Contemplating my business/loan disasters of last year.1@
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I too think it seems to be a little dangerous, it almost seems as if it wants to go a bit lower, like 2.9 and then bounce? Don't know why they're taking the stock to these ungodly levels... but this is why even if I do get in, I'm only buying in 25k shares... will buy the rest if it falls or shoots up.
Been monitoring the trading, whoever it is, is very closely trading on RSI... When it gets to overbought, they sell hard, when it gets to oversold, they buy... Set your RSI to about 7 interval, you'll see.. like clockwork..
Basically it is being traded right now...
I think it is holding at $3 pretty well... it did dip to $2.97 but, quickly went back up... someone is trying to acquire cheap shares maybe?... I'm going to get back in tomorrow, so we'll see... but if it breaks $3 again, I might hold off until I get more answers. Right now it seems like the market is viewing this company as a penny stock.
Something is rotten in Denmark man... Is this manipulation? What is f'ing going on here? 16 million volume so far... I'm at the airport right now pissed off at the stupid direction this stock is going.
I never heard this, and if it was true, Zynga's stock price would be much higher from this already...
Zynga has 3000 employees, most of whom don't do jack shit, on projects that are going nowhere. Zynga management is awful, they basically mistreat the employees that are actually making them money...
Mark pincus needs to be fired.. I'm sorry, but I hate that guy and his stupid direction. I am working with a much much lower budget and running a company of 15 people much more successfully than that idiot. He got lucky having the first mover advantage and having zero ethics, but he needs to wise up fast and start delivering. I don't want to see the stock at sub $3.. that would be dreadful.
I know hotrod, I was under the impression they would be trading a lot higher at the end of the year, but now I don't think so... Q3 and Q4 isn't predicted to be good anymore.. I fear that even though the "ville" is doing well in terms of numbers, I don't think it is monetizing much at all... This is just a heap of bad decisions that are plaguing zynga right now, they spent 2 years and north of 10 mil on that game.
I'm still going to take a position in this tomorrow... but I'll probably buy 25k shares or so, to test the waters. Sorry, I wish I had better news, but the bad earnings just confirmed my fears. Pinkass needs to be thrown out of the company, for the good of all of us. He's an absolute piece of shit.
ZNGA is not getting delisted, the crackpots come out of the woodwork when the stock price plummets... That's what they do, don't know what they gain out of it.
I actually believe $3 is bottom, but I'm hoping that is true ... As for right now, you're a long whether you like it or not. It makes zero sense to sell and more than likely it'll head back up... just have to start trading it if it does head to $4.. sell half or so... or you can let it ride past the year. I do think next year this is going to be at $5+... It is a far cry from what I thought about this company before, but it is what it is.
I'm really sorry J12.. I wish you had sold... I was urging pretty much everyone to sell at least 50% because I was worried about bad earnings... I don't think anyone listened to me... I don't think any of us saw it going this low...
Right now I think we hover between $3 and $4 till the end of the year, unless something drastic happens. I do think next year Q1 we should see a rise...
You've come this far down, I don't think selling makes sense. But I won't sugar coat it, right now I'm not sure it is way undervalued anymore. Zynga might be on the verge of losing out on its market share. I'm pretty much going to be trying to find out news on a daily basis and I'll report it here when I find out anything new.
Hey,
I'm completely out, but only due to a tax issue. I will say that I'm somewhat apprehensive about getting back in right now for 4 reasons:
1) The current employees will get to sell again soon, I believe 1st of August.
2) 150 million shares coming out of lockup August 16th.
3) I'm not sure if Zynga is at war with FB since DAU is declining on other titles.
4) I'm not sure if Zynga is worried about not being #1 anymore.
There's a good possibility none of them will sell down here at this level, but who knows really? But about the other two things?
That being said, I'm not really a trader, so I don't want to get in just to flip for a few cents to a dime.. maybe I might consider it, but it is a lot of money to risk.
I do still want to get back in, but not my full position.
I'm never residing in the US, haven't done it this year, don't plan on ever coming back to the US, I'm Canadian and that won't change.
But yeah, I don't see too much downside here, the only problem is, if there is a down tick below $2.9.. then I'd be really worried.
I have worked extensively at both EA and Zynga. Your points are somewhat valid, and somewhat invalid.
We'll have to see where Zynga goes in relation to their partnership with facebook. If that goes sour, then Zynga will have to compete with the Titans of gaming and they will probably lose. But right now they have a partnership.
"Just recently, Facebook decided to change the way we view the games/apps in their application. No longer do I see Farmville or any of the others anywhere remotely close to my homepage. In fact as I write this article, I took a quick peek at my page—there are a few recent apps and games I have used, but no longer do I see Farmville and Fishville. "
This actually makes a lot of sense why we're still down here... It very much sounds like they turned off virality for Zynga. When I used to work there, every time facebook made a change, our DAU was threatened. I'm not sure what's happening here but does seem a bit like facebook might be unhappy with Zynga and basically strong arming them to comply with a specific direction... I'm just guessing on internal politics here...
Both companies need to play it safe here because if either company announces "We just broke up" the stock price will plummet in Zynga's case... FB would go down a fair bit too (probably to $18)..
I don't think FB will buy out Zynga, mostly because Pinkass is fucking things up greatly and it is also really hard to manage 3000 employees (many of whom don't really work anymore.. they just party).
Think about the stock price and its effect on Zynga employees. Believe me, if you tell me I'm getting X shares and then the value of that drops 50%, I'm no longer going to stay being a happy worker bee at the company. I will be looking elsewhere. My guess is unless Zynga is planning on offering the employees more stock, I presume resignation letters are being prepared. With all of these problems, I see there being some more downside a the moment.
If Pinkass wasn't at helm and let's say I was running the company, I would:
1) Keep all the games that were currently making boat loads of money and reduce the staff on them to about 15 - 20 people on each game team max.
2) Keep a core team of the best guys to do the next set of titles (mid core titles), ville is dying, they need to focus on mid core.
3) Pursue the Casino games. Put a team of 30 - 40 guys on just those games.
4) Have a team of about 30 people handling the mobile platform and building that out really well.
5) Fire most of the exec staff, they're bloody useless.
All of the above I've stated can be done with a company of about 200 employees. This is a far cry from the 3000 employees they currently have.
If all of the above happened, I'd say the stock would be on its way to much higher prices, but pinkass isn't doing that. It seems like he's struggling with the decision of what to do. His past track record of running companies have always fallen short after a certain point. It is almost as if his incompetence greatly increases as the company is faced with drastic change.
A CEO is much like the president of America... We need a Ron Paul here, not an Obama.
Company would be in the process of getting delisted at under $1 from nasdaq, but then it could still trade on the pinksheets or OTCBB.
What would happen to our stock? Well other than the value loss, I don't think much else..
You have any reasons to share? It might be more beneficial to cite reasons rather than just saying "more downside coming. Soon to be Q or delisted. This ticker isn't doing any good."
Share your views and points please.
I'm not going anywhere, I'm out of the stock, only for the moment while I reach Canada. But every chance I get to be online, I'll answer questions and of course, anytime I hear anything important I'll share with you guys.
Yep, the IRS takes your money first and asks questions later. You will have to sue for your money back.
Basically if you are a foreigner and your money is in the US, it is NOT safe. It is like Nazi Germany all over again.
All tax lawyers are now advising their foreign clients to take their money out. And also advising US citizens living abroad to renounce their citizenship.
You're absolutely right, and I know a ton of the developers on Zynga poker, they suck. Most likely they will have to buy out an established poker tech company and then recode the backend to include their analytics and cloud stuff..
While I don't see this going too much lower, I actually think something more serious than just earnings is what has come to light here. I just hope the relationship between Zynga and FB is still intact, can anyone in the know confirm this? Because while the DAU is higher because of The Ville, I'm seeing DAU drop for other things, at this rate I think DAU is going to drop significantly over the next month.
What does this mean? Well, if DAU continues to drop, it may become possible that Zynga might not be top dog soon, and if it isn't top dog, then stock price will fall further. If FB and Zynga's relationship is soured, short term, price will fall.
Good news is, book value is 1.3 billion I think, so about $1.5 per share? so we're close to that point, not much down side from here. Their mobile platform will be key, it needs to make it.
This all being said, I don't know if we'll go to $5 - $6 by the end of this year. I think we may go to $4.. but Q1 of next year might be when the mobile platform gets finished, and of course legalized gambling and all could come to fruition by then.
Another thing that scares me is, Zynga's earnings was largely ad based revenue. I was surprised at that, does this mean that zynga's monetization from games have significantly dropped?... Please anyone with some time, call up the company and ask these questions.
Ah, you're here... Well as much as I detest your presence on this board, you were right about the falling under $3... call it crackpot coincidence? Either way... I think this is temporary...
For those interested in knowing about FATCA, here it is.. extremely scary stuff to non-US people.. scary for US people since we won't be doing business with you anymore (sorry).
http://www.pwc.com/us/en/asset-management/investment-management/publications/assets/FATCA-faqs.pdf
The entire market seems to be disliking and distrusting social media. Look at GLUU, they reported high earnings yesterday, positive growth.. all of that. They fell nevertheless. Looks like the motto is, sell on news, regardless of what it is.
landing in Canada Monday night.. Tuesday morning I'm going to be in the brokerage office setting up my account... I do feel like a huge weight has been lifted off of me now that I have no funds in the US.. *phew*.
The US just lost me and I'm sure over the past few months they've lost a ton more people. I know several accountants are now advising their foreign clients to remove their money out of the US asap. Also, if you are a foreigner, do not ever trade using any institution that disperses their funds in the US, like Interactive Brokers. I asked IB about 30% withholding and they said they do it automatically for people who aren't US citizens now.
Who came up with these idiotic laws and rules? It boggles the mind how stupid the US govt is that they think they can look foreign investment dead in the eye and say "There is no advantage to you trading stocks here in the US vs outside the US... but if you do it in the US, we will take 30% of any gains". And actually what they did was much worse, they said that anyone that does BUSINESS with a US citizen, anywhere in the world, is subject to 30% withholding!!!!
So they're basically making it so that doing business with you guys is a detriment. The US is going to hell.
I just hope Canada never complies with the US on this, if it does, sadly I'll leave Canada too.
"What are the withholding requirements under FATCA?
In general, a withholding agent is required to withhold 30% on a withholdable payment made to a foreign financial institution (FFI) or to a non-financial foreign entity (NFFE), unless the FFI or NFFE meets certain requirements. In addition, an FFI must withhold 30% on any passthru payment it makes to a recalcitrant account holder, as well as any passthru payment it makes to another FFI unless that FFI meets certain requirements."
Well, I had to get out of the stock yesterday.
Not because of the stock, the stock is a dream at these prices, but because of the damn US govt and this new tax law called FATCA.
I feel so miserable because Zynga is totally going to go back up and I can't enjoy it until I get to buy the shares back in Canada (flying out end of the month)... For my selfish reasons I hope I can buy Zynga in the 3's .. but maybe it shoots up.
FATCA btw is another reason US is going to hell. I'm not a US citizen, I have nothing to do with the US anymore, but, because I had my money in a US brokerage and if I was supposedly making money on US stocks (aka Zynga) I would have a 30% witholding on my gains. How f'ed up is that? I'm not living in the damn country, I'm not a US citizen or resident, why would I be subject to any tax. And this law was supposed to go into effect 2014, but IRS is imposing this on people right now. I didn't have to pay any witholding since I lost a ton of money on Zynga already
F*** the IRS. So I moved all my money to Canada. And will be anxiously looking to buy back in once my brokerage account is setup (once I fly into vancouver)...
So, we'll see, for now I'm out of the stock. but basically I have a strong feeling I'm going to miss the boat and am really upset about it.
Not true... There are 3 classes of shares of Zynga, Pincus still has a boat load of shares of Class B. Class B shares have 7 to 1 voting power, Class C have 70 to 1 voting power and Class A is 1 to 1 (this is what you have).
Class B is convertible to class A. He has like 72 million class B, it is a 1 to 1 share conversion and you can't convert it back. So basically he can convert his B shares anytime, but then he loses voting power. He doesn't need the money right now, so he hasn't converted. The scumbag sold his first batch that he converted and now is sitting pretty with a ton of money.
He owns 50% of the voting power because he owns all of the class C shares of the company. 1 class C share has 70 to 1 voting power. And I think there's a total of 20 million class C shares and he issued himself all of it.
"Pincus owns 74,085,846 Class B shares, 14.6% of the total, and 20,517,472 of the
Class C shares, which represents 100% of that class. "
Read more: Reminder: Shareholders Do Not Own Zynga — or Facebook - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2012/07/26/reminder-shareholders-do-not-own-zynga-or-facebook/#ixzz21pdCW11P
Well, I'm suing Zynga already, the lawsuit will go out soon to them, but it is not for a big amount. In the case of a class action (seriously, you wouldn't want this to happen as a shareholder) against Zynga, the company would basically be liquidated if they lose. they're worth about 1.3 billion right now in cash+assets and common stock shareholders would be paid LAST for all their losses.
We do NOT want a lawsuit of that magnitude. I understand it could be a case of ambulance chasing, but I was tempted to call them, I have losses of over $100k on this stock.. and if I wasn't already suing them, I would have called them.
I repeat, as a shareholder, you would NOT want a class action, us shareholders will maximum get $1 per share as a settlement, or worse, nothing..
Remember, Pincus has those class C shares. Even though he committed the fraud, he could pay himself for stock damages as well. Then in that case, he gets paid out first.
Lots of bad things can happen here if a lawsuit does happen.
To put things into perspective. 471 million shares in the float right now... Multiply that by $5 - $10 to see what type of damages a class action would sue for. And then ask yourself what amount Zynga can even pay and would the business go to shit at that point? Of course it would.
Okay, this investigation looks pretty serious. What would be bad is if there was a big lawsuit against zynga from all shareholders. If that happens, the stock price will plummet because their $1b in bank will disappear or more.
hmm... good point, there should be a filing right?.. Can someone confirm this?
All the action today and yesterday after hours is making me think the public thinks Zynga and Facebook are going down together in one big ship. Worse, the stock isn't going to be at bottom if for some reason the news is much worse and Zynga and Facebook are actually going to be at war with each other.
I'm not sure what's going on, hoping it is just profit taking, but *crossing fingers*..
Zynga buying, short covering, day traders trading, few more longs being created.
Yeah, I'd say it could be the highest volume day we've seen yet.
I'd bet anything Zynga bought a ton today.
Oops... I'm at 160k... Let's hope I'm right and have put my money where my mouth is.
Also their assets, with their 300 million office building.
She's been abused though, so she will be a bit feral and have violent mood swings.
Nice buy! I have 110k now. What a gift at these levels. Swing position traders especially will be loading up here too. There's going to be a flurry of buying at market open (to offset the flurry of selling).
I do think high freq traders who know nothing about the company will be buying and selling for 3 cents profit. This may keep us down for a bit, but overall, good chance for it to explode mid day.
FB's earnings shouldn't affect Zynga much since FB gets their revenue from Zynga. If FB shows a reduction of users or user engagement, then yeah, Zynga might fall a tiny bit more. In my opinion, Zynga is at rock bottom right now.
Yep I did. 105k shares bought at an avg price of $3.04.
Pre-market is usually a good indication of how the day is going to go. My guess is, 3.2 ish is where we close EOD at the minimum. My vote is $3.36
Altec,
They have been buying back this whole time. They have to. They chose to feed employees their shares by buying from the float. That's why I think there's something criminal going on here.
It makes me sad to hear the loss you're dealing with. I wish you had sold at least half before earnings, I was hoping most here would have sold, just to not take a chance on this.
It will most certainly bounce back up, but it will wait till Q3 to bounce up to $6. The price right now is artificial I think. One bad quarter and it falls like this? Will have to see how it does when the market opens, but I do think it is artificial here.
I wouldn't sell here. I've been buying back hard here. I know we'll bounce from here.
And FYI, I have 105k shares right now. I don't think we fall below 2.9 today, but if we do, I'll probably double that share holding.
Another thing: Can normal people short after hours?
I didn't think you could, I thought you could only cover after hours.
I think we went down a ton more than we should have, due to margin calls and it being AFTER HOURS. 21,313,420 shares sold after hours, when the volatility is so high. So we went much lower than we rightfully should have. It bounces tomorrow. Then retraces probably and then bounces up again.
That's my prediction tomorrow.
Some thoughts: I'm pretty high right now .. but I am seeing things clearer.
First let me address some posts I disagree with:
By HotRod
"Other Zynga initiatives include gambling games that involve real money. During the call, Mr. Pincus said the company has its first real-money games "in development," adding however that it has "no current plans for the U.S." market. "
The real money online gambling market (outside the US) right now (which is in its infancy) is $15+ billion a year industry.
Zynga Poker, Slots and Bingo are the largest in the world right now.
So putting 2 & 2 together, it is clear that Zynga hitting the RMG market right now would take it out of it's infancy and make Zynga number 1 to eat that share of the $15 billion market.
I also realize why Mark might be choosing his words carefully to give a negative subtle sentiment to the stock.
I think... wait for it.... :
Mark Pincus *wants* the stock low for the following reasons:
1) The way they issue shares to employees is through a buyback of the float.
2) When the stock price is higher, Zynga has to pay more tax to the IRS when they issue that stock to employees. (I don't know why, but fuck the IRS).
So you guys see?? I don't think it is the weed talking, I think keeping the stock low saves the company money at the cost of the shareholders.
So that bastard is fucking over all of the shareholders to save the company money. He doesn't realize he has 2 motives that are so clear now, that he could have an SEC investigation on him.
More things I see in the future? Lawsuits against pincus for stock manipulation. But he did it in such a clever sneaky way, that it would be hard to prove.
Think about it, let's say every month, all shareholders vest a total of 5 million shares. That means they have to be buying back 5 million shares from the market.
Should they pay $25 mil for shares at $5/share? or worse $50 million for shares at $10/share? Or can they just pay $15 million and really don't care about the employees because only the employees with LONG TERM vision (the kind they want to keep) will not really care about the stock and believe in his stupid mission.
It is all so clear. Plus the tax savings is big incentive too..
By WannabeFortune
"definitely, employees whose lock-up expire on aug 16 will sell off now."
No, the people who's lockups are expiring are Pinkass and his close friends, all whom sold at $12.
So they won't be selling over here. I think they're really confident they can take this stock up to $12/share, simply because they know they have a shot at making so much money with what they have. I'm serious.
So they're okay with letting the stock fall, save money from the IRS and let the stock go up again, simply by announcing higher earnings next quarter.
Last thought for you guys: Why didn't Pinkass say anything interesting or sounded like he wasn't worried at all during the webcast? Isn't he the largest shareholder in Zynga? How many more signs do we need?