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Semis in the news...
From Briefing.com - Applied Materials (AMAT) says it will announce "significant breakthrough" today at 4 p.m. e.d.t...
AAPL switching to INTC's chips.
Mid-Q updates this week for TXN and INTC.
More fuel for the rally, or the setup for a "sell the news" top?
Just finished perusing the weekend's posts. Great debates, informative, thought-provoking, all done with civility. A reminder of why this thread is the best. Let's see if we can keep the standard that high throughout the trading day!!
Proof once again that the market always does the unexpected, and if it has a chance to make me look stupid in the process, it won't pass it up <g>. I don't know if anyone can really say why one day "fed done" comments are bullish, and the next day "fed done" numbers are bearish. I learned long ago I can't outsmart the market on a tick-by-tick basic, so I just swing trade by the charts and wait for the profit to come.
I've been short the QQQQ's since last friday at $38.21. I expect to cover for a profit sometime in the next few days/weeks, and in between I predict the market will defy logic, sentiment, and consensus every chance it gets.
Nothing like an early start to the weekend to make me verbose!
From the AP newswire; Sources say that the PPT is reporting for duty today after realizing that their "fed done" rumor efforts have not produced the desired effect on the markets.
The PPT had hoped that Dallas team member Fisher's "rogue" comments and todays bogus jobs report would lift the markets, but that appears not to be the case.
The PPT had taken Friday off to enjoy an extended weekend, and are reportedly not pleased with having to delay their plans until they can get the market under control again.
Look for the PPT to begin their corrective measures sometime in the afternoon, likely at their preferred 2:22 time.
I'd like to hear how their rosy INTC view fits into their prediction of 0% eps growth for the S&P in '06. A JPM analyst was on Bloomburg this morning predicting that the economy would soon see jobs up, productivity down, and wage pressures increasing... These guys are all over the map.
That's my prediction as well. The confounding issue for me is the volume, its absence prevents me from getting a clear reversal-worthy overbought reading. Way too much optimism in the "on to 2200" scenario, though, time for Da Boyz to do the unexpected.
Confirmation of "Fed Done" environment. Now we can start fretting about the threat of a "soft patch", or worse...
That rogue quote popped up the moment tomorrow's jobs numbers got leaked <g>. Predictions anyone? Under 100k and the market spikes, over 200k and the market dumps...I'll take the over.
edit: any "dump" likely to be offset by the daily semis jam.
It could take a long time for Fido to unwind their GOOG position, and their selling alone would drive the price down. How great would it be for them if there was someone out there propping up GOOG with insane $350 price targets?
HPQ and NVLS both suffer from poor execution, and are on my list of short prospects. Both are gonna hit their numbers through layoffs, but right now the market regards that as positive. When the euphoria wears off, these two are toast.
INTC and KLAC getting positive comments AFTER a parabolic run. NVLS gets bid up after a weak report. Sure sounds like a "sell the news" setup for the INTC mid-Q.
Disclosure: 45% long tech, 5% short hedge QQQQ's, 50% cash.
<<<The glass is always half full. Bitch bitch bitch>>>
Just to clarify, I think "the glass is half EMPTY" would more accurately reflect your point.
EDIT; Neither a difference of opinion on the direction of the market and/or the justifications offered for positions taken qualify as "bitching" or "negativity". Those unpleasant words are more accurately ascribed to personal attacks on those with whom you disagree. Maturity is the ability to maintain civility with people you disagree with....
I'm thinking the oil inventory numbers are one of the few things NOT manipulating the price of oil, or we wouldn't be at $52 right now. As for jobs numbers, somewhere out there is a reason for those "soft patch" fears, I think it might show up in these numbers. As for jobs sentiment, NVLS did say today that they were gonna hit their numbers through layoffs.
Really though, I just think that once the semis break, the market will come up with its own hindsight reasons to explain why it went down in June.....
All IMHO, of course..
<<< I can't understand why they would buy 10 year or longer with a lower yield than 1 year... Something is topsy turvey here and no one IMO has quite figured it out.>>>>
Amen. Here's my conspiracy theory... If I was an emerging economic power, bursting with new money, needing to invest it in the stable 'ole U.S.of A., but looking for a way to apply leverage against them for political reasons, I would want to accumulate a huge stockpile of 10 years and then threaten to dump them all if I didn't get my way. I couldn't do that with 1 years, cause those clever Americans would just wait a few months until they matured.
Sorry, that's the best I can do!
Naz/QQQQ/techs/semis weakening into the close. Shorts taking positions. Longs have 5 minutes to bail. Tomorrow the bears take control. I'm short the QQQQ's, don't like NVLS or HPQ either. All IMHO.
Call the PPT! INTC trying to close red! eom
It's the foreign demand for treasuries that's upsetting the equation, isn't it? An inverted yield curve spells recession, but what if the long end is reflecting nothing more than unprecedented supply/demand dynamics, while the short end continues to reflect economic/inflationary concerns? If long and short maturities are now under different influences, should their meeting be considered a "disconnect" rather than an "inversion", and therefore not indicative of an impending recession?
Just thinking out loud. Sure wish I understood this better..
OT - I'm trying to think of some way to comment on his inability to last more than 6 minutes before being done for the day without it coming across with sexual performance overtones... but I can't..<G>
QQQQ: On the 6mo/daily, that April resistance at 37ish looks
very doable. Slipping to lod as I type, semis deteriorating.
Disclosure; short QQQQ's from 38.21
NVLS - Revenue range narrowed, but high estimate not raised. EPS gains derived from cost-cutting (layoffs). B2B down.
Watch out for when the lipstick wears off this pig! I read this as disappointing news.
Short QQQQ at 38.21 Small position, hedge against longs. See y'all Tuesday morning after the NVLS mid-Q.....
Same with Naz, Spy, Iwm. Only the semis are lagging. Market is closed Monday, right? That means no trading after today until after the NVLS mid quarter update at 8:30 Tuesday morning....
edit: all the semis except INTC. Is NVLS gonna warn?
Thanks Joe.
<<< J.P. Morgan analysts on Friday reiterated an
underweight rating on global and U.S. stocks >>>
REITERATED! Translation; We're right, the market's wrong.
<<< saying a deteriorating earnings environment
has the potential to reverse the trend ..... >>>
DETERIORATING EARNINGS ENVIRONMENT? Did they sleep through last quarter's earning reports? Have they looked at any GDP numbers lately? They're not talking about the upcoming summer seasonal weakness, are they?
<<< The brokerage rates Eurozone and Japan at overweight.>>>
ARE THEY JOKING? "Underweight global and U.S., but overweight Europe"??? Somebody gets paid to make these calls? UFB!
Newsflash, JPM, if the U.S. sneezes, Europe's gonna die of the flu!
The story of the day is the JP Morgan prediction of ZERO% S&P earnings growth in '06, but CNBS is ignoring it. Not on Briefing.com either. I'd sure like to hear the rationale for that call!
Interesting observation on NVLS (Wednesday article on short positions); "Notable changes were in names such as Novellus Systems where shares short were down 26% month-over-month."
Hmmmm. In the world of short ratios, a 26% change ain't much.
(PR prop job?) And now NVLS is gonna shut down for a week? What's up with that? And while INTC, QQQQ, and other techs are trying to scratch their way back to even as I type, NVLS and the rest of the SMH are lagging...
Anybody else thinking that an iffy mid-quarter update from NVLS on Tuesday might rattle the markets? And, if it gets everybody worried about what INTC might say, the whole semis goldilocks scenario might evaporate.
That would lay the groundwork for a reversal, wouldn't it?
Opening weakness in INTC and SMH looks like it may spread to broader market. Sellers and shorts emboldened, but volume is still weak. Going into 3 day weekend and eom, look for position squaring and a bit of window dressing. That means danger for anyone shorting the month's big winners - guess who they are...
Someone here uses the tag line, "trade what you see" or something similar. That's all I'm doing. I've been expecting a "sell now" signal for about a week, but since the charts keep saying "not yet", that's what I'm doing (and posting).
QQQQ and SMH : Rsi and Oscillator hit their overbought peak right at the open, prices continued upward while the Rsi and oscillator paused to reset. Selling pressure absorbed, we're still not "reversal-worthy overbought". More up tomorrow. IMHO
Here we go... DJI at hod, Naz at hod, SMH at hod, CSCO at hod. All on very low volume. Just like clockwork...
I'm reminded of an old saying; "Insanity is repeating the same task over and over, each time expecting a different outcome".
< picking tops vs. picking pockets >
Never short a short-covering rally. QQQQ and SMH never closed the gap, now nearing their hod. It's now 2:22, time for the next leg up to begin. (Da Boyz run on a tight schedule!) IMHO
Nice early short covering action. Now the volume has gone "poof" again while Da Boyz let the shorts reposition. Then we start all over again. It's possible today's opening gaps won't fill until the real dump comes. By then the shorts might be reduced to asking "would you like fries with that?"
QQQQ 38.23 +.42 SMH 34.66 +.51 The squeeze is on with no gap fill. This could get ugly for the shorts.
edit: TA is out the window for now. No such thing as overbought anymore. The only strategy is lure in the shorts and then squeeze 'em out, day after day after day.
Disclosure; long and loving it! Just wish I knew where the exit door was... just in case.
The "G" is for sure, the question is whether we "C", or "squeeze". Short interest is very high, a covering panic is possible if we ramp right out of the gate. All IMHO.
The games continue. Fido has zero shortable QQQQ's.... Lots of fuel to burn if Da Boyz engineer a squeeze...
INTC gonna close green again. UFB.
< Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics >
Funniest thing happened to me today. I went to an all politics board to tout my favorite stocks and voice my strongly held convictions about the stock market. They told me to please take my comments to a more appropriate forum.
Can you believe those guys! Sheesh...;)
It's almost 2:22 - somebody ring the rally bell! Time to go green and toast the shorts again!
IWOV; I'm LTBH'ing one chunk at $7.37. Will hold for at least another 2-3 quarters. Good luck to both of us!
< Yesterday was the turn >
We're right at the point where we've been bouncing (QQQQ and SMH). Both gapped down on the open, wouldn't think they'd leave that gap open. How 'bout a quick headfake dump from here to about QQQQ 37.60ish and SMH 33.70ish to get the shorts all excited, and then a reversal up to fill the gap?
Da Boyz wouldn't do that, would they...?
Will the pattern hold? Pre-market and early action red, afternoon green, hod close, all on weak volume... It's the stock market version of the movie "groundhog day"....
edit; talking about techs and semis.
SPY and IWM ramping up to go green into the close. AMAT, INTC and CSCO roaring. Shorts getting toasted again. Same pattern everyday, won't change without volume. IMHO