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"Asked"
For all the common holders here, if you actually want to help FnF contribute to the capital raise you should buy some JPS.
Commons are the same guests that bring nothing to the thanksgiving dinner table.
JPS are bringing food/wine to the table at least, $32B.
The order of the restructuring is important.
The first thing that has to happen before anything else is to take care of the seniors. No one is investing a single penny until that is out of the way.
Result: Massive commons dilution; JPS remains intact.
Senior ~> common conversion has no effect on JPS.
Seniority:
- Seniors get paid first.
- What they get is 99.99% of the company.
"Alternatively, the Treasury could modify the agreementsto make its preferred shares redeemable—either at their face (par) value or for a different amount—as part of the sale of common stock."
They can set it as liquidation value or whatever number they fancy.
Until your neighbor across the street is willing to give you a million dollars with no strings attached... there is no reason for me to believe treasury will grant multi-billion dollars to legacy shareholders.
Cram down is the most likely scenario to happen.
This expectation that the opposing party will be more altruistic than you are... is a dream that will forever remain a dream.
All legal theories are dead, including the major cocopuff doctrine along with the others espoused on this board.
This is 100% going to be an administrative resolution.
Until the plan of allocation is submitted, appealing is not allowed.
After submission, appealing is allowed. This could very well drag on for another 12 months easily.
But he's your messiah now since he's on team RELEASE.
Dave Stevens has been turning the corner (hinting at it) since earlier this year... but now he is being explicit about it. I believe we should expect to see some fireworks in the next 4-6 months.
Taxing unrealized gains makes zero sense... Are people going to record unrealized losses as well?
The old adage of never counting your chickens until they hatch...
Makes for incredibly difficult accounting.
Even if they got the green light, they'd still get voted out of office.
The situation is akin to a man highly in debt.
When he has no means to pay, what happens? They take him, harvest his organs and sell every piece of him to get as much back as possible.
In the case of FnF, all there is left to take is equity. Unfortunately, every ounce of legacy commons' blood will get squeezed out.
As with every company going through a restructuring... in all cases the debt/liabilities far exceed their net worth.
The seniors will take a "haircut" by taking 99.9999% of all common equity.
In other words, all of your commons got nothing?
I'm much more heavily invested in this than your position. I have no qualms with holding this for another decade. I've already moved on emotionally elsewhere. It's just an old habit that I check this board sometimes.
Money aside... it's not worth the emotional investment.
You should close your FnF position.
Is that seashell #2?
Distribution of capital is allowed after conservatorship release.
You're mistaken...
If a lawyer and their client loses, they get paid only expenses and fees.
If a lawyer and their client wins, the attorney will get about 30~ percent of the entire settlement. That is where the money from big law comes from and is also the incentive to WIN.
People will line up to buy. After the dilution, even I'm willing to buy commons at that point. But before the dilution... NO.
Every time without fail, whenever along4zride initiates his short position, FnF goes GREEN for the next 2-3 days.
5 months is generous... expect at least a year.
No more appeals please... I just want my money...
The most recent FnF earnings, both fannie and freddie already wrote in the Lamberth payout as a loss. Otherwise... their net worth would've been higher this quarter.
You won't see $25 and never will.
Because Fannie owes FNMAT holders $25 per share...
Haven't touched FnF in months but I will resume buying ~$1.50 level.
I hope you're not invested in FNMA/FMCC.
I stand by my view that what will be available on the open market will be slim pickings.
Much more important than making a quick buck, who the new owners of FnF are even more important. Those that own a sufficient quantity of shares will have a board seat and thus have a say in the US housing market.
After SPS conversion and warrants exercise, the US govt will have an intimate say on who actually gets to buy FnF.
Berkowitz "I was naive in believing that the govt would do the right thing."
They got used and burnt... foreshadowing much?
FNMA commons are indeed coals but I guess it can still be used to heat my fireplace in the winter.
JPS got diamond hands, no one selling. Commons have loose hands.
I recall treasury making a low ball offer to JPS for like 50% haircut or something ridiculous like that... Major JPS holders declined.
I see no reason for JPS to accept another low ball offer especially with much improved conditions now.
The CBO report acknowledged that there may be quite a few scenarios where the govt must take a haircut before the JPS does. That implies, there is seniority/security with the juniors.
Honestly the most favorable scenario for me is to actually let all of the JPS remain as is and turn back on the dividends. All this common conversion is second best at most...
You're circling the boards a little more frequently now. I presume the chances of a catalyst occurring are becoming more favorable.
Bless your soul for your generosity of donating 400MM to the commons.
JPS adds 33B to capital while commons on the other hand offer $zero to recapitalization 🥴
LuLeVan, the additional 0.4% of equity in FnF would still a mount to a million or two.
Would you leave a few mil on the table?
I would squeeze them completely dry. My policy is to never expect others to do something that I personally wouldn't do.