Hi Look1,

Glad to have you aboard.

However, I'm not sure you understand my question. what I was trying to determine was how much of the increase in revenue might simply be the result of adding Deltron books SOLM's revenues. As I said, I'm inclined to think that the effect is not significant, but until we see the numbers its hard to tell.

If you were referring, on the other hand, to my calculations of the implications of a SOLM win, I'm actually familiar with the Kolber nl linked in post #0004. I think that was put out before Solomon launched its ITC case. In case you have not been following the story, the reason SOLM is currently trading at this low level is that it lost the ITC case. There are many reasons to think that the results will be different in the Florida Federal court case, not the least of which is that it will be, pending the Judge's approval, a jury trial.

Since the Kolber newsletter it is noteworthy that, from a business perspective, SOLM has made impressive strides towards viability, unrelated to the continuing lawsuit. These include the acquisition of Deltron and Technipower, and impressive increases in revenue.


Cheers,

Ben

Do we have any idea how much of that impressive increase was due to the acquistion of Deltron? That deal closed on Septmber 3, 2007, and therefore I would assume that Deltron's 2007 revenues are not included in the 2007 figures. It appears to me that most of the big contracts in 2007-8 have been through the Technipower subsidiary, so I am thinking that Deltron may not be a major factor. Still, it is a consideration. Any idea how it figures in?

Thanks.

Hi Fivestar

Can you explain the term "print" -- and while you are at it, "paint," which you used yesterday in a similar context in describing price action?

Thanks,

Ben

Looks like another strong accumulation day. The Toy motion to delay may have slowed things down, but it doesn't seem to have dampened the accumulation process.

Hi KDSwing,

Your analysis is much appreciated.

Thanks, and best of the new year to you also.

Let's hope for the trumping news in volume!

-Ben

and this, specifically, about CMF:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:chaikin_money_flow_c

This may help:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:accumulation_distrib


A bullish signal is given when the Accumulation/Distribution Line forms a positive divergence. Be wary of weak positive divergences that fail to make higher reaction highs or those that are relatively young. The main issue is to identify the general trend of the Accumulation/Distribution Line. A two-week positive divergence may be a bit suspect. However, a multi-month positive divergence deserves serious attention.

Nice. Does anyone know how how to put that chart in context for us?

It looks good, but how good is it?

Yes, it would be nice to see a really solid contract in the low multi-millions. SOLM has done an excellent job, it seems, of continuing to bring in smaller contracts, up to about $1.5 million. These are great, but apparently "the market" wants something more substantial. One would think that they may well be poised to deliver on that score as the potential applications of the technology become more widely known and explored.

Go SOLM!

Aargh...well, for those who need a few weeks to raise some $ to get in, this is your big break...

One can't help but think that many of these sellers will be kicking themselves in a few days.

Thanks Pete, and Fivestar.

I should add the disclaimer that I am a complete novice, with little to no real background in investment. But I think the calculations speak for themselves, and are based on relatively conservative premises -- for example, the 500,000 US sales figure was as of Nov. 2007, so by now the total must be nearer 700,000 +, and by the time of a jury verdict (if that is what it requires) will probably be approaching a million.

Of course, if Toy decides not to deal, it could try to appeal to the supreme court which would delay any actual transfer of money, rendering the calculations purely theoretical pending a final legal disposition.

But, consider that for a company with $200 million in revenues and 200 million shares to be valued at $10 is only a P/E ratio of 10. Moreover, SOLM would also have no debt and lots of cash in the bank. Hence $20 seems like a credible upper range in the medium term if a win is achieved. And yes, we will all seem like geniuses if it comes to pass....:) So, it probably won't, but its pleasurable to imagine and calculate just in case it turns out that we are smarter or luckier than we thought...

PS -- to Fivestar.

Thank you for the pm's. I am unable to reply in private as I am not a premium subscriber to ihub. However, I appreciate your communication and hope to soon regard you as a prophet!

--Ben

Calculation of the implications of a SOLM win.

I'v been running over in my mind the likely scale of a SOLM win against Toyota. According to Wikipedia, Toyota has sold over a million hybrid cars worldwide since 1997; of these, over 500,000 were Prius sold in the US.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius#Sales


I'm not sure what the SOLM lawsuit covers, but we may safely assumes that it covers at least those 500,000 US sold Prius vehicles.

SOLM is sueing for $10,000 in damages for each of those vehicles. If it won damages on that scale, it would immediately accrue a $5 billion windfall, which is equal to $25/share, with 200 million outstanding shares.

This, to my way of thinking, represents the upper end of what SOLM might win in a successful outcome from the suit.

A more likely range, to me, for an actual settlement, would be $1-2000 per vehicle (this dosn't mean I don't think SOLM is right to sue for a lot more, merely that I think it unlikely in the final analysis that a jury would award that much). Even this quite realistic lower end would still mean windfall profits in the range of $500 million- one billion, or $2-5 dollars per share!

Of course one must add to this the enforcement of a licensing agreement that should accrue to SOLM $200-1000/unit on sales that will be in the range of 250,000/yr. Taking a modest median figure of only $500/unit, that equals annual revenues in the range of $100 million/yr, or .50/share.


Since a win would also likely mean a landslide of other contracts for SOLM (Toy, it is relevant, has brazenly licensed SOLM's technology to GM among other US automakers), it is safe to project that SOLM's annual revenues, in the event of success against Toyota, will more likely reach $200 mill/year in short order.

From these calculations, I would conclude that SOLM's actual value, in the event of a win against TOY, would be on the order of $10-20/share within less than two years.

I agree with other comments that even if SOLM does not prevail against TOY, it is a company with bright prospects. Although there is real risk as a result of SOLM's debt, the fact that SOLMs technology is being used in a range of applications, and small contracts continue at a steady rate, I think the company will succeed and return a handsome reward to investors even without a TOY win. However, a win will catapult us into the stratosphere and reward longs many hundreds of times over in very short order.

Happy Holidays to all!

-Ben

And here's to a successfull new year for Solm!

Seems to have worked for the day. :)

anyone have some informed speculation on this?

My impression is that:

1) We are waiting for solm and toy lawyers to pick a date to reargue the issue of whether solm's expert will have access to "classified" toyota documents to prepare solm's case;

2) once this has happened, the judge will rule on that issue;

3) then solm's expert will consult documents and make the case for the jury trial

4) sometime in the next decade [irony off] the judge will finally rule on whether or not the jury trial may proceed.

At that point, if the ruling goes our way, all hell will break loose, share price should finally start to rocket up, and toy will have to decide what to do.

I have little idea what timeline is realistic for any of this. From the pace things have been going, I would expect that we should get the hearing and ruling on the expert within 6 weeks, but it could be that long. As for the rest? March? February? Late January? for a decision about whether the jury trial can proceed.

Anyone know? Unfortunately, Lawfighter, who has better info on the case than just about anyone, is not posting to this board. You can read his updates on the yahoo board.

I remain optomistic despite the slumping prices due to debenture and mm selling.

Cheers,

Ben

Thanks for the reply.

Do we have any idea what percentage of those debentures have now been converted and sold? Are we halfway through the selling? More? Less?

I'm buying. :)

Thanks for the details!

Yeeha! Now we're cooking with gas.

Details?

Fivestar,

Thanks for your continued efforts to keep us all informed.

Thanks for this reminder. Dunn's credential's are indeed impressive. I'm holding.

As an outside reader to this forum, who was interested in the technology espoused by GRC, am removing the forum from my saved list.

I was originally impressed by the large number of posts, which indicated to me a broad interest in GRC and what is is doing.

Unfortunately, I have been underwhelmed by the almost absolute lack of substance in the posts to the forum. That goes for both sides in the debate. However, given that the advocates of GRC are the ones who have to prove something, I would conclude that a greater share of the responsibility for the failure to promote the company's credibility (by, among other means, ignoring personal attacks and sticking to promoting their company with facts and arguments) must lie with the bulls.

Over and Out. Good luck to everyone. Caveat emptor.

Ben J.

Holy smokes, there it is, we just mine methanol from those 300 bill. miles of reserves.. No need for algae at all... LOL.

Thanks for the information. So, I assume that generating methane from algae should be a fairly straightforward process. Is that correct? And once you have methane, how expensive is the oxidation process you describe?

ok, here's another question then: if methanol is in some sense better than ethanol, as per the previous post, as an alternative fuel, can algae based ethanol be inexpensively converted to methanol as a second stage extraction? Or is that process so complicated or impossible in theory that it would make more sense to burn ethanol directly?

Professor David Brune and students from Clemson University (CU) are working on extracting oils from algae to convert into biodiesel.They proposed a novel method which uses Brine Shrimp to Extract oil from algae.


Its interesting to observe that, in the search for alternatives to oil, as well as in medicine, agriculture, and many other fields, human beings are extending the original biochemical revolution -- namely the "beer revolution," We see that working *with*, rather than against, nature, is the best strategic option.

Brine shrimp harvesting oil from algae? You gotta love it, whether or not it wins the top prize or not. It's putting to work a whole little ecosystem for productive purposes. No doubt there are many other creative ways to model this same idea.

Hmm....interesting idea.

ok, thanks.

Your analysis is right on target, it seems to me. While there may be a few months or even short years of difficulty for alternative energy companies, the 5-10 prospects look incredibly good for the companies themselves (those with enough resources to stay afloat), and even better for investors who position themselves now when prices are still depressed by the temporary overflow of traditional energy sources.

A simplistic but important question (if this analysis is even partly correct): can algae produce methanol?

Let's hope both suggestions bear some fruit. Even if Lovins was only assistant to some more prominent public figure like Scharz, it would make a huge difference in policy. He's been promoting biofuels for decades now, and I'm sure he's kept tabs with the evolving science that points to algae as the most promising of the current biofuel options.

Thanks for the info, Fivestar!

Anyone know why? High volume, sliding prices....Is there bad news coming, or is this just the usual market anxieties?

Yes, congratulations, folks! Don't let the temporary downturn in gas prices get you down.

Nice article. Thanks for the post.