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I think it's going to be a fluff conference call with just the facts about the financial situation and little substance about any of the clinical programs, etc., which is usually the way these calls have gone recently.
Not sure that I can conclude that, the management has been so bad that it's hard to know what the science might be worth if the company had been handled better for the last year+.
I don't disagree, just really sad if they have to sell more shares less than 6 months after another offering. You would think underwriters would not be terribly interested in a second offering in less than a year. If they offer 10M shares it will probably net them around $10M, or 2 months worth of time.
Volume is relatively heavy today and at least it's not falling off a cliff, but nothing to write home about either.
It is arbitrary, but the clock is definitely running out. I feel like this is very close to a death spiral already, if something doesn't change soon then I think there may be no way out, or at least no good way out. I would also begin to wonder if there is any deal to be had, Tony didn't come up with one and had to go to the last resort of raising a measly $18M through a new offering. They are very close to the point where they can't even realistically raise enough money to continue operations for a reasonable amount of time. I don't know, the time frame is arbitrary, but no doubt time is running short.
Actually, in the last 1.5 weeks this has hit a ceiling near ~1.88 at least 5 or 6 times, not very encouraging. It has gotten nowhere near the recent high of ~2.05 hit a few weeks ago. Seriously beginning to wonder if this company is past the point of no return, and will believe it much more if something significant doesn't happen in the next 30 days.
Dew, do you think the NEON IPO is a positive event for ADXS, negative, or neutral? Does it validate what they are doing, or are they simply a competitor with a possible better solution?
You are right on, all of this great news is not so great if they won't even be able to get a product out the door without massive dilution, or at all if they just simply can't execute. And that's why I don't believe any of these manipulation ideas, plain and simple the stock won't move unless the market believes the company can get a product to the end zone, it has been that way for nearly a year now, or more.
Pretty painful to see it sit and do nothing (or more likely down) all week, meanwhile the overall biotech market was strong.
What's not right is you're being way too optimistic about the value of the EMA approval or even the recent results, the existential risk (or effectively the ridiculous dilution risk) trumps everything else.
I think we need an agreement by the beginning of the summer - end of June.
Know what? I'm not expecting anything exciting out of either ASCO or the conference call.
Not really thrilled to see it bounce off of 1.88 for 4 days in a row.
I think you're placing way too much value on AXAL/EMA, what kind of sales are you assuming to get to a $4B valuation?
Yeah, but completely speculation.
I agree, not clear they really need a CFO right now, better to save the money.
I sure hope they aren't trying to do something like this. They can't afford to wait for anything.
Yes, I would agree $2.5B would be highly unexpected, right now.
Well "soon" is almost another month until it's 3 months. They have said all along it takes 8 weeks to generate the vaccine from an enrolled patient, that might even be a bit aggressive, so I'm figuring a couple to a few weeks to enroll a patient, 8-10 weeks to generate the vaccine, so first dosing will probably be mid to late June. If it's earlier, great.
I don't think NEO is delayed (yet) based on what we have seen, the first dosing has always been much more likely to be in June, given that patient recruiting did not start until later in March.
Amazing how the gains just evaporate almost every day.
Although the hold was announced at the same time as earnings, I'm afraid the market was more likely reacting to the continued high cash burn rate. That's why I don't expect much of anything when/if the hold is lifted.
Looks like we are back to the old up in the morning, down in the afternoon pattern. Volume is still pretty anemic this week.
Although I consider the pps low, I'm not so sure that it's comical, when you consider there is at least a substantial risk that they run out of money or have to ponder a ridiculous dilution if they don't get EMA approval. There are a lot of other good things that could happen in the meantime, but until some of them actually happen, there are some real risks.
Fair enough, I agree compassionate use is a reasonable alternative, and reform there to make it faster, easier, would be great.
The other problem is that insurance probably won't pay for anything done through right to try, so there would be very little revenue available.
However, I disagree with you about the FDA, they don't always make the best decisions, and there should be some way for individuals to get around them when necessary and reasonable.
Looks like the sellers are back this afternoon, although at least for the moment it's holding a small gain.
Still 10% below recent highs, nothing to be too excited about yet. Personally, I am surprised it's up today, and the low volume is not inspiring much confidence.
Volume is extremely low today, scary.
Although if that's true, why the incentive for KB to find $20M more in funding?
It would be great to believe that the hold has somehow explained no cash deals, but then how do we explain no deals for the 8 months before that? I think it's unlikely the hold is affecting any deals.
All fair points, I agree. It definitely has been tough to stick it out here, even now we are down 3 out of the last 4 days, kind of the way it has been for a while.
Unfortunately, most of this is true. They may need a number of these employees for research and to manage the ongoing clinical trials, etc., but there is almost no doubt they could get by with fewer.
Now down 15% from the high on Tuesday, only good news is that it's still up 10% from recent lows.
The intraday swing is just amazing, now nearly 10% today.
Downturn today is a little bit disappointing, now a swing of 0.12 from high to low today, and down 10% from the high on Tuesday.
Yes, but I appreciate hovacre's more detailed analysis.
Are you saying the full results might be presented at the conference, or later?
So what do you think?
I had hoped for better today, but a selloff is not surprising given the run up over the last few days.