I was a major player in mReits for years and actually quit reading SA because of their obvious errors and investment stupidity.
Red Chips stuff was legit. I am sorry to lose their insight.
I hear you. One of the reasons I mentioned Goldman-Sachs sarcastically, numerous time during my posting here, was the sense that big money was playing a strategic role in Rotech's maneuverings (Reimers is a G-S alumni) and everyone they picked for almost any function was big money... auditors, bankers, legal representation, Sitrick for PR. Big money has no use for the little guy, the retail investor and far too often exhibits extreme disdain for rules that do not benefit them.
Remember Leona Helmslet saying taxes were for the "little people"? Did you listen to any of the Donald's sound bites promoting Trump University? The 1% controls the campaign donation gravytrain and thus controls a lot of legislative impetus. Sheldon Adelson (LasVegasSands CEO) almost single-handedly funded Newt Gingrich's last campaign. The 1% is isolating wealth from the majority and that is a GLOBAL scenario, hence the rioting in Brazil during the World Cup. I actually share much of your manifesto, though I do hope you were coached by the Unabomber.
Rotech remains an interesting company to watch. Opportunities are still possible. So are paybacks.
I feel bad for anyone that lost money here. That includes me, but only to a small extent.
Seems totally appropriate after yesterday's court rulings. Shareholders are dead meat and a-holes. That's pretty straightforward! That includes me so I'm just sayin...
LOL. The sun is still shining today.
1.5 million shares dumped, and counting. Hey, where's some pundit saying we are just down with the market? LOL, again.
On your first question, YES I blame them and I think there was an ulterior motive for their actions. As for the rest, I think Longwei has virtually just given up and withdrawn from all the negativism, barriers put in their forward path and garbage not part of everyday business life in China.
Looks like GEO and the Seeking Alpha blogosphere succeeded in putting this down for the count for whatever purpose they achieved. There is now so little volume interest that Longwei hardly matters, anymore.
Kinda stinks, but it is what it is.
Anyone that lost money as a lender, creditor or investor knows who to go after and it isn't the corporate shell, IMO.
Are you absolutely sure that outfit wasn't 100% pure anus?
This stock is going down like a fracking hole, if you catch my drift!
Hey, if it gets down to $.0001 you could buy the whole shindig for $26K, own it for the next 2 days, and then tell everyone you are a big shot "whale" investor. LOL! Anybody's ego feeling bruised and needing a big boost? This could be your best chance at investor stardom... you could be just like Miley Cyrus and maybe even be on TV, although it would likely be on CNBC and not MTV dressed like a cheap hooker.
LOLOLOL!
It's down to $.006 and sinking into oblivion. It's now an arbitrageur's play until the 29th. Pointless to sell, now, you might even get a dead cat bounce by the end of the day or tomorrow and get a penny or two out of it before they embalm the corpse.
If Cabrera is at the plate everybody better hope he took a huge injection of PEDs and testosterone, last night.
Hey, somebody BOUGHT 400,000 shares after the ruling came out. And the shares didn't nosedive to zero with no bids from the get-go. The judge's ruling discharges matters before the court relating to motions filed regarding Rotech's amended bankruptcy plan. But a bankruptcy judge cannot wipe out either civil or criminal issues not yet presented, at least from my understanding.
Anybody think Obus might have a rabbit or two in his hat that were not placed in evidentiary discovery and might have been withheld for precisely such an unfavorable BK ruling? These guys didn't just fall off a turnip truck. The big money would be with the noteholders and not necessarily Rotech, per se, if as an example some collusion might have been involved?
Thoughts?
Where are all the board regulars? Hard to believe nobody read today's news or has an opinion. Nobody even motivated to say "Oh, heck" or worse? Or better?
There is a tomorrow, you know!
I said it before, I expect Exide to trade in a channeling range for the foreseeable future. That sets up a nice play of the range if you buy around .15 and sell around .25. That's a 66% parlay, each time you transact that way and a nice multiple as long as "News" doesn't eventually catch you short.
Down with market, today, along with Target and Sears. Look for a better holiday season this year.
Looks like a Certificate of Death has been issued.
What time is the wake, and what are we drinking?
Hey, chin up, guys, you win some and you lose some. Getting to know many of you is worth more than the small loss. Thanks, everyone! Hope everyone will stay on for the new generation of drama at Rotech.
GLTA,
Yank
Form 4's are required for such amounts. Where are they?
Found it. Yup. The judge has ruled for insolvency and no further need for EC. Good find.
Everyone keep your fingers crossed for the dime, or a miracle.
Hey, it's only $$$!
Hate to burst your bubble but Tontine is Jeffrey Gendell who has held much of Exide, on and off, for around 15 years. If these are new positions a Form 4 is required by law to be filed and posted within 5 business days. I wouldn't get all that excited. There is NO PLAN filed and none expected to be announced anytime since. Common shares are in purgatory until some real plan of reorganization is proposed.
All I see is a meeting scheduled on the 29th, as originally planned. What docket number are you referencing?
I think it is up with no underpinning news. Hard to say.
This seems to be trading in a range and likely will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. This is a long haul outcome, good or bad. Be prepared for a marathon!
I said last week that I thought the judge had made up his mind as he scheduled 2pm hearings for Thursday regarding new counsels and waiting period waivers... the same day an omnibus hearing is to be held on matters of considerable import. I just do not know what he decided, or if he will grant a stay for further evidentiary discovery.
I know what you mean regarding Washington "pay for play" politics. but Rotech was a negligible contributor of late and whatever previous honoraria they doled out didn't seem to help them very much in their last overcharge dispute with CMS.
If you are that much opposed to Alsene, you should certainly not take any position in this company.
Sorry that you failed to read the detail in the link you posted which actually confirms my concern on the Enersys trademark dispute. Exide was maneuvering to try and convince the court that the Enersys claim was voided from their prior bankruptcy filing. The judge in the case smacked them down and threw their claim out of court. The judge's ruling was adverse to Exide.
Nothing that I posted was either a lie or dishonest.
Sometimes the truth hurts, but it is still the truth.
Sorry that you failed to read the detail in the link you posted which actually confirms my concern on the Enersys trademark dispute. Exide was maneuvering to try and convince the court that the Enersys claim was voided from their prior bankruptcy filing. The judge in the case smacked them down and threw their claim out of court. The judge's ruling was adverse to Exide.
Nothing that I posted was either a lie or dishonest.
Sometimes the truth hurts, but it is still the truth.
On one hand you ouuld say that Alsene's accompanying remarks made at that time were equally condemning as to games in "pre-arranging" things (setting up a BK well in advance)... but... on the other hand you could also say that so shortly having to renegotiation replacement DIP financing with the same lender actually confirms the immediacy of restructuring.
Said differently, what was the triggering event that triggered the triggering event? Wow, is that a mouthful, or what? I still think the seizure of records by the Feds, with no PR update offered since, is part of the rationale, but who knows if we'll ever find out? By the way, the Feds have issued no update, either, which I find interesting inasmuch as the Administration touts every opportunity to showcase efforts to contain healthcare costs on the CMS website and has remained mute on the Rotech case, including even an exhoneration alternative to charges and a fine. The whole deal is just plain strange, to me anyway.
I am personally not in love with Alsene, but remember he really only took the reins in January and he did, after all, inherit a legacy mess from his predecessor. Whether what he did was conspiratorial, unsavory or just defensively required by a macro environment of change that also claimed several, similar players for similar reasons over a similar timeline in the healthcare arena will take smarter guys than me to figure out.
I actually bought a riding mower from Sears, bought carpeting for an entire house from them and spent lottsa money on stuff for the kids and garage there. One day I went to the mailbox and had gotten a notice from Sears that my chargecard would be cancelled unless I immediately used it to buy something because I hadn't used it in a while. That's because I paid cash. So I cancelled the card and rarely shopped there for years.
I have mellowed a lot on Sears, since, and still like their quality on tools and hardlines which are pricey but well made and largely American made. I would actually like to see them get their act together. We all deserve something more than just a Walmart to shop at (no slight to Walmart intended).
I have placed you on ignore. Good luck.
Scanning a 10-K and discovering there are maybe a $ billion or two in additional contingent liabilities seems to be a good investment of time to me. But, hey, different strokes...
I just can't get into a flash mob" mindset when it comes to retirement money.
Exide does have potential for recovery. I said the same thing during their earlier reorganization. However, the last time out some C-suite genius decided to move the corporate headquarters from low cost Reading, PA to highbrow Princeton, NJ because they had a nicer country club, or something, and while shareholders were taking a bath, he was sitting in a spa, sipping single-malt scotch and lighting up Cohibas. Somebody mentioned Nero fiddling the other day; this kind of self-serving elitism still remains in parts of Exide DNA, today, from what I sense.
If you never learn from your mistakes, you simply repeat them over and over. There is a reason why this is NOT Exide's first Chapter XI.
ALL JMHO.
Well, unlike you I dislike their high prices, unrelenting pressure to sell service contracts and their appliance sales people with whom I had recent experience telling me anything but Kenmore is garbage. So I bought a Viking kitchen, elsewhere. Hey, I hope you like your new appliances.
I am not only NOT short, but I follow Sears because I sense they have an extraordinary opportunity to capitalize on the death throes of JCP. And, I have respect for what Eddie did at AutoZone which was a fave of mine for many years. But Sears needs some new blood, Eddie needs to quit micro-managing stuff he really doesn't "get" and somebody needs to drop a bomb on the Hoffman Estates Good Old Boy Campus before rigor mortis sets in.
If you read the 10-K you'll find that Exide places no liability value on contingent legal expenses. That to me includes as yet undetermined EPA claims, shareholder litigation and the trademark dispute with Enersys. The Frisco remediation, alone, was estimated by some to be $300,000,000.
There is a big "yeah, but" on the real estate owned by JCP & Sears. It is mall based, illiquid and virtually unmarketable. Walmart and Target are standalone. Kohl's is too small and constricted to matter in any serious way. Virtually all other mall-based retailers are small box and about as financially precarious as is Sears.
Some of the old KMart properties would suit a regional house like Mardens or Christmas Tree Shoppes, but they only buy at extremely distressed prices so value recovery would be WAY below book, IMO.
I actually thought Sears had a chance a few years back when they hired that fashion guru to run softlines and things really started to turn around. Then they bought KMart and the corporate culture swung from iconic brand management (Kenmore, Diehard, Craftsman, Lands End, etc.) to selling low quality junk at higher prices than Walmart.
It is a shame, actually. I was a Sears regular for much of my life. Now I won't set foot in one of their stores. I'd rather go to Macy's or Home Depot, depending.
You could be right, except on the "box of rocks" comment which is wrong, from knowing you awhile on other boards. It is my impression that the "confidentiality" claim entered the scene with the DIP financing afforded Rotech by SilverPoint. My memory could be faulty with so much water over the dam on this one for so many months, but that's my recollection.
My further recollection is that the Feds seizing records was the excuse offered for not filing Q & FY data with the SEC. I remember thinking that this was a shabby subterfuge borne out of convenience and it prompted some healthy discourse between me and J.T. about the character of the Rotech management team's tactics.
Maybe another board follower can refute or corroborate?
Contrary to popular myth, only annual reports are required to be audited. Rotech is withholding info for some reason, supposedly one relating to the Feds seizure of documents immediately prior to the BK filing. Several of us have said we are confused by the "confidentiality" blockade of info which was, by recollection, filed with and approved by The Securities & Exchange Commission, not the Delaware proceeding under the purview of Judge Walsh.
Some of your questions can really only be answered by the judge, but I am fully confident that NOTHING in this case will go unquestioned by the court as exemplified by Judge Walsh's earlier consent to additional and very expensive valuation studies requested by the EC. This guy is very experienced as shown in his CV that I earlier posted. If you can't find it, let me know and I'll try and find it for reposting.
My guess is that if shares continue to trade and are not cancelled, they will do so on OTCMarkets as, which J.T. pointed out, requires a sustained closing price of $2 which may some time to evolve into. A similar scenario would prevail if all the present common shares are cancelled and then trade under a new symbol after a debt for equity swap with Tier2 noteholders.
Don't bet the farm on this one. Just enough to have some fun and maybe, just maybe, get a nice bang if lightening strikes Orlando in the right "spot"!
I think your issue might better be targeted at Exide's CEO who was the one that stated that the shares would likely either be cancelled or so diluted as to be valueless.
Many hedge funds trade in and out of bankruptcy stocks. Bill Ackmann at Pershing Square has a longstanding track record in doing so, not that he necessarily is involved in Exide. If you go to Edgar.com and review the Form 4 filings it is easy to determine who owns 5% stakes in Exide. It sure ain't me!
A historical precedent worth noting for your interest... during their prior bankruptcy Exide similarly stated the likelihood thatall common shares would be cancelled and that is precisely what happened. Shareholders got ZERO.
What else is there? Here it is, for a second time:
http://www.exiderestructuringinfo.com/maincase.php
There are other risks and liabilities detailed in their last 10-K, if you need me to post it for you.
I believe there are many legacy costs inherent in this proceeding that far eclipse the Vernon Smelter situation, to whatever extent that problem has been temporarily remediated, if at all. One I mentioned recently was the trademark dispute with Enersys. It appears this costly issue remains on the agenda as a major liability.
http://www.law360.com/articles/44835/enersys-seeks-payday-from-exide-trademark-row
All these costs must be provided for before any consideration is afforded common shareholders. That's just the law. My feeling is that this will drag around for a few years with the share price trading in a range of 1 cent to 20 cents, then the shares will be cancelled or so diluted as to be worth no more than a penny or two.
I thought the law prohibited another bankruptcy filing for at least 10 years. Anyone know if that rule applies to when BK is filed or when a BK is adjudicated? In the latter case the Exide petition must actually be delayed until 2014 to be eligible. In the former case, Exide would be eligible as BK #1 was in 2002. But it is entirely possible that Exide's delaying strategy on filing an actual reorganization plan could result from a statuatory requirement to withhold a final plan until that anniversary date has been thresholded in 2014 (?).
In comparing the two BK's, it appears that Exide didn't learn very much from its initial filing. It's just SSDD with many of the selfsame issues still unresolved.
Simply stunning ineptitude, as another poster stated very well.
There is a wealth of information regarding the Exide situation available at:
http://www.exiderestructuringinfo.com/maincase.php
The items to the left can be clicked on and include the list of assets and liabilities that I posted yesterday that were ruled "off topic" (???). The docket listings can be viewed by clicking on the numbered data caches. The lower numbers are at the onset of filings and the higher numbers are the most recent filings before the court.
Checking back, the initial Exide BK was filed in 2002 and wasn't settled by the court until 2004. Is this a precedent? I also rediscovered the fact that the judge threw out their first asset valuation and said the creditors were due about 40% more than initially put forward by the company. Is this also a precedent?
I kinda hate to say this, and with no disrespect intended to J.T., but this is like poker money to Nelson Obus. Guys at that level relish the "win" more than the occasional cost of a loss.
Didn't the EC contest the resignation of counsel? I think there must be a genuine dispute, here, but once again the records are sealed which I find quite unusual and, frankly, questionable.
Maybe we will know more next week. Then, again...