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Hey Putz, if you could make a guess, how many shares do you think 001 is selling per day? Are they buying these shares back?
I agree with you. We will truly never know what's happening behind the scenes. We can only trust management, which works in our favour because of the quality of the personnel.
One thing I'm wondering about is the equity portion of the financing. When management is negotiating, do they use the current PPS? Or do they negotiate with a PPS that they think the company is worth? I'm not familiar with how this is done.
I'm in the same boat as you. I don't need the money now but its sometimes frustrating watching the PPS decrease instead of increase lol
My opinion is that to get the best financing deal, we need a scandium offtake and Mark is waiting for the right offer to come along. I just don't see this happening by the end of the year even if NioCorp suggested that lol.
There is something happening in December with that bill that includes scandium - can't recall off the top of my head. I think NioCorp will wait to see if the DoD signs up for scandium. When a company has anything to do with the government, its a huge boost.
Hi AO, I think that's why we see such a difference of opinions on the board. There are a number of investors that want to see results now (including myself sometimes). That leads to frustration with the PPS and then taking out the frustration with messages on the board (I'm guilty of this).
The more calm investors just go with the flow and could care less about the current PPS. They care more about the 5 year outlook.
By the way, Mark sounds confident in the latest video. I don't agree with you that we'll see financing this year. I think Mark is waiting for the pieces to come together perfectly. He has to be patient because the next few steps could make or break the PPS. I'm sure he's being careful because he has a lot at stake with 20? million shares.
TODD, I'm not sure this is correct.
Quoted from the FS:
"The Project will obviously benefit from becoming a stable, domestic US producer of Nb and Sc2O3 where currently all supplies must be imported from abroad. Nb sales (32% of gross revenue generated) as modelled would cover the cost of production for all three commodities but Sc2O3 sales will be required to generate positive cash flow to cover any Project loan principal repayments/interest expense and meet investment criteria for stakeholders."
I don't think financing is possible without a scandium offtake if I understand that statement in the FS correctly. We should clear this up with Jim.
A simple google search would tell you. Have you tried that? Maybe you should educate yourself.
Lind provides toxic funding (do you know what that is?) to other companies. The deal with NioCorp wasn't too bad because they agreed to not short sell the stock like they've done to other companies.
You may be able to consider Lind an institutional investor but they are not the type you want since they are predatory. A good institutional investor would take a position in a stock by buying shares.
Lind doesn't buy any shares on the market. They make money by lending cash for shares + warrants. They don't make investments hoping for the PPS to increase. They make money by lending money.
Hopefully thats clear enough for you. If you still don't understand, I can explain further.
If anybody views Lind differently, please voice your opinion. Much rather have a discussion than be accused of being involved with LCP.
Lind an institutional investor? Lol
They prey off of small cap companies in need of cash. Look at their history of deals with other companies. Far from an institutional investor.
I am a proud Canadian. Thanks for mentioning that.
I don't think we can say never but most institutional investors won't consider OTC stocks. I'm not in the financial world so maybe someone with more knowledge around that can explain.
I intend to hold for a long time. I'm really curious how management will be able to get the PPS to a respectable level to avoid a large amount of dilution and move to a better exchange. Maybe I'm worrying too much.
Management has been taking all of the right steps but the market hasn't shown any respect.
Thanks for your logical and respectable response. Much appreciated.
I'm Canadian. Live in Toronto.
I think investment from U.S. institutions is important.
Thanks Mass.
I agree with your thoughts. Lets hope we can get the PPS high enough to avoid that situation.
Are you aware that NioCorp also trades in the U.S.?
Maybe not big sellers. I'm just concerned that we don't have buyers at these levels to stabilize the PPS. The red days continue.
There are many positives about the company. The investors here are aware of them.
Lets have a grown up discussion. If you're a knowledgeable investor, answer me this - why are we sitting at a 3 year low after all of the derisking and the quick advancement the company has made? I'm not the only investor here concerned about that.
Have you failed to evaluate the risk in investing in the penny stock? Nothing is guaranteed. You keep posting messages about how the stock is going to take off. I can tell you that this is one of the better opportunities out there but nothing is taking off anytime soon.
To get us to the next level, we need institutional investment but institutions don't invest in anything on the OTC. So how do we get off the OTC (its not magic)? Its a chicken and egg problem. If you don't have an answer, maybe some of the knowledgable posters do (AO, TODD, Walter, etc..). I like to hear facts.
Sure I don't.
You may have done your research but you've never been right about the PPS.
I'm not saying the company is going to fail. We may not see the return we're hoping for and its going to take some time.
We're sitting at 0.52 CAD after all of the derisking. Think about that for a second.
Why is the PPS this low and why are there big sellers down here?
Even if we were able obtain financing or an offtake, how much would that increase the PPS? We've seen what this stock does with good news.
The outlook is looking bleak. The dilution/reverse split is unavoidable at this point. It doesn't matter how much management says the company is worth or the current "talks" they are in with different entities, if they can't raise the PPS to a respectable level, we are in for a bumpy ride.
I know some of the longs don't agree with me but that's ok. Look at the current PPS, that's the market valuation of the company this late in the game. The market is usually correct.
I'm being a realist. Hopefully something good came out of the investor meeting today, not the usual fluff.
Any stock other than NB has done quite well over the past few years, so don’t feel special.
I’m not sure about others here but I don’t have all of my funds in NB. I’ve looked at this as a speculative investment that might have a big payout.
I remember earlier this year we thought ending the year at 0.80CAD would have been terrible. I’m wishing for that right now lol
This has been a terrible investment so far. Yes, management is doing the right things but that doesn’t matter if we’re losing money.
How are we sitting at a 3 year low after all of the de-risking? Are we missing something?
0.40s CAD here we come.
Something needs to be done soon.
I think that's what he means. We will hit 0.50 CAD tomorrow. Am I correct Putz?
0.53 CAD. Matter of time before we hit the 0.40s.
We haven't seen these prices since 2011/2012? I'm too embarrassed to promote this stock to anybody. Chart looks like shit.
We need material news soon. No more fluff.
This stock has been dead money for some time. The company will be successful but we may not see the PPS that were hoping for.
I know I have to be patient, long, strong, optimistic, believe, stay the course, know what we own. (did I miss any?)
Arbutus’ LNP Licensee Alnylam Announces Positive Phase 3 Results for LNP-Enabled Patisiran Program
http://investor.arbutusbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/arbutus-lnp-licensee-alnylam-announces-positive-phase-3-results
Arbutus’ LNP Technology Further Validated with New Results
Arbutus to Receive Single Digit Royalties on Sales of Patisiran
VANCOUVER, British Columbia and WARMINSTER, Pa., Sept. 20, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (Nasdaq:ABUS), an industry-leading hepatitis B virus (HBV) therapeutic solutions company, announced today that the Company's lipid nanoparticle (LNP) licensee Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq:ALNY), announced that the APOLLO Phase 3 study of patisiran, an investigational RNAi therapeutic being developed for patients with hereditary ATTR amyloidosis with polyneuropathy, met its primary efficacy endpoint and all secondary endpoints. Patisiran is enabled by Arbutus’ lipid nanoparticle (LNP) technology. The program represents the most clinically advanced application of Arbutus proprietary LNP delivery technology. Per the terms of the LNP license agreement for patisiran, Arbutus will be owed single digit royalties on sales of patisiran. Alnylam stated that it intends to file a New Drug Application (NDA) in late 2017 and a Marketing Authorisation Application (MAA) in early 2018.
Dr. Mark J. Murray, Arbutus’ President and CEO, said, "We are very pleased by the successful outcome of Alnylam’s APOLLO Phase 3 study of patisiran. This is an important achievement for patients and for the field of RNAi therapeutics. These data provide further validation of the utility of our leading LNP technology. Our LNP technology represents the most proven delivery technology for the systemic delivery of nucleic acid-based therapeutics."
About Arbutus’ Lipid Nanoparticle Delivery (LNP) Technology
Arbutus’ LNP technology represents the most clinically validated nucleic acid delivery technology. Arbutus’ LNP formulations are manufactured by a proprietary method, which is robust, scalable, and highly reproducible and LNP-based products have been reviewed by multiple FDA divisions for use in clinical trials. LNP formulations comprise several lipid components that can be adjusted to suit the specific application. Arbutus has built a strong intellectual property portfolio directed to various aspects of LNPs and LNP formulations, including 46 patents issued in the United States alone and patent applications throughout the United States and Europe. Arbutus continues to explore opportunities to generate value from its LNP platform technology, which is well suited to deliver therapies based on RNAi, mRNA, and gene editing constructs. The broad applicability of this platform to nucleic acid therapeutic development has established Arbutus as a leader in this new area of innovative medicine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_spiral_financing
If you research Lind, they have done financing for other small cap companies. This is how they make their money. By lending cash to speculative companies, not investing.
In NioCorp's case, I recall they were not allowed to short the stock but that doesn't mean they cannot manipulate. You see this happening with many speculative companies that are in need of cash.
NioCorp will have to do another raise because financing won't been in place until next year I assume. If the PPS is in the 0.50s, the next raise could be in the 0.40s.
Hopefully we can see some material news to push the PPS up before the next financing is required. Not another fluff new release like today. Maybe something about a scandium offtake, I'm tired of this board arguing over that.
Achieving the load guarantee would be a big event. I see at least 1.50+ CAD.
I think many are scared of the dilution. We need big material events like this to push us up to levels where dilution won't be as painful.
Tough road ahead but we're heading in the right direction.
Does anyone that attended the town hall know if the company commented on the PPS?
Agreed. Seeking Alpha articles are informational at best.
I'm pretty sure NioCorp's scandium expert wouldn't be scamming us on the prices. We will officially wait for the offtake to quiet some of the doubters.
I agree with you. This stock has been a dud for some time now and it won't all of a sudden take off like a rocket ship and leave everyone behind.
I'm still holding my core shares. I'm not purchasing anymore until I see the PPS stop hitting lower lows. Money is best spent elsewhere for now.
No, just be patient and understand the risks. This stock isn't a guaranteed money maker but there is a good chance it could be.
Listening to some posters here may have swayed your investment expectations. Don't be emotionally attached to this stock and reset your expectations.
That is true. Hopefully we get enough fluff news to keep us around this level until the bigger news later this year.
The money raises have been painful and will continue to be.
Don't set yourself up for disappointment. Don't expect anything material from the company until end of the year or early next year.
There may be some fluff news but don't expect anything that'll move the PPS until that time.
I'm not in front of my computer right now but I think it's a general disclaimer for the new hydrometallurgical process they developed. There was a news release months ago about this.
You'll find many disclaimers in the FS pointing out risks. They must be in there. Nothing to worry about.
Does everyone else see "This site may be hacked" when googling NioCorp?
They really need to get a better website manager if this keeps occurring. I know this happened before. Very unprofessional.
NioCorp Google
I think to truly derisk the project, a scandium offtake much be achieved.
Luckily, management is proactive and is in discussion with 10 potential suitors. It should only be a matter of time.
Our thoughts are with you.
Definitely not happening on Monday.
It's going to happen over the next six months. I would even prepare to wait until 2018 as the discussions with DoD continue.
There is some good information in the FS. I found the following quotes. I bet there is some other good tid bits in there.
"NioCorp is working with 10 potential customers at the time of writing, and discussions with these potential customers are proceeding under the provisions of Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs)."
"NioCorp’s overall objective during the six months immediately following the issuance of the project’s Feasibility Study is to complete offtake agreements for a minimum of 25% of the projected annualized Sc2O3 production from the Project."
If anybody finds any other important information, please post.
Here too we see progress in the whole process, but less of the recent rate evolution. Despite the announcement of some very interesting developments, we saw the course moving down for inexplicable reasons.
Key point in the development phase of the Elk Creek project was the announcement of the Bankable Feasibility study, the first data of which was announced in late May, the full comprehensive study will be released soon.
The detailed study will be used by banks for granting loans and for completing the financing of the project.
My personal expectation was that the announcement of the end of the study would have a very positive impact on the share price, but the opposite was true.
The response to the publication was negative because the results were below expectations despite the positive sounds that were always provided by the company itself
- The biggest drawback was that despite spectacular improvements in the metallurgical process, CAPEX for the project instead of lower even exceeded the PEA that announced the company last year
- Higher CAPEX means that a higher amount has to be financed and that made investors seem nervous
- Due to the highly conservative attitude of the experts, EBITDA also came down slightly lower than the previous value in the PEA
- Lower EBITDA obviously has an impact on the future valuation of the project.
- There was apparently some uncertainty as a number of licenses had to be addressed, although the most important license from the government was ok.
The foregoing findings meant that the price response was negative and that the main point of the feasibility study was to ignore the "derisken" of the project.
Although the figures of the study decrease slightly, the project remains highly profitable with an expected EBITDA of 389.6 million usd per annum and an expected IRR after tax of 21.7%
Using a current value calculation via EBITDA multiplied by a multiplicity of 8.5 used in the acquisition of a similar company, we exceed a value of more than 4 billion cad while the current market capitalization of Niocorp is 125mio cad.
Of course, the price per share depends largely on the way in which financing is going on and what dilution the share is going to undergo and that is the big uncertainty the investor is facing.
The share price will probably only respond positively if there is more visibility for funding, the most important thing is that it will be realized but the question is what percentage in the creation of new shares.
It is in favor of the company that CEO Mark Smith is also the largest shareholder in Niocorp and, of course, as little as possible wants to dilute share, as well as some recent and recent developments in favor of smooth financing
- The stable price of Niobium means that banks have high visibility and are likely to be more likely to lend
- The important overtaking contracts for 75% of future sales for Niobium and, in particular, the contract with Thysen Krupp accompanied by a guarantee from the German government facilitates financing
- A recent positive opinion from a US Senate Committee to conclude strategic agreements with US companies that are the future producer of Scandium is an important plus in getting funding
- The promise of the Trump administration to make investment in infrastructure a priority and the strategic importance of Niobium and Scandium in it can be a decisive factor.
- The importance of the Elk Creek project for Nevada is very large, according to a letter from Nevada Governor addressed to the government
Conclusion: It is awaiting more news about the financing of the project, as apparently there is still some uncertainty about this. It is important that the project's profitability is very high and the price potential for Niocorp is very attractive, especially if future dilution can be minimized.
Does anyone have an opinion on when we see the FS? Monday?
Also, a question for those more knowledgeable than me - is there anything in the FS that we should focus on reading?
Not happening without some really good news.
We need buyers. The PPS won't increase until we see more demand than supply.