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Thanks, Glen. Just saw this and really needed right now to see something like this.
September , closer to Opex than Labor Day. I think I may have posted this. Maybe even ten times.
Lol
Good Lord. Manually? Eom
Morphius, very interesting. How many strikes do you go out above and below the atm strike?
Let's live for the moment and thank God for what we have, including our immortal soul, then.
I have upped my prayer practice in the last few weeks.
Many blessings to you.
I don't think so. I have a feeling that something (bad) is going to happen in September. It's supported by a number of negative divergences, but we all know that can go on for a long time.
Usually when $nymo makes it's first dip down after being above the 0 line for a while, there's a retrace back to the 0 line.
Hi and hope everyone is doing well.
I have a very bad feeling about September. I had it all the way back in April of 2020. It came on all of a sudden - and boom, it went away and it's back and even stronger. I hope I'm wrong and it's just anxiety about the general world situation messing with my mind. No TA other than the buildup of neg divergences to support it. But it feels bad, not just stock market correction bad. That's why I am posting it.
Last time I felt like this was two months before 9/11. Then I had a dream about it four and also, three days before it happened, which I won't share now.
I am sharing this at the risk of tomatoes and eggs, and mud being thrown at me. On the other hand, cake in my face would be all right.
I really, really hope I'm wrong and that it's just anxiety in general.
Hurst projection to 535 on intraday chart. Large call OI all the way up to about 600, and out to mid September.
I have up for next week, even if we gap down Monday. Probably wrong.~d eom
I am/have been thinking sideways to up until Labor Day at the very least, then down after the 14th of Sept.
NVDA back up to 500. I couldn't believe they flatlined it after earnings, those meany MM'. No fun t'all.
I seem to be coming on here every week to post that, lol.
7/31 not 7/21 for the 'early Hurst low'.
(edited) Dr. Jerry, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that this current decline is a short Hurst low; it's possibly even a late 20 week low, rather than the early 7/21 posited 20 week low.
If so, we'll know by the end of the week as 330 should hold short term.
I still have us going up on balance until Labor Day. This projection is particularly pertinent since NVDA had record sales.
GOOG did the same thing a couple of times, flat lined after earnings then skyrocketed higher after a day or so. However, to the best of my recollection, they never rallied the price to the analysts' higher projections first before earnings (500).
That seems to be a new thing and somewhat party pooper-ish and mean spirited as it takes all of the excitement out of earnings and deflates both bulls and bears alike.
But on the other hand, the NVDA options MM's must be partying right now with champagne.
Institutions reduced exposure to NDX last week...
Where's Netneutral these days? I sorta miss him.
19th, plus minus 3 days.
After, I think. I'm just glad they don't post Friday after the bell.
Weekly credit spreads and iron flies really good right now too. Let's one actually take a break now and then from computer. Being lazy and not looking at my charts today. Eating cherries and spitting the pits at my kitty.
Lots and lots of good shorts coming this way to a station near you soon.
Do you think NVDA could actually hit 600 tomorrow after earnings?
I hate that it reached my target before earnings. Now I don't know what to do.
I never thought of even noticing something like that. I always assumed that everything was being manipulated, always. So you're saying you've never seen anything like that on a 2 hour, ever? I mean like, ever?
Interesting.
True there's all kinds of neg div building up, including Hindenburgs, etc. Still think we're in a flat and going up to 3440 - 3442. With a not to your potential decline first possible, of course.
As I stated before, everyone waiting for NVDA, then Memorial Day. Great week for credit spreads and being lazy and going to the beach. Market coiling up and a move coming.
Then the first string MM's get into gear in September and we shall see.
Closed my long yesterday on NVDA too soon (486 yesterday), but capital preservation is king and I had a 490 call expiring tomorrow.
However, it always seems with NVDA I'm sitting there,scratching my head with a dazed look on my face as I say, "I didn't think it would go so high in two days!"
Like what, Ferda, green? Just been following the chart. I'm salivating to short it, it has projections all the way down to 363.
Might buy a $1100 lottery put on TSLA too for Sept monthly Opex. LOL, the little car that couldn't. Did you ever see the news video on Youtube showing the Tesla police car's motor blowing up in a real life police chase?
Not an Ewaver but this thing looks to be like in some kind of 4 flat. Which means 5 is next, congruent with my last post.
3442 is next. May be the final high for this year. Everyone expecting 3600 and I actually have it as a Hurst projection.
Short/long credit spreads or iron flies terrific for this kind of market on SPX. Maybe a 350/335/320.
Everyone waiting for NVDA as I said last week.
Max pain is between 37 and 38.
Can you clarify, thanks.
As a caveat I now have a 4100 projection on the SPX on the weekly. If we don't turn down by September, I might around and go long, but I would be terribly uncomfortable with that based on sentiment and risk, and may stick to individual issues and day trading.
Stated since May I was calling for a late August high (possibly until early September), then down. Institutions reduced their exposure to NDX last week.
I thought albeit with no supportive TA, that the sentiment calling for a decline after elections was too easy, and that the CIT (change in trend to down) would happen in September out of the blue (not COVID). Still thinking that as most potential course.
And finally, I recently posted that gold and SPX are closely correlated in Hurst methodology and that gold is leading by a couple of days. GOLD gapped up today and I am finally looking for negative divergences in longer term intra-day charts such as the two and four hour in GOLD.
I am hoping to use gold if it maintains it short lead as proxy for a coming decline in the general market. Also NIKK, Hange Seng, $KOSPI, etc.
Glen, you and many other people have said that TA doesn't work anymore due to FED intervention. Basically, yes, but for weekly and monthly charts it's still hard for the algos to distort technical patterns.
Yes, pinning happens quite often and revolves around delta hedging. Max pain also could be called pinning. However, I have often seen ‘pins’ adjusted in the afternoon on Opex days, so I just use it as a mi or tool.
Better to understand gamma strategies. Some good book out there.
Did news come out after hours? From about 4:08 till 7:00 price on the chart looks likes someone playing ping pong.
It's fine, have a good weekend!~d eom
Anyone remember Airedale88 from Raging Bull? He was an amazing Hurst technician, my mentor and my friend. He often stated that gold and the SPX followed the same dominant cycle. Other Hurst analysts strongly disagree. However, you can really see the correlation in the 4.5 year low in March of this year. Gold bottomed about 6 days early and has continued to trough a little earlier in it's cycles since then. In addition, the cycles have been much clearer in the troughs than the SPX, with the fiddlin' Fed.
This week gold put in it's 20 week bottom. If the correlation is still there it means that the SPX should soon follow suit. Gold's peak before the trough was right translated (the top was just before the trough), which is bullish. In fact, it was exactly what I was hoping for from the SPX.
However, what's interesting is that it is a week late. This is bearish. If the cycle was still in warp speed bullish mode it would have been early, let alone on time. This hint of the bear may be a tell for the SPX going forward into the fall.
David Hickson of Sentient Trader believes that the SPX 20 week low was early, on July 31 (very bullish). I am not so sure I agree and if it troughs next week, it will also be a week late.
We will know next week.
One of my guru subs said this morning that it looked like the 334 put could be pinned today at some point. I don't know if that will spill over until Monday.
It could certainly gap down, so far I would probably buy that gap down.
Everyone will be waiting on NVDA next week and we could see another narrow range week until Wednesday. They report after the close.
I will probably buy any gap down on Monday, or better yet, sell 8/21 330 puts. May see a narrow range as everyone waits on NVDA earnings Wednesday afternoon.
Next rampo, methinks. I mentioned last night on Twitter that yesterday, there was not even one requirement present out of the four necessary for a Hindenburg Omen. That doesn't happen very often and is bullish going forward.
NVDA, the darling of the analysts, reports on the 19th and that may usher in curtain on the spirit of the bull rally we've seen since April, although market may go up until a little after Labor Day.
Just thoughts, and of course, could be wrong.
I have a Hurst projection to 500 +/- on NVDA.
Agreed (up).~d eom