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Market View, Bullish
ref, S&P, SMH, $NAA50 and Fundimentals,
S&P is the market gauge and SMH is the market leader.
My bullish view is based on S&P continuation pattern and market fundimentals. Inflation is contained, stocks are undervalued and end to fed rate hikes is near.
SMH is the true leader as most here will agree. It moves so fast that it could drop to $35 with-in the confines of S&P cont' pattern.
DOWNSIDE VIEW;
$NAA50 is at the top of the charts, tells me we are running on fumes. So the upside time-frame will be short. SMH h/s pattern is still a probable. S&P can break support at 1250
lol and good trading
Add me to Bull list
sorry bears, sentiment is bullish based on S&P daily chart continuation pattern (not symmetrical)
SPX view and chart
i have 2 bullish patterns forming on S&P daily chart. I am only concerned if support fails to hold (blue line).
I will be adding 401k at support (1250) or above the symmetrical at 1300, which ever is first.
the second chart is S&P 20 day line, that i would like to see break
SMH weekly report
this is a weekly channel of smh suggesting downside to $35.
I am adding long at $37 based on daily support.
SMH & $SOX holdings
SMH
amd,altr,amkr,adi,amat,atml,brcm,intc,lltc,lsi,mxim,mu,nsm,nvls,sndk,ter,txn,vtss,xlnx
SOX
amd,altr,amat,brcm,fsl-b,ifx,intc,klac,lltc,mrvl,mu,mxim,nsm,nvls,stm,ter,tsm,txn,xlnx
Trading is like flying
i talked to a small-jet pilot yesterday;
One of the lessons he had in school is instrument panel reading. His instructor took him up, triwled round, upside-down and un-level again.
His instructor then told him to open his eyes and read the instrument panel "ONLY". The pilot was confused and some-what dizzy but focused on his instrument panel...instead of looking out the windshield.
So what happened?
well he must have had trust in his instruments and leveled the jet, cause he is still alive today.
The purpose of this message is; believe in your indicators, just be sure you are reading it properly and get those wings to level.
POKERSAM,
i knew ya didn't like that word "bullish" and i will seriously consider your comments at that point. I know you will not steer me wrong (not on purpose)
however-what i learned in the last 3 months, ya make lots of money at the trendlines. The risk is high and the reward is big. The real trick at the line is "prepare to be wrong".
if market conditions look fearful at $37 then long is good, if indicators permit.
SMH report (chart)
except for that halo, this formation is very bullish.
if it breaks up go with it and add long if it drops to $37
the second chart is SBUX from post 19088
QQQQ, for friday (chart)
things got tight again...price target $41.25
Todays orders
long JBHT limit at 23.11, target $25, based on lower trend line
long BA at the close, for a one day pop, target $74 stop at $72
current position is cash
Bravo PS
good job indeed,
there was a couple of us here watching the mornings show,
and thanks to kenwong for the visual
TOF all good
yes ya all be full of crock, every single last one of yas (except chico/nocona) they only speak in numbers.
i'm the only no-crock pot in here
cad...double top break out
i see the ascending t and todays top. but where is the other top?
Pokersam...make money
absolutely i did..the money is good, and your right, it has nothing to do with bearishness.
last year i was down 10% the first month out, this year i stomped out 16% the first month and back down to 10% up.
i say my abilities have highly improved. now and then i succomb, but consistency has been my key.
lol brother
S&P & QQQQ
QQQQ, no real comment, its chugging along with an upside daily macd.
S&P (my market gauge)
is still at the top side of the scale. it has not broken down or up. It is in decision mode. I'm leaning to downside until up is proven.
SMH report
smh surprised me when it exceeded 3% today and closed up 4%. Not one issue in sox is in the red, even mrvl was up nicely.
semis are the true leaders and todays action reflects, this brings more ammo for the bull case,
I suspect an smh runaway price or a pull back and reload. I will reload (long) if indicators permit. Todays upside was too much to re-chase.
on the weekly chart the williams indicator has broke to the up-side. that is a positive and should not be discounted.
PS, inside candles
i see the inside candles on S&P & DOW but the NDX & COMP are outside or above yesterdays candle
Position
ding dong sold too soon, sheeeze
Position change
sell SMH
position is cash
Todays orders SMH & QQQQ
good morning all,
futures indicate a morning rally, lead by the semi's (as it should be) However it will be one that i sell into, until proven otherwise by upside fundimentals.
sell SMH at 37.48 to 37.73 (early morning)
sell QQQQ at 41.50 to 41.80 or upper bollinger band if your indicators favor it
hey texan
ya just had to didn't ya, could not help your-self, right?
ok, thats enough outa you for the next few days.
cad92648 smh with volume
truly appreciate your work on the Q's H/S pattern, good job.
however, this is what i am looking at, with volume, and all shall know soon enough.
SMH daily
SMH, what i'm looking at
1, that it rallies from here, but it leads the way, not the Q's
2, A true bottom on SMH, is after a week of panic selling with the last day being a spikey candle, thats when the semiconductor bottom is in. Then the semis will lead the way back up.
Market view Q's & SMH
QQQQ
a lower trendline has formed on the Q's daily chart and most of todays candle is above mid-bolingers. If we break that line the next numbers are 40.97 with final support 40.10/.30, upside target $42.
SMH is at support, next downside numbers are 36.75 and 36.40 for H/S confirmation
here is my call;
range bound trading is the prevailing method until proven otherwise.
i'm not that worried if Q's break todays trendline, it is the 40.10 that is true support.
Pokersam, forget that last post
sorry, i don't want to know what kind of steaks you're having tonite.
that was nice of me, it will just "start things". and i don't want to be like those that heckel you on green day,
PS, barbecue
whats on the grill tonight?
2X-Be-Me goog
i do not know for sure. The technical take could be apol, goog and joyg which are down heavily. The question is; how much are their NDX weighting?
My personal take on spikes are panic and greed, from emotional traders
QQQQ good-news, bad-news
for bulls
the good news
Q's daily charts forming support trendline, semis are holding
the bad news;
my 2 long signals from yesterday, weekly stoch and weekly macd histo have reverted back to downside trend.
recommendation add long here, prepare to sell, trading range plus support lines are in effect
QQQQ gap closed & spiking
look for a pause then add long, smh is holding
TRADING TOOLS, rev 2
1, RSI(5), enter/exit trade
2, STOCH, support for rsi
3, MACD, to hold current position
4, $NASI and Weekly Chart, for trend bias,
5, Symmetricals and Trendlines enter/exit trades and support for trend bias
Q's
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p89077701418
trix4,1
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p97114952368
Prophet
http://www.prophet.net/
Images
http://www.imageshack.us/
VTO-REPORT
http://www.vtoreport.com/rsi.htm
patterns
http://www.chartpatterns.com/
patterns
http://wongken96815.tripod.com/ChartPatternsEW.pdf
candles
http://www.litwick.com/glossary.html
candles
http://www.americanbulls.com/
Briefing
http://www.briefing.com/
CBOE
http://www.cboe.com/
S&P
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=sp/Page/HomePg&r=1&l=EN&b=10
POKERSAM,
i'm sorry, there was a gnat on your tail, named cad and i was trying to swat it off for you. (that will teach me) I suppose it was bugging me more than it did you. Anyways i think it worked, you have not replied his post.
all good here
Pokersam
don't even bother with it, flash just wants attention.
CaribbeanJim, Scenario #1
could you post your upside scenario, and pls base it on your personal work/outlook.
QQQQ, SMH $ SPX view
QQQQ,
i'm not gonna try to figure it out, Q's indicators are long, daily stoch/macd, daily/weekly &nasi, $NAA50, all up. The 2 new upside signals are weekly stoch and weekly macd histos. Recommendation is long, as far as you can take it, maintain a loose sentiment.
SMH & SPX
I am long smh but my market sentiment is still bearish. Semiconductors are at lower trend lines or support levels and S&P has not broken out. S&P is the market gauge (for me) and SMH should lead the way. Neither one has broken out.
Fundimentals;
I believe markets rally at the end of fed tightening, if so, they last 3-6months then the bottom falls out. I also believe NABE GDP forecast of 4.5% is inflationary (i'm guessing). If all goes according to bull mentality, CarabeanJims market scenario will bear fruit, then the market crashes severely (from inflationary pressures)
Volume is weak
volume does not matter on a regular day but for a rally break-out day, volume should be with strong conviction,
NDX 1700 is the hurdle
BULLS
i believe NDX 1700 is your resistance level. Break that and you're rally is on. Your stoch is trending and the macd crossed over. If i was holding the Q's and Regardless of what all the other indices and indicators are doing, i would take it long as far as i could, until daily indicators turn negative.
SMH
is the leader here (thats where i'm at). On a day like today, the leader should be 1% above the Q's. I'm gonna take the semis for a ride and if there is no gas, i will be the first to know.
lol
Turning Bullish
based on Q's weekly stoch and forecast by the National Association for Business Economics of 4.5 percent could be the catalyst.
However, i am only caustiously bullish, the comments made by NABE is a forecast ONLY, and my best evidence is SMH, which has not broken out of its downside slide.
market call is based on closing price
Position, add long
add SMH 100%, no margin
SPX view & weekly chart
I have more downside views than upside. This is my only true Bull View, SPX weekly.
S&P is forming an undecided range on a grander scale. I have seen this formation (on daily scale) with sbux, boom and countless others. It tells me the big fishes are undecided and need a litle more time to crunch their numbers. It can break either way.
I'm using this view and semiconductors to gauge which way the techs will break-out. In the mean time, the intraday plays are profitable at .01-.03% per day.
NDX channel charts
:o)
these images were drawn using my bull bifocals and to help the cause, all annotations were drawn with bull blue. The link was provided by keith, a known bull advocate.
1, intraday formed an upside symmetrical, so monday will go up,
2, 1mo chart has a downward slope but we just hit support and will be breaking out to upper channel soon, hello 1700
3, 6month chart is close to midline break-out
4, one year chart, is my best evidence yet, the price is at the bottom of channel and nothing but up from here.
http://139.142.147.218/StockChart_ImageOnly.dll?cus=0&co=ask&i_chart=0&inm=5&ind=2&a...
NDX intraday
NDX 1mo
NDX 6mo
NDX 1year