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Good book cool. But since you are in Houston, I thought you might be at the OTC. Went to the OTC crawfish boil on the UH campus Sunday with one of my old highschool buddies and met some good folks, some of who I had done some energy projects for twenty years ago. Funny how time flies. As for TECO, it won't be long before they fly as well. GLTY
sly rascal you! I managed to steal a few cheapies as well. I really don't understand who would want to sell when the company is loading up with opportunities and getting ready for a real operations run that should produce new wells each month and additional revenue, with the potential for cashflow positive within three or four months. That's a pretty strong picture for a startup company in my opinion.
Agreed cool. Glad you were able to load up. Keep the family happy, it's a lot better around Christmas time when you do. Fortunately for investors, TECO is just about ready to ramp up their drilling in Texas, and Belize should be close behind. The news of success should allow for smiles all around the house, and with all the longs who have withered the negative assaults daily. But a question for you. If TECO hits a couple of wells in Texas and then gets confirmation of their first well in Belize, what do you think the pps might do? After all, at that time it would seem that the footings are in place for stability in the stock value at a higher price than current.
Thanks
So did you sell? Or are you holding your share for the windfall profit you'll make in December?
Great catch allbetson. Great letter from Lee. It really lays out what TECO investors can expect. Yes, for those who question, the company is a few months behind their original schedule they posted last year. However, a lot of the delays were not of their making necessarily. The real picture is that Lee has indicated how TECO management projects their opportunity in Texas, and that their icing on the cake is in Belize. Consider this, if Belize only does as well as management projects for Texas, then the stock could be well positioned over $1. And this by or before yearend. I'd call that opportunity, plus.
allbetson, let's hope WE are both right on next week for Texas drilling. While both of us provide insight into TECO, sometimes the company throws us a curve on their timelines, as you well know. For darn sure, I'm hoping the drilling rig is on its way to west Texas. All posters should keep in mind that's not a quick run. In fact, it is several hundred miles. If they can get the rig there by this weekend, it should be ready for the repairs Monday and possibly then in the field by Wednesday or Thursday. I certainly hope they can at least make that schedule as then they could hit their first well pretty quickly. Belize is probably three weeks away, but when they get it cranking down there, and hit and confirm with a wireline test the first well, and then hit a second well, this baby is going to go from crying to screaming, as in being scared of heights, as in new pps highs. Those who have kept the faith will be nicely rewarded. GLTA
So when are they going to repair the brake on the drill of the small rig?
Gee allbetson, now you are beginning to post what I posted again. I mentioned a week ago that it might be next week for Texas drilling, and seems you kept saying it was going to be this week. Next time you might contact the IR and find out what's going on. Welcome aboard. Perhaps everyone can move in tandem now and really get this thing going. And yep, I knew the delays encountered, last week. And yep, the rig going to Texas does need some repair work before it can begin drilling again. But possibly only a couple of days worth. Minor maintenance. Then we're off to the races.
Possibly best post this month. Good job, oiljob. This stock could soar like the summer temperatures, up, up, and up.
You need to call the IR and get the story.
DTL, How do you figure that? Let's say they make $20M over the next year. And if they have 750M shares out, that equates to about .027 per share. If they did a one for ten reverse, they would have only 75M shares out and income would then be .27 per share. If you took a multiple of 20 times, certainly not uncommon for a new energy company with growth potential, then on the first instance you get a market cap of $400M+ and on the second instance you get a market cap of $400M+. What the difference? The first might give you a share price of .54 and the second might give you a share price of 5.40. Seems pretty even.
allbetson, the small rig does need repairs. Reread the PR from th initial report of oil in Belize. One of the problems was the rig couldn't go down further than the initial 1300'. It was because of equipment problems. I think your two weeks from now is about right in Texas for the rig to be ready. Drilling might even drift into the next week and the first well could take a couple of weeks as it not only has to be located, but then the righ has to be set and everything readied. Remember this is a new well, not a rework. I would expect a report on oil on the first Texas well from the 'new well program' to be announced perhaps in about three to four weeks from now. Just my guess. Having said that, I think from that point, the company can probably drill a new well every two weeks and report them. That might be a little longer, but keep in mind, TECO is almost always behind the timeline curve. Hopefully by the end of June, they could have at least three, possibly four wells completed in this program. And hopefully by then they can have the first well in Belize confirmed with new depth and testing, and a second well drilled and tested, and a third well in a new field drilled and tested. But the latter on Belize is a push. And don't forget the potential for rain as the rainy season is coming to Belize, soon. I don't have a clue what can get done during that season. Perhaps check the records with BNE and see how or if they were successful in drilling in the rainy summer months.
Could have saved your time. I posted that and you disputed it. But at least you got word from the company to verify what I had posted. Good going.
Not exactly Belize Oilwatch. What I said was the new 12 well drilling program had not started. It will start when the rig that was down in Belize gets to west Texas. But it needed some repairs as has been mentioned, and the shipping point was probably back to Mobile, which was where it was shipped to Belize from. Once back it must clear customs, which doesn't happen quickly. Then it must get it's repairs done and get to west Texas. I've already posted my best guess and it's from simply putting a reasonable timeline on what has to happen. Hopefully it will be in west Texas in a couple of weeks, ready for drilling. The company has already reported that there is activity of rework going on in west Texas on other wells. Obviously they would have had to have a crew, right? If you would look at what is probably going on, instead of trying to pick apart everything, you might get a better picture of what TECO is doing. Unlike some who have nothing better to do than post doubts, TECO management and field operations continue to move it forward positively each day and improve investor potential.
So Belize Oilwatch, how do you know they are not running one drill crew? Are you an insider who is part of the operations team? That kind of info should only be known by company personnel, including management. For you to post it must mean you are an insider, and thus you are posting privileged information. Or are you just posting garbage that you are making up? After all, you made a statement reflecting on the company. Who knows, they may be using a drill crew on one of their workover sites. Ya think?
Running1, I'm not sure where you got info that TECO would be drilling new wells in Texas this week. The rig only returned from Belize this week and I'm guessing it will have to clear customs, which if it went to Mobile, which is where it was shipped from to Belize, so expect it to be shipped back there as well, it could take two or three days to clear. From there, the company has mentioned it will need some repairs and possibly some refitting of some kind and expect that to take a few days. My guess is that the rig might make it to west Texas sometime late next week, with drilling probably the following week. But that's a guess on my part from what has been mentioned by others. Keep in mind this comment I posted before. If Treaty mentions it will be next week, add a few days. Their history is indicating usually a little more time to take for everything. I'm not knocking management, sometimes things come up unexpectedly and business just takes longer to do things today than it did a few years back. Keep your eye on May 10 or even May 15 or 16 for Texas drilling. My guess only. As for Belize, probably about the same time frame for their redrilling of the first well and possibly the wireline test confirmation that we have all waited for.
Running, I understand your concern. And it's your money at play. While it is no consolation to you, I also have a large number of shares. So, when the pps drops even .01, I'm down significantly. However, I have read and understand the situation TECO is in both in Texas and Belize. The position is kinda like a football game and we're starting the second quarter and already down ten points. Somewhat of an uphill battle, but the ground work has been laid. Some plays are working. Now's the time to refine everything and it seems like management now has the ball and offensively is ready to move. My guess is that we could see news sometime in the next two weeks on the resumption of drilling of the new well program in Texas. And I would say by three weeks we should see the resumption of drilling in Belize. Supposedly someone posted that they are going to redrill the first well down to 4000'. And someone posted they are looking for a second oil zone somewhere below 3000'. If they do find a second zone of even similar features as the first, ie., 6,000,000 bbls or so, then the stock is going to solidly head north of .05 and possibly back to .10 if the wireline tests confirm it. This should all take place within probably the next four weeks. Now is not the time to leave the game before even halftime, but rather see if success comes our way in four weeks. If so, we are off to the races and everything I posted earlier will come to pass. And then this will be just a forgotten episode as there is so much more potential for TECO that the first quarter of the first game will be lost in history.
In my opinion, the 10K is not going to be reflective of what the company is preparing to do in the near future. Kinda like building a hotel. First acquire land (lease concessions for TECO). Then engineer plans (field evaluation for TECO). Then get equipment for clearing and construction (oilfield equipment, drilling rig, trucks, pipe, etc for TECO). Then begin construction (drilling for TECO). That all takes time and as you can read, does not bring in revenue, but it does add to the value of the company as the asset is growing. That's where TECO is, and will be even through the first quarter this year, and it may not be until you see the second quarter 2012 10Q, which is due about end of July before you see any real activity in revenue generation. By that time, TECO should have completed the first well in Belize, and the second well in Belize, and possibly even begun the third well in Belize at their second reservoir site. And in Texas, they should have about six or seven wells completed and hopefully have the production up to about 200 bbls per day which should make them more than cashflow positive. Now, at that time, that will make for a good report. And the pps could easily pop to .25. And it's only about 100 days away.
Perhaps Belize Oilman could run for the CEO position if it opens up. Of course some of his ideas would have cost the company three or four times what it will ultimately cost them. But who knows?
You might be MightyRight Mac. Good catch.
Actually akphidelt, the filing should be edgarized and filed by 4PM CDT. That makes it one hour after the market close. However, I haven't checked to see if they have filed. Remember that the company is not on the BB, but rather on the QB. I do not know the regs for that exchange's filings of 10Q's or 10K's.
makeminecountry, I've also been in for about 2.5 years. We might now be considered TECO old-timers. While it has taken longer than I had hoped, it appears that TECO is now primed to get their business plan in full swing and move the investor opportunity forward. Within the next three weeks they should be able to complete cleanup of the first Belize well and get the wireline completed. If that test confirms one 50' payzone, then the pps firms and moves up. If they then drill and hit that payzone in the second well, and even are fortunate to find a second payzone, then the pps really climbs. If the timeline for this info coincides with a successful drilling of the first two wells in west Texas, and they do infact produce 20bbls per day each, then the pps is off to the races, and I mean north of .20 to .25 or more. But at that point, if the company is gaining some national recognition, then the pps could be even higher than that. All in all, your patience and mine should be rewarded, and pretty soon now. Keep the faith. Perhaps we can all head to Belize for an oil rub and cold beer.
Good idea Cool. You might want to keep in mind that the wireline test completion could finally validate Treaty's Belize numbers, and the stock could take off again. Don't know when the test will resume, but it could be next week. And the first well in Texas could begin next week. So, timing is critical. I've picked up a few hundred thousand more while the price is right.
Bet you a beer in Belize. You can pick the TECO well site.
dloggold, I don't think so. And yes, April is in the second quarter so you may indeed be considering the second quarter. But again, I don't think Treaty will be cashflow positive this quarter. For them to be cahflow positive, with oil at about $100, they will probably need to be producing about 85-100 bbls per day for the quarter. And that's not probable at this time. Now, as for the third quarter, they may very well make it happen then. Oh, someone might think they could get to cashflow, but business is always in the habit of popping up with unexpected expenses and that's why I think they will need pretty close to 100 bbls per day. That gives them about $300k per month and that might cover them. They're incurring more expenses as the operations reach a higher level each quarter. Remember, they just signed a consulting agreement for Belize that costs some pretty good money. And the sale of oil from production in Belize is not going to hit before the third quarter. While I'm an absolute long term positive on this stock, I'm also beginning to see a pattern of just about everything taking twice as long to get done. However, to management's credit, it does get done. But this is JMO.
allbetson, How do you know the rig from Belize got to Texas two weeks ago? Are you an insider? It was not posted anywhere on the website, nor facebook, or anywhere else that I can find. And actually, from info from the company, it was supposed to leave Belize when the wireline truck got down there, and it was to come back on the return trip. Seems to me like it may be back by now, but not two weeks ago. Did you mispost the information?
Bull, please post the link to the video upload. Thanks.
dloggold, the registration of shares doesn't mean the owner is going to sell them at any specific time. What it does mean is that the owner has held them for a specific time, and in Gwynn's case, one year as he is an officer and director, and that he can then place them into his market account which provides him with liquidity for the shares and adds the market value to his stock account. Nothing new about that. Check Michael Dell or Bill Gates or any other company's officers who have shares and they do it all the time.
MightyMac, you are joking, right? That kind of loan is pretty typical for small cap energy companies who are looking to protect their investors from dilution. The company issued no new shares, so no dilution to shareholders. It's a win, win if all goes well for the company and the lender and the investors. The investors get the benefit of more well opportunities without dilution. But I bet you already knew that, didn't you?
Bull didn't elaborate as to whether tomorrow meant the truck will clear customs tomorrow, or that the wireline test will be tomorrow. Seems like the last post from him was they would clear customs in two hours or so. But, you never know about that issue. As for any messages, he still needs to be very careful. Perhaps just a message of "test was successfully completed" would tell us the previous report is confirmed. And sure, there are a thousand other words but investors would get the picture. The main thing is confirmation and not to destroy the mended fence that the company apparently has with the GOB. Don't want to embarass those folks as other well permits are in the mill and we need the government assistance for approval for all of the Treaty operations. JMO.
Mad, it might be better if Bull only is a watcher, and not a reporter. Remember, the GOB wants to approve any news regarding TECO. Since the company already encountered a problem, it might be wise for Bull not to report anything or post anything until the company has produced a PR that the GOB can approve and then put out the PR for same. Otherwise, the company could find itself in a problematic situation again, and after all, they still need to get the second well drilled, and then continue their initial 10 well program. I would sure hate to see a halt in the operation process for not following the GOB protocol. Don't you think? Treaty now has a lot of capital vested in Belize, let's make it count without any more glitches.
If the wireline truck can get through customs today, or at least hopefully by tomorrow, then it can be in the field by perhaps Tuesday or Wednesday. While it takes only a few hours for the testing, the operator may want to run some initial tests on a test situation first to ensure that all the equipment is in the best working order so that they won't have any slip ups on testing the Treaty well. If they can get that done by wednesday, then remember the GOB has to approve the test and then approve the PR that Treaty wants to put out. That could take a couple more days and drive the PR date into next week. JMO.
It is my understanding that the wireline truck and equipment needs to clear customs on Monday, and if so, could be in the field Tuesday. Keep in mind, the GOB customs sometimes takes a little longer than we would think, so if it's tuesday that they get the truck out of customs, don't panic. The real game is just around the corner. Here's my picture of the games.
Final men's two Monday
Final women's two Tuesday
Final proof of Belize oil for TECO Wednesday. (and hope for sooner) but remember, the GOB must approve any news release for TECO first and they might take a couple of days to do that.
They may be having a problem getting the acknowledgements from the creditors which the auditors need to certify. But, there may be other reasons as well. Next week could be interesting, but I'm still thinking the week after Easter will be a key info week for TECO. And by that time, the Texas drilling program should be underway. I'm hoping that they can get the first two permitted Texas wells drilled successfully and the first well in Belize confirmed and the second drilled in April. Then in May we could be getting news weekly on a new well in either Belize or Texas. We are close to game time, for both the Final Four and TECO.
There may be a nice reason for the delay in the 10K filing. Possibly sometime next week the wirline testing will have been done and a PR approved, which details could then also become a part of the 10K filing as part of the future for TECO. I'm sure longs will wish for a positive confirmation of what was originally PR'd, and perhaps that could ignite a rally in the pps which most would appreciate. In the meantime, fluff up the cushions on the sofa, ice down some brewskis and get ready for the Final Four. Could be some of the best games around, well, except for TECO.
Thanks yogo. If that is the cost, then for sure capital can be used for something better, like more drilling. And we should see some of that soon. Luck to ya.
TECO Management Question: OK, we now have wireline testing capacity in Belize, what do we have in west Texas to provide the same needed testing? Perhaps I missed it, but I have not read or heard if we have wireline capability in west Texas, or do we have to contract it out? Answers please.... Thanks
Wow. Tiny Treaty now has it's own roving investor reporter. Can anyone tell me what other smallcap company has their own reporter? But we do, and that's no Bull. Oops, it is Bull. But you get the picture. Get'em Bull. Bring home some good news.
dloggold, if they hit 46 API crude we're in business. 46 oil as some probably know is almost diesel, and sells for a premium to the crude posted prices, maybe about 110% of posted, sometimes more. Now we're talking.
allbetson, you might recall that the drilling rig in Belize that is headed to west Texas has to be loaded on the truck that is taking the wireline truck down to Belize. So, jmo, but the Belize wireline data may be late next week as it will have to be approved by the GOB before any statement can go out from Treaty, and the drilling rig going to the Texas fields needed some maintenance so I would not expect that rig in action for at least two weeks from now, and it may take about a week for the first well to be drilled, so perhaps some news on that front in about three or four weeks to allow time for a week or so back to Texas, a week for maintenance, and a week for drilling with news hitting the following week. But again, jmo. At least any news on the Texas front doesn't have to be approved by any third parties.