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Also, there's no rule that says all AD companies have to be valued equally. The other companies have clearly done a better job bringing in investors than SNPX has. Maybe that will change, but for now it is what it is.
Cheap shares are good for those that want to buy, not so much for those that want to sell and make a quick buck.
Found this extensive DD, but haven't had the time to properly read through it yet:
https://forums.huaren.us/showtopic.html?topicid=2674429
Good news seems to be that they have enough cash to make it through 2023 without having to raise more. Maybe the additional trials will change that if the cash burn ramps up.
Well that was quick. Wouldn't surprise me if it drops below 8 today.
I'm still convinced this will keep fluctuating between $6-12 until results with the occasional spike above that range before it drops back down again.
I don't see any major institutions on board yet and I doubt retail investors alone can significantly increase the price without those warrants stopping them.
"As of July 1, 2021, we had 6,038,798 outstanding shares of Common Stock issued and outstanding held by approximately 252 stockholders of record."
From the latest S-1/A. This means the undiluted market cap is now at $56 million.
Warrants that have been exercised since June 21st:
- 404,167 Series E Warrants for $8.51 each
- 53,892 Series F Warrants for $6.90 each
Total amount is $3,811,316.
My guess is they have about $34 million in cash now.
Potential upside is indeed huge. I just don't see it blowing up before good results are out.
I know what it was like before the last two readouts and the price didn't blow up then either except for the occasional temporary pump & dump.
Why would the market randomly change its mind now without any new data to justify it?
Again, your price target assumes that results will be positive, even though they have failed to meet primary endpoints twice.
Subgroup analysis looks promising, but that's no guarantee for success.
13G includes the same old institutions loading up on more below market price shares and warrants that they can offload for an immediate profit once the SEC registers them.
Patent portfolio is solid, but that too does not guarantee a positive trial outcome. Neither does launching a new trial.
Is there a lot of potential here? Definitely, but I doubt we'll see any big moves here until results are out. Maybe the occasional pump & dump but I'm sure the real action won't happen until next year.
Two failed trials is the reason.
Your triple digit price target assumes a positive result that hasn't been delivered yet. There is no guarantee that the current trial will be successful, and that risk is baked into the current price, not to mention risk of further dilution.
New patent grant:
https://patents.justia.com/patent/11045447
He's obviously just giving a rough estimate since nobody can know the exact date until the last patient has been enrolled.
Q4 2022 is what I would say. Maybe Q3 if we get the enrollment PR before October this year.
I should mention that the S-1 also includes the updated amount of outstanding shares:
"As of June 21, 2021, we had 5,580,739 outstanding shares of Common Stock"
At $11/share, that means the current undiluted market cap is at about $61 million while the fully diluted market cap is at about $140 million. Remember that the websites get their information from annual and quarterly filings, so they will keep showing the wrong market cap numbers until the next 10Q in August.
Thanks, just added it to the ibox.
Doesn't mean it's effective yet. I'm pretty sure those shares are still locked up.
Whatever it takes to keep the price above $8.51 so those Series E warrants all get exercised.
My guess is the price will drop again once the latest shares & warrants are registered in a few months or so.
"Synaptogenix Announces Live Appearance of its President and CSO on Streaming Financial News Network"
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/synaptogenix-announces-live-appearance-of-its-president-and-cso-on-streaming-financial-news-network-301319374.html
Hopefully the rest of them will soon be exercised too. Should bring in an additional $17 million.
Fully diluted market cap is almost $130 million. Don't forget there are more warrants than outstanding shares.
Websites won't show accurate market cap until next 10Q is out in August.
Found the Benzinga presentation:
Maybe you're right. Let's see what happens when the latest offering is registered and those shares become available for trading.
I just don't see why markets would randomly change their mind about this company unless there are new results out to justify a major price increase. Launching trials for new indications is something that the company keeps mentioning in its press releases, so I'm not sure why that wouldn't already be baked into the price.
The Series E warrants will expire worthless if they aren't exercised within a year, so I would assume that investors want to exercise them before it's too late, and then finance it by selling some of the shares they receive from exercising those warrants.
If I exercise 1000 of those warrants, I will receive 1000 shares and owe the company $8510. If the market price is $10 I can sell 851 of those shares to cover that amount, leaving me with 149 shares.
They can also choose to pay it all in cash instead and keep all their shares, in which case there won't be any additional selling pressure.
Stock price always matches the demand vs supply, so yes, if demand gets bigger relative to supply then the price goes up.
The $8.51 warrants expiring next year should keep the price from rising too high imo.
My guess is we'll fluctuate between $6-12 before results.
New shares haven't been registered yet, so it might be like last time where the price doesn't drop until the effective date.
No, the warrants are included for free. They paid $7.547 to receive one share and one warrant. The warrant has a strike price of $8.51 but they only pay that amount if they choose to exercise the warrant.
The idea is that since they can just buy the same shares at market price, there needs to be a sweetener to make them choose the offering instead, hence the free warrants.
Purchase price is $7.547 for one share and one warrant with $8.51 strike price.
"Synaptogenix Announces $12.5 Million Private Placement"
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/synaptogenix-announces-12-5-million-private-placement-301311536.html
Science looks promising, yes. That's not a guarantee for positive results this time around though.
Let's see what the next 10Q says about the warrants. The company will have to do another offering if those warrants aren't exercised within a year. New results are still more than a year away.
Institutions adding this to their index funds I assume. Nasdaq listing means they qualify for inclusion now.
I don't blame Biogen for getting the most out of their failed trials. What bothers me is seeing US institutions fold so easily under pressure.
People are absolutely right to be angry about their hard-earned tax dollars going into the pockets of Biogen executives. Once Biogen starts running commercials we'll have Alzheimer's patients begging their doctors for a $56,000/year placebo.
Not bad lol
Analyst estimates put peak sales at around $5 billion/year. Let's hope most of that won't be taxpayer money.
Looks like your wish came true. Uplisting is complete and FDA has yet to announce its decision.
I doubt it will affect us much, but I'm still interested in how much it changes their market cap. Should give us another estimate of how much markets value a new AD drug.
"Synaptogenix Announces Approval for Nasdaq Stock Market Listing"
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/synaptogenix-announces-approval-for-nasdaq-stock-market-listing-301306765.html
Medicare & Medicaid costs for AD are already increasing dramatically, and are expected to grow from about $200 billion/year to almost $800 billion/year by 2050.
That is, unless we figure out a way to reverse it by then.
Reading about the patients hoping for an aducanumab approval makes me sad. They deserve an actual cure, not another expensive drug that barely (if at all) slows the decline and extends their suffering.
Happens all the time. Some traders can choose which bid/ask to fill and don't always pick the best offer for various reasons.
Also worth remembering is that a lot of trades are automated. When you add your order, it's being read by algorithms that can automatically change existing orders instantly.
My guess is we'll get news about Biogen/FDA before we get an uplisting.
Should be interesting to see how the industry reacts to that one.
Thanks. Added it to the ibox now.
Quick summary for those that are new:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=159082982
For more detailed information, please check out the links in the ibox.
I'm thinking of adding a list of potential competitors to the ibox but I'm not sure if I have all the details:
Phase 1
Annovis (ANVS) - Posiphen
Phase 2
Athira (ATHA) - ATH-1017
Cassava (SAVA) - Simufilam
Phase 3
Anavex (AVXL) - ANAVEX2-73
Biogen (BIIB) - Aducanumab, BAN2401
Eli Lilly (LLY) - Donanemab
Got any suggestions for what else to add?
Thanks, I agree. It's only one study, but if they're right it sure does not look good for Anavex.
Interesting. Do you have a link to this research? Sounds like pretty bad news for AVXL if it's true.