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Bullwinkle, I suspect a flaw in the logic of your technical analysis.
You say the market is going to take a huge dive if a certain single event does or does not take place on or until June 8th, but will a bearish sentiment from technical analysis hold true even if market fundamentals continue to appear strong? The market cannot make a huge dive like that if the basic economic fundamentals do not agree with it. TA does not control everything.
I think using TA for long term predictions without regard to fundamentals is as foolish as using TA for intraday trading without regard to semi-random price fluctuations. It may work some of the time, but the overall risk/reward is not respectable.
You're kidding, right?
The market has been selling off for the last month because of fear of rate hikes and you're saying we'll rally if Greenspan goes ahead and raises rates?
That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
I have been interested in researching such businesses and perhaps starting one. Do you charge people to hear your ideas or something? Do you franchise your businesses to other home based business people? How does it work?
Hello, glry2Gd, It says in your profile that you're a "Home Based Business Consultant." I was wondering, what is that?
I have a suggestion on how to curb spammers.
Let people sign up and post right away, do away with the email verification and all that. But make a script that reads the first (or first 3) post(s) and if there is a hyperlink in the first post or maybe the phrase "www.,"".com," ".net," etc, the system will automatically suspend or "quarantine" that member until you can verify that it's not a spammer.
That is pure genius.
That is exactly what my research has indicated.
You are a genius.
Why would they rally, you'd think everyone would be depressed.
I only watch CNBC for Becky Quick anyway.
It has nothing to do with $40 oil?
There was a run up in crude oil prices in the late nineties and the inflated prices did not hold. The same will happen here. Do you really expect oil prices to sustain? I do not. This is clearly a temporary spike in prices.
With credibility hits in Iraq perhaps impacting the Presidential election
I doubt that effects the market in any way.
how you know that that is what has moved things around.
If you think I'm wrong, feel free to suggest something else.
I still fail to see the point you were trying to make besides the fact that you don't believe the media when they conclude the market is weakening because of interest rates.
Not sure if I buy what his indicator is selling.
From the indicators I monitor, my current assessment of the market direction is moderately bullish. There is a "hysteria" being made about interest rates and it's unfounded.
Are you saying the market is at a top...or bottom? Bottom I would assume.
jra2, I apologize, I forgot completely about your question.
I began to write a response the day it was written and was interrupted.
Since I do not follow either of the stocks you mentioned, I cannot give you a mid or long term assessment. However, as for short term, I would rather be short on both of those issues than long.
My motto in trading is, "I do not trade stocks, I trade situations." Since neither of the stocks you mentioned fit any situation that is familiar to my experience, I am not able to have a sound opinion on either. When examining those stocks, the only thing that comes to mind is a question mark. Sorry.
Thank You.
Zeev, Do you agree that the negative emphasis on interest rates the market has been experiencing is unfounded and perhaps the market is overreacting? The market has ignored strong earnings and focused on interest rates and high oil prices, which we all know is cyclical and will soon fall back to normal levels.
I'm comparing this market to when Saddam Hussein was caught, and the markets rallied, and then later fell because the market knew that would not have a significant or even noticeable effect on anything market related - it was more of an "intra-day fad."
Is the market behaving in a bearish fashion (instead of bullish in Saddam's case) because of an irrational or overemphasis on high oil prices and interest rates? Will the market then realize it missed out on strong earnings? I also heard higher interest rates will boast earnings in many industries (not sure if that's correct), which the market is obviously ignoring.
Oh I do short, and I use the same philosophy on that end of the spectrum as well.
However, Zeev is a different trader than I. He daytrades. My method is comparable to swing trading. I may hold a stock for several weeks. Everything operates in cycles you know.
...Now if you'll excuse me, I have nickles to chase. <g>
I'm not looking for a major buying spree, simply a short term rebound because of oversold conditions. It happens in every market. Even during the great bear markets of 2001 and 2002 I found rebounds large enough to create short term trading opportunities on the long side - their occurrences were just further spread apart than what we've seen recently. If the Nasdaq can rally just 5%, I can find stocks that will in turn rally 10%. Maybe it will take a few more weeks, but my opportunity will come, just as it always has.
One of these days
Yes, "one of these days," but until then, I will continue to profit from the rebounds. ;)
I find it interesting that everytime the market rallies, people become bullish, but whenever it falls, they become bearish. Shouldn't it be the opposite? When markets fall like this, I can't help but lick my chops (just a figure of speach) waiting for the inevitable rebound.
Are you still awake? You don't buy until the market asks you to. (Wait for confirmation of rebound).
Was I the only one who didn't see much strength in the market yesterday? Probably 35 - 40% of the DOW 30 closed down. I'm not saying I predicted today's fall, but I suspected it.
Huh? My name is not Ashley.
I agree. I will not participate in this market until the rebound is confirmed. Today's rally just doesn't look as strong as I'd like to see it.
The intraday chart is arched too high, too early, we may close barely positive.
Yep Zeev, The short term rebound is coming...it always does.
Forgive my pre-historic method of market analysis, but the Nasdaq clearly rallied back from intra-day sell offs:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^IXIC&t=1d
On weak trading days you'll see a relentless downward sell off, without any significant combacks in buying. Any fool can clearly see the bargain hunters were out today.
Everybody and their brother thinks we bounce from here
This wasn't a broad and relentless sell off. I saw strength in the market today, which usually indicates we're close to a short term market bottom.
Have you ever heard of the "contrarian theory" of the "contrarian theory"? <g>
That could indicate a rally. But it could also indicate the opposite. If the markets continue to have little confidence in stocks, the stocks which have recently made small rallies would be due for a sell off.
So those stocks are either indicating a rally, or providing the market with more things to sell off.
We are going to rally...eventually.
The market just needs to find it's footing. Give it a few days.
You know what would be interesting?
To create a chart or meter of sort that would tell average percentage each of the Dow 30 is trading at compared to its 20, 65, 100 day, and 52 week lows....or highs.
I'm going to write that down in my trading idea pad. I intend to try that. I will let the board know about it when it's finished.
Both gas and real estate prices are going to cool off by this fall. Gas is simply in a bubble like it was two years ago, as is real estate because of low interest rates.
If I remember correctly, the caps lock button is to your left.
I am comfortable with Zeev's board. I wouldn't want to start a board and it not become active. However, if someone else were to start the board, I would gladly assist in ideas, activity, and research.
Also, my board "Developing Trading Strategies" is merely a personal log book for my own research. It is not meant for public discussion or a trading room.
I would be glad to help. What kind of help is needed?
For that long? Whew. You must be rich. <g>
Thanks Zeev. Saved me a lot of time, I was going to chart the darn thing myself if I couldn't find one. You said you followed new highs and lows, so I figured you knew. Thanks.
Yes there were. I'm not talking about major selloffs or crashes. There were tradable selloffs that left opportunities before the next rebound came.
I find it quite incredulous that conservatives like yourself have absolutely no respect for the Armed Services.
Both parties say that about each other. Nothing new.
My opinion is, anyone who is not comfortable trading on their own with real money, should not be doing it at all.
If they are learning and want to test their knowledge with the help of people like Zeev, they should then use fictional online accounts to do so.
The rally may start the Monday after next. Next week the market wil trend lower. It seems the board has already made up it's mind on that. <g>
However, like I have insisted several times, in every market, there are rebounds from sell offs. I am currently looking at a Heikin-Ashi candle stick chart for the Nasdaq, and in the past year, never has there not been a significant rally each month. And likewise, never has there not been a sell off. A lot happens in a month.
I think we'll bottom out just below 1900 next week. I am currently prospecting potential candidates for long postitions when the time is right.
Zeev mentioned something about a significantly high number of new lows in the markets. Are we getting close? We'll see.
Zeev, do you know of a charting service that charts the amount of lows in a given exchange. If you do not, do you think this would be of any help?
I am thinking about documenting lows for exchanges and charting them on a spreadsheet.
Zeev, is it true that you don't short stocks?