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If Ntephe would do his job as CEO this statement would not be painfully accurate, "new buyers are few as well as patient."
As a potential buyer I refuse to touch this until the details of the Kosmos deal are made public. Ntephe acts like he is still in the 5th grade... it's sad. At a time when he needs every investor he can get, he fumbles the announcement and leaves out the details.
Unbelievable.
Do the math Degen...
ERHE had a market cap of $75M before the toxic misjudgment Ntephe and Odobulu chose to inflict on us. That was with $10M in the bank. Back when they were drilling in the JDZ that ran to up to $700M.
The reverse will leave us with 30M shares out. Can the run into drilling return the market cap of the past? Assuming the sale of the EEZ block fixes the cash problem... I think $200M+ is reasonable going into Kenyan drilling.
$200M / 30M shares = $6.66 share price.
Getting to a better exchange is well within reach. I suspect that you are WELL aware of that. Good luck. For now until drilling is going to be nothing less than chasing it up.
You are probably right, but to the detriment of legacy shareholders. *Any* merger scenario destroys us. Don't forget that there are people that paid nearly a buck a share many years ago. If they're still in, and I think some of them are, ERHC needs a market cap of $3 BILLION for those shares to BREAK EVEN.
Do you see a merger valuing the company at $3 BILLION? If you do you need to share what you're smoking.
The ONLY way for those that supported this company for the last decade to see *anything* worthwhile is for them to discover oil AS ERHC ENERGY, not as a wart on the left butt-cheek of a vastly larger company.
Really? I mean REALLY? Ntephe's only "move" for a decade is to collect a check and screw the shareholders.
Peter Ntephe is a self serving sociopath... note the high profile "look at me propose to my wife" video. He doesn't care one bit for anyone but himself. He judge's his success by his own vanity, not by his accomplishments. In the business world, to date, he is a disasterous failure. In his eyes, winning the girl, and recording it for all to see, makes him a success. In his world, that's real. In the real world, it isn't.
When his wife-to-be receives the "success" he has delivered us... she will face what we face. How to proceed is his choice and only his.
How long can these wanna-be executives continue with this inadequate crap?
The single most important piece of information is what did they get for the block? All we hear is crickets chirping. No info given.
The second most important piece of information is what does "while preserving a financial upside in the event that exploration in Block 11 is successful" mean to shareholders? It sounds like they retained an ORR, but there's no mention of that or how much. More crickets chirping.
It is maddening because these two points are the most critical MATERIAL points concerning this agreement and they were INTENTIONALLY left out of the announcement. It looks like Ntephe is still leading the company with the intent to destroy investor confidence.
Or are they really, REALLY, that incompetent? Or are they so immoral that this kind of deception by omission is okay with them?
Ntephe makes ERHE more of a joke every single day that he retains his job, IMO.
To the loyal followers, don't clutter the board with replies. This is my 1 post on the subject. I rarely come here anymore and likely would never see your posts.
Good luck to you all.
The elephant in the room that cannot be addressed until after the fact is; how many shares does this "strategic investor want and for how much of a strategic investment?
Any purchases now could fly into the stratosphere or crater into the abyss... or anything in between.
Buying now is a bet on double zero green, only with worse odds, IMO.
I respect your undeniable brass display, but I am waiting to see what "cost" the alluded to "strategic buyer" will extract from all of us.
The destructive duo's buying suggests it will be minimal, but it is the destructive duo's actions that have buried long term supporters. They can't be trusted.
Well said!
After! Pre-split would be a nickel with 3B out.
Spud by 3/31 by any reasonable definition. Not by the end of the year. I'd love to be wrong on this and I hope you're right though!
"DEFINITION of 'Spud'
In the oil and gas industry, the process of beginning to drill a well. Initially a larger drill bit is used to drill a surface hole, which is lined with casing and cement to protect groundwater. After the surface hole is completed, the main drill bit is inserted and the well is drilled to the total depth."
Please stop saying this unless you can substantiate it, "our first well will begin drilling probably before year end"
The company has said drilling will begin by the end of first quarter, 2016. That's March, 2016.
If you can substantiate your claim, by all means do!
Consider this scenario jsc52033:
- The reverse happens and ERHC has 30M shares outstanding.
- The "strategic investor" buys 30M + 1 share to have a majority and pays $10M to the company.
Does that sound a little rich? Based on todays close the share price after the RS will be 14 cents. $10M for 30M + 1 shares is 33 cents per share. That is **NOT** and outrageous premium for majority control, IMO.
ERHC ends up being a company with 60M shares outstanding and $10M cash in the bank going into drilling. Where will it trade?
It had a market cap of $75M before the debt fiasco and no drilling in sight. Is $150M crazy? That's $2.50 per share...
Stay tuned. The exec's bought for a reason, as will the strategic investor. STP-EEZ deal coming... eventually. JDZ resurgence? Chad partner? Success in Kenya drilling?
Just for fun... ERHC had a market cap of $750M going into JDZ drilling. That's $12.50 per post split share. I don't see it getting there on Kenya hope alone, but there are many things that could happen to reach that level, and drilling success would blow right by that number and keep going.
They should and will if that offer is legit.
We will see. Jean Clude Gandur was dumbfounded by the numbers China was willing to pay, and he sold the company into that.
Not all cultures are focused on immediate gratification. Several advanced countries focus on the long term.
The U.S. and it's people do not. That's why you see the U.S. with 19 TRILLION in debt and countries like China and India buying oil and planning for the future.
The U.S. is toast. Washington only cares about lining their own pockets at the nations expense.
The article says, clearly, that India is willing to pay $2.7 billion for TEN PERCENT of Tullow's 600M barrel find, valuing it at $27B dollars. That's $45 per barrel. The article further says that that number is likely to change because current appraisal drilling should boost the proven to over 1 billion barrels.
That $2.7B is only going up. the LAPSSET pipeline has turn black gold into tangible, shiny, REAL gold.
That's the Kaabooom, and the math is why management is buying... lots of shares.
645 million estimate is UNRISKED. If they get 200M barrels it will be a huge success.
Could be the post of the year! lol!
Clever. That could be taken either way.
IMO, the reverse split isn't just about hitting the limit, it's about growing up and looking like a real, viable investment.
3 billion shares outstanding for a company with less than a dozen people is ridiculous... I'm being generous by not mentioning this company is controlled by Nigerians. Nigeria does NOT have a good reputation.
So yeah, here we are. We're going down to a very sensible 30M shares outstanding. ERHC is setting up for prime time, IMO.
Have I mentioned this may be why the exec's are buying?
This stock isn't going down post split because the only dilution post split will be a meaningful cash infusion from the often mentioned "strategic investor".
Prior to the catastrophic blunder with convertible debt, this stock was at 10-12 cents. Post split that would be 10-12 dollars. So post split this stock will be 10-12 cents, but *should* be 10-12 dollars.
Could this be why management is buying?
I rechecked it, per your request. It's flawless. The only variable is how many shares the "strategic investor" gets post split.
I WAG'ed 30 million. That's 33 cents per post split share with a $10M investment. It is looking like the share price will be in the 10-15 cent range post split, so it's even possible that the cash is higher or the shares are lower.
You can't just pay market price to own a majority!
Please be more specific than a rotten tomato thrown from the back row like "re-check your math".
My math is sound, so what is your disagreement?
Yes. 1 for 100. No date yet. Still haven't scheduled the shareholder vote on it.
$45 per barrel is related and HUGE!
India is offering FORTY FIVE DOLLARS per barrel for a piece of Tullows discovery in Kenya.
If ERHC's unrisked estimates of 645M barrels across all leads in their Kenya block end up finding 200M barrels ERHC should trade north of $50 (post split)
ERHC's 35% of 200M barrels would be 70M barrels. At $45 per barrel that's $3.15B
Post split they'll have 30M shares outstanding. I assume the *strategic* investor would want a majority, so double that to 60M shares.
$3.15B / 60M = $52.50 per share.
It's no wonder the executives are buying!
The reason India is willing to pay $45 per barrel is that pipeline being built. It's huge for ERHC for the same reason.
Do the math, part 2...
Unrisked estimates for all leads: 645M barrels
Just for giggles, let's say they find 200M barrels.
ERHC's percentage is 35%. 0.35 * 200 = 70M barrels
70M barrels * $45 = $3.15B
After the split they'll have 30M shares out. ASSUMING this "strategic investor" they keep talking about gives them enough cash to get through drilling for a 51% stake there will be 60M + 1 shares outstanding.
$3.15B / 60M = $52.50 per share.
Does anyone need MORE reason to understand why the exec's are buying?
"Tullow's 2012 exploration and appraisal drilling success rate was 74% around double the industry average;"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tullow_Oil
Do the math...
"Bharat Petroleum eyes Tullow Oil’s Kenya Acreage
by OilNews
India’s Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) is rumoured to be in talks with Tullow oil to acquire 10 percent stake in Blocks 10BB and 13T where the London explorer has discovered over 600 million barrels.
According to India’s energy website khabarindia reports that BPCL could be ready to cough about $2.7 billion giving the resource a valuation of $27 billion.
The new site which quotes an anonymous source says the Indian explorer which has interest in Mozambique could be hoping to ride on the low crude oil prices.
This price is however expected to change with the next resource evaluation expected to place the valuation at over one billion barrels of oil following ongoing appraisal work. "
$27B / 600M barrels = $45 per barrel, undeveloped!!
Tamtam
Click here
So now Krom is a hit man to the toxic squad trying to drum up support for the dilution insurance? LOL!
You clearly haven't been around here long enough.
"but eventually that is eclipsed when they get to see stupidity, greed and criminality one time too many!"
I'm guessing you were in the drama club in high school?
That is how I interpreted Global's post as well. I checked 4 different sites to find a 0.0022 buy or sell and couldn't.
It would have been MUCH clearer if he said, "Did everyone see that 2 share trade?"
instead of:
"Did everyone see the 0.0022 trade"
Keep in mind, ERHC traded as high as $0.99 after being awarded the JDZ blocks...
If we can get a 99,000% run we'll be right back there!
Kinda puts this mess into perspective, doesn't it?
Ntephe should be fired.
I am still looking for a MERGER scenario where we don't get screwed. Not a strategic investor scenario. They said a MERGER could be in play.
DEFINITION of 'Merger':
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/merger.asp
Any acquiring company large enough to provide ERHC with the cash it needs will also be large enough that the shares we receive won't move noticeably if oil is discovered. ESPECIALLY after losing 99% of our shares to the reverse split.
FWIW, I have the bashing crowd and Krom ignored. Too much bloviating. Anyone else?
All pre-split shares. Ntephe's 40M become 400K, Odobulu's 60M become 600K, and they get decimated with further dilution just like the rest of us. But, as I said in the past, if the deceptive duo used corporate funds to buy those shares to sucker in more buyers, who cares? They wouldn't... it wasn't their money.
I have been a supporter, albeit sometimes a grumpy one, of ERHC management for almost a decade. They lost me when those chose to wipe out the market cap, intentionally, with a dozen waves of convertible debt at a 40% discount. They killed it on purpose. My distrust for them was cemented with their scam-style gagging of the transfer agent. They are not trustworthy.
I'm not buying shares until Ntephe and Odobulu are gone. They are deceitful snakes.
Dr. J, this is exactly correct...
"The problem we had this year was the share price decline factor"
The discrepancy between the dilution factor of 4 and the decline factor of 400 is a total loss in confidence in Peter Ntepha and Sylvan Odubulu.
There is no other explanation. They'll have to pull off a MASSIVE positive for *anyone* to forget what they have done.
ssc. correction...
They will have 2.97B shares, not 2.7B.
I know what you are thinking with Kaboom and the idea has merit. However, let's clarify the mountain ahead for this company...
A little over a year ago the market cap was $75M and it traded at 10 cents.
*If* the shares stay at this level until the split it will once again trade in the 10 cent range... but to restore the market cap to $75M, which don't forget was a 90% drop from the highs of 2009, it will have to run from 10 cents to $2.50.
...and that is to restore the market cap to where it was after the 90% fall! This thing is so far down the toilet it's hard to comprehend the monumental run that will have to occur... just to get to year ago decadal lows.
It's sickening.
Blah, blah, blah... do something. Blah, blah, blah... you can't do anything.
You sound like middy. LOL!
A 100 for 1 split *multiplies* how many shares we each have by 100.
"The adoption of a one hundred-for-one reverse stock split "
Do they ever get **ANYTHING** right???
If the BOD would slap the lawyer hat off of Ntephe and demand that he wear the leadership hat of a CEO this wouldn't be a problem:
"people who understand what the R/S is ultimately for "
We need information. Detailed information. Lot's of it.