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OT: Can one of the smart folks on this board help me out with a question?
I'm contemplating moving some cash into municipal bond funds. Was looking at NMD, but it fell 9% today. Is there a rational reason for this drop?
Forgive me if this is a dumb question, and I know it's completely off topic. Definitely know more about biotechs than munis.
Am I hearing things, or did our beloved leader say that "short sellers will be persecuted"? Is tarring and feathering next?
OT: S&P says pressure building on U.S. "AAA" rating
Wed Sep 17, 2008 5:29pm EDT
By Walden Siew
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Pressure is building on the pristine "AAA" rating of the United States after a federal bailout of American International Group Inc, the chairman of Standard & Poor's sovereign ratings committee said on Wednesday.
The $85 billion bailout of AIG on Tuesday by the U.S. Federal Reserve "has weakened the fiscal profile of the United States," S&P's John Chambers told Reuters in an interview.
"Lack of a pro-active stance could have resulted in further financial stress and put pressure on the U.S. triple-A rating," Chambers said. "There's no God-given gift of a 'AAA' rating, and the U.S. has to earn it like everyone else."
The cost of insuring 10-year U.S. Treasury debt against default rose on Wednesday to a record high, a day after the government rescued insurer AIG with an $85 billion loan. At one time, AIG was the world's largest insurer, ranked by market value. At midday on Wednesday, AIG's stock was down 33 percent at $2.50 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Ten-year credit default swaps, or CDS, on Treasury debt widened 3 basis points to 26 basis points, according to data from CMA DataVision. This means it costs $26,000 per year to insure $10 million of U.S. Treasury debt against default.
Five-year credit default swaps on Treasury debt were steady at 21.5 basis points. That compares to 9.8 basis points on German 5-year CDS and 13.2 basis points on German 10-year CDS, CMA said.
Earlier this month, S&P affirmed the "AAA" sovereign rating of the United States, noting risks to the U.S. credit profile, including the deteriorating credit profiles for most U.S. financial institutions over the past 12 months, S&P said in a September 3 statement.
AIG BAILOUT 'WITHOUT PRECEDENT'
Potential upfront costs to the government of maintaining financial stability could reach 24 percent of gross domestic product in the case of a "deep and prolonged recession," the S&P report said.
On Wednesday, Chambers compared the U.S. rating to a lobster cooking in a pot of cold water.
"The lobster is still in the 'AAA' pot and still moving," Chambers said. "The heat is turning up, but the water is still 'AAA' stable."
Chambers also called the AIG bailout "a signal event without precedent," adding: "This will be case studied for decades to come."
Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings also have top ratings and "stable" outlooks for the United States.
"The federal government's debt ratios still look comfortable, and the amounts involved in the case of AIG are small, despite their large absolute amount, in comparison to federal government's already outstanding debt of more than $5 trillion," Moody's analyst Steven Hess said in an e-mail.
Hess said loans from the Fed are not on the federal government's balance sheet.
"Ultimately, they could become so, but that depends on the performance of AIG in the next two years," he said.
In a Moody's report on September 9, the rating agency said:
"As an advanced economy with almost no foreign currency debt -- and with the ability to continue to borrow in its own currency -- the U.S. ratings face little threat in the foreseeable future."
Fitch analysts didn't immediately return phone calls seeking comment.
(Editing by Jan Paschal and Chizu Nomiyama)
Ouch!
Normally I wouldn't do this, but do you think HPT/Axis has an agenda?
http://www.hptaxis.com/
The TSBME has scheduled a hearing for September or October to revoke my medical license. Unfortunately although not surprisingly, my concern for the problem of hypogonadism has been at the greatest professional risk. I will need to justify my prescribing practice or I soon will be without my professional medical license. Headstrong and stubborn I wish to either vindicate myself or be proven wrong.
Thank you!
Peace
Thanks Dew. I regularly use CDER as a resource, but, as might be expected, they have things organized to maximize the difficulty in retrieving information.
I was looking for a simple regulatory history by agent. I can reconstruct this information by doing the appropriate searches on CDER, but you have to open a bunch of PDFs and it's generally a royal pain in the ass.
Does anyone know where I can find the regulatory history of various drugs? The CDER website is a mess.
Seems like there should be something online that lists the regulatory history of individual drugs.
Specifically, I'm looking for the regulatory history of various statins.
Yes
It took me well over 100 trades and several months to accumulate VRUS when it was trading <5000 shares/day.
Just something you have to live with. It only took me 3 trades to dump it all, though
You can also consider hiding the true size of your order. E*Trade allows you to do this, not sure about other brokerages.
Alesco Financial Inc. Announces First Quarter 2008 Financial Results
Good news. Hopefully I'll have a RAS-like experience tomorrow.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080506/nytu126.html?.v=101
I have a question--since when did Seeking Alpha become newsworthy enough to list in Yahoo under "news?" I just wasted 3 minutes of my life reading an article by a retired principal.
>So when is it time for round 2 on VRUS<
Actually, I have stopped paying attention to VRUS from an investment standpoint because, as of about 3 weeks ago, I'm working professionally on HCV-related stuff.
I'm building a list of potentially interesting biotechs. But I'm not jumping in with both feet--all I've done is take my high-yield portfolio off the DRIP, and I'm using that money (plus whatever I put in from my job) to buy biotechs again.
So far I've been building another position in RPRX, and I've bought a significant amount of BVF.
Because conventional treatment for hepatitis C is not particularly effective, while HIV patients have a broad range of effective treatment options.
After figuring out that I'm really a much better biotech investor than a high-yield investor, I started to build yet another position in RPRX today.
I'm not going to rehash the arguments for Proellex, they've been beaten to death both here and elsewhere.
Let's hear it for round 3!
BVF
Surprised that nobody posted this news. Apparently BVF Melnyk made similar threats several years ago, and nothing came of it. So take this with a grain of salt.
Biovail Founder May Seek Changes at Co.
Thursday February 28, 4:32 pm ET
Biovail Corp.'s Founder Eugene Melnyk May Propose Buyout, Seek Board Changes or Sell Stake
NEW YORK (AP) -- The founder and largest shareholder of Canadian drug maker Biovail Corp. said Thursday he may propose a possible buyout of the company, sell his stake to a third party or seek changes on the board in an effort to enhance shareholder value.
In a letter sent to the company's board and filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Eugene Melnyk said he is saddened by the company's decline under current management. Melnyk said he previously expressed his dissatisfaction with the company's direction to the chairman and lead director and requested that they consider various actions to increase shareholder value, but that he has not received an appropriate response.
"The corporate governance initiative I helped design and then so vigilantly enforced should have taken Biovail to a whole new level of excellence, but current management fails to properly effectuate that initiative," Melnyk wrote.
Melnyk, who owns 18.8 million shares, or an 11.6 percent stake in the company, said he believes many others share his concerns.
Over the past several years, the company has been entangled in patent challenges and become the subject of SEC regulatory probes.
Biovail shares jumped 80 cents, or 5.8 percent, to close at $14.72. Shares have traded between $11.79 and $26.48 in the past 12 months.
Thanks DoA--I'm watching IWA. Impressive yield, stable business.
I think the market has a ways to go before it reaches bottom; I'm keeping a significant amount of powder dry. For the income investor, I can hardly think of a better opportunity than the next 6 months represent.
Portfolio
Up 4.15% thus far this year (excluding dividends). Not an impressive return, but:
Beating the Dow by 8.5 percentage points
Beating the S&P 500 by 10 percentage points
Beating Nasdaq composite by 14.4 percentage points
…and up today
Aggregate yield is about 15-16%. The yield is this high because I went on a major shopping spree in late January. It's skewed up in part by my positions in Canroys, of which I bought a ton when they were severely depressed, as well as a 34.9% RC note.
AAV
AINV
ARCC
BFK
BGF
BVF
CVP
FLY
IAF
IFN
MIC
ONAV
PGH
PWE
ARCC misses by .01 (pretty impressive given economic conditions).
Stock is down ~4.0%, might represent an opportunity to buy. Yield is around 12.5%.
From a spam. Which fund is this? I'm guessing KF.
Sorry for the crappy formatting.
High Yields -- This fund's 22.1% average five-year dividend yield is one of the highest available on the market.
*
Growing Dividend Payments -- Our "Income Security of the Month" has paid regular dividends like clockwork since its inception in 1984. And thanks to outstanding growth in its core portfolio holdings, the fund's dividend payments have jumped an average of +35.9% per year over the past five years alone. In 2006, this fund paid $7.12 per share in dividends, and in 2007 that figure jumped to an astounding $15.94 per share.
*
Solid Track Record -- The downside to most funds that pay big distributions is often slow growth. However, the good news is that our "Income Security of the Month" is growing at a solid clip. The fund has returned an average of +31.5% per year over the past three years, and +16.1% annually since inception.
*
Discounted Share Price -- Many foreign funds are generating record returns, but only a handful are still trading at a discount to their net asset value (NAV). Our "Income Security of the Month" is one of those rare undiscovered gems. The fund is now trading at a 4.4% discount to the value of its assets. That means you can scoop up a dollar's worth of portfolio securities for less than 96 cents -- one of the best bargains on Wall Street!
*
Diversified Portfolio -- The fund profits from a basket of nearly 50 different stocks that operate in a wide variety of industries. This helps smooth out the fund's annual returns, allowing our "Income Security of the Month" to deliver stable dividends in almost any environment.
*
Exclusive International Opportunity -- Our "Income Security of the Month" invests in a fast-growing overseas market that doesn't get much exposure in the mainstream financial press. As a result, the nation is still largely untapped by foreign investors. Not surprisingly, the country's stocks are among the most undervalued in the developed world, sporting an average P/E multiple that is 30% lower than U.S. stocks (as measured by the S&P 500).
*
Easy to Buy and Sell -- Because it trades right here on the NYSE, this foreign fund can be bought and sold throughout the day just as easily as a regular U.S. common stock. In addition, you won't be burdened with front/back-end loads or minimum investment requirements -- you can purchase shares in this fund for as little as $50, and you can buy or sell the fund whenever you choose.
*
Low Expense Ratio -- With a bargain-basement expense ratio of just 0.96%, our "Income Security of the Month" is one of the highest-yielding, lowest-cost funds around.
*
DRIP Plan Available -- This fund's dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP) lets you automatically reinvest your dividends at no extra charge, helping you compound your returns over time.
*
Reduced 15% Tax Rate -- Last year, the vast majority of the fund's $15.94 distribution qualified for the reduced 15% tax rate. That makes the fund ideal for taxable accounts and keeps its after-tax yield extremely high.
High-yield index
I haven't come across one yet, so I'm thinking of creating my own. Here are the parameters I'm thinking about.
1) Trades on major US exchange
2) Yield >7.5%
3) Market cap >$500 million
4) Share price >$5
5) Payout ratio <100% (I don't want to include companies and funds like BIF that are essentially high-priced capital return mechanisms)
The payout ratio is the data point that will be a pain to calculate every quarter.
Anyone want to provide input?
I'm actually buying ONAV right now. I don't understand why it's going down, but since I'm buying in small aliquots I don't mind at all.
IAF and other stuff
Anyone interested in diversifying with a high-yielding Australian closed-end fund? I picked this up in the sub-15 range, but it is still yielding >8% even at the current $17 level.
Also (not that anyone reads this) but has anyone investigated EverBank’s Icelandic 3-month CDs? They’re paying close to 10% for your money to sit in a bank in a very safe country. I’m a little hesitant because I’m not sure how the Icelandic Krona will do relative to the dollar.
Just purchased a small position in 34.9% Least of the Dow Exchangeable Notes Due Feb. 27, 2009.
Yes, that's right, it pays 34.9%.
I only added a small position because the offer closed at noon today and I didn't have time to weigh the risk:benefit adequately. There are other similar offerings out there if anyone is interested. Think one of them is called "Dogs of the Dow."
>I am a scientist and do not list conference presentations in my list of peer reviewed literature.<
That's because you're a logical scientist. Most physicians pack their CVs full of abstracts/posters/presentations.
Are you sorry you bought ONAV? Just curious if you're going to hold it.
Important news from American Stroke Association
http://www.medpagetoday.com/MeetingCoverage/ASAMeeting/dh/8455
I wonder if this works better than MC-1 in CABG
OT: Munis
Have taken a huge hit because of the insurance issue. I view this as an opportunity because it's likely to be a transient phenomenon (if it's not, we're all screwed royally).
Closed-end funds are offering close to 10% yields now (tax-equivalent). I own BFK.
Munis--Opportunity knocks?
Closed-end muni funds are trading down dramatically because of the panic over insurers. This *has* to be a transient phenomenon or your local governments and institutions are in big trouble. I bought BFK, which is now yielding a tax-equivalent 9.91%.
My income portfolio (if anyone cares). Yields are at purchase price, not current yields. Just went positive for the year (excluding dividends).
AAV 15.2%
AINV 14.0%
ARCC 12.8%
BFK 6.5%
BGF 9.8%
CVP 13.6%
FLY 11.2%
GNV 14.2%
HTE 16.2%
IAF 10.7%
IFN (18.60%; unlikely to be as high next year, though)
ONAV 12.6%
PGH 16.0%
PWE 15.3%
No biotechs right now…sold my VRUS during the frenzy.
Looking at MIC, BEP, CPL, BVF
>In the maraviroc trial, patients were pretested for the relevant mutation, not for a clinical response to the drug in question.<
No, they were screened to ensure that they had CCR5-tropic virus (not a mutation).
>I assume you are getting paid such huge sums of money for your insights that it makes no sense to provide them in a forum such as this.<
Ha! I'm no docbanker
Just kidding, docbanker.
Just a minor point of interest: I was at a party this weekend and was talking to someone high up in ML's hedge fund operation who was very interested in RPRX. Not as an investment, but because she has severe uterine fibroids. I told her to call the company.
Thank you!
Sorry I've been completely inactive on the board. Got waylaid by a severe sinus infection and ended up having surgery last Thursday. Ten cc's of delicious pus in my left ethmoid sinus, whoo-hoo! At least I got to try a selection of today's most potent oral antibiotics.
Also killed my holiday plans because you can't fly for 10 days after the surgery.
Anyway, happy holidays to all!
John
>Since the stated aim of the management of RPRX is to sell the company, after derisking, I would take y'days PR as a definite positive<
Terry Hallihan, is that you?
Just kidding.
"With any dividend payment, a buyer looking to receive the distribution must purchase the security before the ex-dividend date (in order to be listed as a holder on the firm's books as of the record date). Because it generally takes three business days for a trade to settle, the ex-dividend date is typically set two days prior to the record date.
However, because this particular distribution represents more than 25% of the value of the security, special NASD rules apply. (For those interested, these rules were set up to help avoid margin calls.) In this case, the ex-dividend date is the first business day following the scheduled distribution, or November 29th.
An investor who buys KF between now and November 28th will still be entitled to the distribution, even though they are not technically the holder of record. (For all practical purposes, the October 26th "record date" is not terribly significant, as it does not represent the cut-off date for those who will receive the dividend.)
However, there is one caveat: if you purchased the shares before November 14th, then you had the option to receive your dividend either in cash or in the form of additional shares. That deadline has now passed, and new shareholders must now receive their payment in the form of additional shares of KF.
According to the firm's latest press release, this share distribution will be calculated based on the lower of the fund's closing market price or its net asset value (NAV) on November 28th. As of the close of trading today, The Korea Fund's market price is about 8.5% lower than its NAV, and if that remains the case, then fund-holders will acquire the new shares at the prevailing market price.
Beginning on November 29th, KF will begin trading without the right to receive the dividend -- so the price of the fund will open lower by approximately the amount of the payment on that day. Keep in mind, from a return standpoint this distribution is essentially a wash for shareholders. Today, the fund is valued at about $40 per share. If the distribution were made tomorrow, then investors would instead have one share valued at around $24 and about $16 per share in cash (or $16 per share in additional, newly-issued shares of stock, depending upon whether you selected the option to receive your distribution in cash).
Please remember that this distribution will be taxable. Based on data provided by the fund, the vast majority of the payment ($15.82 per share) represents long-term capital gains and is taxable at the reduced 15% rate, while the remainder is subject to ordinary income tax rates."
Chantix
Be very, very nice to me or else.
The US Food and Drug Administration has issued an early communication about an ongoing safety review of world drug major Pfizer's smoking-cessation drug Chantix (varenicline) after reports of suicidal thoughts and erratic behavior. The FDA says it has updated the product label to include reports of psychiatric side effects in Chantix patients, but stressed that it has not yet concluded whether they were caused by the drug.
>So my guess is that the best buyout opportunity is 12 to 18 months away<
I think you are right, and I also think the MDCO will be the purchaser. I posted my thoughts on this elsewhere.
Duh, yes.
The level of discussion on this board befits a pink-sheet penny stock and not a biotech with its first product soon to be marketed. You should all keep your pants on.
CAN$1.088 = US$1.00
Getting close to a 10% dividend hike, essentially, if you own Canroys.
Except for my biotechs and a little AFN and CNE, I'm completely out of US investments.
BNY
Anyone know what happened to this closed-end muni fund today? Down 13%.