Trading the Forex
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an RV has nothing to do with your earlier post of the IQD going on the forex. We're not talking about an RV, we're talking about the forex.
If your post is trying to infer dollar weakness you are totally wrong. Just look at this chart and any other chart you like to look at. If the Euro is getting killed right now by the dollar what do you think would happen to the lowly IQD. If you can't read a Forex chart the candles that are going straight down is dollar strength which is going on on all pairs right now. The IQD would be like Pee Wee Herman going to fight Mike Tyson.
You do know that the IQD would lose it's value don't you?
There is no see, it is a fact and even if your dream of them going on the forex came true do you even know what would happen to the IQD? I do. it would be heavily shorted against the USD
Once again for the forex people on this board who do not know how the forex works. Currencies on the forex do not trade by themselves like how a stock would. Currencies are traded against another currency like a tug o war. Second exotic currencies are not on the forex, no not one. Since currencies are traded against each other meaning what country is stronger then the other. What do you think would happen if it went up against the dollar. The forex does not care how much oil a country has. They care about what is their unemployment, how is the housing market car sales and so on. If the IQD went against the dollar it would get crushed right now. In which would send the IQD to a downward spiral. I trade the forex for a living so I know what I am talking about. The IQD will never go on the forex.
the FEDS have already been called in to help us. we were deemed a natural disaster area on sunday. downtown nashville is still flooded and blocked off.
yeah they are calling for more rain thurs and friday but I don't think it will be much but even 1" is too much right now
yes and no, the rain stopped but for some reason the river has climbed higher. it is going down a foot a day for now though
yeah they say that only 10% or less had flood insurance
The Harpeth River is usually around 6ft deep, Sunday and Monday it was 35 ft deep. The Cumberland river is usually 21ft deep. it was 54 ft deep. Sad thing is that nobody even knows we were flooded due to the terrorist news dominating the airways. This is the first and only flood that has ever happened to TN ever.
I live in Madison which is still part of Nashville
Don't know if you guys have followed what happened to TN over the weekend about the flood but we were devastated by floods. First time in our history this has happened. Sat night there was a freakin house on I-24 with 150 abandoned cars on the highway. My house came within 4 houses of going under water. The flood washed away God knows how many houses away and I mean large houses. So far we have 10 confirmed dead. The whole state of TN is jacked up right now.
DOLLAR: A GREEK DEAL OVER THE WEEKEND?
The sell-off in U.S. equities forced currencies to give up their earlier gains. Stocks fell steeply after Standard & Poor’s slapped a sell rating on Goldman Sachs as the scrutiny of the investment bank intensifies along with fears that the bank could come under a criminal investigation. Although the problems for Goldman are unique to the investment bank, the sheer possibility of the investigation intensifying and the uncertainty about the bank’s outlook has encouraged investors to sell first and analyze risks later. This has been a week filled with downgrades which has caused the S&P 500 to see its steepest weekly slide since January. Aside from the New Zealand dollar, most other major currencies have ended the week flat to negative against the greenback. However the possibility of a big announcement this weekend in regards to an EU/IMF deal has limited the sell-off in the forex market on Friday.
Will the EU and IMF Announce a Deal Over the Weekend?
Throughout this past week, Greece dominated the headlines and dictated price action. At the beginning of the week, equities and currencies were hit by rating agency downgrades of Greek, Portuguese and Spanish debt, raising fears that Greece’s problems have spread. By the end of the week however, the prospect of an official bailout of Greece have caused fears to recede as it looks increasingly likely that the EU and IMF will come to their rescue with a more concrete package. Help has been promised for some time but the German’s unwillingness to provide aid raised concerns about how long it would be before Greece receives money and whether they can survive until then. In order to avoid a default, Greece needs to receive aid by May 19th. In the meantime, there has been a lot of a talk that a deal is in the cards this weekend. However there has been so many delays that we would not be surprised if a deal is not reached and even if it is, the details will be extremely important. If the EU and IMF announce a satisfactory deal by Monday, next week should be positive for risk. If a deal fails to materialize, expect the selling in the forex market to resume. Meanwhile according to the latest CFTC report on positioning in the futures market, as of last Tuesday, short euro positions rose to a record high. This suggests that the risk of a short squeeze is high.
U.S. Growth Slows in Q1, But Manufacturing Activity and Sentiment Improves
The U.S. economy expanded by 3.2 percent in the first quarter due to an acceleration in consumer spending. Unfortunately growth fell short of expectations and has slowed from the previous quarter, offsetting the optimism of the report. The slowdown in expansion verifies the Federal Reserve's concerns that a sustained recovery is all but certain. At the same time, it is undeniable that the U.S. consumer is playing a larger role in the recovery. Personal consumption grew by 3.6 percent, the strongest pace since the first quarter of 2007. Therefore the drag on growth came primarily from a drop in trade activity and a pullback in government spending. Although the GDP Price index rose by 0.9 percent, core prices grew by only 0.6 percent, which indicates that inflation remains muted. Bernanke may be skeptical about the pace of growth but as we have seen by the pickup in consumer confidence and spending, more Americans are beginning to believe that the recovery is sustainable. Manufacturing activity in the Chicago region also expanded by the fastest pace in 5 years. As long as job growth continues and non-farm payrolls remain positive, this sentiment should hold. For the U.S. dollar, the most market moving piece of data next week will be Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. Another month of solid job growth is expected due to census hiring, strong earnings and a general recovery in the U.S. economy. The market currently expects payrolls to rise by 180k, but the focus will be on the dispersion between private and public sector job growth. If the contribution from census hiring is less than job growth in the private sector, it indicates that the labor market is really improving. However if census hiring represents the majority of job growth, traders will be disappointed. Aside from NFPs, service and manufacturing sector PMI are scheduled for release along with pending home sales and factory orders.
EUR/USD: MOODYS TAKE ON GREEK DEBT RATING
For the third trading day in a row, the euro has strengthened against the U.S. dollar. There were no major surprises in this morning’s economic reports with France seeing a small pickup in inflationary pressures and the Eurozone CPI estimate for the month of April matching expectations. When it comes to the euro, the focus remains on Greece. Although there is a good chance that the EU and IMF could announce an updated bailout package with new details this weekend, many unanswered questions remain. For example, rating agency Moody’s said this morning that Greece could face a multi-notch downgrade that could take them to junk levels. Standard & Poor’s have already downgraded Greek debt to junk status but Moody’s and Fitch could be waiting for details of the EU and IMF program to be unveiled before making their announcements. According to Moody’s their decision to downgrade Greece will depend on their political will to implement fiscal adjustment which will be tough because growth is expected to be weak for next few years. Germany on the other hand may continue to talk tough until after the May 9th elections in the North Rhine-Westphalia regions. As a result of these uncertainties, there is a good chance that the European Central Bank will remain dovish next week. It will be difficult for ECB President Trichet to even consider normalizing let alone tightening monetary policy with this type of fiscal uncertainty. The economy of many countries within the Eurozone are improving but providing aid to Greece will require adding more debt to the burdens of nations that may already have deficit levels well in excess of the Eurozone’s limit. In order to bring these levels down, governments will need to implement measures that will lead to slower growth. Meanwhile the Swiss franc is trading higher against the U.S. dollar and euro, partially due to a strong KoF index. Leading indicators rose to the highest level in 2 years as exports rise and the economy continues to recover.
GBP/USD: HUNG PARLIAMENT MAY NOT BE WORST THING
Unlike the euro, the British pound weakened against the U.S. dollar under the weight of risk aversion and softer economic data. However the losses were limited as recent developments show that the outcome of the UK elections looks to be a bit less disastrous than many had feared. The latest round of polling showed that the Tories took a larger lead as they emerged the clear victor of the third and final UK debates. The Tories now lead with 41 percent of the votes, with the Liberal Democrats trailing in second with 32 percent and Labour in dead last with 25 percent of the votes. What has really helped the process is Prime Minster Gordon Brown’s recent gaffe, in which he called one of his constituents a “bigoted woman”. The mistake seems to have secured the party its spot in last place. Even though Conservatives still lack the 10 point lead necessary to secure majority, Nick Clegg, the leader of the Liberal Democrat party, has voiced his openness to forming a coalition government. Therefore, while a hung parliament still looks likely, it may not be the catastrophic event many have feared. Furthermore, Labour coming in third place may be a good thing, since they have emerged as the party least interested in imposing strict austerity measures to bring down the deficit. However, some remain unconvinced; with a Goldman Sachs report showing that they expect that there are “no guarantees” the country will retain its triple-A rating status. Data today showed that the election cycle has weighed on consumer confidence, which fell to a three month low in GFK’s latest report. Next week has Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday and Producer Prices on Friday.
USD/CAD: SHARP LOSSES ON WEAKER DATA
It has been an interesting day for the commodity currencies which have all behaved differently against the U.S. dollar. The Canadian dollar fell sharply on the heels of slower GDP growth and cautionary comments from Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney. The Australian dollar also weakened despite a sharp rise in gold prices and better than expected economic data. The New Zealand dollar was the only commodity currency to strengthen even though building permits fell 0.4 percent in the month of March. The Canadian economy grew by 0.3 percent in February compared to 0.6 percent the previous month. Inflationary pressures were mixed with industrial product prices declining by 0.4 percent and raw material prices rising by 0.8 percent. Bank of Canada Governor Carney said earlier this week nothing is pre-ordained which suggests that the market’s expectations for a June 1 rate hike may be a bit excessive. Carney is worried that the Greek crisis could hurt Canada if “markets respond to Greece’s appetite for debt by making borrowing costs more expensive overall.” However the BoC has plenty of time to assess the market’s reaction to Greece from now to June. Meanwhile, the pickup in new home sales and private sector credit are part of the reasons why many economists expect Australia to raise interest rates next week. The housing market has failed to slow despite aggressive tightening by the central bank who is committed to preventing another asset bubble. If the Reserve Bank raises rates by 25bp on Tuesday, it would be the sixth 25bp rate hike since October. Even after raising rates by 125bp, the RBA have shown no signs of slowing down because compared to the U.S., Australia is running on all cylinders. Their economy has gone from recovery to growth as Chinese and domestic demand fuels exports, house prices and inflation. Since its low in February, the Australian dollar has appreciated more than 8 percent against the U.S. dollar and is hovering near its 20 year high. This week’s interest rate announcement could push the AUD/USD above that level particularly if the central telegraphs further rate hikes.
USD/JPY: BOJ SENDS MIXED SIGNALS
After posting strong rallies in early trading, USD/JPY has since lost track of nearly all of its gains as US stocks end the NY trading session sharply lower. The Bank of Japan gave a rather confounding rate statement today, in which policy makers revised their outlook to the upside and indicated that they were prepared to add more stimulus to the system. The BoJ said that it was “necessary for the bank to make new efforts to contribute to strengthening the foundations for economic growth,” probably in the form of providing more liquidity to private banks. It is very easy to wonder whether or not this latest announcement was in some way engineered by the government because otherwise their remarks looked very optimistic. The BoJ’s Shirakawa even said that he finds that the country “is steadily moving toward the end of deflation,” as the bank forecasts prices to turn positive as soon as next year. The BoJ also added rosier growth projections into today’s report. However, even though they seem more optimistic about deflation, we also saw that core consumer prices dipped for the thirteenth month in today’s report. Still, data for the most part was relatively good, showing that Household Spending rose by the fastest amount in six years thanks to wages increasing for the first time in nearly two years. However, the jobless rate did increase a tad to 5 percent.
USD/JPY: Currency in Play for Next 24 Hours
The currency in play for Monday is USD/JPY. A slew of U.S. economic reports are due for release starting with Personal Income and Spending as well as PCE at 12:30GMT or 8:30AM EST. Shortly after, Construction Spending and Manufacturing ISM will be released at 14:00GMT or 10:00AM EST. USD/JPY has been gaining over the course of this month. Although the currency pair currently trades within the Buy Zone which we determine using Bollinger Bands, it is on the verge of falling into the Range Trading Zone after Friday’s sharp reversal. If the pair breaks below Thursday’s low of 93.86, it could fall to 92.90 which is a lower bound first standard deviation support level. Conversely, if the pair manages to remain within the Buy Zone, resistance is at 94.7, this year’s high.
I should of held my AU short, watch her go to 92 or lower imo
yeah when you read their pr's they are nothing short of a big joke.
I love the color black lol
I just exited for 30 pips so it's all good
AU kaboom
AU DROP BABY DROP, DROP IT LIKE IT'S HOT
don't know what that article ever being posted here has anything to do with how they still dumped billions of shares on shareholders all the while lying like a dog
lolol I didn't see them mention about dilution one time in that article. GLCC has been screaming short sellers all the while dumping billions on shareholders posting fraudulent pr's.
wow no wonder you fell on the floor. that was one of the dumbest previews I have ever seen.
good friday morning
U.S. Growth Slows in Q1, But Impact on USD Minimal
The U.S. economy expanded by 3.2 percent in the first quarter thanks to an acceleration in consumer spending. Unfortunately growth fell short of expectations and has slowed from the previous quarter, eliminating any dollar positive contributions from the report. Instead of rallying on a continuation in growth, the greenback weakened against the euro and Japanese Yen.
The slowdown in growth verifies the Federal Reserve's concerns that a sustained recovery is all but certain. At the same time, it is undeniable that the U.S. consumer is playing a larger role in the recovery. Personal consumption grew by 3.6 percent, the strongest pace since the first quarter of 2007. Therefore the drag on growth came primarily from a drop in trade activity and a pullback in government spending. Although the GDP Price index rose by 0.9 percent, core prices grew by only 0.6 percent, which indicates that inflation remains muted.
Bernanke may be skeptical about the pace of growth but as we have seen by the pickup in consumer confidence and spending, more Americans are beginning to believe that the recovery is sustainable and there is plenty of evidence that the U.S. economy has turned a corner. As long as job growth continues and non-farm payrolls remain positive, this sentiment should hold and risk appetite should continue to improve. The weaker GDP number will only deal a small blow to USD/JPY which will be more sensitive to the market's overall risk appetite.
I think you will like it more. it's easier to use
well give it a shot of nyquil then lol
try using mozilla, it blows explorer away
http://www.mozilla.com/en-US/firefox/personal.html
I don't know what browser you are using but when I use to use explorer I would get those problems but now I use mozzila firefox and it runs great.
I'm fine for now on AU it's very top heavy so I wait like a good little boy lol
yeah it's not very far from it's 52 week high and we saw what happened last time it dropped.
just gonna have to wait out the storm I guess. been here done that
Cable Rallies on Prospects of Tory Win
The final debate for UK Prime Minister’s ended with a win for Tory David Cameron according to the YouGov/Sun poll. The poll showed that Cameron led with 41% of votes, Nick Clegg of Liberal Democrats was second with 32% and Labor ‘s Gordon Brown was dead last at 25%. Mr. Brown’s gaffe in the last week of campaigning (he had called a voter a “bigot” unaware that he was being taped on a live microphone) continues to hurt Labor chances and could result in massive losses for the ruling party.
Nevertheless it is unclear if the Tories will gain enough momentum to put them within range of forming a majority government. One critical unknown factor is just how much of the protest vote will go to Nick Glegg of the Liberal Democrats who only a week ago seemed to be on the cusp of breaking out, but has been hurt by the party’s policy on immigration.
Cable was muted in late Asian trading in the aftermath of the debate, but broke out above the 1.5350 level at the start of London dealing as currency markets became more optimistic about the prospects of a Tory win. Even if Mr. Cameron is forced to form a coalition government, Mr. Glegg has indicated that he would be open to the idea of sharing power with the Tories, thus lessening the chances of protracted political battle and a hung Parliament.
The pound may rally to the 1.5500 level if polling continues to favor Tories as campaigning enters its final days. However, the euphoria over the pro-business Tories will last only as long UK economic data continues to surprise to the upside. Any slowdown in growth will revive concerns over the country’s extremely fragile fiscal condition and could trigger the type turmoil that we are seeing in European credit markets.
Top Stories
* Barroso assures the market Germans will pass the Greek bailout deal
* UK election - Tories take the lead
* Asia up 1.2%, Europe up .4% as risk appetite returns
* OIl all the way back to $86/bbl
* Gold hitting new highs at $1174/oz.
Overnight Eco
* AUD HIA New Home Sales 0.9% vs. -5.2%
* AUD Private Sector Credit
* JPY Manufacturing PMI 53.5 vs. 52.4
* JPY Household Spending 4.4% vs. 0.7%
* JPY Tokyo Core CPI -1.9% vs .-2.0%
* JPY Unemployment Rate 5.0% vs. -4.9%
* JPY Prelim Industrial Production 0.3% vs. 0.9%
* JPY BoJ Rate Decision 10bp
* EUR Unemployment Rate 10.0%
Event Risk on Tap
* CAD GDP expected at 0.5%
* CAD RMPI expected at 0.6%
* CAD IPPI expected at 0.3%
* USD Advance GDP expected at 3.4%
* USD Employment Cost Index expected at 0.6%
* USD Chicago PMI expected at 60.2
* USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment expected at 71.3
Price Action
* USD/JPY rallies to 93.25 as risk flow return and BOJ remains still
* AUD/USD good housing data push it above .9300
* GBP/USD just below 1.5400 as market grapples with election news
* EUR/USD short covering continues as 1.3300 taken out to the upside
Risk FX continued its short covering rally on the last trading day of the week as European officials assured the markets that the Greek bailout deal would be completed shortly. Jose Barroso the European Commission President said that he was confident the rescue package would be ready “in days.” As the result, EUR/USD rallied through the 1.3300 barrier in early morning European dealing.
As we wrote yesterday, “With the unit now grossly oversold and eco data supportive some light short covering could push it back above 1.3300 before the week’s end.” Having reached the target the euro may now find some resistance around the 1.3400 level but with the Greek crisis under control for the time being, the single currency has lost much of its downside momentum and may spend the next several weeks consolidating at these levels unless currency traders see further turmoil in the credit markets.
There were no surprises on the economic front with European unemployment printing at 10% as expected while CPI reading rose to 1.5% - the highest level in nearly two years. Still the data had little impact on the market and many analysts argue that as a result of the massive rescue package for Greece, the ECB will have to maintain a loose monetary policy irrespective of any price pressures in the region. That factor could weigh negatively on the euro late into the year if the Fed begins to tighten while Mr. Trichet and company are forced to remain stationary. For now however, the unit was befitting from the easing or risk aversion sentiment and appears to have stabilized at these levels.
In UK, the focus will turn to politics as the election campaign enters its final days. The strong performance of Tory leader David Cameron in last night’s final televised debate has turned the markets more optimistic about the prospect of a Tory win. Even if Mr. Cameron is forced to form a coalition government, Mr. Glegg has indicated that he would be open to the idea of sharing power with the Tories, thus lessening the chances of protracted political battle and a hung Parliament.
The pound may rally to the 1.5500 level if polling continues to favor Tories as campaigning enters its final days. Still as we noted earlier, “the euphoria over the pro-business Tories will last only as long UK economic data continues to surprise to the upside. Any slowdown in growth will revive concerns over the country’s extremely fragile fiscal condition and could trigger the type turmoil that we are seeing in European credit markets.”
In North America today the market could see conflicting US economic data with GDP missing slightly to the downside but the Chicago PMI possibly beating its forecast. Overall US economic data continues to show steady improvement and that fact is being reflected in USD/JPY which has held the 94.00 level for the past several days and has burst through 94.40 resistance in overnight trade. With BOJ officials stating that the Japanese monetary will continue to remain stationary and with Japanese economic data overnight relatively mixed, the 3 month LIBOR spread between US and Japanese rates continues to widen out which is indicative of further upside in USD/JPY as 95.00 now comes into view
FX Upcoming
Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
CAD 12:30 8:30 CAD GDP 0.5% 0.6%
CAD 12:30 8:30 CAD RMPI 0.6% 0.4%
CAD 12:30 8:30 CAD IPPI 0.3% 0.0%
USD 12:30 8:30 USD Advance GDP 3.4% 5.6%
USD 12:30 8:30 USD Employment Cost Index 0.6% 0.5%
USD 13:45 9:45 USD Chicago PMI 60.2 58.8
USD 13:55 9:55 USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 71.3 69.5
Previous session overview
The pair Euro against the U.S. dollar rise to achieve the highest price at the level 1.33174 and the lowest price was at the level 1.32235, the pair trading now around the level of 1.33152.
The pair sterling against the U.S. dollar traded in a narrow range Diagonal upward the lowest price for the pair was at the level 1.53155 and the highest level was at 1.53723, the pair trading now around the level of 1.53740.
Finally the pair U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen traded in a narrow range between the highest level at 94.462 and the lowest level at 93.892 , the pair trading now around the level of 94.367.
Market Expectations
EUR/USD :The pair euro against the U.S. dollar penetrated the resistance level1.32650 after a long fluctuating around it closure of the four hours candlestick above this level make us sure that the pair will resumption of movement to the level of 1.33950 then to the level of 1.344450.
GBP/USD :Determined Indicators become near from saturation in purchasing for the pair of sterling against the U.S. dollar, this saturation makes the process of penetration for the resistance level at 1.53950 is difficult , therefore we expect a decline for the pair to re-examine the support level at 1.53670 , these expectations requires a stability of trading below the resistance level at 1.53950.
USD/JPY :The pair continues to fluctuate within a narrow range since reaching 94.00, thus we think that the pair is preparing to start a bearish wave over an intraday basis, supported by tops levels around 94.450 Technical targets start at 92.850 then 91.650 and require 94.450 to remain intact for them to prevail.
Hey I told you to short AU not buy it lol
EUROPEAN FOREX PROFESSIONAL WEEKLY
Analysis and Signals
April 28, 2010
http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/sive-morten-analysis/9651-euro-forex-pro-weekly-2010-04-28-a.html
sorry but what's cable, never played it before
As long as you have good MM I think it's a very good trade myself
oh come on and drink you a big glass of AU shorts lol
are you in short, I need your extra little push lol