Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
So you're hedged 33% like Ackman too?
I never would have guessed that based on your incessant pumping of FNMA.
Where does losing Calabria leave us if this isn't resolved in next few weeks?
Whatever is coming better come soon, because after Calabaria leaves anything that comes likely won't be good for Commons.
It's coming amigos!
Definitely not a reverse of the Conservatorship, probably not even a return of the over-payments (above 10% moment).
But something is coming, that I know.
We just don't know what it is yet. Let's hope it's good for the FNMA Gamblers!
Need an umbrella today? The FNMA $2 Magnet sure is strong.
Even the Irrational Exuberance couldn't bring Commons to escape velocity.
Thankfully everyone Sold the Pop!
That strategy didn't work well if you listened to the oral arguments in front of Judge Ginsburg or Judge Sweeney.
Both had horrible comments re: the Treasury's and FHFA's actions, yet both Judges ruled against Plaintiffs.
Sounds like another losing strategy.
JPS weathered the storm today. Commons not so much.
The fulcrum continues to shine.
Wondering if FNMA will even Pop on PSPA Amendment.
It seems the good news is already baked in. The market is figuring this out today.
PSPA might be a "Sell the News" moment for Commons since Jr. Preferreds will then move into first position.
I would expect Jr. Preferreds to be at 50% of Par or higher on PSPA news.
From what date and price are you offering the wager? And when does the wager end?
Just so I understand, does the percentage start the day of the PSPA Amendment or the day after if it's announced during trading hours?
And is it only FNMAS or do I get to pick which Jr. Preferred I want this competition to be between?
Maybe if they issue new JPS at $1 you can get 4 for 1 Common.
I wouldn't expect to get more than $4-5 within the next few years though.
Even Irrational Exuberance won't be able to propel FNMA that high.
It'd be nice to Convert at $0.01 or around that price.
It's certainly within the realm of possibilities.
That would be really nice for JPS though. Get $25 or $50 worth of Commons and then immediately sell into the bid. They still come out ahead
It's okay. Commons will be worthless by then.
The Irrational Exuberance sure runs strong in FNMA.
Very high hopes for SCOTUS, which I expect to be another let down.
No ruling expected until May or June, and we've seen what reading into the Judge's comments has done for us in the past with Ginsburg's ("Salt the Earth") and Sweeney's ("Mafia Loans") comments.
Both of those judges still ruled against us, so SCOTUS won't give any hints for us unfortunately.
But if you want to Gamble and wait 6 months, go for it! That's what the Lemmings will likely do since the Common Nonsense here is that SCOTUS will make a quick decision in our favor which will be obvious to decipher based on the oral arguments
Sure, Holden posted the link to the interview yesterday:
https://twitter.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1333889498019717121?s=20
If you listened to Richard Epstein yesterday on the CEI call, then you'd know this is incorrect.
SCOTUS can, and likely will, still rule even after a settlement.
So, Calabria is no longer safe. That's why Jan 20 is now a bright line in the sand.
If we cross Jan 20 without SPSPA Amendment and Consent Decree, it's Game Over.
Game Over for Commons at least. JPS will still have Judge Lamberth's remanded case for damages.
The Lemmings were slow to realize the Capital Rule isn't great for Commons.
The Common Nonsense suggested it was, so they bought FNMA.
But the Lemmings took the time to read the Capital Rule and figured out it isn't so great after all.
These darn Lemmings are really causing too many price fluctuations.
We really should file a lawsuit to stop them from Selling the Pop.
That $2 Magnet is pulling FNMA pretty hard again today.
Is it going to pull Commons all the way back and reverse the entire move up?
This is the case Sweeney ruled against us on, right?
How could Sweeney see all this damning information and still rule in favor of the Government?
Are we now living in Venezuela?
Banana Republic!
It would be a good time for Commons to take a step back and reflect on the FNMA Facts.
Considering most Average Joes can now sell for only a small loss (versus a significant loss like last week), this exercise would be in everyone's best interest.
I think most will come to the same conclusion as has been repeated here for a long time -- Commons are a Gamble!
I imagine you'll see the Rotation from Commons to Jr. Preferreds commence again in the days ahead as most AJs reflect on their poor Gambling habits.
If the win is as shallow as making Calabria removable at will, then yes it won't affect Commons in a positive way.
It would impact Commons' price in a negative way though.
Gotta Sell the Pops, FNMA Always Drops!
I can wait another year for Lamberth's Court. Commons have everything hinged on SCOTUS, and not much positive will come out of SCOTUS for Commons.
The good thing about Lamberth's Court is those claims get better as time goes on since the damages keep accruing
Commons are left with nothing after SCOTUS besides attempting to appeal Sweeney's dismissal.
It's already priced in, but this News wasn't:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3640447
Profit taking always starts once Buy volume disappears.
Can you feel the $2 Magnet pulling FNMA back towards it?
It's coming amigos!
How are the GSEs going to raise $100+B?
Are the Warrants being exercised? Are the Sr. Preferreds being Converted to Commons?
Are the Jr. Preferreds being Converted to Commons?
How many shares will be outstanding once the capital raises are done?
JPS don't care about how the GSEs raise the $100+B, that only affects Commons.
JPS don't care about how many shares of Commons are outstanding, that also only affects Commons.
JPS have almost all of their questions answered already.
Commons still have a lot of uncertainty, and that usually leads to Irrational Exuberance due to confusion and Common Nonsense.
Nothing has changed. More capital is now required, that's about it.
Commons are still in the dark.
Ackman did them a favor and pumped the price.
Hopefully everyone took profits earlier by Selling the Pop.
The $2 magnet is calling FNMA's name
Trader's Paradise! Gotta love the volatility in Commons.
FNMA is the gift that keeps on giving.
Sell the Pops!
Why the reversal today? Do FNMA Facts matter again?
Commons have no more certainty than they did earlier this year.
Let's just hope everyone Sold the Pop!
$1,000 + Treble Damages is within the realm of possibilities for FNMA Commons.
The price might get so high that they have to do a Forward Split before the SPO occurs.
It's much smaller in scope than some would like to believe.
That information will be revealed during the oral arguments. I would expect a lot of selling in Commons on that day
Market is being generous and giving Commons a chance to catch up.
It's a great opportunity for anyone in Commons to sell and buy Jr. Preferreds now that the ratio has reverted back to the norm (~3.5 JPS:1 Common)
Of course not. Jr. Preferreds are the Fulcrum!
The fulcrum will get equitized soon.
We shall see. She's not even at $3 yet, LOL!
Wake me up if she breaks $7 in the next few years.
$10 Commons!? Wow. Ackman is probably selling after this little pump he created.
What about the promised land of $40+ Commons as per Ackman?
I don't see double-digit Commons without a Reverse Split. Sorry Amigos!
Agreed. JPS to Common Conversion needs to occur in order for the GSEs to be able to raise capital at an attractive level.
Otherwise, I would expect the capital raises to occur at a much lower price than where Commons are currently trading.