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I am not pumping .. but anyone is looking for great deal of upside .. 10 x is too little ...
get little bit of ... Novo Resources Corp. (NSRPF)
do your own research..
Every tiny company in Metal and Mining space has presentation material as well as public speaking and promoting to get to public. Randy & Co has to create Investor Presentation material and make it public in company's website, months before they can start working on mobilizing new investor.
With no material being public yet, I would suspect Randy might have other plans or ways to go before Randy can talk about bringing Hycroft Mining to Public.
On 05/02/2018 - HYCTW had high .33, low of .20 closed at .26 with volume of 48.8K.
I see that april-may of 2018 had quite a bit of volume as well, someone dried up all warrants during that time.
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/HYCTW/overview
Do we have any HYCT stock holders here in this board to get the finance through investor relation ?
Based on my calculation (purely technical - Elliot Wave
Silver's impulsive wave started on Week ending May 20th (14.27)
-- Ended week ending June 17th (15.53) (1)
-- Corrected 50% to 14.87 weekending June 1st (2)
Started Wave 3 with 3.618% extension ending on 19.62 (2nd Sept) (3)
-- Correcting already crossed 50% correction 16.99, probably hit 61.8% Retracement to 16.31 (could come this week)..
Silver will go for a wild run with Driving Minors up ... Minors yet to start real run...
Gold to Silver Ratio:
Hit high on July 1st with 93.39.
Is on third leg up after going down to below 80 on week ending Sept ..
It is correcting to 61.8% Retracement to 88.
Gold the lead the rally and Silver will follow and take over the rally by % by driving down on Gold to Silver ratio close to 65 area during next rally, this will be huge...
Calculation has many layers, will be hard to explain..
I did create two calculation one from Warrants to stock and reverse way.
If these stocks are being sold by the employees (awarded tough equity) or by investor (not likely) and are genuine. I would guess, stock should give better % return in comparison to warrants (in spite of having anti-dilution)
Looking at HYCT valued at .01
Warrants are traded at .07
With following assumption (please correct if any of these are wrong)
# Stocks: 120M
Number of Warrants: 12,9M
Warrants: 17.5% of the company
Warrant Strick Price: 8.4
Net Present Value: 2.1B
When I balance both stock and warrant price, warrants comes with remaining time factor of $8.453
Company Valuation of $1.253M
NPV Multiplier is .0006
I saw your question on equity, equity is as you know is (Asset - Liability) which is the factor to understand how company is doing year over year. Market Cap is related and Debt part is more significant to understand growth and negative impact to the company.
Example:
AU (AngloGold Ashanti Limited) has Owner's Equity of 2.6B, Market Cap of 8.9B.
AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines Limited) has owner's equity of 4.5B, Market Cap of 14.5B
AG (First Majestic Silver Corp) equity of 594M, Market Cap of 2.25B
FNV (Franco-Nevada Corporation) equity of 4.6B, Market Cap of 18.2B
I guess it all will depend on how Hycroft can
-- Produce positive cash flow quarter over quarter
-- remove all debt
-- use positive cash flow to drive growth year over year instead of getting any further loan or asking for money from secondary market.
Here is the example with .4xNPV
NPV (2,100,000,000) X .4 = 840,000,000 Company valuation (Market Cap of the company)
Warrant portion (17.5%) = 147,000,000
Minus Warrant Strike price = 8.4 * 12,900,000 = 108,360,000
Residual value = 147,000,000 - 108,360,000 = 38,640,000
Residual Value Per Warrant = 38,640,000/12,900,000 = $2.995
Time optionality for three years will be additional $1 plus minimum, which makes it $4.00 warrant price.
.4x NPV is quite low considering
-- Hycroft is already producing 750 oz gold per week
-- low all in cost
-- tier-one jurisdiction
-- YoY growth
-- Potential Metal price sky rocketing by 2020.
Wmucca,
Looks like you have lots of knowledge of the industry, I would think .2 to .4 times of NPV is generally for early stage explorers where mills needs to lots of work. Way Randy is at least project this project, it looks like a very low cost mine AISC should come much below $1000 with tier-one jurisdiction and growth potential for next three years, this poppy should give at least 1xNPV, we can be conservative to take between .6xNPV and 1xNPV. If Randy keeps the growth going as well as metal moving during 2020, NPV will keep climbing as well.
With reference to # of stock and market capitalization, I see similar company line PVG has 184M shares at $9.48. which is close to 2.5 times of shares with respect to our current warrant conversion.
Here are some of the valuation with respect to corresponding NPV multiplicity
.3xNPV = warrant value - stick_price = $0.15
.4xNPV = warrant value - stick_price = $3.00
.6xNPV = warrant value - stick_price = $8.69
.8xNPV = warrant value - stick_price = $14.39
1xNPV = warrant value - stick_price = $20.09
Assumption: 12.9M as 17.5% of the company
Plus warrants has 3 years of remaining time optionality.
I guess potential move on warrants is yet to come, it will just explode one of these days.
Good luck all,
Its all depends on valuation of the company, if it is 200m, we will have 2.5 times with warrants.
This is right.. I took 12,727,273 as number of warrant, I can replace with your 12,9000,000 warrant figure to calculate.
Company will get $108,300,000 during exercise (considering 12.9M warrants) to acquire the actual stocks, but warrants has follow advantages
1. It holds anti-dilution until expiry. Any further issuance of shares will be subject multiplication of warrant shares.
2. You have a time factor optionality, which will have value until day of expiry, you will get more by selling the warrant in open market rather than exercising it.
www.alliednevada.com is gone,
new site is
http://www.hycroftmining.com/
Total current stick price which is (total warrants * 8.4) will remain same when you multiple warrants with keep dividing the strike price.. total will always remain same.
Basic is you take 17.5% total value of the company and divide by total number of current warrants will give you per warrant share price. Subtract with current strike price 8.4.
With $2.1B company valuation every warrants will have net value (after subtracting strike price of $8.4) $20.
With $5B company valuation every warrants will have net value (after subtracting strike price of $8.4) $60.
On larger picture, I want to get it done... Either I am totally wrong (have to cover with gain from another investment) or if this DOG (Randy) succeed, will give few thousand %. I got all mine filled in ask.
I got few yesterday .. done for now. Expecting to retire when Randy makes this company to $5B : - )
Nick,
We have to keep in mind our overall % in the company (due to anti dilution) will never changes and aligns with company valuation.
Eventually Randy will has to proof that he can delivery and make this company back to $5B company.. we will have many many multiplication for our warrants, will decide our stick price. But the % to the company, profit sharing does not change.
FYI: http://www.alliednevada.com/ is down since yesterday. Speculating that they are changing the face of the company to start marketing to take it to next level.
Thanks
Since August 2019 750 ounces per week:
Production from the restart began in August 2019 and the Company is now seeing consistent weekly production in excess of 750 gold equivalent ounces from oxide ores.
6months:
750*26 = 19500 onces * 1450 = 28.2million
With low capital investment, Hycroft should becoming profitable soon!
Good luck all longs on this board...
What do you guys think about tomorrow's Warrant price to be ...
$0.50
$1
$2
$5
$10
Based on $2.1 valuation warrant price comes to $20 plus without adding remaining 3 years of time factor.
Don't understand what FINAL means..
Looks pretty good Net Present Value of $2.1billion with $1300 gold and 17.33 silver.
We are going to see 1700 Gold $25 Silver price very soon. 5 millions to 85 millions tons of production in 6 years.
This DOG should fly to $5billion easy.
We should see our warrants to have multiple splits to cover the final share volume.
Any expert opinion on grades at Hycroft Mine: Based on what I see grades are (based on post BK filling)
Gold at .009 t/oz which comes to close to .26 t/g.
Silver at .443 Which is 12.55 t/g
Which are not really bad numbers. Additionally looking at new technology it might create some catalyst for the company to capture more companies in the later stage of exploration ad make ANV into a larger company.
current warrants has value of 05 cents, we have no real value. It is only future expectation.
Cashless: one can exercise when stock is trading above warrant strike price. Mostly warrants will trade higher than the value differential (it carries time decay factor).
Until this dog start trading in exchange and start reporting, we can all dream but they are all just dreams.
Recruiting activity is in full force...
Linked in for 'Allied Nevada Gold Corp (3AI)' has 26 active links and 20 plus jobs..
http://www.alliednevada.com/careers/ also having many openings.
Mad Buffington might be working his way up.
It was late night for me, I put the formula wrongly. corrected below.
(my_Share * Total_Percentage) / Total_Number_Warants
(53667 * .175)/12727273
ok.. Expectations are company should value north of $1B.
it is similar to option, you don't need to exercise. Your value of warrants will be higher than differential between stock price and stick price.
Our warrants are special with anti dilution in it.
Most likely stick price will be lower as company will dilute shares.
Company has to value 600M plus to get any sense to exercise the warrants. It all depend if company can produce revenue & profit to increase the valuation.
(Total_Number_Warants * Total_Percentage) / (my_Share)
(12727273 * .175)/53667
I have 0.074% of the company, have to buy 19.1K warrants to make it .1% of the company.
Here is the document with number of warrants
https://www.osc.gov.on.ca/en/SecuritiesLaw_ord_20160728_215_hycroft-mining-corp.htm
25. There are currently 12,727,273 Hycroft Warrants issued and outstanding subject to the limitations on the number of record holders of Hycroft Securities, including the Hycroft Warrants, set forth in the US Corporate Charter, of which, Hycroft Warrants are beneficially held by 2,565 Canadians. Based on the most recent information available to the Filer, including geographical reports and the shareholders register, as of February 2, 2016, approximately 7.2% of the Hycroft Warrants are beneficially held by Canadians and approximately 12.0% of the beneficial holders of Hycroft Warrants are Canadians.
I hold 53,667 number of warrants, which makes me 0.0007379 % owner of the company. Once I see some volume, will try to make to .0001 % share holder, have to buy 19.3K more.
I got the numbers... there are 12,727,273 warrants, holds 17.5 % of the company.
To understand valuation of the company .. What are the total # of warrants ? Do we have 74M warrants or it was pre split stocks ?
Anyone ?
Original share holder as of BK hold 17.5% of total company, this gives shareholder right for anti dilution.
$8.40 conversion was based on no further dilution of the stocks as of BK.
JPMorgan traders charged by DOJ, accused of rigging metal markets..
Racketeering conspiracy - also known as RICO conspiracy
There is a 'Final Report in Chapter 11 case' uploaded on Sept 20th 2019 in Price Clerk.. Not sure how it impacts, but we are coming to some closure of the this chapter ...
Here is the link if someone is looking for it
https://cases.primeclerk.com/alliednevadagold/Home-DocketInfo
If you all are around since last 5 years of painful journey with this POS.. let us hang on till the end...
Beauty about Short Sell is you don't have to own to sell ... They can just sell the contract without owning it as long as the brokerage house allows it.
It depends, it could be a retaliatory move by China (what US is doing in trade war and hong kong) to bring US to front ...
Keep in mind that 2001, we had all political support to smash a easy target (Afganishan) in-spite of all the hijacker being Saudi.. We have lost money, resource & have significant human loss.. Yet to exit out of this mess..
This time around we have no allies other than broken UK .... By us going into any proper exit plan... will be a huge mistake.. at this situation.. we might loose our Primary leadership role in the world .. and depending on who are all are involved ... Saudi might get devastated as well...
I guess guys.. Saudi has been pawn mindless in this deal and doing measurably with its neighbors .. Our politicians has been just focusing on to stay agreement as long as it does not impact our economy.. Middle east people are already being killed everyday, to serve oil to the world ...
Now not sure who took the action, it is impacting everyones economy not just constant killing in Middle East countries people in the name of terrorism ... I will guess Russia and China are behind this to bring everyone get involved ...
US bas been in war since last 18 plus years which has drained all its money and resources .. It is very apparent that whole world is going to go to into long running recession sooner or later... If US dragged into into this war quickly .. the last standing economy of the world (due to king Dollar) that is US economy will go much quicker into recession ...