Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Donot - it sets up a takings claim perfectly.
"We paid 308 billion to Treasury. SCOTUS said our debt has been paid, and now the Gov is going to take 80% of our company?"
Do you get the legal perspective? As JPS says, go talk to a lawyer ... one is down the hall ...
Stock - can you put the numbers out there you are seeing and the labels of the exhibit? I've looked at the same and it is company shares * share price = net asset value.
Share Price Value is the driving factor, not share quantity adjustment ... Take a deeper dive into the exhibit.
Shares * Share Price = Net Value
You are focusing on Net Value, and inferring Shares have changed, when the Share Price has changed and driving the Net Value change, while the Shares have stayed the same. This is all in the Annual Fairholme's report as of FY end being Nov 30th, 2020.
Now, Bradford said Berkowitz has sold or has been selling JPS recently. He may have insight into FY 2021 GSE divestiture.
DoNot - if LP is written to 0 that basically implies SCOTUS deems the gov paid back plus some, so now Warrants are executed at 80%?
I doubt it and if this never sees a final adjudication in the lower courts if SCOTUS doesn't do it first, then Warrants will be part of the settlement.
Good luck!
Haha! Fence, can you hear the tree starting to buckle? I can't wait for it to fall and splinter into a million pieces! Here comes the administrative try ... JPS, we've been telling you for a while now ... the admin is going to give it the ole' college try = delays!
DoNot - I'm calculating nominal damages and interest on top of the $308 billion, making it a cool $400 billion that has a chance to be returned to FnF.
Definitely worth a flyer by JPS to put some more in Commons if the LP is written down to 0. Anything more than that is gravy ...
Donot - you may want to ask Bradford why he believes Berkowitz has sold a % of JPS. That is diff DD.
Skeptic, once again I agree, JPS is a quagmire.
Skeptic, I agree JPS is a lost cause.
I followed but didint jump in until early 2019 ... so I haven’t been tied to this as long as many ...
Don’t forget interest and nominal damages put on top of the 308 Billion. Call it $400 Billion even ...
I just compared the semiannual 2020 Fairholme report to the full annual report across the three Fairholme funds - minimal to no share changes across the portfolios.
Now, the caveat is the 2020 reports are for FY 2020 ending in Nov 30th. So Bradford may have further info on the start of FY 2021.
DoNot - if memory serves Bradford said Berkowitz sold a % recently. You’ll have to consult with him on that ...
Stock - net assets in value or in share count? If in value other investments within the fund may have outperformed FnF and it will show FnF as a % investment of total assets going down.
Until detailed proof, can’t rely on this info ...
Eternal - even Fintel seems off - not sure these “stock” websites can be trusted to accurately represent OTC. Still not convinced on Ackman doubling up. Need more proof ...
Also need more specific proof Berkowitz sold large %s.
Stock - where in that document do you see the sale of FnF? It looks to me one would need to compare the prior annual report to this one.
Any help appreciated ...
Rick, if that is true it is hhhhuuuugggee, Trump style!
Ackman - Position Doubled to 217 Million Shares of FNMA
or was it an accounting change?
Per the link below Pershing Square Capital Management owns 115.6 Million shares and Pershing Square Holdings Ltd. shows newly bought 101.2 Million shares. This totals ~217 Million shares. How can this be confirmed?
https://money.cnn.com/quote/shareholders/shareholders.html?symb=FNMA&subView=institutional
Services Offered by Pershing Square Capital Management
“As mentioned earlier, Pershing Square Capital manages funds - two private funds and one public fund. Private funds Pershing Square, L.P. and Pershing Square International, Ltd. generally have the same strategies and objectives as Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd., the public fund.”
Is this a public vs private fund distinction where technically these funds may be technically independent, or is CNN’s software is separating the names only because they are different, creating separate line items actually the same? Although the share counts are different ... Inquiring minds ...
https://smartasset.com/financial-advisor/pershing-square-capital-management-review
Happy, that’s fine, but guessing on SCOTUS outcomes on the NWS is pure speculation and unnecessary... items were added into Hindes’s article to pump JPS. That is my point. It comes off as desperate given past articles were more centrist ...
Especially when everyone knows if the NWS and Liquidation Pref are nulled out, which security will outperform many times over JPS. Hint: It’s Commons ...
Action, Hindes has been decent in the past. This one enters into Bove’s world and seems a bit “desperate.” Out of character for Hindes although who knows how he may have been compensated...
Action, Hindes article is a little more than suspicious and trying to prognosticate that SCOTUS will rule against shareholders on the NWS based on oral arguments is an impossible ask. Highly speculative and his article is getting into Bove’s world.
Couple all of this with this continued “dead money” emphasis til June, and even someone said July and beyond, it’s curious if Hindes/Pags, etc are rotating into commons. They need time to do this ...
Very disappointing...
Stock, do u have a link to the report?
Hindes is playing games to benefit JPS ... he needs to give JPS a reason to stay in JPS, and if the NWS and Liquidation Preference aren’t nullified, it keeps the JPS conservative investment thesis alive. If the NWS and Liquidation Preference are nullified, then Commons outperform and it’s over. No more profiteering and warrants get cancelled or settled at a marginal cost to FnF.
It looks like Hindes was pleased with his veiled shots at Commons. I love folks who overestimate ...
Here is another key item ...
Remeber the Joe Light and Hackerman articles stating for at least 1.5 months that Mnuchin wasn’t going to do anything drastic, e.g., no Big Bang. But now we have Hindes rewriting history to say capital raises were ready for Q1 or Q2? What!?!?
Tim Howard’s - CFO OF Fannie who issued the JPS Hindes is invested in - called it a “Quagmire.” Hindes is try to give JPS a reason to stay in JPS. After no Big Bang JPS lost 50% relative to commons. The better invest right now is Commons and after an NWS and LP write down, Commons are forever cemented to be the front runner.
Fascinating the shennanigans being done after the JPS witnessdd “in horror” their JPS trade tank, and tank 50% relative to commons. Hasn’t Berkowitz sold some of his JPS position? Bradford?
Guido, I agree. There is obviously a group of JPS communicating and really trying to keep a consistent message. Tim P and Gary Hindes are pumping JPS. There are no two ways about it. Tim P has done a lot for shareholders, but the cynic in me also sees a partial conflict of interest where he has a fund more weighted to JPS than not and in a perfect world, of which we do not live, Tim P would be representing both equally. Frankly, I’d rather have Ackman and Berkowitz running investors unite instead of Tim P as they can move the pendulum between Commons and JPS closer to the center.
The titanic assumptions - and we all know how that turned out - being made in Hindes’s article is all of the sudden the Gov is going to rush to settle because a) their exposure is going to go up, b) they need to get capital in these companies asap, and most surprisingly c) where SCOTUS will rule against shareholders on the NWS and Liquidation Preference.
I hate to break it to the Hindes and Pagliaras of the world but this is the US gov with essentially infinite financial resources and not some Fortune 500 company with vastly finite resources where the risk/reward would determine a settlement.
Also , Ackman believes the opposite, that SCOTUS will write down the LP and, to stay on the resourcing theme, Ackman has infinitely more resources, relatively speaking, compared to Pagliara and Hindes.
Hindes and Pagliara are wise not to address commons, although I suspect surrogates - directly or indirectly told - push the conversion theory.
SCOTUS is much more important than anything else, and especially for commons. Didn’t Ackman recently increase his share count via another insulated fund so as to not break the 10% SEC regulatory reporting requirements?
You can easily tell their are some very giant leaps of faith on this investment thesis to keep JPS investors in their quagmire trade. JPS, ask yourselves, what if the NWS is ruled ultra vires by SCOTUS? Hindes believes it won’t be. He has no idea ... Also, JPS, ask yourselves what if SCOTUS goes beyond the 3rd amendment? All the way to the first amendment per Thompsons “concrete life preserver” analogy and essentially invalidates the whole conservatorship?
I find the thesis a bit disingenuous and heavily slanted to JPS because as Hindes stated, he and his fellow JPS investors watched “in horror” as their JPS shares tanked, and not only tanked but fell 50% relative to Commons. There is a reason why Tim Howard, the CFO of Fannie Mae who issued the very same JPS that Hindes and Pagliara are invested in, called JPS a “quagmire.”
I get the sense there is fear amongst JPS that being stuck in this “quagmire” trade may have them miss the Commons boat. They got trapped by the Trump and I honestly don’t buy they couldn’t move forward on the financial front because of the Capitol riot. Hindes has it on “good word” that Trump was going to push Mnuchin? Please ... Sounds quite familiar to what we hear on this board emanating from JPS, doesn’t it? If they accurately represent Commons, folks will sell their JPS for Commons ... more conflict of interest... *sigh*
Ackman vs Pagliara/Hindes? Who are you going to believe?
JPS PSA
Per the American Banker, they are already complaining about Calabria’s libertarian views. The Jan letter agreement will be dead after Scotus or will never be acted upon if Calabria stays. Either way, there will be a delay to raise capital because a Biden Treasury won’t play ball with a Trump leftover if Scotus doesn’t act.
If Scotus does act, it will take time to repropose all the stuff Calabria got enacted, a clean slate for affordable housing, which will also take til at least the end of Biden’s first term.
By the time all the dust settles, Commons appreciate. JPS with no dividends in sight may get to 50% of par. Another reason Tim Howard, the CFO who issued the very same JPS shares you’re invested in, called the JPS investment a “quagmire.” No way out ...
After Scotus it will be too late. Consider yourselves forewarned and balance your GSE portfolio accordingly.
CatBird - it’s 10$ just after Scotus - could go beyond that with Scotus and as the chips continue to fall, more and more SP appreciation.
Happy - you are a smart JPS investor where you own Commons. My suggestion to you is to get your friends to see the light and purchase Ccmmons also. I look forward to your support for Commons, and your public commentary in shrinking JPS back to reality.
Lastly, if there are no dividends for JPS in the foreseeable future and JPS are capped at par, how does JPS get close to par? Commons are PE sensitive and can see significant appreciation compared to JPS. JPS has lost 50% value relative to commons given Mnuchin basically shut the door on a 4 year expectation by JPS. The time to sell JPS was when Trump lost. Period. End of story ...
Tim Howard, the CFO who issued your JPS, called the JPS investment a quagmire. The SP of JPS and Commons are not tightly correlated.
Balance your FnF portfolio accordingly ...
JPS play
Even the most resolute JPS investors would admit in their secret twitter forums that they should be selling some of their JPS to take a flyer on SCOTUS bulldozing this whole fiasco.
Even Tim Howard, the CFO who issued the very same JPS shares folks on this board promote, called their trade a “quagmire.”
A ton of JPS fantasy scenarios conjured up to keep or create more JPS bagholders. No dividends for these shares. A court case in June 2022 that, from my sources, is saying the case will get delayed to the end of 2022 or beginning of 2023.
Biden will reverse everything Calabria has done as Calabria’s rules will hinder Biden’s view on affordable housing.
There are virtually no lifeboats for the JPS Quagmire passengers ... I hope they don’t all perish ... I think Berkowitz has already secured a lifeboat ... Good luck steerage class passengers...
The JPS rotation to Commons continues.
A lot of JPS vehicles to mask how they continue to accumulate FNMA and FMCC.
Outsiders beware, you will become a JPS bagholder if you listen to the usual folks.
Tim Howard, the Fannie Mar CFO who issued the majority of JPS, called their trade a “quagmire.” Don’t take it from me ...
We’re not talkin’ ur friendly neighborhood swamp ... we’re talkin’ deep swamp, bayou (DC) swamp!
Bradford ... nice one ...
FNMAS, FNMAT, FNMFO, etc., are in a quagmire per the CFO who issued those shares for Fannie Mae ...
Good Luck
Tim Howard (CFO Fannie Mae) calls JPS a Quagmire
The CFO who issued the very same JPS shares that the JPS investors are invested in called them a quagmire because they aren't getting dividends and there is no hope for valuing those shares.
JPS want your Commons shares ... becareful!
JPS Quagmire Trade ...
Here is a very basic way to view the JPS quagmire investment thesis, which is so laser focused on the financial angle they can’t see the more important legal and political perspectives, making their investment a quagmire.
JPS’s theory of how the Gov/FHFA will address/speak to this situation after a favorable Scotus ruling:
“Guess what, everyone, FnF received $180 billion from us (the gov) and repaid $300 billion back to us, netting us $124 billion dollars in profit. That equals a whopping %67 ROI for us (the gov).
So now that Scotus has basically told us (the gov) we need to honor the intent (9/10ths of the law) of a conservator to conserve and preserve our ward’s assets, and that Scotus has de facto or de jure 0’d out the liquidation preference, we are still going to do more to help us (the gov) generate more money.
We (the gov) know FnF repaid us orders of magnitude more than AIG, Citi, Insurance companies, Auto Industry, etc, but we don’t care. We are going to go further to profiteer from the GSEs.
What we (the gov) plan on doing on top of the $124 billion we netted on our PSPA investment is to now take %80 control of FnF because we can and we will for no other reason that we can - so too bad.
But wait, shareholders, there is more. We know both Common and JPS shareholders have completely lost control of their company, and both have been left out in the cold going on 13 years, but we are going to reward only the JPS shareholders and destroy the Common shareholders.
Sorry, even though we (the gov), have already profited at $124 billion, we are going to take these measure to spite shareholders, and especially Commons because we can’t use one tiny bit of creative financing to manage this situation so it is equitable for all shareholders. We (the US Treasury) who has 100s of years of industry experience doesn’t know how to restructure a company equitably that has already been paid to a net profit of over $124 billion dollars, equating to the best deal for us (the gov) since the Louisiana Purchase.
We (the gov) have no appreciation of what a $124 billion dollar windfall to us means within the historical context of the entire existence of the US republic. We do know this was the best investment deal we have ever made, but we are going to exploit and profiteer from FnF further.
Further legal considerations be darned because we don’t care. We will do more to extract every drop of blood out of the FnF stone, shareholders and legal challenges after our actions be darned.”
If you believe the above I have a JPS portfolio ... uh, I mean a bridge in NYC Metro area to sell you ...
Here is a very basic way to view the JPS investment thesis, which is so laser focused on the financial angle they can’t see the more important legal and political perspectives.
JPS’s theory of how the Gov/FHFA will address/speak to this situation after a favorable Scotus ruling:
“Guess what, everyone, FnF received $180 billion from us (the gov) and repaid $300 billion back to us, netting us $124 billion dollars in profit. That equals a whopping %67 ROI for us (the gov).
So now that Scotus has basically told us (the gov) we need to honor the intent (9/10ths of the law) of a conservator to conserve and preserve our ward’s assets, and that Scotus has de facto or de jure 0’d out the liquidation preference, we are still going to do more to help us (the gov) generate more money.
We (the gov) know FnF repaid us orders of magnitude more than AIG, Citi, Insurance companies, Auto Industry, etc, but we don’t care. We are going to go further to profiteer from the GSEs.
What we (the gov) plan on doing on top of the $124 billion we netted on our PSPA investment is to now take %80 control of FnF because we can and we will for no other reason that we can - so too bad.
But wait, shareholders, there is more. We know both Common and JPS shareholders have completely lost control of their company, and both have been left out in the cold going on 13 years, but we are going to reward only the JPS shareholders and destroy the Common shareholders.
Sorry, even though we (the gov), have already profited at $124 billion, we are going to take these measure to spite shareholders, and especially Commons because we can’t use one tiny bit of creative financing to manage this situation so it is equitable for all shareholders. We (the US Treasury) who has 100s of years of industry experience doesn’t know how to restructure a company equitably that has already been paid to a net profit of over $124 billion dollars, equating to the best deal for us (the gov) since the Louisiana Purchase.
We (the gov) have no appreciation of what a $124 billion dollar windfall to us means within the historical context of the entire existence of the US republic. We do know this was the best investment deal we have ever made, but we are going to exploit and profiteer from FnF further.
Further legal considerations be darned because we don’t care. We will do more to extract every drop of blood out of the FnF stone, shareholders and legal challenges after our actions be darned.”
If you believe the above I have a JPS portfolio ... uh, I mean a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you ...
Bradford, you have been horribly wrong. Worse than most as many have at least caveated their speculation. You and your friends seem to be wrong all the time ... constantly backing into narratives for JPS.
Commons have been stating legal path all the way and haven't been trying to compare Commons to JPS, with amateur hour trying to keep Commons down for any number of amateurish reasons ...
Bradford, your track record is atrocious and you need to stop digging - first rule of thumb to get out of a hole ...
If I were JPS, I'd be taking flyers on the chance SCOTUS bulldozes everything. There are some pretty interesting documents passed around before conservatorship and afterwards that are compelling.
One would think they'd want to ride the unlimited upside of commons.
Good Luck, JPS!
So if Calabria is persona non grata, do you think it’s because Biden doesn’t like Calabria personally? Ha!
Of course not, Biden doesn’t like Calabria’s policies that could have a very real and unintended impact on affordable housing.
So, it’s not a stretch to realize Calabria’s policies will be reversed.
If anyone thinks with an indirect favorable Scotus ruling that the end result is not determined is fooling themselves. With a favorable Scotus ruling - even indirect - the pinnacle has been attained and it is all down hill from there.
Good Luck, JPS, holden out for threading the needle ..
Bradford, typically vague as you're always wrong ...
"A blessing on the en banc ...?" Way to get specific ... Way to provide some insight that means anything ...
Stop digging, otherwise you go further into the hole ...
Bradford, the same people you speak to who got the whole Big Bang 100% wrong? You’re wrong all the time ... the first rule of thumb about getting out of a hole is to stop digging ...
Jog, how does paying $300+ billion to the gov and asking Scotus to call the deal settled hurting tax payers?
It’s literally a simple accounting entry. Also, the only real argument the gov is making is that shareholders have no right to sue. That’s it. They aren’t defending anything specific, just that shareholders can’t sue, and that everything that was done was by the business judgement of conservator.
Good Luck with your JPS investment - it’s a quagmire per the CFO who issued the shares you’re invested in ...