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Simplified $LNTH + $PGNX Merger Math
- Old LNTH 40M shares 65%
- PGNX 21M shares 35%
- NewCo: 62M shares
Now if you would assume PGNX has zero value:
LNTH $25 -> $16.25 per share
Right now LNTH moved $25 -> $19, -24% or 76% retention value.
So it didn't drop 35% or 65% retention value,
but it is day one.
They claim sales of combined will be $370M,
so that is ~ $6/sh and P/S 3 = $18/sh.
Problem is ofc that LNTH had $39M income and PGNX $78M losses,
so the combined company may start with ~$40M losses.
A tough valuation problem as it throws LNTH
temporarily back into the loss zone.
It will also weaken its balance sheet due to PGNX debt.
PS: LNTH would be eligible for $CYDY milestone and royalty payments.
Big question is: Will LNTH and PGNX accept the merger?
How much support have they received?
for $LNTH the math is as follows:
- old LNTH 40M shares 65%
- PGNX 21M shares 35%
- NewCo: 62M shares
Right now LNTH moved $25 -> $19, -24% or 76% retention value.
So it didn't drop 35% or 65% retention value,
but it is day one.
They claim sales of combined will be $370M,
so that is ~ $6/sh and P/S 3 = $18/sh.
Problem is ofc that LNTH had $39M income and PGNX $78M losses,
so the combined company may start with losses.
A tough problem.
Played PGNX twice from $4. It is a sad buyout at the lows,
but shall give hope to have their portfolio developed by the big company.
A similar hope is here, only that NP probably would not sell for $2.
Yes, he is even laughing about the price while managing even lower micro offerings.
But OK, very soon we will see if his promises (item 1 + 2)
will hold any water.
Fortuno, Zuess: Why is it so hard for CYDY to put out these statements into writing and SEC file it as an FD?
The BLA's safety data (to be completed) and stability data is at least for me material, as it impacts the cash flow IF one believes a licensing deal could close having approval.
Fortuno, I understand that you talk from the angle of religion already (o8>
But sure, if SP breaks above all Warrants, financing is secured.
gsuk: Nobody cares about my irrelevant ownership. As I said before, I am eyeing a stable uptrend above the next resistance lines 45c-50c. Whenever that might be.
Let me repeat, NP messed up the BLA already!
CYDY failed to produce the required stability data,
which usually needs to cover 6 month (SIX MONTH).
NP hopes 3 month of stability might please the FDA
without any substance really. Why should the FDA
all of a sudden waiver stability data and
potentially risk patients?
That would be 3 month into 2020, wouldn't it?
Really curious about 'funding secured', the time is about now.
And no, this is not the licensing deal due in 3 weeks,
according to NP.
Hence the situation is quite simple.
if NP is consistent and the new offering shows up soon (1-2 weeks)
then you can pick up in the low 20c.
Funding secured? Show me the money.
Licensing deal in 2 weeks left to close? Show me the 8-K.
As our 'house lawyers' very well condensed it,
this is a trust Nader play now and of course: Delivery.
If history just repeats, I am bearish.
If NP finally surprises, I am bullish.
For now, I am just cynical (o8>
(o8> But to be fair, Suvorov was pretty close.
CYDY stock is always slow changing direction at first.
Still 34-35c support.
Usually you see a falling wedge here until positive financing/licensing news are to be disclosed.
Alternatively a TA bounce after a deep dive.
Using the 'new' word 'deep' here now, leaning humorously against NP's deep progress (o8>
Licensing may take a while, i.e. longer than the remaining 3 weeks since 9/12 SH Meeting.
Decision probably being done by disclosure of next funding cycle.
Secured?
Show me the money.
BL, great balanced post as usual.
IMHO, funding to pay for up until BLA and a bit later is one item
and the licensing deal is another one.
Problem will be the next funding round, knowing the last "SH gift round" above market price didn't succeed.
Yes, licensing for post BLA completion is still going on according to NP.
No update on the funding side.
I can also be 'funny' and say NP is correct. We don't want to hear about a bad final funding cycle before it dilutes us. We will understand after the fact.
This or a positive surprise for a change.
Good 34-35c support so far, 38c being the clear resistance.
Low volume again.
thank you z_smith
so it looks a little bit like they missed the stability data submission,
obviously.
But as it is still pre BLA, well - not as bad as for CLSD
See earlier comment: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=151417856
(We all here knew about the BLA delay until end of 2019. Now we have to see whether CYDY can make it until.)
Other than that, NP restated ongoing licensing and funding(?) talks. Both questions were answered via the lawyer gagging order(?).
It could have been worse (o8>
I can't remember when I quoted NP by memory about revenue in 2021,
but I wrote he slipped this somehow. It was a ProactiveVideo.
Now Samsung Biologics will deliver new product in mid 2021?
(Is that correct? AFAIK it was asked again and sort of confirmed)
But NP also talked about ordering new product. But well, this can't happen if Samsung is ready for mid 2021. Or they have their old supplier still.
New CMC must also been FDA approved AFAIK, but that should not be the big issue.
+++
So Combo BLA completion around end of 2019 if FDA and the gods will (safety data + this stability data).
Combo BTD timeline IMHO has already slipped, when I remember right - but heck, I am wrong often as well.
Did they apply for BTD when they asked for the cancer FTD (got) and ODD (rejected)?
+++
New Mono trial is pushed back, FDA changing protocol.
+++
Again, thanks for the caller's question, where NP reconfirmed that the licensing deal is still going.
Yes, NP mumbled about 'top secret' based on furthered talks/negotiations.
+++
No BLA financing secured update?
+++
Grip, we will see how market reacts.
I am surprised they made a CC in the first place,
as it didn't give new information after the SH meeting AFAIK.
Please correct.
(Thank you @neverendingwait)
Not interested in a diving SP. Waiting for 45c strike and 50c conversion price (?) to become a new support range.
who is doing it this time?
I did it the last time.
If none jumps in with youtube auto-transcript, well ..
ADD: CYDY should do it actually (o8>
so let's see how that goes, 6 weeks from last SH meeting to close the deal didn't get repeated - but yes, also no negation.
Misiu re stability data, NP states different quantity on same quality/concentration (as Zuess figures)?
TNBC 1st injection, when can they release data?
3-4 pts w/ 6 weeks or so?
OK, CC ended.
I am quite unsure what this was now to be sure.
Did they release new information?
The success of the drug prohibits him to do certain licensing deals?
But yes, he just repeated that he is still within negotiations
of the licensing deal - phew.
Thank you, whoever asked again.
and new product 'clinical grade' from Samsung in mid 2021 (not mid 2020).
But they might can sell other product they have already?
- Mono
-- Pivotal b/c of 525mg results
-- FDA will change protocol
-- Will delay BLA? (Did I get that right?)
NP just cancelled the question? Wow!
So it is as it is: BLA safety depends on some Mono patients and will hence delay the BLA?
FDA changing the Pivotal Mono Trial.
Please correct.
Also:
- Licensing
-- No exclusive license for an indication (outch)
-- because NP thinks CYDY is too strong (???)
(So forget the 50% on sales deal or any other deal?)
Maybe you can inject the big Q about BLA funding!
424b3 Series-C prospect just released as well -> S-3/A related
IMHO the 50c convertibles, IF they do it and forfeit their 10% interest rate and SP is above of course.
CC Listening ..
MM:
- forward looking statement disclaimer
NP:
- Complains about Share Price (I don't like that)
-- Advancements of all indications etc
-- Sascha
-- Cancer ..
-- Investor only has to recognize ..
-- "Here to state facts and facts only"
(Sounds a bit apologetic)
- Combo BLA
-- Safety FDA 50 mono pts 700mg in October
(Sensible?)
- Mono
-- Pivotal b/c of 525mg results
-- FDA will change protocol
-- Will delay BLA? (Did I get that right?)
- PreP
-- Sascha note: Update
--- Funding research potential BMG, ..
--- Half-Life extension: 4x expected
--- Thai Red Cross 50pts (only)
- CROI 2020
-- PreP
-- .. (everybody is impressed)
- $50M raised for production
- Product mid 2020 via Samsung Biologics
- Licensing
-- No exclusive license for an indication (outch)
-- because NP thinks CYDY is too strong (???)
(So forget the 50% on sales deal or any other deal?)
Now Bruce is talking ..
I am a little bit confused :-|
ohm20, that is correct.
BTW, I curb my enthusiasm here and don't want to set expectations too high for today. We know this situation.
Zuess, Fortuno, et al. yes, funding and deal would make the big difference
at least it gives SP support, but when SEC filed black on white,
it should also move SP up naturally towards BLA and other milestones.
+++
Re stability data, I doubt the FDA is 'just making fun'.
However, yes, as with CLSD such "negligence" can be cured without too big punishment - here easier, as the BLA hasn't been completed yet.
No CRL on this front.
+++
Here is one thing which also caught our eye, it is correct that FDA
sort of monitors certain advertisement/publishing from company but not 24/7 and surely not CYDY's PR videos nor SH meetings without being directed.
A few times I wrote that I would like certain information being publiched in written, at least as a written PR if not SEC FD filed.
It seems that the threshold to publish certain 'on the edge' expectations or information in videos is much lower than to publish them in written on the company website.
So this might also be one big reason why these positive statements are not being taken for real by the market.
+++
Maybe it would be best for company to end the "video propaganda" and only release material news via written PRs and copy on their company website.
And if they are not capable to write it for broad understanding, they may add NP's video diary again (o8>
What do I expect from tomorrows SH Meeting other than the known updates?
Clarification on the NBA and funding timeline!
Most important to me.
Then maybe BLA timeline.
Everything else is noise to me for now.
8-K 3.01 filed, AH ~50c.
Stability Data Hick-Up reminds me a little of CLSD
First of all: Great that the 1st TNBC patient in the official trial got injected. When 3-4 are enrolled and injected we shall expect the first 3 weeks data release as previously communicated by CEO to Misiu, if that was correct. FDA sort of blocks lower data size and non official trial data.
Zuess421, threw a very good question yesterday (thank you Z)
volume was not enough today
Why does CYDY needs volume?
To settle the toxic debt and whoever wants to sell ASAP.
Funny when NP talks about 'whoever want's to sell'
while he very well should know who that is.
Good night.
well, SH CC could be just about what they say: Update
They updated the presentation https://content.equisolve.net/_541733032e42f46457a3f4617468f77f/cytodyn/db/193/2912/pdf/CytoDyn+-+Investor_presentation+-+Sep-25-2019-Final.pdf
Differences 9/8 -> 9/25
- p6: Combo BLA completion Nov/Dec 2019 now
- p7: Mono 700mg stats 87% -> 92% (whatever their metric is)
So the more data gets available, it probably will all align to 90%
- milestones:
-- 2H2019 -> 2019 edited, no change
-- TNBC interim results 1H2020 removed
-- TNBC initial read of data (CTC) 4Q19 added
)o:
A17, yes, sadly history rhymes and that is how it was done so far.
We wait for 45c to be broken to buy, the new big resistance marked via new Warrants strike. Not much Warrants yet, but maybe there come more.
Current valuation fight has just started, Ludwig even thinks this looks similar to 9/9/2016 - I hope not.
Darn, I want them to finally succeed.
I am sure he would love to PR good news on deal progress,
but maybe he will just reiterate the deal and BLA to be expected until end of this year (no more '6 weeks').
I don't even understand why he needs another CC right after the SH meeting.
The bright and dark side is known.
Risk is NP is just playing on time.
We would love to believe that NP is cornered and highly motivated to finalize a deal and hence financing.
Maybe the final (bigger) financing round is coming up?
That could be both, initially negative like 9/9/2016 but then turning into a positive for BLA and a deal.
We have no idea.
PS: No, it is none of us wishing for lower lows. Stock is only interesting on an uptrend from here on.
30 days < $1 complete, delisting notification within a few days for 1st 180 days grace period to fix
yes LP, a good 2nd part of your post.
Your first part is ridiculous as usual, but if it helps to have me as the guilty devil for your stock price - you are very welcome (o8>
McDermott Is Said to Seek Bridge Loan Until It Can Sell Assets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-24/mcdermott-is-said-to-seek-bridge-loan-until-it-can-sell-assets
(and so it happens, Bloomberg did post the news using same author - see previous post https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=151333654)
Good morning LP
What makes you think I want this to be true?
That would be horrible, i.e. wanting one hopeful patient to die.
And for what reason should we have this morbid wish?
Me & friends current strategy here is to check whether NP's deal gets through and hence wish price goes up (finally).
I read your statement about your email w/ NP,
maybe you can detail this here and make a more
professional post?
Why are you and some others even so upset
about the possibility that a late stage mTNBC patient
may not survive? This is actually highly expected
and it would be magical if they survive or very well
extend their life - I wish her all the luck possible.
This is everything but one thing: A needle to move the SP.
EDIT: I also asked LACYDY about the detail via a PM, no reply.
I also don't believe that it is possible to gather information if you are not somewhat involved in the trial.
No, price probably simply 'dips' based on latest toxic financing
and offering rounds in the range of $0.20 - $0.32 effectively.
Maybe an entity is also willing to harm the micro offering now?
So if this latest closes and stock sold despite the fact that
SP is below the offering price, it would prove company's statement
this being a specific shareholder wish.
Now I don't know whether I should add a sarcasm tag to this last paragraph or not - let's hope not and SH are stronger.
EDIT: Does anybody know whats left to convert from the toxic debt conversion below traded SP?
Waiting for the deal and SP to break above 45c again.
McDermott seeks loan to cover $1.7B working capital gap, Bloomberg says
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2967221&headline=MDR-McDermott-seeks-loan-to-cover-B-working-capital-gap-Bloomberg-says
Maybe the same author who brought down the ship initially?
https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ASS6hzNzQ9I/allison-mcneely
(Regardless: Both sides from Bloomberg)
This debt refi bridge loan is intended to cover working capital
and sooth the bond holders until the Lummus assets sales is completed
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2965806&headline=MDR-McDermott-soars-after-saying-Lummus-unit-received-unsolicited-approaches
Ludwig, friend of mine thinks this is the consequent move from company to neutralize the BK threat, caused by certain bond holders revolting.
The latter probably ran the whole show: Press (Bloomberg, WSJ) and lawyering up.
Let's see how this develops.
Company paying back the bonds via bridge loan + asset sales
is surely the ideal way forward and they are aligned as required for the bridge loan.
(our common opinion)
I would like the bonds recover further of course,
but those are usually traded much slower.
+++
Credit Suisse Analyst hopeful
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2966020&headline=MDR-McDermott-analyst-commentary-at-Credit-Suisse
+++
Bonds holding so far heading up, quite some volatility:
http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C750729&symbol=MDR4619050
+++
They were even able to get new contracts under this 'bad environment'
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2966926&headline=MDR-McDermott-awarded-sizeable-FEED-contract-by-POSCO
and then there was another rumor of one owner selling
b/c the share owner passed away?
(^^^ this rumor was here from newrunner AFAIK)
If anybody could substantiate or refute these
two rumors from yesterday I would be happy - curious me.
Not that this is really SP related beyond a few days.
So far 32c held, good.
Below rumor was on the other board
here, calculated worst case dilution adjusted value since 4Q18
based on authorized shares (AS) from my peer SoS
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/48819309-seaofsand/5345265-cytodyn-cydy-fully-diluted-mcap-development
13 Shots on Goal
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4293280-cytodyns-13-shots-goal-de-risk-investment
Nothing new, but I like the perspective and his costs comparison, glass just got filled a tiny bit.
Added: I may add, the author made a good article also covering financials.
Only funny IMHO is his alignment to GALT (but that is me personally)
Whoever is exiting now - second day, do it (o8>
PS: I am well aware of the rumor spreaded yesterday that
the mTNBC patient zero (not enlisted for data nor official protocol)
passed away.
If true: May god bless her. All the best to her family.
She was in a very advanced stage they said.
This doesn't change the cancer prospective,
as PRO140 should help not spreading cancer -> Earlier stage.
If anybody has more details, please share.
if you really must (see a positive), you could also say that the BOD was willing to dilute their own ownership by giving NP a bunch of more options (the big salary increase).
BOD is wealthy and deeply invested and buying more, we know that for years.
Well, I would like to see the BOD making a final investment for the BLA.
If I would 'pump' the stock, I could ask whether it is the BOD who is securing the financing? (o8>
And it is this BOD who is still supporting NP.
Earlier I asked whether they are 'stupid' (around the ex-Pestell timeframe).
For sure they have insider information.
But if you want to see insiders buying for assurance,
look no further but the BOD.
Grip, I like you attitude (o8>
Read my previous crunch time sentiment and I am sure you also play with this situation a little: NP must deliver, last chance.
Regarding deadlines: NP is horrible, no news (o8>
Why is he horrible? He promises too much, some events out of his control occur and then he even might make the situation worse himself (Pestel?).
Whatever.
Let's see if the suitors in the data room really like what they are seeing and doing their own math for profitability, like we did https://finesand.wordpress.com/2019/09/12/cytodyn-cydy-50-royalties-on-sales/
(yes, even more potential profits as royalties to pay for CYDY is lower)
(and yes, just for combo alone)
In this sense, the old dream is over - long live the new dream: SP > $2 for Combo.
this is all correct. Still, since he does get paid 40-50% in stock options, he would benefit from the stock rise as the BOD folks who are truly in with their real cash.
LM, I wouldn't call this freefall here as 32c bounced well.
On a positive note, 1M volume is great for CYDY.
Only if stock gets further dumped, I call it freefall.
In this case, I would change my 'buy uptrend' goal and simply buy.
My personality aligns with my friends, i.e. it is crunch time for NP.
We believe that is a good thing and must bring the best performance out of him.
For a change, we do believe him that there are suitors of some sorts 'in the data room'.
What does it mean 'in the data room'?
To my knowledge, it is a secure data environment, probably virtual like a VPN, where CYDY gives suitors access to all internal information including scientific detailed data.
The suitors have signed an NDA.
One or some have signed the NBA.
This alone, if so believed, is already a big step up for CYDY
as a deal could be realized at any time if they so wish.
Do they have a reason to close a deal around BLA timing?
Of course.
My only little short term fear could be that NP is still too cocky
to give suitors the appropriate discount for pre-BLA and/or pre-Approval!
(We discussed this here - such discounts are generally given)
However, this little short term fear is soothed by stated above fact
that NP is now cornered - and hence the reason why believe this cornered situation is a very positive here, where usually it would be negative.
NP is walking on the edge and he must close a deal.
So yes, I would like the market turning sentiment to the upside
and allowing me and others to buy in same trend.
I am also glad (or would be), if NP would finally end his video propaganda.
Dear NP, just make a clear press release and attach it with an 8-K filing
re-stating the details of the signed NBA and similar positive development.
For this reason, we have recorded the shareholder meeting audio,
as it was an official event with official announcements.
No, CYDY is not risk free as no stock is.
If NP fails with the deal, he failed big time and ruined all his credibility left.
On the other hand, if he realizes the deal, he will be everybody's darling and regained sentiment and control.
Good luck
JPG, you don't sell at a loss to buy higher - IMHO (o8>
And surely not just for the warrants, those would be very costly selling at a loss, buying higher and selling again?
No.
This latest offering size also doesn't really count.
None of the bigger investors would experience any difference.
When the TO came up, I recommended (in an unprofessional sense) to sell some shares (high) and participate in the offering buying very low.
That was a great deal, even if not selling high (40-50c).
Now the current micro offering is really nothing.
But it is OK for folks who couldn't participate in the TO,
for whatever reason.
This little one also doesn't resolve any financing issues, if still existing.
Let's see how SP rides into the next days and weeks, while getting closer to the deal deadline. I will change my nickname to rawrock if the market doesn't increase the volume more and SP eventually turning its nose up (o8>
We are talking about a potential excellent deal.
GL and now bedtime.
PS: the 32c was also forecasted by me & peers, as it is roughly the diluted 1 year SP, assuming zero progress. No surprise.
However, strong progress has been announced to be expected.
That's the fun situation here.
yes. I expected Paulson to run away after the Pestell disaster.
All this pushed NP into a very inconvenient corner - very hard place IMHO.
And this is also my thesis for the upside, the hard place finally motivates him extremely to survive, cut a deal to continue the vision.
He has no other choice, as plain lying would only push the downfall a few weeks away. Weeks.
Dr. Rae is hopefully in South Korea (o8>
And as earlier stated, if NP fails on his own deadline: Give him a shovel, figurative speaking of course.