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Inovative or not, GTCB is a penny stock (or was post R/S) with not a word from our leaders about how they plan to procede. We wait in the hope that that Dr. Cox meant what he said about proceding forward in "some style." The fact is we must believe that we are facing impending bankruptcy by the balance sheet. Its hard to understand why they would wait to unveil good news if they have it so most have concluded that they don't. As for me, I still hold because they are innovative, forward looking (at least with the science) and yes, exciting, with great potential. I hold because the company has said publically that they are optomistic and have not indicated otherwise. Cox said the "going concern" warning was proforma and he thought things would turn out OK. So I hold. I can't imagine he would have lied nor would he have waited until now to tell us if things had changed. Most appear to have believed otherwise but surly given the responsibilities of the board and the management to its shareholders they would have told us. bp
Having an enthusiastic, diverse and competent board of directors surely serves to protect stockholder interests. Cox has assured us we are in late stage discussions with partners to refinance the company. New meds are going into clinicals in 2010, Atryn for the DIC indication interest is strong. Japan wants it too. There is enough money in the till to survive for three more weeks, that's plenty of time for the rabbit to appear. Surely if it were otherwise they would tell us and not lead us on. These late stage discussions must be about ready to close and give the company new life. The management is planning for big stock bonuses with an appreciated stock price and has reserved 10% of the company for themselves. They must be expecting good things. Is Rusty boy still in? bp
La Belle Indifferance has been a real concern in trying to read management. They over the years it could be argued squandered millions on projects that went nowhere (bovine albumin, malaria vaccine, partnerships for AT III as a neovascular inhibitor, the list goes on.) They have shown no fear nor have they taken any major steps to conserve resources and concentrate on some cash cow income producing program that would sustain them until the real cash started to flow. So, either they really have a plan (big pharma, Japan etc) or they really have no care for you and me since we are not the sugar daddy companies they expect to continue to support them. But to show not a care! To not reassure their stock holders (they of great patience!) Its hard to understand. This last glitch was a doozy with no recording of the annual meeting, no minutes to review no opportunity to hear questions asked and questions answered. Just slides (but no real context, tone, etc.) and a patronizing pat on the head from Tom. Infuriating. bp
That's correct. They are out of cash by the end of June, unless there is some new infusion. The Dei ex machina plan. bp
That's convenient.
I have nothing but silence. bp
I agree, there is little reason to hold back good news except to temper the tempers which may flare tomorrow. That strategy might help to put a better face on things when management faces their shareholders. I doubt anyone besides LFB will be at the meeting anyway, it aint like its Berkshire Hathaway. I do think Cox has some good news up his sleeve to show we can still be a going concern but unfortunately, at this point most will have stopped listening. bp
OKY, It does get worse doesn't it? Soon it will just be the hole in the bagel to be savored. I suspect the bad news will be tempered with something tomorrow, probably not much. bp
OKY, keep the faith. Cox has said that Atryn (and FDA approval) are the keys to unlocking the value of this technology. Enough time has elapsed for any talks that were contingent on approval to come to fruition. If on Wed we still hear the same "we continue talks with interested potential partners" I agree that would be bad basically because we have no money. And as my sagacious grandfather told me "no money?, no money." bp
MCC-I hope you are wrong about my confusion.
I think all of you are wrong and GTCB will announce a deal for a FOB with big pharma soon. bp
I believe (strictly via recall from the last annual report) that 360 million or therabouts is close. bp
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GTC-Biotherapeutics-Regains-bw-15219414.html?.v=1 I'm sure Dr. Cox and Co will be crowing about this tidbit. (Market cap 35 million--how much have they spent so far--about 10x that amount) bp
Dew, your predictions have been consistantly right and applicable to the past 20 or so conference calls. Why is this one different? 1. We are over a barrel and Cox needs to do something dramatic to restore confidence. 2. We have an approved and maybe even marketed product in the US, this is new (I state the obvious) but may be the thing to bring the next partnership out into the open. My predications will be "out there". They are: a partnership for CD 137 (this based on serious overinterpretation of the remarks in the annual report emphasising the need for tonnage quantities and potential clinical importance, receipt of state funds to further support operations, an update on the malaria vaccine (this based on Dr. Meade's 2007 poster at BIO) and...OK I don't need to dig the hole any deeper. I hope the call will not be as devoid of concrete good stuff you you suggest. The DIC trial? Well probably not yet. Regards, bp
Flo, Taiwan???
Thanks imnot6, should make for interesting late night reading. Any mention of trangenic production? Regards, bp
Thanks imnot6. Will be watching. bp
There was supposed to be an FDA meeting in late March re future regulation regarding use or development not sure exact content of meeting re Alpha 1 antitrypsin, anyone have any information? bp
Vin, I have always admired and valued Dew's insights and ideas. He was the first I believe to point out that something was not right in the relationship between LEO and GTCB. He suspected it was a safety or efficacy issue but it may turn out to be something else, but what we don't know yet. bp
I am pleased to see I was incorrect in my assumption the the sale of Ovation to Lundbeck would focus only on the neurology product line and deemphasize Atryn. This appears not to be the case and I am reassured by today's press release. bp
Thanks for checking out the timeline. If that's the case then I agree the ruined batch probably had little to do with the sudden absence of interest in the DIC trial by LEO. bp
Vin, GTCB did say it was not their fault but that of the contractor and was compensated for such. But I would guess that the contract with LEO would have the "buck" stop with GTCB so the responsibility for supply to LEO would still be theirs. It did take LEO forever to get pricing, who knows even where it stands now. It could be that they (LEO) will take the position that lack of supply (from the fill and finish debacle) hindered either pursuit of European pricing or proceding with the DIC study because the drug was not provided in a timely fashion. What else might constitute "cause" even if they were just stonewalling to try to get out of the contract? bp
Flo, Remember the fill/finish problems GTCB had in the not too distant past rendering a whole lot of Atryn unusable? This could have resulted in delays in delivery which in LEOs view might constitute "cause". Without knowing how the contract was constructed this is of course speculation but would be interesting to know the other side of the argument. Regards, bp
I want to be careful not to state the obvious but isn't humulin made in recombinant E. coli? Does anyone think this form of production has a long future ahead of it? It takes vats of bacteria to make. Could today's announcement be a hint of a paradigm shift? Maybe this is the purloined letter for which we search. Cox and Dong, you gotta love it. bp
I was under the bus so it was a little hard to hear but did anyone else hear Dr. Cox say he expected to be cash neutral or perhaps cash positive in another 3 to 4 years? bp
Vinmantoo, I find your comments patronizing, self rightous, and self serving. I am placing you on ignore, please feel free to do the same. bp
Very so. Atryn of course not being "currently on the market". Let hope for some clarification tomorrow. bp
OK Vin, Enough! My comments were based on the PR from Lundburg which to my reading made no mention of supporting the existing GTCB program with Ovation. Ovations PR as pointed out to me by flo did made such mention. Since the owner to be of Ovation did not feel it important enough to mention in their announcement I felt it might represent a less than full commitment to the program. Still do. And that was my point. Still is. bp
Thanks for pointing this out to me, flo.
Now really, Vin bp
OB, you are right they cut a lousy deal and now that a company that is committed to a line of CNS pharmaceuticals that now has bought Ovation, I suspect they will support that line strongly. That they had to buy the whole company with its prexisting obligations is not in question, its just once they own it, the GTCB connection may not be part of the company's long term goals a la LEO. Perhaps they pay a penalty or some such. UNLESS, they are looking to diversify in which case maybe they get the motherlode. Doubtful in my opinion. bp
Flo, Thanks for posting the link, I had read it when you did and noted that reference to GTCB comes really from the Ovation standpoint as a prexisting condition, if you will. No mention of GTCB and Ovations relationship with them is mentioned in the Lundburg PR, that's my only point here. Its just not important to them I think and with good reason. It just doesn't fit their strategic plan. I think they will try or already have jettisoned it. I just hope we find a comfortable home. Oh, and thanks for the regulars for standing up to the "bashing" charge for me. Its good to have friends. So far we've all been poor together. May that change, and soon. Regards, bp
Good point, lets hope for triumph tomorrow!
OB, I had my hand on the phone this morning to call my broker to buy thinking the coincidence of the Friday approval and the acquisition announcement of today was not accidental. Help me understand here how GTCB "fits" with Lundburg? Doesn't it seem that something different has to happen? Maybe its "good" different, but I can't see the aggrements with Ovation as previously outlined still honored in its current form with this acquisition. bp
You are right about that. Its just that the omission of any reference to Ovations ties to GTCB seems glaring and I am perplexed. bp
I am not bashing, I seek clarification. Can you show me in any of the Lundburg PR any mention of Ovation's relationship with GTCB? Or perhaps some commonality of purpose in the long term strategic goals of GTCB and Lundburg? Can propose any possible reason for Lundburg to continue a long term relationship with GTCB given their commitment to a program of CNS pharmaceuticals? Well? bp
Does anybody besides me feel like we just got thrown under the bus? (Again). Leo drops us, Ovation drops us. Nothing in the Lundbeck PR speaks of anything but CNS strengths of Ovation and Lundbeck strategy of a CNS portfolio. Our lifeline is LFB, and LFB only, apparently at 31 cents. Tom, Geoff, Harry its time to come clean and talk to us your long suffering shareholders. Its enough already. bp
Bill Gates just released mosquitoes into the audience of of a conference to make a point about malaria. Is it coincidence that the first transgenic protein is on the eve of approval in the US and the our goats can make a malaria vaccine that was mentioned during the recent expert panel review??? As to today's drop, whoever did it will find himself too clever by half methinks. Regards to all. With anticipation, bp
Rustyboy, good to hear from you after this hiatus. Thanks for the update. I have tried to follow Gates foundation funding for a clue for the past year and have found nothing other than what I think is a logical connection between a computer innovator with a love for the extraordinary and the potential for Gates recognition of GTCBs technology. I agree with you and JL that approval means a high likelihood of a new partnership and am betting on it. Re plasma-- screening for AIDS, hepatitis, malaria (!) Chagas disease and so on is required to provide for safety. If cost were not an issue I think transgenic Atryn would be safer. Other potential areas not addressed by Jesse is so called "pump brain" which still occurs with adequate heparinization and as far as I know is yet unanswered as to whether ATIII will be better. Regards, bp
Can we go back to malaria for a minute? What exactly did Dick Scotland say and in what context? Thanks in advance. bp