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update mistake, yikes gfp, there are only 73x days left on those 75 apple puts i mentioned the other day. thought there was around 60 extra days there, man time zips along, ha. still they are a double so far, if i had a lot i would sell half, but they were more a statement to myself, rather than a bet on appl, so i'll hold on for now and sell near even if i have to........
i was able to unload those zbh puts and actually get money for them with just days remaining....even 50 cents on some, amazing since they were 95 puts, with price near 100, and i nedded the 91-92 range to be in the money if memory serves, so very happy to see anything there.....just 3 days left now.
thinking of adding flyer, non serious shares to ctix if it hit a buck again.
other than that just riding short, rest out of trying to keep trading account fun, ha............
hope you are doing well. (sister looked great and felt great at christmas, 9 mo. old grand baby didn't hurt, ha, thanks.)
a few, pcl as a "core div payer for the trading account. xoma that i told you about, about 10k shares now of thld, up from 1k when they got killed, few more at .58, few more at 48, few more at .46, tried for more at .422, with no execution, no hurry on that one, roll of dice only. maybe some in there at .44, forget.
shorted apple 75 puts, 808 days, back when it was 125 or so, just cause i was so pissed at absolute zero negative stories on it, remember the nifty fifty? kodak, zerox, many others that tanked or are no longer in business that absolutely could not lose back in the day, these fang stocks remind me of those. think i have 79x days left on those, maybe 78x.
still have 1k citx shares, hold till zero, or .......
never sold the zbh 95 puts, had finger on button for the hour i could have gotten 17,000 for them, but in the end it was pure greed that watched them go, almost, to zero, week left, good lesson. did ok with the 90 puts i had on it and sold, not at top, but ok.
still have huge hdge short etf play that has been doing well, 5 times bigger than next position, so there is that anyway......
hope you are doing well.
and so it goes.......EOM
A cold chill is blowing through the bond market
Sat, Jan 9, 2016, 1:26pm EST - US Markets are closed
Business Insider By Matt Turner
January 7, 2016 3:40 PM
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cold-chill-blowing-bond-market-204032845.html
It is getting chilly out there.
UBS credit strategists Stephen Caprio and Matthew Mish put out a note Thursday titled "Non-Bank Liquidity Chilled by Macro Shocks."
By "non-bank," the strategists basically mean the bond market. And it isn't looking good.
Risky borrowers are being shut out of the market, and that means companies are going to be left with no way to refinance debt they took on when investors were in a more forgiving mood.
Business Insider has been covering the sell-off in the high-yield market for a while now.
The pressure was initially kick-started by a slumping oil price, but has now spread across multiple sectors.
"This has significantly tightened non-bank liquidity, as low-quality borrowers are effectively shut out of the bond market," the note said.
"We estimate the weakness in non-bank liquidity is now at post-crisis highs, just surpassing levels seen during the Eurozone crisis."
Caprio and Mish cite two reasons for the continued pressure. First, there is the macro picture: a crashing oil price, weakness in US manufacturing, the strong dollar, and weak international growth.
Then there is the explosion in high-yield-bond issuance. Issuance boomed during the zero-interest-rate-policy era, and retail investors flooded in in search for yield. That has all come to a halt.
High-yield-bond issuance has exploded since the financial crisis.
"Retail investors have been exiting the asset class since the Fed stopped expanding its balance sheet. In recent client meetings, a renewed sense of caution is palpable from credit investors," the note said.
Issuance in the fourth quarter was "terrible," according to the note, which added that reduced issuance from lower-rated companies is "never a structurally comforting signal."
Then the note gets biblical:
While many investors believe that a reduction in low-quality issuance is a positive as investors are “finding religion,” it exacerbates refinancing concerns after committing the original sin of populating the credit markets with low-quality debt that is not easily purged.
Thx, I think I have that book around here from you mentioning it a few years back, but I hadn't thought of it in a while. In fact I mentioned it one Christmas and some extended family put it on their buy list as they are hardy readers.
I am so sick of feeling like I need to feel bad for who and what I am, and worked to accomplish in my younger days, that I can hardly stand it.
I have extended family who are environmental majors from liberal schools, brainwashed by liberal professors who never had a real job, and who went on and on about the "historic" climate summit, and did not appreciate my pointing out that it might have been the largest waste of hot air ever breathed out, as there are no penalties for non compliance, and gave lots of blow hard nato members reasons to keep their fat paychecks, paid in large part by part of their weekly paycheck taxes. Hate to see their country pulled out from under them, and they don't even know it.
One comment was "i just love B.O. and we all hate to see him leave, (like they were speaking for me, and from nyc, they just couldn't imagine anyone not loving him,) and then went on to say, we all hate H., but we will all vote for her anyway.....some meals my sister had to make 3 versions, regular, gluton free, milk products free. Don't know how she did it. I learned that things without gluton just pretty much crumble away.....real eye opener for us to see how parts of the country, coast to coast, are thinking, as the government takes more and more land out west, now over 50%, eminate domain can take their land for tax puposes, civil forfitures can take their stuff with no arrest, trial, representation, just taken. what used to be separation of powers can now just wave their hands and try to create new laws, kind of like cuba, putin, china, argentina, north korea, list goes gone, familiar formula, create bogey man, rally nationalistic pride, then get rid of those with disenting ideas, like the president of turkey recently pointing out how great hitler did all that, yikes. dangerous world.
our h. for prison in 2016 tee shirts, did not go over well, meant as joke, could hear a pin drop christmas morning. topped off by my pointing out that todays's folk hero's wave of hand, might not be so well received when someone is in there waving their hands, and they will, at some point, things my family does not agree with. oh geese, they hadn't thought of that, damage to the office/position held on our behalf, list goes on......
saw movie the big short yesterday, pretty good, most have NO CLUE WHATSOEVER. hours away from complete meltdown, can still the horror on our leaders faces as they came out of their meeting on capital hill on a thursday night, gaunt, pale, eye like coal, faces like aged ten years, fear in their hearts, as they heard what was possible before they started printing presses to delay whats coming.
ugg and hang in there, enjoy the time we have, ignore the background noise like the IQ wonderboy/man in The Big Short. ha.
Bill Gross thinks things are about to get so bad we're all going to need a Xanax
Business Insider
By Myles Udland
2 hours ago
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gross-thinks-things-bad-131421604.html
Bill Gross' latest investment outlook is out.
He thinks everything is terrible, basically, which is not new.
But as is Gross' tact, the beginning of his outlook begins with a parable (or something similar) illustrating exactly why things have gotten to dystopic in the world of investing. Or, as Thursday's outlook argues, the world itself.
Here's Gross (at length, emphasis ours):
The Romans gave their Plebian citizens a day at the Coliseum, and the French royalty gave the Bourgeoisie a piece of figurative "cake," so it may be true to form that in the still prosperous developed economies of 2016, we provide Fantasy Sports, cellphone game apps, sexting, and fast food to appease the masses. Keep them occupied and distracted at all costs before they recognize that half of the U.S. population doesn’t go to work in the morning and that their real wages after conservatively calculated inflation have barely budged since the mid 1980’s. Confuse them with demagogic and religious oriented political candidates to believe that tomorrow will be a better day and hope that Ferguson, Missouri and its lookalikes will fade to the second page or whatever it’s called these days in new-age media.
Meanwhile, manipulate (sic) prices of interest rates and stocks to benefit corporations and the wealthy while they feast on exorbitantly priced gluten-free pasta and range-free chicken at Whole Foods, or if even more fortunate, pursue high rise New York condos and private jets at Teterboro. It’s a wonderful life for the 1% and a Xanax existence for the 99. But who’s looking – or counting – even at the ballot box. November 2016 will not change a thing – 8 years of Hillary or 8 years of a non-Hillary. Same difference. Central bankers, Superpacs, and K street lobbyists are in control. Instead of cake, the 49.5% (males) will just have to chomp on their Carl’s Jr. hamburger and dream of a night with 23-year-old Kate Upton lookalikes that show them how to eat it during Super Bowl commercials. And if that’s too sexist, then Carl’s is substituting six-pack hunks instead of full-breasted models to appease the other 49.5% (females). It’s a Xanax society. We love it.
Uplifting stuff.
The main target of Gross' outlook, on a substance level, is the building wall of future liabilities facing the US government as a result of the aging baby-boomer population and the Social Security and healthcare obligations that are set to follow.
Essentially Gross sees the US facing a major demographic problem that will change the direction of financial markets in the not-too-distant future.
An increase in liabilities — both at the government and private-sector level — as the result of an increasingly dependent population long on elderly folks and short on young workers could see wages increase, inflation increase, and the long walk-down of interest rates finally reverse.
Of course, Gross has been waiting for yields to back up for a few years now.
It hasn't happened, but all the same.
Here's Gross' kicker:
Demographics may not rule absolutely, but they likely will dominate investment markets and returns for the next few decades until the Boomer phenomena fades away. The 1% – in addition to the 99 – will need extra doses of Xanax, or additional slices of cake, to cope in the next few decades. Let the games begin.
Read the full thing here »
Will the stock market’s house of cards collapse in 2016?
Published: Jan 4, 2016 2:08 p.m. ET
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-the-stock-markets-house-of-cards-collapse-in-2016-2016-01-04?dist=tbeforebell
It's the time of the year where Wall Street's seers dust off their crystal balls and peer into their tea leaves to augur what's on tap for 2016.
At 82 months, this bull market is much older than the average bull. It doesn't take a psychic to guess investors' most pressing question: How much longer can the QE and ZIRP house of cards stand? Will 2016 be the year stocks collapse?
What the seers see
In December, Barron's polled a group of 10 prominent Wall Street strategists. Based on their mean forecast, the S&P 500 will end 2016 at 2,220.
A year ago, the same pros predicted the S&P would end 2015 at 2,260. Predicting year-end price targets is a tough gig, and you can't blame (or should we?) Wall Street analysts' for being too positive. After all, peddling stocks is their bread and butter.
One reason even Wall Street's elite forecasters can't get it right is that their forecasts are based on yet another variable: Corporate earnings.
Trying to predict stocks based on earnings is like predicting the weather based on who wins the Superbowl. Adding one more variable doesn't make it any easier. How about we look at some actual facts, not additional variables?
What the indicators say: Liquidity
Investing is about putting the odds in your favor. What are the odds of a 2016 bear market?
Since we're talking about odds of a market top, it would be appropriate to look at the same indicator that correctly foreshadowed the 1987, 2000 and 2007 market top. This indicator's historic track record is available here.
The May 31, 2015, Profit Radar Report warned that — for the first time since March 2009 — buyers are becoming more selective (liquidity is drying up), which is what happened prior to the 1987, 2000 and 2007 tops.
This condition created a bearish divergence between the S&P 500 (which rallied to a new all-time high on May 21, 2015) and our trusty liquidity indicator (which did not confirm the May S&P high).
An updated look at this stock market liquidity indicator is available here.
What the indicators say: Investor sentiment
Investors are (and have been) somewhat bearish about stocks. Actually, it might be better to label investors as suspicious rather than bearish.
From the get go, investors didn't like QE and what it stands for (bailing out Wall Street). Ironically, this suspicion has fueled the post-2009 bull market longer than many expected. Bull markets climb a wall of worry ... and flame out in euphoria.
There's been no euphoria yet. The chart below plots six different investor sentiment gauges against the S&P 500. There was no euphoria at the May 2015 all-time high, and there's surely no euphoria today.
Whether this will be enough to extend the bull market remains to be seen. Ironically though, the lack of bullishness is the best thing bulls have currently going for them.
Based on liquidy (or lack thereof), the odds for a 2016 selloff are elevated. That said, investor sentiment may keep the down side limited or cause more choppiness (tug of war between liquidity and sentiment forces).
On a shorter-term note, the results of the so-called Santa Claus Rally (last five days of old year and first two days of the new year) will be in soon. Can you trust this old aphorism? "If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears will come to Broad and Wall." This report shows why you can't.
worst opening day in 84 years EOM
Record Federal Reserve auction suggests more problems for credit, mutual funds in 2016
Sun, Jan 3, 2016, 1:05pm EST - US Markets are closed
====scs=here, first post with 2.4 pound chromebook, which fits me great for laptop/tv viewing, love it, but still learning, this caught my eye as so many recent "canneries" in the coal mine bond stories of late, but maybe we can just keep printing our way out of this, because that always works for families and governments alike, not. end scs====
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/-475-billion-year-end-fed-auction-suggests-more-problems-in-credit--mutual-funds-023901085.html
Yahoo Finance By Jared Blikre
December 31, 2015 9:38 PM
Record Federal Reserve auction suggests more problems for credit, mutual funds in 2016
Yahoo Finance By Jared Blikre
December 31, 2015 9:38 PM
Something big is happening in the money markets--and it could be a harbinger of further hemorrhaging in the credit markets. It could also indicate there are more problems lingering beneath the surface of the mutual fund industry.
Three curious events at year-end
First, on December 31, 2015, the Fed sold an unprecedented $475 billion in Treasury securities to banks, brokers and funds through its reverse repo facility. This was the highest amount sold through the facility and was 40% greater than the prior high 18 months ago.
Second, a key money market reference rate, the general collateral finance (GCF) repo rate, recently shot to 0.55%, which is sharply above the Federal Reserve’s upper target of 0.50% for the Fed Funds rate.
Third, the actual Fed Funds rate crashed to 0.12% as of year-end, which is far below the minimum 0.25% floor the Fed is targeting. Although it is normal for the Fed Funds rate to dip lower at quarter-end and year-end because of peculiarities of the Fed Funds market itself, a divergence this great was unexpected.
View gallery
.Source: New York Fed, DTCC
Source: New York Fed, DTCC
When these two short-term rates diverge this much, vast sums of money are being shuffled around, which is confirmed by the $475 billion Fed sale.
The Fed's reverse repo facility
One of the principal tools the Fed uses to put a floor on short-term rates is its reverse repo facility, which had been in test-mode for over two years before the Fed finally raised rates on December 16, 2015.
Separately, the Fed also pays banks interest on excess reserves, which are currently $2.4 trillion. As Yahoo Finance reported, this is the conduit through which the Fed does its heavy lifting with respect to monetary policy. The reverse repo facility is for fine tuning, with the added benefit of an expanded list of counterparties representing a broader spectrum of the financial sector.
Each day, from 12:45 pm to 1:15 pm, the Fed transacts with up to 163 banks, brokers, government-sponsored enterprises and mutual funds. It temporarily sells Treasury securities to the counterparties on an overnight basis, repurchasing them the next day. The Fed pays interest on the cash it takes from its counterparties—currently 0.25%.
These operations entice counterparties to participate because of the rate of interest paid, which tends to be above the shortest-term Treasury Bill rates, as well as the zero-risk rating of the Fed itself. When it comes to regulatory and financial reporting, counterparty risk matters greatly.
Three problems for the Fed
Before the Fed opened the reverse repo facility in September, 2013, the GCF repo rate had been dipping into negative territory, indicating too much money was chasing too few bonds.
This highlighted another problem. The Fed had purchased so many bonds after three rounds of quantitative easing, there was a fear that in times of stress, there would be a shortage of high quality bonds to serve as collateral. High quality collateral is the currency of the shadow banking market.
The Fed already had a securities lending facility that could provide bonds to primary dealers. That facility charged, rather than paid, interest. And, it was limited to the 22 large broker-dealers that the Fed hand-picked to deal in Treasury auctions.
The Fed’s reverse repo facility, in contrast, has 163 participants, including 20 international banks, 13 government-sponsored enterprises, such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, 108 mutual funds, plus the aforementioned 22 primary dealers.
Critically, this allows the Fed to provide collateral to both the traditional and shadow banking system, where money market mutual funds are the principal source of funding. The Fed had created two emergency facilities in 2007 specifically to provide support to money market mutual funds. However, as they were only temporary, they expired long ago.
Accordingly, when the Fed opened its reverse repo facility, it was attempting to accomplish three things: (1) to test a mechanism that would be used to raise rates, (2) to help put a floor on short-term rates, and (3) to provide high quality collateral to the traditional and shadow banking markets.
Unintended window dressing consequences
When the Fed opened the reverse repo facility in September, 2013, it was putatively a test facility. However, the operations conducted were large enough in size that the counterparties were actually using it for window dressing.
View gallery
.Source: New York Fed
Comparing the various reporting days of month-end, quarter-end and year-end to all other days when reverse repos are conducted, it is clear that the facility is more heavily used on the more important reporting days. These entities must disclose their holdings as of these dates to both regulatory authorities and investors, so they are incentivized to make their balance sheets look as healthy as possible.
The GCF repo rate began spiking higher around reporting days, as participation in the Fed’s reverse repo facility on these days grew. The higher rate in GCF repo indicates lower demand for bonds in that market. Essentially, the Fed has been crowding out other, riskier markets.
A notable exception to the trend involves the two quarters ended June 30, 2014 and September 30, 2014.
View gallery
.Source: New York Fed, DTCC
Source: New York Fed, DTCC
On June 30, 2014, a then-record $339 billion of bonds were sold. The Fed took surprise action just prior to the next quarter-end reporting period when it announced there would be a $300 billion cap on the facility. Wall Street scrambled to find other window dressing substitutes, and short-term Treasury yields dipped into negative territory briefly. The GCF repo rate also spiked lower, as it was once again needed for quarter-end window dressing.
However, once the Fed raised rates in December, 2015 and officially switched the facility “on,” it raised the ceiling from $300 billion to $2 trillion. Its number one priority was maintaining the 0.25% floor on the Fed Funds rate. Ironically, it is the outsized usage of the reverse repo facility itself on December 31, 2015 that exacerbated the flight of liquidity from the Fed Funds market that, in turn, caused the rate to drop from 0.36% to 0.12%.
Problems with mutual funds
Third Avenue Focused Credit fund didn't make it to the new year, shuttering its doors after its assets shrank to $789 million, down from $3 billion at their peak. Investors won't get any of the remaining money until December, 2016 at the earliest.
Janet Yellen weighed-in on the matter at her last press conference. "[Third Avenue] had very concentrated positions in especially risky and illiquid bonds, and it had been facing very significant redemption pressures," said Yellen.
She also characterized the fund as "unusual." However, recent record redemptions in not only high-yield mutual funds, but also investment grade funds, tell a different story.
It is possible that mutual funds loaded with distressed debt could use another repo market, the tri-party repo market, to offload their underperforming assets in exchange for cash. This cash could then be used to temporarily buy high quality collateral from the Fed through a reverse repo. At year-end, their balance sheets would appear to be composed of higher quality assets with a higher quality counterparty than would otherwise be the case.
Data is scant with regard to the tri-party repo market, but the size of the year-end Fed auction tells the story. A healthy financial system should not need $475 billion in high quality collateral from a zero-risk entity, such as the Fed—unless there are problems with portfolio composition and counterparty risk bubbling beneath the surface--and it could be a harbinger of further hemorrhaging in the credit markets. It could also indicate there are more problems lingering beneath the surface of the mutual fund industry.
Three curious events at year-end
First, on December 31, 2015, the Fed sold an unprecedented $475 billion in Treasury securities to banks, brokers and funds through its reverse repo facility. This was the highest amount sold through the facility and was 40% greater than the prior high 18 months ago.
Second, a key money market reference rate, the general collateral finance (GCF) repo rate, recently shot to 0.55%, which is sharply above the Federal Reserve’s upper target of 0.50% for the Fed Funds rate.
Third, the actual Fed Funds rate crashed to 0.12% as of year-end, which is far below the minimum 0.25% floor the Fed is targeting. Although it is normal for the Fed Funds rate to dip lower at quarter-end and year-end because of peculiarities of the Fed Funds market itself, a divergence this great was unexpected.
The Fed's reverse repo facility
One of the principal tools the Fed uses to put a floor on short-term rates is its reverse repo facility, which had been in test-mode for over two years before the Fed finally raised rates on December 16, 2015.
Separately, the Fed also pays banks interest on excess reserves, which are currently $2.4 trillion. As Yahoo Finance reported, this is the conduit through which the Fed does its heavy lifting with respect to monetary policy. The reverse repo facility is for fine tuning, with the added benefit of an expanded list of counterparties representing a broader spectrum of the financial sector.
Each day, from 12:45 pm to 1:15 pm, the Fed transacts with up to 163 banks, brokers, government-sponsored enterprises and mutual funds. It temporarily sells Treasury securities to the counterparties on an overnight basis, repurchasing them the next day. The Fed pays interest on the cash it takes from its counterparties—currently 0.25%.
These operations entice counterparties to participate because of the rate of interest paid, which tends to be above the shortest-term Treasury Bill rates, as well as the zero-risk rating of the Fed itself. When it comes to regulatory and financial reporting, counterparty risk matters greatly.
Three problems for the Fed
Before the Fed opened the reverse repo facility in September, 2013, the GCF repo rate had been dipping into negative territory, indicating too much money was chasing too few bonds.
This highlighted another problem. The Fed had purchased so many bonds after three rounds of quantitative easing, there was a fear that in times of stress, there would be a shortage of high quality bonds to serve as collateral. High quality collateral is the currency of the shadow banking market.
The Fed already had a securities lending facility that could provide bonds to primary dealers. That facility charged, rather than paid, interest. And, it was limited to the 22 large broker-dealers that the Fed hand-picked to deal in Treasury auctions.
The Fed’s reverse repo facility, in contrast, has 163 participants, including 20 international banks, 13 government-sponsored enterprises, such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, 108 mutual funds, plus the aforementioned 22 primary dealers.
Critically, this allows the Fed to provide collateral to both the traditional and shadow banking system, where money market mutual funds are the principal source of funding. The Fed had created two emergency facilities in 2007 specifically to provide support to money market mutual funds. However, as they were only temporary, they expired long ago.
Accordingly, when the Fed opened its reverse repo facility, it was attempting to accomplish three things: (1) to test a mechanism that would be used to raise rates, (2) to help put a floor on short-term rates, and (3) to provide high quality collateral to the traditional and shadow banking markets.
Unintended window dressing consequences
When the Fed opened the reverse repo facility in September, 2013, it was putatively a test facility. However, the operations conducted were large enough in size that the counterparties were actually using it for window dressing.
.Source: New York Fed
Comparing the various reporting days of month-end, quarter-end and year-end to all other days when reverse repos are conducted, it is clear that the facility is more heavily used on the more important reporting days. These entities must disclose their holdings as of these dates to both regulatory authorities and investors, so they are incentivized to make their balance sheets look as healthy as possible.
The GCF repo rate began spiking higher around reporting days, as participation in the Fed’s reverse repo facility on these days grew. The higher rate in GCF repo indicates lower demand for bonds in that market. Essentially, the Fed has been crowding out other, riskier markets.
A notable exception to the trend involves the two quarters ended June 30, 2014 and September 30, 2014.
New York Fed, DTCC
Source: New York Fed, DTCC
On June 30, 2014, a then-record $339 billion of bonds were sold. The Fed took surprise action just prior to the next quarter-end reporting period when it announced there would be a $300 billion cap on the facility. Wall Street scrambled to find other window dressing substitutes, and short-term Treasury yields dipped into negative territory briefly. The GCF repo rate also spiked lower, as it was once again needed for quarter-end window dressing.
However, once the Fed raised rates in December, 2015 and officially switched the facility “on,” it raised the ceiling from $300 billion to $2 trillion. Its number one priority was maintaining the 0.25% floor on the Fed Funds rate. Ironically, it is the outsized usage of the reverse repo facility itself on December 31, 2015 that exacerbated the flight of liquidity from the Fed Funds market that, in turn, caused the rate to drop from 0.36% to 0.12%.
Problems with mutual funds
Third Avenue Focused Credit fund didn't make it to the new year, shuttering its doors after its assets shrank to $789 million, down from $3 billion at their peak. Investors won't get any of the remaining money until December, 2016 at the earliest.
Janet Yellen weighed-in on the matter at her last press conference. "[Third Avenue] had very concentrated positions in especially risky and illiquid bonds, and it had been facing very significant redemption pressures," said Yellen.
She also characterized the fund as "unusual." However, recent record redemptions in not only high-yield mutual funds, but also investment grade funds, tell a different story.
It is possible that mutual funds loaded with distressed debt could use another repo market, the tri-party repo market, to offload their underperforming assets in exchange for cash. This cash could then be used to temporarily buy high quality collateral from the Fed through a reverse repo. At year-end, their balance sheets would appear to be composed of higher quality assets with a higher quality counterparty than would otherwise be the case.
Data is scant with regard to the tri-party repo market, but the size of the year-end Fed auction tells the story. A healthy financial system should not need $475 billion in high quality collateral from a zero-risk entity, such as the Fed—unless there are problems with portfolio composition and counterparty risk bubbling beneath the surface
WOW, gfp, It's kind of a sad day, going back to around 1991, and seeing the billboard in myrtle beach, congratulating the CCC team for winning the ATT stock picking contest, where almost all of us had corx in our "fake" portfolios. We beat many of the Ivy League schools, (i think we had about 2400 students back then and the school is now known as CCU.)
ATT changed the rules the following year so teams could not all have the same stocks in them, and we finished second overall, all because of ole CORX. Our chief fundraiser for the school, Col. Baxter, since passed, once said, "that stock market contest was the best fund raising pitch I ever had in my 20x years. School now has "new" huge business building, I think named after him, not 100% sure on the name that one though as it was finished after I was gone, but still old CORX sure had a part in that schools business departments growth, and the professor that headed us up in the game, since retired, now has a gift fund in his name for the finance dept.
I, for one, will miss ole Cortex.
Take Care.
UPDATE China Seeks To Divorce The Dollar: What Next? 1998 Replay?
December 13, 2015, 7:00 P.M. ET
By Shuli Ren
http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2015/12/13/china-seeks-to-divorce-the-dollar-what-next/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
Ahead of the much-anticipated U.S. rate hike this week, the People’s Bank of China said it would manage its yuan to track a currency basket rather than its long-held stance of pegging to the dollar.
The PBoC will follow a wide range of currencies such as the dollar (26.4%), euro (21.4%), the Japanese yen (14.7%), the Hong Kong dollar (6.6%), the Australian dollar (6.3%) and other commodities currencies such as the Malaysian ringgit, the Russian ruble and the Canadian dollar. The U.S. dollar still is the heavyweight, with one-third stake since the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the U.S. dollar.
So is this a cover for more yuan devaluation? You may argue the yuan is too expensive. Based on this currency basket, the yuan has appreciated 2.9% since the end of 2014, while it fell 3% against the U.S. dollar.
I have three broker reports with me assuring us this is not another surprise attack from the PBoC.
The PBoC is just taking care of its own monetary policies. “It would be most advisable for the PBOC to continue loosening the de facto RMB peg with the USD in order to be able – in an ever more open capital account – to conduct a monetary policy independent of US policy and responsive first and foremost to China’s economic requirements,” noted ReOrient Research‘s Uwe Parpart. It makes sense, because since China is cutting rates, it has to let its currency go especially if the U.S. is walking the other way. ReOrient sees the yuan to fall to 6.8 by the end of next year, reflecting a gradual unwinding of the stronger yuan against the currency basket.
Capital Economics‘ Mark Williams said “as long as the trade-weighted rate is stable, we shouldn’t characterise this as depreciation.” The research firm also sees the yuan to fall to 6.8 by the end of 2016 before recovering to 6.5 in 2017.
Morgan Stanley‘s Chetan Ahya shrugged away the announcement, saying it was no news. “Based on initial comments from the policy makers in the media in the context of the policy shift on August 11, we have been highlighting that since the PBOC moved towards aiming for a stable trade-weighted RMB instead of stable USDCNY exchange rate.” The bank also sees 6.8 by 2016 year-end.
The PBoC statement was released after Asia market hours but before U.S. open. The response was fairly muted. The JPM Emerging Market FX Index fell 1.1%, driven by commodities currencies. The Russian ruble dropped 3.2%, the Mexican peso fell 4.2% and the Brazilian real was down 1.5%. Oil fell for a 6th day, down over 10% for the week. On Friday, the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) fell 2.8%, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) dropped 2.8%, the iShares Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (LEMB) was down 1.4%. The Powershares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) fell 0.4%.
UPDATE:
Last month, yuan bear Bank of America Merrill Lynch wisely warned us that China would “devalue yuan” soon after IMF’s SDR inclusion. We should have listened!
This morning, the bank had a note out disagreeing with its peers, saying that PBoC’s announcement spells more trouble ahead:
Under this event, we believe the central bank would choose to allow exchange rate adjustments to take place through a faster slide against the dollar by reducing support from FX intervention. In the context of the small devaluation on August 11th and the NEER index emphasis, the hurdle for another one-off reval is higher than before.
See also my November 23 blog “Merrill: Short Yuan Is Our Favorite 2016 FX Trade“.
Now Merrill is warning us of spillover effects. The Bloomberg Asia FX Index closed at 106.36 on Friday, breaking the trend support line of 106.52, in place since 1998.
In particular, we need to watch closely what happens to the Korean won, the Taiwan dollar and the Malaysian ringgit. In its currency basket, the PBoC gives the ringgit a prominent 4.7% weight.
This morning, the PBoC guided its yuan fix rate lower for the sixth day, to 6.4495 versus last Friday’s 6.4358, the lowest since July, 2011. The onshore yuan fell 0.5% to 6.48 and the offshore yuan dropped 0.2% to 6.5474.
Other emerging Asian currencies fell too. The ringgit was down 0.7%, the Korean won fell 0.7% and the new Taiwan dollar was off 0.3%.
UPDATE 2: Apologies for all the updates… The currency markets are moving much faster than I can type. The yuan’s losses narrowed. The CFETS RMB Index is calculated at 101.45 this morning (the base is 100, as of December 31, 2014). Markets are feeling slightly assured that the PBoC sees the yuan to be only 1.45% overvalued.
MF4, I noticed you have not posted in nearly a year.
Are you doing ok?
====I remember you said you had a Savage 24 in .22/.410.=====
yea, the local news said all the shops are full. if i did say i had an over/under .22/410, i think i misspoke, i don't think it was my families, but i def fired one as a kid. I took my gun safety class at my PUBLIC school, after school, taught by shop teacher, and was great class, teaching safety, how not to get shot crossing fences, no finger on trigger, basic stuff that I think should be a part of every gun sale, showing you know how to handle one before heading out with one. To me, that is common sense, not control.
My father demanded I take the class before he bought "us" a .22 bolt action that we used to shoot bricks of 500 at a time, through its 4x power scope, loved it, and actually got pretty good, for an 8-10 year old, then moved up to the Nylon 66, about 4-5 pounds, nice plinker.
not sure what will happen to industry if they are allowed to be sued for whatever neferious things folks might do with their products, ugg.
Wow, That's a beauty, looks like real wood....
Read that firearms makers all have been heading higher lately, but I don't track group.
Also saw where we can be expecting an executive fiat on gun control any day now, no congress, why bother with will of the people, just a wave of the hand.
It seems like a no brainer to ban folks on the no fly list not to be able to buy, until you look deeper and see that most are never told why they are on the list, have no way to get off list, at least not laid out for the everyday folk, and that the GOVERENMENT are the ones to put you on the list in the first place. I mean they already have the IRS, Justice Dept., Immigration, Some Defense folks, towing the line, or being told to, so what is to stop them from putting, say, Trump, who has concealed carry license, on the list the next time he says something they don't agree with. Would not put it past them.
===So, I suggest that you start ignoring the news. Rather, use all that time and energy to start building the kind of world you’d like to live in.===
that may not be possible after 8pm tonight......he could go completely off the rails, like saying he didn't have authority to grant 5 million non citizens, auto citizenship 20 plus times, then doing it anyway. left feels great about giving away the checks and balances, my guess is not so much when their person isn't dictator...by fiat.
now the nyt runs it's first FRONT PAGE OP ED IN 100 YEARS, to do away with 2nd amendment, put out by all it's editors, to the millions of ny'ers, just a couple days b4 oval office speech, can you say greasing the wheels in the never ending line of :narative: that started when janitors became sanitation engineers, ugg.
Hello Dew, First a direct Thank You from my sister, who cried when she got the list, one of the nyc names jived with what she had heard from her son In law, so she was sold to go there. She got to spend time with her grandson while there so she was almost singing when I spoke to her. no more melanoma, at least not big enough to show up on pet scans or their hi end ultra sounds, in any more than that first lymph node, that's now out, so the approach is just wait and see with pretty constant monitoring for now. She is relieved that she finally made a decision on how to go from here, and really liked the nyc doctors, very professional and in depth.
The Boston Symphony Director once sent his kid to be taught music under my sis at Hacstien, (sp?) school of music, many years ago, so she is not exactly easily pleased.....ha.
But on to PCL, Aren't we above the takeover price at this point? My brother also owns some and we were talking about the taxes via selling vs. what we thought would be an untaxable event of the two combining. Could there be folks who think another suiter might come along? I thought it was pretty much a done deal at this point.
And finally, do you have much faith, of knowledge, of the "new" management team of the combined company?
Hope you are doing well,
Thanks again from our family,
=== Derivatives monster ===
and I always remember to thank allen greenspan, at an advanced age.
IMF Lifts Chinese Yuan to Elite Lending-Reserve Currency Status
Move underscores China’s growing economic power; also designed to encourage more reforms
By
Ian Talley
Updated Nov. 30, 2015 12:59 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON—The International Monetary Fund on Monday is adding the Chinese yuan to the basket of elite currencies comprising its lending reserve, marking a milestone in the country’s ascendancy as a global economic power.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-lifts-chinese-yuan-to-elite-lending-reserve-currency-status-1448903067?mod=djemalertNEWS
==== To make the world safe for the Kardashians? ===
can't help it, that one got an unexpected burst of laughter out of the bottom of my belly, ha.
the rest of your two posts wanted me to fully load up to protect the home front and family.
the campus situation has crumbled to __________(you name the group,) will allow "journalists," to embed with them, as long as they have written a positive piece in the past about their cause....holy crap batman, not exactly free speech, or colleges providing a format to discuss and have dialog and learn, our way or you are a good for nothing excuse of human and maybe you should be killed, seems to be the order of the day.
no wonder they haven't been able to end trump's campaign yet, all about being pc incorrect, I for one have had it with feeling like I need to say I am sorry, for being who I am. rubio's got an ad out now that reminds of current commander in 2008, upbeat, scripted, heart string tugging....
once I had a pc collage age girl, friend of nephew, in my car insulting about all wwii vets, and I finally stopped the car and explained the only reason she had the freedom to talk like that without a german accent, under the threat of death or imprisonment, was for guys/women like that. gave her a choice to walk or shut up. no lie, I will never forget her slogan, "give me a cause, and I will protest it." IQ must have been under 80, likely with isis now........ugg.
OT- gfp, thx, one of the one's on the list was same as she had received from daughters husband, whose father sells items to nyc hospital, so she went to one of the nyc ones, and got to see her only grandchild while she was there.
met with doc, decided not to remove all lymph nodes, as pet scan was not showing anything in them, and I guess it doesn't under 1mm? hers were .67 in the one they removed.
so they did hi end ultrasound on her others and found no sign of it spreading to those yet, so she goes back in march for another one, will have pet scans in her hometown, along with 3 month visits to her regular skin doc, and they will go from, and decide on any future treatment from there.
I know my sis and she hates having it in her, but is glad it is not worse. I found out on thanksgiving. she wanted me to tell you and dew, thank you. my niece told me she cried when I sent her the list you two had gotten her, and both you guys remind me of brother, huge brains. ha, but true.
thanks again.
first it is rat out your neighbor for kids not wearing bicycle hates, then giving up one freedom after another, in the name of safety, makes me sick, and almost glad my father didn't have to live to see it. (he once shook patton's in a muddy field overseas, as a thank you for keeping patton's troops supplied.)
=== AVXL ===
I had just added this to my watch list in last couple weeks,
did it come from you?
I have none, much to my dismay.
=== tiger maple stock===
years ago saw a cousin with tiger wood kitchen table, chairs, and matching bar chairs. nicest I ever saw.
think he sold with house......
vanguard hasn't allowed new treas. accounts for years I think. and they limited transactions out on established ones to 10k a day back in 2011-2012 or so. 13 days, every day, to make one move. I think they would have allowed deposits back then if you had an open acct, but think the 10k a day limit was the same. don't know it they are still going by those rules or not.
think I remember reading that they were putting their own money into supporting the low interest rates offered at that time, not confirmed, vs the small fee to run fund. they were part of conversation in the press, to allow mm's to "break the buck," and to be honest I don't know how all that turned out, if mm's are allowed to break the buck now or not? God help us, kind of like negative rates in so many countries now.
their prime mm acct has not had rules like that on it that I know of, and I think they have a portion in treas, along with commercial paper and cash.
Take Care.
Debt Market Distortions Go Global as Nothing Makes Sense Anymore
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-15/debt-market-distortions-go-global-as-nothing-makes-sense-anymore
by Daniel Kruger t TheRealDFK Liz McCormick t mccormickliz Anchalee Worrachate t worrachate
November 15, 2015 — 12:00 PM EST
Updated on November 15, 2015 — 10:08 PM EST
Something very strange is happening in the world of fixed income.
Across developed markets, the conventional relationship between government debt -- long considered the risk-free benchmark -- and other assets has been turned upside-down.
è Five-year spreads turn negative
square before the information Five-year spreads turn negative
Nowhere is that more evident than in the U.S., where lending to the government should be far safer than speculating on the direction of interest rates with Wall Street banks. But these days, it’s just the opposite as a growing number of Treasuries yield more than interest-rate swaps. The same phenomenon has emerged in the U.K., while the “swap spread” as it’s known among bond-market types, has shrunk to the smallest on record in Australia.
Part of it simply has to do with the fact that investors are pushing up yields on Treasuries -- which guide rates for just about everything -- as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise borrowing costs for the first time in a decade. But in many ways, it reflects the unintended consequences of post-crisis rules designed to make the financial system stronger. Those changes have made it cheaper and safer to use derivatives to hedge risk, and more onerous and expensive for bond dealers to make markets in the safest securities.
“These kinds of dislocations can be expected to grow over time,” said Aaron Kohli, a fixed-income strategist at Bank of Montreal, one of 22 primary dealers that trade directly with the Fed. “The market structure and regulatory structure has evolved in a period with very low volatility. Once you take that away, it’s not clear what the secondary implications of that will be.”
Illogical Relationship
It’s hard to overstate how illogical it is when swap spreads are inverted. That’s because it suggests that governments are less creditworthy than the very financial institutions they bailed out during the credit crisis just seven years ago. And as the Fed prepares to end its near-zero rate policy, those distortions are coming to the fore.
The rate on 30-year swaps, which allow investors, companies and traders to exchange fixed interest rates for those that fluctuate with the market, and vice versa, has been lower then comparable yields on Treasuries for years now as pension funds and insurers increasingly hedged their long-term liabilities.
But in the past three months, spreads on shorter-dated contracts have also quickly turned negative. Now, five-year swap rates are 0.05 percentage points lower than similar-maturity Treasuries, while those due in three years are also on the verge of flipping.
Widespread Phenomenon
As the phenomenon becomes more widespread, it adds to evidence that it’s not just a one-off, according to Priya Misra, the New York-based head of global interest-rate strategy at TD Securities, another primary dealer.
“Everybody in the fixed-income market should care about this,” she said.
In the U.K., where the Bank of England is also debating whether to raise rates, the swap spread reached minus 0.05 percentage points on Nov. 12, the least since December 2013. The difference between 10-year Australian notes and comparable swaps fell to a record last week as speculation diminished the central bank will cut borrowing costs.
“Traditional pricing and relative-value rules are breaking down,” said David Goodman, head of global capital markets strategy at Westpac Banking Corp.
In a recent report titled the “Global Regulatory Crisis,” Goodman pointed to regulators’ efforts to head off another crisis as one of the reasons for the shrinking spreads.
Regulatory Crisis
One of those rules has moved swaps to central clearinghouses, which has pushed down costs by eliminating most of the counterparty risks of trading directly with banks. Another has been the so-called supplementary leverage ratio, an addendum from U.S. regulators to global capital regulations known as Basel III. In one part of the provisions, government bonds are considered just as risky as corporate debt.
è First decline in two years
square before the information First decline in two years
That’s made banks less willing to own sovereigns and pushed them toward swaps, which eat up less cash and aren’t subject to the same capital requirements. U.S. commercial banks cut their Treasury holdings for the first time in two years in the three months ended September, even as their total government debt positions, including those backed by federal agencies, have continued to rise, Fed data show.
“We saw a lot of this accentuated at the end of September,” said Yvette Klevan, a fixed-income manager at Lazard Asset Management, which oversees $165 billion. “They wanted to clean up their balance sheets by reducing bond inventory.”
With China poised to cull its U.S. debt holdings for the first time since 2001, the decline in demand is contributing to higher borrowing costs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries have climbed from a low of 1.90 percent on Oct. 2 to 2.25 percent as of 12:02 p.m. Monday in Tokyo.
‘Deeper Problems’
Longer term, JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates the U.S. government may face $260 billion in additional interest costs over the next decade as a consequence.
“This is not really just a somewhat esoteric story about interest-rate derivatives,” strategists led by Joshua Younger wrote in a Nov. 6 report. “Moves in spreads should be viewed as symptomatic of deeper problems.”
Another potential problem is that inverted swap spreads may ultimately cause investors and borrowers to lose confidence in the bond market’s ability to correctly price risk and provide capital to those who need it, according to Steve Major, head of fixed income research at HSBC Holdings Plc.
Demand for swaps, which has boomed in recent years as companies that issued fixed-rate bonds used the contracts to hedge away the risk of changing Treasury yields, also serve as benchmarks for a variety of debt, including mortgage-backed and auto-loan securities.
Smoking Guns
“The role of the bond market is to provide funding at the right rates for the real economy,” Major said. “That’s why the bond market exists -- to help efficiently finance projects, businesses etcetera. If that efficiency is undermined, it’s not going to be a positive thing for the economy.”
Whatever the reason, the severity of the distortions is unnerving many investors.
“What there doesn’t appear to be is any single smoking gun that says why swap spread changes have been so dramatic,” said Thomas Urano, a money manager at Sage Advisory Services Ltd., which oversees $11 billion. The big question remains whether there is “something bigger brewing under the surface that so far hasn’t been pinpointed yet.”
Something very strange is happening in the world of fixed income.
Across developed markets, the conventional relationship between government debt -- long considered the risk-free benchmark -- and other assets has been turned upside-down.
è Five-year spreads turn negative
square before the information Five-year spreads turn negative
Nowhere is that more evident than in the U.S., where lending to the government should be far safer than speculating on the direction of interest rates with Wall Street banks. But these days, it’s just the opposite as a growing number of Treasuries yield more than interest-rate swaps. The same phenomenon has emerged in the U.K., while the “swap spread” as it’s known among bond-market types, has shrunk to the smallest on record in Australia.
Part of it simply has to do with the fact that investors are pushing up yields on Treasuries -- which guide rates for just about everything -- as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise borrowing costs for the first time in a decade. But in many ways, it reflects the unintended consequences of post-crisis rules designed to make the financial system stronger. Those changes have made it cheaper and safer to use derivatives to hedge risk, and more onerous and expensive for bond dealers to make markets in the safest securities.
“These kinds of dislocations can be expected to grow over time,” said Aaron Kohli, a fixed-income strategist at Bank of Montreal, one of 22 primary dealers that trade directly with the Fed. “The market structure and regulatory structure has evolved in a period with very low volatility. Once you take that away, it’s not clear what the secondary implications of that will be.”
Illogical Relationship
It’s hard to overstate how illogical it is when swap spreads are inverted. That’s because it suggests that governments are less creditworthy than the very financial institutions they bailed out during the credit crisis just seven years ago. And as the Fed prepares to end its near-zero rate policy, those distortions are coming to the fore.
The rate on 30-year swaps, which allow investors, companies and traders to exchange fixed interest rates for those that fluctuate with the market, and vice versa, has been lower then comparable yields on Treasuries for years now as pension funds and insurers increasingly hedged their long-term liabilities.
But in the past three months, spreads on shorter-dated contracts have also quickly turned negative. Now, five-year swap rates are 0.05 percentage points lower than similar-maturity Treasuries, while those due in three years are also on the verge of flipping.
Widespread Phenomenon
As the phenomenon becomes more widespread, it adds to evidence that it’s not just a one-off, according to Priya Misra, the New York-based head of global interest-rate strategy at TD Securities, another primary dealer.
“Everybody in the fixed-income market should care about this,” she said.
In the U.K., where the Bank of England is also debating whether to raise rates, the swap spread reached minus 0.05 percentage points on Nov. 12, the least since December 2013. The difference between 10-year Australian notes and comparable swaps fell to a record last week as speculation diminished the central bank will cut borrowing costs.
“Traditional pricing and relative-value rules are breaking down,” said David Goodman, head of global capital markets strategy at Westpac Banking Corp.
In a recent report titled the “Global Regulatory Crisis,” Goodman pointed to regulators’ efforts to head off another crisis as one of the reasons for the shrinking spreads.
Regulatory Crisis
One of those rules has moved swaps to central clearinghouses, which has pushed down costs by eliminating most of the counterparty risks of trading directly with banks. Another has been the so-called supplementary leverage ratio, an addendum from U.S. regulators to global capital regulations known as Basel III. In one part of the provisions, government bonds are considered just as risky as corporate debt.
è First decline in two years
square before the information First decline in two years
That’s made banks less willing to own sovereigns and pushed them toward swaps, which eat up less cash and aren’t subject to the same capital requirements. U.S. commercial banks cut their Treasury holdings for the first time in two years in the three months ended September, even as their total government debt positions, including those backed by federal agencies, have continued to rise, Fed data show.
“We saw a lot of this accentuated at the end of September,” said Yvette Klevan, a fixed-income manager at Lazard Asset Management, which oversees $165 billion. “They wanted to clean up their balance sheets by reducing bond inventory.”
With China poised to cull its U.S. debt holdings for the first time since 2001, the decline in demand is contributing to higher borrowing costs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries have climbed from a low of 1.90 percent on Oct. 2 to 2.25 percent as of 12:02 p.m. Monday in Tokyo.
‘Deeper Problems’
Longer term, JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates the U.S. government may face $260 billion in additional interest costs over the next decade as a consequence.
“This is not really just a somewhat esoteric story about interest-rate derivatives,” strategists led by Joshua Younger wrote in a Nov. 6 report. “Moves in spreads should be viewed as symptomatic of deeper problems.”
Another potential problem is that inverted swap spreads may ultimately cause investors and borrowers to lose confidence in the bond market’s ability to correctly price risk and provide capital to those who need it, according to Steve Major, head of fixed income research at HSBC Holdings Plc.
Demand for swaps, which has boomed in recent years as companies that issued fixed-rate bonds used the contracts to hedge away the risk of changing Treasury yields, also serve as benchmarks for a variety of debt, including mortgage-backed and auto-loan securities.
Smoking Guns
“The role of the bond market is to provide funding at the right rates for the real economy,” Major said. “That’s why the bond market exists -- to help efficiently finance projects, businesses etcetera. If that efficiency is undermined, it’s not going to be a positive thing for the economy.”
Whatever the reason, the severity of the distortions is unnerving many investors.
“What there doesn’t appear to be is any single smoking gun that says why swap spread changes have been so dramatic,” said Thomas Urano, a money manager at Sage Advisory Services Ltd., which oversees $11 billion. The big question remains whether there is “something bigger brewing under the surface that so far hasn’t been pinpointed yet.”
OT- Many Thanks,
GFP recently reposted one of my posts about my sister recently being diagnosed with Stage 3 Melanoma skin caner and I was asking for any help if anyone knew who was considered a leader in this field anywhere in the country.
A fantastic list was forwarded back to me via Dew D. as "compiled by genisi"
I wanted to personally thank each of you and let you know that she now has the list and if she decides to go outside her local area, my guess would be NYC where she has a daughter and her first grandson, so the home front support would be fantastic for any treatment.
Once again Many Thanks, it is appreciated.
Many THANKS - EOM
OT FOR GFP
I found out my sister has stage III melamona skin cancer yesterday that got into at least one of her lymph nodes closest to the disease that was removed at same time. we were all surprised as my brother had one two or three times bigger removed last year and he was clean after they removed it.
I know the mayo clinic injected measles cells after altering them by removing measles bad calls and inserted targeted multiple myeloma cancer fighting cells with an astounding 90% success rate reported on one of the 60 minutes type shows I watched several months ago. My aunt and grandmother died of multiple myeloma, crappy bone cancer, and I have been tested after breaking rib jumping off couch during sporting event. (brittle bones are sign of mm.) I was clear, tested at mayo clinic in jacksonville.
guess my question is, do you know who in the country is on leading edge of myeloma skin cancer that is starting to spread, she won't know how far for a couple weeks when they do a pet scan.
As always, any help appreciated, and Take Care. Funny how money can sometimes have very little meaning.
isn't the china army about the size of every person in the usa?
boo on xoma, added touch of hdge at 10.26, low volume today.
the apple puts turned positive yesterday with 805 days left....
yea, saw that one, but reminds me of smart alac, want to slap his face, more unfavorable than the dentist who shot cecil the lion, stocks. (raised price on his one and only aids drug 5,500% right after acquiring rights. this one seems to have kept buying names on cheap, raising prices up to 500% on exsisting drugs and I have seen compared to Enron more than once, controlling market, so its hands off for me for now. they are even talking about replacing maverick ceo who put them on skyrocket path, then what? regular pharm is my guess with bad blood out there for talent in r and d.
did get the 10.28's, lots of time, no options in those......
take care and thanks for heads up
thanks for heads up on reed. got rid of tiny position for 5.07 the other day, which was a little odd, in that it was high for day at time, and I was selling, not buying. guess they just wanted some trades in it.
got a tad more hdge yesterday for 10.32, day b4 at 10.38 I think, have order in today at 10.28 and traded down to 10.2844, thought I was going to get it, now 10.3889 but days not over, LOL. yo-yo.
xoma seems to be firming a hair in here.
how many countries now have neg interest rates? it is insane, paying to have money kept safe, while banks get to use it in tax payer backed casinos. just freaking nuts when viewed with an eye backed up to the moon looking down at this time period. will we survive it is becoming more an open question imo.
bonds becoming increasingly more illiquid. cannery in coal mine.
take care.
yikes, that avxl looks like the corx we never got...on radar
noticed it was higher in both 2008 and 2011 than
it is now, so it is used to ups and downs, not for faint of heart
looks like about 61 cents last nov, to near 15 daollars now, oh if only corx, vega paty for sure.....ha
thanks and take care, keep em coming, espec when you get wind of em about 2 bucks, ha.....
to long to post "news" last night 4:42pm.
Amended Current Report Filing (8-k/a)
Date : 11/02/2015 @ 4:32PM
Source : Edgar (US Regulatory)
Stock : Cortex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (QB) (CORX)
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=69128560&symbol=CORX
speaking of xoma, it looks like 15 trades today at, or above 250,000 shares, with one going to 600,000+ in one minute increments, near 15 million shares by 11 am, at least it's liquid, ha. now 21+ million, call options have not risen as fast as I thought they would in this environment,
trying to buy way out of money 800+ day leap puts on apple but no bites yet. just for squids and giggles, ha. not very much. think people would rather jump out of window than not get newest phone but betting on law of diminishing returns, and sinking market brings down all ships should that happen in next 2.2x years or so.
Wow, 2.68 would set those extra calls I got with 440-450 days left as a 10-20 bagger, depending on extra for time value, but already written it off as loss in mind so can only be pleasantly surprised.
Man you got to see some good ones. At Watkins Glenn we were so far from stage, you could barely see it, and went with young girlfriend, so my interest was much more on her, ha.
I would have loved to have seen Stevie Ray. If he was at Watkins glen, I have no memory. I did see Edgar Winter using his, I think they call it a xylophone, and can still hear it like yesterday, biggest rock song at time and saw him in enclosed Rochester War Memorial. Lots of echo, but so loud you never forget, ha. I once saw Procal Harem get booed off stage there as they opened for some hard rock group, weird mix to pick as opening act with their laid back style, felt bad for them as they yelled at crowd.
Got to see BB King with George Carlon as opener, so I guess anything went back then, ha. George was brilliant but a little ahead of his time I think, until he got older. BB and his "Lucile" rocked the small venue to pieces.
Thinking of selling my small REED position and added a little to hdge today, not much, 10.38, as indexes hit all time highs.
Anyway, fun reminiscing, Take Care.
bg, back in 2003 I saw an ad on that bay site for tubes. guy was near little rock, ar. no pics that I remember, just the words , "I have barn full of tubes, and don't you be showing up in no little pickup truck and a uhaul trailer, cause they ain't gonna fit and I ain't helpen to load em."
so I called a buddy and we took his 10 cyl pick up and a 16 foot walk in car trailer after I won the auction for 1700+. figured we got 200 boxes of tubes, some hundred pounds or more, 10 tube testers, 13 full tube caddies, 27 old cedar military round crates, and boxes full of old tube magazines, the works. he got his barn cleaned. guy built cannons in his garage that could shoot a coke can filled with cement a half mile, we liked him. my buddy is strong Christian guy, and still travels country singing and putting out cds, and when the guy I bought the tubes from offered to show us pics of his wives titties, we left pretty quick, ha. still see the look on my buddies face.
anyway, figured I got between 50k and 100k tubes from that one trip, spilled out of trailer and pickup bed, cab, everywhere, filled my one car garage at the time floor to ceiling. sold 2200 dollars worth of them first week, paid for tubes and trip. always joked that they were "my retirement." Tubes were about a 200 million worldwide business back then. Last I read a couple years ago, they are now around 4 billion a year business, as folks have bought the old copywrite names of tung sol, gold lion, mullard and lots of others, some claim they are produced on the original equipment, but almost everyone agrees that they can't compete with the old 1950's-60's for the sound and those have skyrocketed, at lest some of them. you can even buy a tube cd player at Walmart that has plastic viewer that shows a china or russian 12ax7 tube glowing for effect.
I tossed out 5 90 gallon plastic trash cans over 5 weeks, full to brim, just to thin the herd I had in that garage, now surrounding walls of current three car garage. looking back, no doubt I tossed out thousands worth as new amps have been developed that use some of those tubes that were not popular back in 2003-4.
tubes are so cool as each one is a bit different and has its own life to it. like you, I thought I had blown out my ears, once falling, along with every one in the last row of the first section in the old Rochester war memorial to hear the WHO just before they destroyed their instruments. I don't even think we knew we were on the floor, and back in those days, security just came up to us and told us to have a nice trip as stuff was being passed around. oh how times have changed, ha.
ears rang for 3 days after that one concert, made Watkins glenn, weeks after Woodstock, 500,000 people was that estimate, then they started clamping down harder.
I guess point is, even after that misspent youth, I absolutely love the sound of tubes and can hear them breaking in over the first 100 hours or so. really open up, have soul, almost like living thing as tubes get used up and eventually die with the sound changing over time. I have some really nice class A solid state amps I don't even listen to any more. All tubes now except home theater tv system.
Anyway, one can start with a china amp and save 80-90% over a usa amp. Yaqin has a 100b KT88 push pull amp, well built for under nine hundred dollars, with upgraded power tubes, includes 3-5 day shipping from hong kong, in your home, 40-60 pounds.
Bob Carver of Carver audio is building tube amps on the bay site as he gets older, as is the retired founder of Cary audio now. I have one of his, 5 watt 807 single ended amp that is unreal, built for 24x7 operation, rolled the Russian tubes and WOW. So far I can't afford any of Bob Carvers, but his bay ads an the comments and questions he gets and responds to are fabulous.
I run all mine on variacs, allowing 110v on old dynaco amps and only 94.5v on my yaqin 100b, I have 122 coming into house and don't want to blast all that at once so I just turn them on slowly upping voltage. You can use one variac and power strip and control by actual switching on amps depending which one you are using, keeping 5 or 6 amps plugged into one variac that way.
on a stock note there have been at least two purchases of 350,000 shares during a one minute span today in xoma as someone either covers a short, or is looking for an upsided future......yea.
hollo xoma batman, ha EOM
options value question for board ????
so, I finally checked the chart of my zbh options today and it showed my position price as 2.20. I thought I paid 4 dollars for them with nearly a year left on them, down to 77 days now.
with stocks this same chart screen shows the dollar cost average basis price paid for each position.
so my question is, do you think I actually paid 2.20 each for them, and the 4 dollars was from something different I did that day, or would the options chart price my options differently from stocks? I just don't get a 2.20 position price vs 4 I thought I paid.
I am positive that this position price is adjusted with each stock purchase changing the average basis price, if I add an additional 1000 shares of something I already have, that price immediately changes to reflect new basis. but I only bought the option in one lump, so I would think the price would not have adjusted.
hummmm. any help appreciated. if I screwed up what I thought I paid, then my paper losses on the put would be much less, almost 50% less on that trade.
=== performed better than most investments ====
maybe even better are the original 1950's-1960's vacuum tubes lots of folks are listening to those albums on.
Saw a pair of WE 274b's listed for 16k a while back, folks used to throw them out...........
They go nuts for them in South Asia.
still have them, figure lost money now unless meltdown,
decided to ride them through earnings, knowing how a lot of companies had trouble with strong dollar in that quarter, and thought they might have issues with company merge, got both wrong looks like, oh well, can't play if you are not in the game, ha.
take care, on brighter side xoma had god day couple days ago with more than 1.xx years left on those. haven't even checked it today, missed mkt all day. hate I was a hair greedy on the zbh when I could have covered some/all at 72.5% profit that one day.