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Thanks for all your hard work and analysis on this and all your other posts - Rodney. Personally I believe that the warrants are enforceable even though the Conservatorship was a pretext - especially for FMCC. FMCC did not have the sub-prime related losses that FNMA had and always posted a positive cash flow result even during the years right out of Conservatorship.
I think your numbers are credible giving a best case value before any dilution from new capital raises. There will have to be new capital raised and there will be dilution. I would be happy in the $ 8-15 range on a fully diluted basis.
Thanks again Rodney! Dont give in and dont give up!
Or - the beginning of a 3 year end. The next Admin will take the money and run with it.
We will win Collins v Yellen in the 5th Circuit EnBanc
No - just managing expectations. Mr. Market has been brutal to GSE shareholders but perhaps wrongly so. It seem like the market price does not reflect a possible win. Even 9 cent judgement is a lot for a 44 cent stock
Thanks for all your efforts Robert. We really should have low expectations because that is what Mr. Market is telling up. Skeptic has been the most right and he will be until he is not. We should not expect a plaintiff's victory here. If it happens it will be significant because it will prove Mr. Market and Skeptic wrong. In any event we should never give up!
God Bless Kenya K. Davis Esq. !!!!!!
Thank you Robert!!
The Collins Case will be an Enbanc Hearing again in the Fifth Circuit - probably in September.
Hi Kthomp - while SCOTUS overturned Collins it may have indicated that it would deem the SPS Void as a remedy for a Separation of Powers violation.
Here an excerpt from the Minority Opinion of Collins in 2019 regarding the voiding of the SPS
"In my view the proper remedy for a (removal separation of powers Constitutional violation) is to vacate the Third Amendment. I respectively dissent form the court's decision to instead grant a prospective remedy. "
Judge Willet joined by Jones, Smith, Elrod, Ho, Engelhardt, and Oldham.
Collins v McNuchin Case 17-20364 Date Filed 9/06/2019 Page 118
Since Collins in 2109 there has been another Trump Appointee - Judge Wilson add and one JB Appointee. Probably 8-8 to void and 9 to 7 if Judge Kyle Duncan reverses his vote on the remedy.
Good basis to assume that the 5th would vote 9-7 to void the SPS on the upcoming En Banc Opinion likely to be heard in September.
Bryndon Fisher, Bruce Reid and Erick Shipmon - true Patriots fighting for the immortal truths embedded in the US Constitution.!!! Hurrah!!!!
Hi Glenn, If you toss a grain of salt in a body of salt water as you suggest - are you really diluting the salt water or making it more concentrated? It is kind of simple chemistry isnt it? When you add NaCl to a body of H2O - you are making the NaCl that is in solution more concentrated. Every little grain of salt helps - like your kind of dilution!
Thank You Bryndon Fisher For Keeping Up the Good Fight!!. Thank you for all the time and money that you have spent over the years litigating on behalf of GSE shareholders! You are a true patriot, scholar and a gentleman!
A big Thank you to Bruce Reid and Erick Shipmon also!!!
Lots happening with 5th Circuit Court of Appeals - no En Banc Schedule for Collins yet but Missouri v JB is on the Docket for Aug 10
https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/oral-argument-information/court-calendars/Details/1688/
An Admin Action will most likely be challenged by new litigation relating to MQD issues if the action has policy objectives imbedded in the Admin Action. Would expect MQD litigation regarding the LLPA mortgage subsidy of low credit rating borrowers by high credit rating borrowers. The Admin needs to settle the law suits if it really wants to have any chance of being successful with an Admin action.
I am a moron until I am not. We cant give up. SCOTUS is boxing itself in and MAY ultimately be forced to do the right thing regarding the GSEs. More likely is that there is a settlement with the plaintiffs before it gets to that point. In any event the litigation is narrowing with the current plaintiffs. There will probably be a MQD challenge to any Admin Action that has policy objectives imbedded in them.
The Fith Circuit has 9 of its 16 Judges appointed by Trump or Regan.
ROP is still alive - Thompson wants to amend the complaint to add an Appropriations Clause violation as a cause of action .
https://www.glenbradford.com/2023/07/rop-v-fhfa-3/
Robert - Thanks for the heads up on the 2023-2024 Calendar!
Eternal Paitence - you think that the FHFA is taking capital level comments as part of the Single Mortgage comments? It seems like Franklin Templeton thinks so. I would encourage everyone to read that comment letter. I could not get a good link for that Letter - it looks really interesting but I just skimmed it at first glance.
Wow! Need to check that out littlefishFMCC! Thanks
You are right Glenn - UST will be required to restructure "their" equity. The SPSA will have to be written down and it is the only fair remedy for the Unconstitutional acts of the UST.
Thanks for sharing Guido! Thanks for all your efforts!
That is a great Tweet - TheYuckyOne came up with a very delectable menu of hypocrisies as a reply to the House Financial Services Tweet.
Good Morning Barron4664
Thank you for your advocacy and for the time and money you have spent for our cause. We all should do what we can.
Thanks again!
Great perspective Ace Trader - Thanks!
I agree with you Ace Trader. SCOTUS boxed itself in with Collins but I am suprised they did not take up Rop. Do you have any opinion on why they did not take up Rop?
Hi DCBill,
If the JB Admin want to take over the GSEs by an Admin action they will need to settle the lawsuits first? Otherwise an Admin action will be stalled by Constitutional challenges - wouldn't you expect a MQD lawsuit now challenging the LLPA fee structure because it favors borrowers with poor credit scores at the expense of borrowers who have worked hard to maintain a high credit score? If the JB Admin proposes some type of Admin action to make up for the failings of the CRA and to promote DEI objectives there will be MQD challenges which will be added to the existing Separation of Powers challenges.
Hi Glenn, This valuation is based on the stock price - is that why you continue to say that the common is worthless and will be crammed down into oblivion? You seem to want to stock prices for the common to go to zero?
Good Morning Rodney5
Thank you for all your research and work on behalf of GSE shareholders.
I apologize for not following up earlier about the shareholder lists but I do not think I would have an easier time getting the information nor do I think it is material to our cause at the current time. Unfortunately, the management company for the Growth Fund of America has sold all of its shares and taken their tax losses so we do not have a known large common shareholder except Ackman at this point.
In the near term the most important shareholder action is the Lamberth court case and it is clear that the class action lawyers have access to all the FMCC common shareholders. Although we probably have 50/50 odds at best it is our best near term catalyst for some shareholder activism. If shareholders win perhaps we may see a large holder appear. I know the potential return for FMCC is small but it is a sizable percentage of the current stock price.
At this point I am just trying to highlight the factual history of the GSEs and add balance to the discussion regarding the future prospects for GSEs shareholders.
Thank you so much for your efforts - I believe they will be rewarded but like many things in life - " timing is everything". Keep the faith and thank you again!
New Report About the GSEs:
https://www.glenbradford.com/category/uncategorized/
This excerpt below is obviously not true - the GWB Admin had planned to Nationalize the GSEs as early as March 2008. :
"However, the legislation authorizing its creation, the
Housing and Economic Recovery Act, would not pass until
July 2008, in the middle of the world’s most devastating
financial crisis in decades. While in Beijing for the 2008
Summer Olympic Games, Paulson learned that “Russian
officials had made a top-level approach to the Chinese suggesting that together they might sell big chunks of their GSE
holdings to force the U.S. to use its emergency authorities
to prop up those companies. The Chinese had declined to go
along with the disruptive scheme, but the report was deeply
troubling — heavy selling could create a sudden loss of confidence in the GSEs and shake the capital markets.”3
The emails and Memos show that there was a clear plan to Nationalize in March - not some fear that the Chinese were going to sell MBS
https://fcic-static.law.stanford.edu/cdn_media/fcic-testimony/2007-2008_Fannie_Mae_Timeline_and_Supporting_Documents.pdf
Delusional? It was clearly delusional to expect the GWB Admin to disclose their plan to Nationalize the GSEs in March 2008 to Merrill Lynch and the underwriters of FNMAT and the other JPS series sold in the late Spring of 2008. Merrill Lynch was the lead Underwriter of FNMAT in May 2008.
https://fcic-static.law.stanford.edu/cdn_media/fcic-testimony/2007-2008_Fannie_Mae_Timeline_and_Supporting_Documents.pdf
Judge for Mike Kelly COFC Case switched from DJT Appointee to JB Appointee
https://www.glenbradford.com/2023/07/kelly-v-u-s/
Try CFR 31 902.2 This will be the justification to write down the SPSA after the 5th Circuit rules it void as a Constitutional Remedy.
Heads up - if the SPSA is deemed void - common shareholders are entitled to 20% of the market value of the GSEs
Right on tutt1126
If the USG can take over the US Housing Credit system they can take over the Farm Credit System and impose the political philosophy of the governing party. Farmer Mac is part of the Farm Credit System:
Here is the last paragraph of the CBO GSE restructuring Paper:
In addition, changing the federal government’s relationship with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might prompt an assessment of the government’s relationship with other government-sponsored enterprises that support mortgage lending. Those other GSEs include the Federal Home Loan Banks, which make low-cost loans to their member institutions (such as commercial banks, credit unions, and insurance companies), and the Farm Credit System, which provides financial assistance for rural mortgages and other loans guaranteed by the Department of Agriculture.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56511
Do you the JB Admin would like to make the Farm Credit System promote woke farm policy?
Happy Independence Day Amelia! Has your Mom thought about running for President? She seems like she is the right age and probably as smart or more smart that the current office holder? Bet she is totally surprised about how shareholders have been treated? She is definitely smarter than me because I bought FNMAT at $ 25 on the New Issue ! Please wish you Mom the best! She is probably very proud to have such a smart daughter like you.
Happy 4th Skeptic!
Give this timeline some full transparency from some good old sunlight that many have fought for!
https://fcic-static.law.stanford.edu/cdn_media/fcic-testimony/2007-2008_Fannie_Mae_Timeline_and_Supporting_Documents.pdf
Correction - the Franklin Templeton Letter say it has an "extensive history" of ownership of Common and JPS. I dont believe it says it owns the common or JPS as of 6/29/23. My apologies.