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As one who has owned PPHM for a long time, it comes as no surprise that the share price bears little relationship to the progress Peregrine is making toward commercial success.
Peregrine has taken an obscure find from Dr. Thorpe's lab and built solid evidence that it can be a signicant treatment for the most common forms of cancer. Not only have they built evidence, they are months away from data in a pivotal, Phase III trial. By the way this trial was constructed in close collaboration with the FDA.
Also, Peregrine is making solid progress proving Bavi can amplify the results of big pharmas latest, greatest immune-oncology drugs.
Add the fact that little Avid continues to grow revenue at a healthy pace.
So, what does the share price do? Wanders around closer to $1 than $2. Some like to spin reasons why this makes sense. I don't buy their flimsy arguments, I buy PPHM shares.
IMO Bavi will soon prove it is a more valuable drug than the multi-billion dollar Avastin. When it does, nobody will care how many share are authorized, how much the BOD is paid, or who gets how many cheap options.
Some day, I hope soon, the share price will catch up with the reality.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
corporalagarn, you are amusing.
Peregrine said they expected to unblind Sunrise in 2016. How does that relate to the second look-in expectation in mid 2016?
One thing that stood out for me in the CC was the detailed studies Peregrine is doing on the Bavi trial patients to zoom in on patients most likely to benefit from Bavi. This dovetails well with the current mantra of tailoring treatments to specific patients.
Why give expensive treatments to patients that are unlikely to work? I know the insurance companies will be pushing this to save money. Peregrine is wise to focus on this aspect so early in the game.
GLTA, Especially The Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
The CC was very upbeat. Steve and the others clearly see a great future for Peregrine.
I know some will find something to dislike, but I liked the focus on the future of Bavituximab. Management continues to follow a plan to convince the pharma world that Bavi belongs as a major new addition to the cancer treatment arsenal.
Employing MSK as your product's validator is very smart IMO. If MSK gives Bavi their approval, who is going to doubt Bavi's value?
If AstraZeneca starts cozing up to Peregrine, don't you think others will start moving closer as well?
As King and other pointed out, Bavi is an ideal partner. It has proven safe, and it is gradually proving that it makes many other drugs more effective.
If the share price does the usual dip, it will be hard to resist adding.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
OK, I was wrong again. I guestimated the 1st Sunrise look-in would be in mid-October. Looks like I was off about three or four months.
What I conclude from this is first, the early enrollment was slower than I hoped and second, the patients are probably healthier than they were in the virtually identical Phase II trial.
I appreciate Steve King offering the guidance on this.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Completely understandable that a long term investor would be worn out waiting for a Peregrine pay day. Big however, the pay day is in sight. Not years away like so many promising alternatives.
Sunrise Phase III results are expected in the next few weeks to few months. We have strong reasons to believe they will be outstanding. If Sunrise does come through, it can take the share price to the level we greedy investors have expected for a long time.
This is not the time to bail.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Hypi, gambling that nothing significant will happen in six months could be expensive. Three years ago Peregrine almost inked a partnership, and no one knew about until it came out during the discovery process in the CSM law suit much later.
With MSK and Astrazeneca working with Peregrine and a Phase III trial nearing complete enrolment, Peregrine is a much more attractive partner than it was in 2012. So, something big could happen at any time.
We'll see.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
PPHMownsME, I am very bullish, because I rate this management team and stock from the decision point years ago when the company bet the ranch on Bavituximab.
From that point on there have false starts, slips and falls. However, the trajectory was generally heading up. IMO since the Fargo flap, which I can only consider bad luck, the Bavi science in the labs and clinics has been very good.
As we are now in Bavi Phase III in an indication that Bavi has already shown solid success, I am very optimistic regarding Peregrine's future.
Not only can we expect success in NSCLC, but we can also be positive on Bavi in breast cancer.
Add the dimension of Bavi with the new immunotherapies and I can see Peregrine shares reaching $5-10 by the end of 2016. As my cost average is around 1.30, that would make me very happy.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Rev_mon, thanks for the limited clarification. By "the market" I suppose you mean the daytraders who buy thousands of shares and enjoy 10 cent a share profits. If you can pull it off several times a year, you can probably make those lease payments on that fancy automobile.
Personally, I think we will soon leave this bargain basement price range in which these guys trade.
I think this because IMO the "larger market" will see more profits to be made holding Peregrine for a few months to a few years rather than trading it over the course of a few days. Peregrine is truly closing in on Bavi commercialization and all that might mean to the SP.
We'll soon see.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Everyone who enjoyed watching the share price surge before the data came out from the 2nd Line NSCLC Phase II trial can be forgiven for a sense of deja vu.
Maybe we will see another SP surge in the months before the virtually identical NSCLC Phase III trial Sunrise reports data. I could live with that.
I am not a SP pumper, just an enthusiastic SP owner.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Rev-mon,
Hypi, your prediction of the Sunrise 2nd look-in is about four months after mine.
Your assumption that the first look-in won't move the share price may be right or it may be wrong.
Your assumption that the share price won't move before Sunrise data comes out assumes no other significant clinical data or partnering announcement will come out.
Your assumption that the share price will not move until Sunrise trial data is released is inconsistent with the share price movement before the release of the virtually identical Phase II study.
In other words your predictions are based on assumptions that are iffy at best.
We'll see. Probably sooner than you think.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients.
Paul
Couch, nobody knows when PPHM may start to move.
What we do know from 2012 is that the run up can occur before trial data is available. We also know from 2012 that the share price can move up very, very quickly.
No need to buy into the "dead money" theorist. When PPHM starts to move, there will be no doubt whose money is dead.
GLTA, Especially the Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
If, as many expect, the Sunrise trial produces data similar to the virtually identical Phase II trial, what then? How does Peregrine management proceed? The assumption at that point would be fairly rapid FDA approval.
Based on what they have said for years, management would seek to partner ex-US and retain US rights. The obvious two questions:
Who would be an ideal ex-US partner?
How would they go forward in the US? Is there a likely partner who could handle sales and distribution in the US?
The struggle to get to this point has been rough, but once Peregrine turns this corner the real fun will begin. I am very ready to enter this next phase.
GLTA, Especially the Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
So, Peregrine has hooked up with MSK and AstraZeneca in the last few weeks. I wonder if they have any more surprises for us this week. Data from the bavi-yervoy study would be nice.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Are huge profits coming to those daring enough to buy PPHM at this stage? Don't know, but do know:
Pivotal Phase III Sunrise trial four months from 'on track' full enrollment.
A few weeks to a few months till first interim look-in at "gold standard" double-blind Sunrise trial.
Peregrine continues moving FDA fast-tracked Bavituximab forward with zero debt and 100% ownership of anti-PS platform.
Collaborations with AstraZeneca and Memorial Sloan Kettering just announced.
We'll soon see how this goes. Exciting, isn't it?
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
bdandu, the SP sucks. The reasons for this are debatable. The reasons given by the realist-type posters are generally unconvincing. You know the "bavi is a placebo" type reason. Or the BOD probably turned down really attractive partnering deals, even though there is no reason to think such deal ever were presented to Peregrine.
We longs, if I may speak for longs, expect Bavi to succeed and for the debate regarding the reasons for the lousy share price to be soon forgotten.
By the way my soon is a few weeks to a few months, not years.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
jj1223, the 'GLTA' is good luck to all, which of course includes all cancer patients. I particularly wish good luck to the Bavi-arm patients for obvious reasons.
Paul
First Sunrise look-in is coming. How soon? Opinions vary. I guestimate the 33% event threshold could be met my the end of September. If the early enrollment was very slow or the patients very healthy, we might have to wait longer. No way to know.
If my guess is correct, we still might not get much info out of the Data Monitoring folks. Peregrine management did not respond to my request for guidance on what we could expect. No shock there.
Uber optimists are hoping for clear evidence of survival extension in the Bavi patient. This could trigger an early trial ending for humanitarian reasons. Long shot probably, but possible. If it did, those who kept their "dead money" in their money markets will feel pretty dumb.
Whatever else is going on at Peregrine, BOD compensation or share authorizing, it is Sunrise data that will tell us if we make big money in the next few months or not.
Exciting.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Not so fast, Very.
IFU, as long as the BOD and Peregrine management continue pushing Bavi toward commercial success and make me a pile of money, I don't care what amazing shareholder proposals go nowhere.
Call me greedy.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
As a professional computer programmer, I think I know something about logic. Your points are not based on logic. They are not irrational, just not based on logic.
Probably a waste of time but let's have a look at your points.
1. The expectation of success was not based on lack news. It was based on lack of an announcement which we were told to expect once the data was in. In fact when the data came in, there was an announcement, and the share price exploded upward.
2. Your 'logic' suggests that drug companies should not undertake trials unless they know they will succeed. To be fair, unlike some posters here, you may be assuming Peregrine knew at the time how the body responds to immune therapy. It was not known at the time. That is why they do clinical trials. To learn these things.
3. The pivotal, Phase III trial is much larger than the Phase II, but the trial design is virtually identical, and your memory is faulty Rob Garnick stated the results of the Phase II, even after data reconstitution, were statistically significant.
So, you can continue to make reference to the results of the irrelevant pancreatic trial. Or you can enjoy the wait as Bavi increases the survival time of these desperately sick patients.
Every day without an announcement means patients are living longer with Bavi. If that means we shareholders will make a lot of money, I suppose that is just logical.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients.
Paul
Verylong, repeatedly holding up the pancreatic trial as a model for what to expect in the in the Phase III Sunrise trial is misleading for two simple, but powerful reasons.
First, pancreatic and lung cancer are very different diseases. As anyone who follows the immunotherapy story knows, these therapies are only effective if the body has time to respond to them. Regrettably, pancreatic cancer kills so swiftly the immune system never has a chance to benefit from Bavi and other such approaches.
Second, Sunrise is a Phase III trial almost identical in design to the previous Phase II trial. So, the experience we had in that trial led us to believe Bavi was extending survival time. In fact despite the CSM screw up, Bavi clearly did extend survival time as we expected.
So, those of us who followed the Phase II trial's progress and data reconstitution, have every reason to expect a similar level of survival extension in the Bavi arm.
I hope you will spare us any further references to the clearly irrelevant pancreatic trial. I know fat chance.
GLTA, Especially Those Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Revenue_monster, Sunrise will make us rich. Or, Sunrise will make us poor.
The additional authorized shares will not be needed to dilute ownership if Sunrise generates great data attracting partners or a buyer.
If the Sunrise data does not attract partners or a buyer, the zillions of authorized shares will sell for pennies to some very daring speculators. Those of us who have owned PPHM shares for years will be long gone.
As it has been for years, the future of Peregrine depends entirely on Bavi. The future of Bavi depends almost entirely on the Sunrise trial.
Very simple, very scary.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Compensation of board. Non-issue.
Authorized shares. Non-issue.
Dead money assertion. Non-issue.
Everything other than Sunrise data. Non-issue.
See how simple this is?
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Hi Bidrite, as I have owned PPHM shares for many years, I do indeed understand dilution of my ownership. Perhaps foolishly, I have continued to add over the years, so I have somewhat maintained my miniscule ownership percentage.
What I tried to point out is the all important Sunrise results will be in long before any significant dilution will occur from the newly authorizes share. So, for all practical purposes, the add'l shares are of little importance.
If Sunrise succeeds, Peregrine has a chance to make us tons of money. If it fails, you don't want to be holding any PPHM shares, old or just printed.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Lets see what is more likely to effect Peregrine's future. Pivotal, Phase III Sunrise results or the number of authorized, but not issued shares?
Oh, it must be the unissued shares. They are probably as important as the compensation of the BOD. Or any of the other non-Sunrise topics doted on here.
I have harped on this for months or is it years. Sunrise is the single most important subject regarding Peregrine's success or failure.
Now that we are approaching the early look-ins, perhaps within weeks, I'm amazed how much attention here goes to other topics. It seems to me that some here can't or won't face the truth. Sunrise will make or break Peregrine and our fortunes in the next few weeks to months. Scary? Yes, but very, very exciting.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
The "US against the BOD" line is even more tiresome than the "dead money" argument. If only life was so simple.
I expect Peregrine will produce killer survival data, neat phrase huh, from the Sunrise trial. BPs will offer substantial partnering deals or outright buyouts in their own interest whether they like our BOD or not. Then, we will congratulate the BOD for their outstanding fiduciary duty, and our "dead money" will somehow return to life.
It all depends on the data, and what it means to the people with billions to invest in a significant addition to the treatment of multiple cancers. Oh, and that data will be here in the next few weeks to months. Is that soon enough?
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
King and company have taken us this far. Well done. However, as the company moves from essentially a research institute to a commercial drug provider, is it time for a change?
Maybe the question shows a lack of gratitude, but does Peregrine need leadership with different skills and experience for the challenges ahead?
I wonder.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Bungler, agreed FDA approval of Bavi would be huge. However, in my view the only game changer the market will respect is one with dollar signs attached. I expect Peregrine news with dollar signs will occur before the FDA can respond to great Sunrise numbers.
So, I see the game changing by the end of the Q1 calendar 2016, if not sooner. The dead money people are dead wrong.
GLTA, Especially the Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Disconnect. That is the word for Peregrine and its share price. While Peregrine is making progress in the pivotal, Phase III Sunrise trial, advancing research in Bavi with MSK, and "partnering" with AstraZeneca, the share price sinks. That is some disconnect.
The good thing about disconnects is that the world hates them. Sooner or later, we hope sooner, the disconnect will be resolved when the share price comes back into connection with Peregrine's reality.
I know this won't happen until the market sees the money. There are several ways this can happen. Lucrative partnerships, buyout, growing distribution network of an approved Bavi.
Who knows when this will happen. Only the last possibility is clearly months away.
GLTA, Especially Bavii-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
geocappy1, I agree entirely that Peregrine is moving strongly toward Bavi commercialization.
Too bad the folks who make their living trading PPHM seem to push the share price down regularly. Even when the news is consistently good.
Oh well. If we are right about Bavi, when our day comes it will be sweet.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
For those who say preclinical means nothing. I think the fact that
AstraZeneca has gone public on its budding relationship with Peregrine disproves the notion.
Yes, the share price has gone nowhere today, but guess what some tomorrow the budding romance with Astra could hatch an actual partnership. This could really move the share price, and it all began with preclinical work.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
While Peregrine and AstraZ are not partnering yet, just collaborating, it is not a bad sign that AstraZ publicly refered to Peregrine as a partner. I like the sound of that.
Peregrine credibility in the pharma world continues to rise.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
CP, Hutchins works the pre-clinical effort for Peregrine. So, I don't expect him to say anything about Sunrise or other clinical matters.
However, he probably has some new pre-clinical studies data that promise more interest in Bavi among potential partners.
We'll see.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Verylong, your are verywrong. Confirmation of Bavi effectiveness will come much sooner than a year. It will come in the pivotal Phase III Sunrise trial. It will come somewhere between the first look-in, mid-October by my estimate, and the second look-in, mid-March by my estimate.
I expect Sunrise results that will move the FDA to approve. I could be wrong, but I do expect these data much sooner than a year.
Are you still selling the dead money hypothesis? I suspect the no longer dead money period will be on us in weeks to months, not a year.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Share price movement. As long as Peregrine management keeps pushing Bavi as hard as possible, I don't think we need to obsess about the share price.
If AstraZeneca and Memorial Sloan Kettering think Bavi is worth pursuing, how credible are the opinions of the doubters?
Bavi is not a cancer cure. However, it does make many other cancer treatments more effective with practically zero side affects.
If we read this correctly, the Bavi story is just getting started. Despite all the negative vibes endlessly repeated here, we stand to make a very big profit. Soon would be nice.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Sunstar, AstraZeneca is just one more player who has evaluated the science on Bavituximab. Apparently they like what they see. Apparently, they have no qualms dealing with Peregrine. Gee haven't they looked at the self-serving Peregrine BOD and management?
In other words Peregrine is creeping up on major success. I guess the market hasn't noticed. Yet.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Sunrise enrollment guess. Assuming at most 120 still to enroll, then about 480 patients are in the trial. That's 240 patients around the world with Bavi in their bloodstreams.
I'm sure we all wish them well.
My additional guess is we will see a first look-in in mid-October. Can't say what Peregrine will be in a position to share with us. Hope it's more than enrollment continues on track and no unexpected adverse reactions reported. That would be bad news for the share price IMO. Dearly hope they can throw us some kind of bone.
GTLA, Paul
Peregrine management's stubbornness might make its taken-for-granted shareholders rich. Doesn't look like it now, but this could change in the next few weeks/months.
They have stubbornly pushed Bavi in the labs, in the clinics, in the seminars, etc. They just keep pushing it forward. Anyone who disputes this is not paying attention. Despite the CSM screw up, management stubbornly refused defeat, resurrected the data and convinced the FDA to green light the pivotal, Phase III Sunrise trial. A virtuoso performance. An amazing achievement. Stubbornness can be a great virtue.
They stubbornly refuse to loosen their grasp on the IP pipeline. No sharing with a partner, no sharing with a lender, no sharing with anybody. Many not happy with this approach. Still stubbornly refusing to sell the IP cheaply despite the prospect of ATM dilution. Management has reached this late stage with the IP ownership intact. If the anti-PS platform and Bavi are as valuable as they think, all the painful dilution over recent years may be well rewarded by Bavi commercialization.
They stubbornly keep pushing Avid to grow and make more revenue, despite their obvious focus on Bavi. While not the money machine we would all like, Avid does continue to grow at a respectable rate.
While Peregrine's stubborn failure to share information we shareholders crave is frustrating, clearly their stubbornness is pushing the company toward a potential big winner in Bavi commercialization.
We'll see. Soon, weeks to months, not years.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul