Empire Building 101
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Doesn't matter to me as long as they are profitable which is my expectation. Quite a range on revenue projections.
Totally would disagree as sales are growing rapid. The fact revenues are down is a direct reflection of wholesale and retail prices down significantly. With that thought in mind pertaining to recession I do agree with less revenues for state coffers you will see more aggressive enforcement of illegal grows. Make no mistake sales are going to grow with or without recession . With so few companies not profitable now is the time to grow as the company is very cash flow positive along with net income. The integration with Starbuds is complete and New Mexico wont take long as it was already well established. Last but not least it is addictive to some while others can function socially. Cash flow alone will totally imo cover some of these smaller acquisitions without affecting cash on hand. Growing companies grab market ongoing and dont try to predict the future but continue the game plan as Dye has done. Also remember their is medical benefits which will gather even more demand. What I see is a very vibrant future for low cost and high end companies growing vertically
A very notable quote which I stand by will make you lots of money which I stand by " do as they do and not by what they say" kind of like "live by the sword or die by the sword" . My 2 cents for today.
If it was a conversion it would end the 12% interest paid and convertible into common stock. All good info
Looking like a conversation should bounce back hard once it is done. Still believe we have the golden ticket
My belief with insider buying is 1/2 things. Either NM is doing better than expectations or new things materializing. Why else would these large holders be adding? Surely hope they have bo intentions of going private which I highly doubt
Be interesting to see what if any news is released on 4/20
Menu
Yahoo
Mail
Indiana: $1B Startup Changing How People Retire
AdSmartAsset
SummaryCompany OutlookConversationsStatisticsHistorical DataProfileFinancialsAnalysisOptionsHoldersSustainability
SHWZ - Medicine Man Technologies, Inc.
Other OTC - Other OTC Delayed Price. Currency in USD
688 reactions on $SHWZ conversation
Sign in to post a message.
Top Reactions
In the Ruff Researchyesterday
SEC fillings last week on April 8th, 2022, demonstrate continued internal support and belief in Schwazze Shares:
Both the CEO (Justin Dye) and a Director (Jeff Garwood) of the Company purchased shares from the open market as follows:
Justin Dye, CEO: 68,355 Common Shares
Jeff Garwood, Director: 5,000 Common Shares
SHWZ remains my favorite Tier 2 undervalued cannabis sector company with the following tailwinds behind it this year:
1. Revenues between $220MM to $260MM
2. EBITDA $70MM to $82MM
3. Additional accretive value created from acquisitions pending and to be announced that are not included in the above figures
4. Continued growth driven by New Mexico Rec Market opening on April 1st, 2022
5. Margin enhancement as cultivation/crops reach harvesting this quarter
6. Operating Cash Flow and EPS positive
7. Optionality should government regulations relax constraints (e.g., SAFE, MORE, etc...)
IRR
More
Bullish
ReplyReplies (1)
3
Thomi5 days ago
CEO filed that he bought 68'355 shares, putting on savings on the table is always a great sign.
ReplyReplies (1)
3
jim13 days ago
Phenomenal earnings report. Combined with possible new legislation this should easily be trading above $25-30 a share now.
ReplyReplies (4)
71
In the Ruff Research12 days ago
Schwazze announced yesterday (after market close) their Q4 2021 and Full Year 2021 results:
*********
This included guidance on 2022 targeting Revenues of between $220MM - $260MM and Adjusted EBITDA between $70MM and $82MM.
*********
This places SHWZ in the top 10 of MSOs based on 2022 Revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA Margin and EPS Estimates.
On an EV/EBITDA and P/E multiple basis, SHWZ is among the most undervalued if not the most undervalued for 2022.
*********
It's important that the 2022 guidance does not include ANY contributions from acquisitions that have not already been closed (e.g., it does not include pending, unannounced, or future acquisitions).
It is fair to say there will be significant numbers of acquisitions which should close by Year-end which will boost these numbers to the high-end of estimates (if not higher).
*********
The Company has seen a recent recovery in its share price but has room to grow significantly as it returns to a post-Covid world where it will begin to meet with investors at roadshows, conferences and meetings now that it has recently uplisted to the NEO exchange.
*********
I would not be surprised if the company closed out the year closer to $275MM and $85MM on pro forma revenue and EBITDA basis as it continues to execute on it's M&A pipeline strategy.
*********
Historically the EBITDA to operating cash flow conversion rate has been approximately 45%, which would translate to approximately $34MM in 2022 operating after-tax free cash flows. Of course, this will vary based on a variety of factors including: product mix and wholesale/retail mix.
*********
The Company has `approximately 144MM fully diluted shares outstanding (which excludes ~9MM warrants held by Justin/Dye Capital which are significantly out of the money and should expire unexercised in the next six months; and also excludes 42.4MM in Convertible Debt Shares since it is treated as Debt).
The breakdown of the approximate 144MM is as follows:
52.4 million shares of common stock outstanding
78.3 million shares of preferred converted as of 12/31/21
8 million warrants outstanding (out of 17MM but ~9MM which is Justin Dye and will expire shortly out of the money since the strike price is $3.5/share)
5.4 million of vested options (out of 9.8MM granted)
*********
With Net Debt of approximately $122MM, this implies an enterprise value of $423MM as of today.
*********
This translates to the following:
a. 2022 Adjusted EBITDA Multiple of between 5x to 6x.
(NOTE: Peer group average is closer to 10x)
b. Between ~13% to ~15% After-tax Operating Free Cash Flow Yield
(Note: Market average is closer to 5 to 6%)
Additionally, the above does not include the benefits of any additional acquisitions (one of which has already been announced and not closed yet, and more to come during this calendar year).
*********
As a result, I narrow and maintain my 12-month Price Target to between $3.5/share with potential upside based on future acquisitions which will likely be accretive.
*********
As always, you should do your own due diligence, make your decisions, and invest at your own risk.
Happy Investing,
IRR
More
Bullish
ReplyReplies (1)
7
Lee12 days ago
The analyst firm that downgraded SHWZ should be put on the bench, and fed warm soup via spoon, from Nurse Rached, from flying out of to coocoo's nest.
Bullish
ReplyReplies (3)
41
David19 days ago
Giddy up !!!
ReplyReplies (2)
4
patrick19 days ago
Looks like listing on the neo is a good move.
Reply
5
BWinston19 days ago
Earning report soon and New Mexico Rec opening up in April.
So lots of news on the front burner.
I would not be surprised if they are being scrutinized by Trulieve and AYR.
More
Reply
2
Marillionaire12 days ago
Here is a link for monthly sales out of Colorado , looks like its returning to pre scamdemic levels of sales
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wE7Z_1q2zxL7-kP0AqlUvL731U3Aui1l/htmlview
Marijuana_Sales_2014_To_Date_Report.xlsx - Google Drive
docs.google.com
Reply
1
BWinston27 days ago
How about a 4th quarter announcement as to when earnings will be released?
ReplyReplies (1)
11
Ilki2 months ago
green in a sea of red today. Very nice to see; we may be finally reaching a turning point. I said previously that I thought 1.50 was the bottom and looks like it may have been correct. Here's hoping.
Doc what is the scoop on Dye's purschase of shares. It was reported that his shares were gifted. Yet a few outlets reported as open market by both insider buys. I questioned the gifted shares as they were various prices which made the $2.05 average where as gifted shares would have been one straight price.
Consolidation continues above $2. All good .
Time to announce next multi dispensary acquisition. We know it is coming.
Good news in NM. Sales,are down in state but our dispensaries are up!
Very good points. Excellent points!
My take extremist on either side are bad. The biggest problem is the far right or left is like the tail is controlling the head. With that said make no mistake I am a Republican but call them as I see them. Hand outs are for the elderly and sick or disabled not for the lazy. Pandemic was a prime example people were quarantined and people rightly objected. Then after it ended refused to work because of it and now felt unsafe in the workplace. People on both sides want it both ways as to play the script to their wants and desires. It has now come to the point where point where opinions seem to have importance over facts.
I agree Dye has it regardless if this do nothing Congress continues to disregard the voice of the people . We need people in there who represents the people and not their politic Male affiliation.
Thx. Wonder why the symbol is mdcl. Also some other transactions were crossed out. A little confusing.
Where are you seeing that dye was awarded these and did not pay for them? I dont see this as the it has various prices with an average of $2.05
Another insider also bought Jeff Garwood(5000) not as many but a buy just the same. Many people have multiple reasons to sell stock but only one reason to buy. Probably not a bad time to add imo.
Probably going to be more buys coming. Really is their any other insiders at the competition buying open market shares? I d9nt think so
Earnings do matter and shareholders of TLRY are coming to that realization today as the stock drops heading to yearly lows. I'm not sure if any mso's have operating earnings other than TCNNF. IMO they are spread to thin.
FWIW, SHWZ has held support of $2 00 after earnings and ready to pop soon. Look at all the stocks within the sector and they are all hovering at yearly lows with continuing operating losses. We have bounced off nicely nicely with a low of $1.26 and a high of around $3.
Earnings do matter!
I have to comment on the TLRY earnings. Another loss on operating income and the excitement it created. They lost almost $18Mil on operations. That is where I got a little excited on SHWZ earnings when they report a gain on derivatives. However when it was pointed out very clearly that they had a very nice operating income of .04 I changed my tune immediately. We are golden against all of these mso's as each acquisition has to be accretive. With more eyes on this and the volume improving significantly we are so primed for a breakout it is becoming imminent . Earnings do matter
I have on occasion called analyst ANALyst for a reason. We have one calling for $26 mil in revenues for q1. With all the completed and fast growing completed deals this is just stupid. It's not like they closed on March 31.
GL in the tournament. Kick ass and take no names.. like in willy Wonka I believe we have the golden ticket
Brilliant acquisition. With consolidation happening almost weekly obvious we become a target. Hundreds in line. Gotta love it!
Unfriggen believable.
From the read I gathered the biggest portion of the miss was Purplebee's while StarBuds was down but overall very strong. They did say Co. would be challenging this year but felt their was ample opportunity to exploit throughout the state.
FWIW, with prices down considerable at whole and retail that should hit the small operators rather hard. Hopefully Dye can and will capitalize on these opportunities which I believe he was referring too.
That game is played more often then not but most ANALyst.
Seeking alpha has the transcripts for q4. Under earnings they had 04 for the q. with a .02 beat. Excellent read and I will say it again NM is the silver lining. This is the 3rd q being profitable. This may not be $10 year end but the projectory is up and will continue. At $2 this imo is absolutely safe money.
Surprized by Dye comment about future acquisitions no comment based on legal. He did mention the criteria for any acquisition.
I have not bought many shares as of late but am going to add significant to my large stack. A starting next next week Q4 real earnings in my mind with the gain on derivatives confused me.
Suggest everyone read transcripts on Seekongalpha.
PS surprised Purplebee's was hit as hard as it was. However, management says those numbers are coming back also.
Holding $2 will be very positive.
Yes it was. The point was it was/is severely undervalued compared to fundamentals.
Agree and will see this through as Dye's dream of $100 pps becomes a reality.
I'm good with your last sentence paraphrasing they can pay their bills and continue to pay down debt. As I have said I believe the silver lining is NM. Also strongly believe we have our 3rd multi-state sooner than later. Synergies are obviously kicking in as lower revenues 18% were offset nucely which does stick out in a big way.
So really they lost money on a operational basis per GAAP as I said they would and was trashed by the board. Glad NM is rec as that imo is the silver lining.
Guess that is why a great CFO is essential to the success and future. I've seen cfo's get hired and the pps goes up substantially even with Fortune 500 co.'s. She is definitely tip notched and FWIW Dye's right hand.
Did she explain the gain on the derivatives to your satisfaction? I'm honestly a little confused. Looking forward to reading the transcripts when they are out.
With NM going legal in a matter of hours q2 will be life changing for co.
All is well Doc. I assumed with lower revenues even the margins would come down as any business minded professional would have expected and factoring in fixed costs. I was wrong as somehow despite my call for the reduced revenues. Nancy very clearly stated the new grow would have minimal impact. Ignore if you want it was based on the info I had.
Please Doc I said revenues would drop and predicted a loss based on the numbers from Co. state regulators which publish monthly figures and provided a link. I was right with the revenues but wrong on net income.
Also take note what I said yesterday about Non Gaap earnings.
That was Dec.31 look for less ending q1 as the closings and cash paid for a quisitions.
This management will do what the dems can't. Patience is the key and believe me this will be a hell of a ride over the next 9 months. Yes there will be bumps.
While I was severely chastised for calling lower revenues when the revenues dropped precipitously from Aug. to year end in Co I now feel vindicated.
But with that call I also was expecting break even best case scenario with an expectation of a loss. Could have been more wrong if I tried! Never saw earnings coming in as they did.
Highlighted on revenues. E everyone continues to focus on revenues while little else while this management focus is both. Revenues were down because the whole state was down...and they pull out record profits.
Well Co. revenues are turning around and q1 will be another blowout.
Smoke on that Alan. This is only the beginning innings. One year or less $10+
Revenues very light compared to estimates. However, margins significantly higher. This really bores great for q1 and beyond.Notice the range is quite wide for revenues.
.17 net income on a $2 stock. Look for this to run hard as this soaks in. A big shout for management on q4. We could very possibly see $1 in earnings per share this year! Surely SCG will really impact q1 and going forward.
For awhile I was somewhat skeptical. Not anymore. Management is so focused on the customer imo above and beyond. What you posted so much emphasis has been placed on quality and promotions to get the customers an experience that are favorable.
Dye has refined the processes and the management to carry out these accretive acquisitions to NOT rock the boat but give them the resources needed to accomplish set goals.
I worked for a Fortune 100 company and everytime they made an acquisition they couldn't wait to bring in their own "team" and always f-ed up. This is a huge Plus with this management.
I have a very good friend who is a billionaire...not millionaire. I asked him what was the key to his success and his answer was "hire the best and pay them well enough so no one steals them away." He also mentioned the employment contract...lol I am now convinced Dye is in that camp and it will set well as this story continues to unfold.