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My version I consider more simple and relevant:
1. the whole convertible from beginning to end, a little over 12 months
2. rights offering which was due to could not do decent financing after convertible
So no satisfactory financing was achieved for last 3 full years.
Now, the Plan. Does it end the 3 year death spiral or signal at some future point the end of the death spiral? Only the shadow knows
To go to the heart of the matter, it is investor responsibility to come out a winner or a mild loser. The company played at its unfairest with the offering scam as bod/management should have bought ZERO, should have stated that the runup towards $10 was a trap but even then it happened somewhat quickly. The entirely ethical thing to do would have been to cancel the offering and refund, but ethics is the luxury of fair weather enterprises. The vast majority of people who were put in the same position as the pseudo Goddess would likely disappoint mightily.
The moral for investors is to look for opportunity here through proper due diligence, which certainly includes knowledge of geometric levels of dilution
To digest the impact of this deal is going to take time. Probably the first solid knowledge will be if June reveals full enrollment but the company never gives detailed information on enrollment counts.
Maybe UK or Netherlands will open up purse strings for reimbursement
Depends on if geometric planning is called for which is tied to quarterly financial status reports, news, and stock price.
Geometrically I believe it is 1 billion even, not 1.1 B.
Step 1, already over 10 fold
Step 2, another 10 fold sends over 100 million
Step 3, another 10 fold would do the charm
Conversely price has declined from $2.50 to $3.00, down to 25 cents to 30 cents, so danger Will Robinson if price is 2.5 cents to 3 cents
I was a close observer for all 4. One should have trotted away on the first 2. On the last 2, one should have sprinted away.
Of course reverse split talk does not apply until/if outstanding shares break 100 Million count which may easily happen. Quietly since last, outstanding shares of around 900K have grown over 10 fold to 10.5 million last count
Death spirals are hard to break out of. Generally one should just flat run away when companies talk reverse split, Voting NO and holding/buying is the definition of insanity.
I believe this technology may turn out to be commercially good. I think best case several years to have $100 million revenue annually, time may tell
First target is whether 100 million outstanding barrier is broken or a rescue low ball offer or bankruptcy or this deal leads to surprise sweeteners sooner rather than later, complicated speculation
Then stock price movement adds to the guessing game
If I was kicking tires, the test run would be revenue growth. In the mean time, the testing must look relatively inexpensive
It is the land of guesses. The one thing I fully believe is they completely understand delcath's financial problems so they are looking ahead and have a plan. Nice speculation so I am playing cautious but interested
Simpson to shareholders is like a shark to swimmers. She hates no one, she is hungry. She likes the ocean or technology. Cash flow is still iffy, but a big boy sees real potential, that's the biggie
It is unethical to expect a desperate company to be ethical. The company did a scam with a little "s". A SCAM would be if revenues or trials were not real.
Primary risk imo is excessive dilution. I would love to know more about ICC potential, but based on history probably enrollment will be more likely to complete in September. If you take another read of clinicaltrials.gove, it is likely 12 month from full enrollment to completed trial. Maybe FDA will surprise saying start submission early.
My best guess thus is Sep 2020 for end of trial and possibly Sep 2021 before approval.
I think the only path to 2019 buyout is delcath has to be saved by a low ball offer which still might be profitable from this price, but nobody knows
I like the odds that there is opportunity here, but when and the dilution side of equation could lead to 100 million shares or more.
If full enrollment by June, then a hard target is developed of 10 months until delcath shines its light. Based on 2010 history, starting Jan 2020 the stock could turn red hot on a 4 month countdown
So full enrollment may make for the 2nd punch of a 2 step turn around with Europe being first step.
Actual buy out, why not early or mid 2020?
It is impossible to put much faith in clinical forecasts but even with, next 6 months is very vulnerable to high dilution. Therefore no way to know if current price is a bargain, but buy out is now back on the table. I doubt if in 2019 though, so off the table for now imo.
They are not getting a large flat rate per year. The only thing that is clear is risk of bankruptcy should be considered much lower. Most warrants are still on the table to my knowledge so very large dilution is quite possible. I bought small, I will not buy big unless there is a clear path to a significant target price
yes that is the exact number of shares, I need to be careful about forecasts as it is like trying to nail water to a board
Europe story looks more encouraging than ever, right? Phase 3 is far less than thrilling, if company keeps latest schedule, then for the first time under Simpson era June 2019 will be significant.
Slow buying for those interested my recommendation. I put in $2,000 recently knowing impossible to forecast anything on future timeline
Bankruptcy has been a legitimate fear maybe starting with sad May 2013 Odac meeting. Smart investors imo just stayed completely clear last 5 1/2 years. There is now reason for hope, but the path is not clear
$1.75 bogus scheme. Bad for investors, but good for company. Same proven by reverse splits. A big company interested means a lot. Supposedly others have in past bought on a regular basis. That is the way to go as this is a company that throws tricky curve balls
I am heading out of town so it will be interesting to observe on return. I am assuming without research that European revenue expectations are good but great would be a surprise to me. Great would be $10 million gross before split of royalties for the year 2020. I can't assess on just reading press release whether the risk side is dramatically reduced, but could be
questions for researchers. What will this deal take revenue in Europe to, $4 million annually would be a step to look for. I suspect $5 or $6 million annually is needed for this to be positive to delcath bottom line.
If $3 million up front, that does not solve financing but maybe a baby step forward as there is no secret delcath needs help
I am going to argue the Goddess has set a new low for delcath, not for 2017 actions, but for being part of a process that deceived people to put up $1.75 on rights
Yes and No on filings. Noteholders are likely going with selling shares from 1 cent warrants. Not bad to pay 1 cent and sell for over 20 cents.
They might be fans of the technology as am I somewhat. I am very skeptical though that delcath could ever be profitable, it is just not what so many hoped so long ago. For the sake of most investors/speculators, it is too bad the company has survived the last few years
Lawsuits and criminal violations are separate imo. I believe noteholders pushed the price to $10 very easily, also insider buys were not done in good faith imo, which reflects on members of bod.
So I see unethical behavior to remain alive as dirty, Hobbs who was hated very much never stooped to such lowly tactics imo.
I expect more posts during a downward movement as most of us give a vote of no confidence for this company imo. Survival is more likely than profitability long term. Nobody can predict a permanent bottom if there ever will be, be nice for some if 25 cents represents an all time bottom, but I surely doubt
Stock price is on a rare winning streak but on the raising money front, it is not a pretty history
better financial picture than I expected, but I forecast massive rate of dilution with a long ways to the 1 billion authorized but time will likely take there at a rapid pace
I expect a full 80 patients to be enrolled with at least 6 months treatment before the submission process could start which is expensive and could take about 6 months to complete.
My guess current count is likely no more than 50 patients if that, otherwise a desperate Goddess would be shouting the current count from the roof tops
Took a week vacation. It is definitely a death spiral until IF and WHEN the company can prove otherwise. What the heck, 2 percent chance of a graceful exit by mid 2019 and then maybe a little justifiable boom
It is healthy to see this as a speculation like other speculative stocks. The insiders are trying to lure investors, they knew it was a horrible buy at $1.75, legal entrapment. It is entrapment because there is no real merits fundamentally currently. Why would people believe in the $100 m enticement filing after $50M rights failure? The scam is created in the mind, such is speculative investing
If they bought in open market, insiders should have their heads examined for paying too much. They are not buys of full integrity, insiders that make special buys in the normal course of the stock market pay good prices
I am not going to read again the old filing but $1.75 was rights deal I believe. They knowingly probably knew it was a failed deal, ie paltry money. They are just camouflaging an obvious head fake. That is not fraud, but I do doubt if they overly believe this technology will ever fly
Insider buying is a joke. 5 fold can never be accurately predicted, but pure gambling, nothing more
Hard research is sometimes not needed. Commonsense says insider buys and backstop deal are not worth talking about. Very comfortable on sidelines until if and when company proves it can achieve more success than keeping snout from drowning
I certainly believe Simpson would be interested in acceleration out of this mess, the odds though are higher for enrollment issues than FDA allowing data on less than 80 patients from trial. Dilution of the highest order lays closely in wait
If the company stays alive, we will find out eventually more about enrollment. Best case if 80 enrolled by end of June, maybe end of 2019 for end of trial, then end of 2020 for actual approval.
I see no path for shortcuts, good that those FDA around the corner posts are in decline. 2019 has a chance to be a good year for the stock, but at least through March 2019 there might be appalling, really appalling levels of dilution
I don't own any currently. When the stock zoomed and I did partial selling in 2010, I was at about $250K as the largest position I have ever held in a stock. I would rather stick with what I know, and let the current crop of risk takers jump from one speculation to another
I am always ready to buy this company, if only some financing progress, bad to unbelievably bad financing deals historically
The evidence is absolutely overpowering that the technology is real. It is commonsense that Simpson would like the technology to succeed. The burden in fact is on all who voted NO and obstinately believed that delcath was a buyout candidate. Besides severe market cap and financing issues, the real concern would be enrollment rate. Does Simpson really believe it is probable with money to complete enrollment of 80 patients by mid year? Obviously to date enrollment rate has been a huge failure, so the market was right to trample this company to a low market cap