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So here is some short interest data that may interest nobody.
I guess one reason we saw less short covering from 10/1 thru 10/13 is because we saw less volume than the previous reporting period. I should have factored this into my expectations for today, but didn't pay enough attention to this fact.
9/15-9/29
VOL: Approx. 16.27M
Shorts Covered: Approx. 1.57M
Percentage of Volume: 10.36%
10/1-10/13
VOL: Approx. 9.03M
Shorts Covered: Approx. 600K
Percentage of Volume: 6.66%
So volume was down and short covering was down from previous period. We can't assume the cover percentage is linear. Shorts need volume and real selling to cover, a lot of it. So as volume increases, so may their ability to convert a higher percentage of that volume for covering.
So in hindsight, maybe today's number was about as good as I should have expected. We'll see what Nov 9th brings.
Good news is that short interest is now the 2nd lowest it's been since August 31, 2015.
Bad news is, or not so good news (to me) is that I wanted to see a smaller number closer to 7M. In return for getting punched in the face every day since 9/11, I would really like to see the short interest shrink a bit faster than this.
Of course, I should know by know that shorts will try to disguise this covering frenzy for as long as possible. So now we wait until Nov 9th.
I am confused. I thought you just recently bought an extra 50K shares? And didn't you say you put an extra $100K or something into ADXS instead of your pool back in June?
The timing is no doubt interesting. I am very curious to see the report released today.
MM2K,
Possible. But having watched the volume and price action closely since the June selloff, while there has been tremendous volume, I am not (yet) seeing actual evidence of mass dumping.
However, we only have the benefit of hindsight since the reporting is delayed. But from end of June thru end of Sep, one of the highest volume periods in ADXS history, we saw 43M shares trade and saw 2.2M shorts cover, and saw 1.3M Tute shares lost. So basically Shorts and Tutes were 7%-8% of the overall volume.
That suggests major HFT activity by a consortium of hedge funds working together.
Maybe what we have seen during October will turn out to be different. I can't say until I see the reports. But I can say that the blocks and volume and crazy Bid / Ask jumping around looks very similar to what I watched over the summer before getting confirmation on the 3rd Qtr reports in Sep and Oct.
I may not be right. I am not trying to offer a blanket defense, I am just trying to be objective.
Notice the PPS today after the uptick rule was invoked? The selling slide stopped somewhat and the PPS has leveled off (for now).
Real selling, real dumping, doesn't care about the stupid uptick rule. Only short sellers do who are trying to crash the price and create panic selling care about the uptick rule, because it makes it more difficult for them to manipulate the Bid / Ask and drop the PPS off a cliff.
I am not happy about the PPS either. Hopefully it gets better sooner than later. I do wish you the best personally.
Maple,
It surprises how no matter how many times the facts are laid out they are ignored.
Someday in January, once the 4th Qtr Tute numbers are final, we may have evidence that "someone is selling big." However, we know that really wasn't true from end of June thru end of Sep. We also know that the last short report showed 1.6M shares covered.
Yes, because that is exactly what multi billion dollar hedge funds that are experts in the Biotech arena do.
First they decide they no longer believe in a company.
Second, they decide to keep holding and wait and not sell anything until the PPS is near a bottom or at the bottom.
Third, even after deciding to sell and get out, and even though the stock keeps going lower, they decide to stretch out their selling over days and weeks. They want to extend their selling as long as possible, so that they can increase their losses and take much bigger losses than they would versus if they just cut bait and sold out months ago.
Makes perfect sense.
If I was the CEO of ADXS, I would be lining up appearances on CNBC, FOX Business News, CNN Money, etc trying to shine a bright light on the trading activity in ADXS since the summer.
I would also be engaging resources to work directly pestering the SEC and FINRA for trading records and activity logs.
And just to screw them back I would announce that we were considering strategic alternatives, and a sale of the entire company was a possibility.
But the fact that ADXS has been as quiet as a church mouse, during the most vicious and sustained assault on their most precious currency needed for survival (their PPS) makes me really wonder.
Naïve? Incompetent? Complicit? I don't know, but I find none of those answers appealing. Although if it's the 3rd one, then things might work out for those of us who hold thru this. Or not.
Well said. The most amazing thing I have seen here is that they can literally do whatever they want with this. They can take it up or down 10% to 15% a day whenever they choose.
What I don't understand is how something so obvious is not also that obvious to ADXS BOD and Management. Are they so naïve as to not recognize all the classic signs in the extreme? Are they doing anything to fight back or report this? Or are they complicit and the extended silence from them is time they are giving for cover?
At this point I am really starting to wonder.
It has now been invoked for rest of today and tomorrow.
http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary/stock-market/uptick-rule-5173
Get this, Bernie Madoff was big reason the uptick rule was eliminated in 2004. He was the leading proponent of eliminating it. Of course later we find out after the collapse of his Ponzi scheme his connections to short hedge funds, some of them linked to Russian organized crime and what's left of the American mafia.
Real sellers don't care about the uptick rule. When they want out they just sell. And they don't stretch their selling out over weeks and weeks and weeks. Only short sellers care about the uptick rule, because it creates an obstacle they have to work around to crash the price. The uptick rule doesn't offer bullet proof protection, but it does make it harder for blatant manipulation.
The one constant since the major attack started in June is that the uptick rule has been protected, and once invoked has largely stopped and reversed the current attack cycle. I mean to say, I think that signaled when the short cabal was finished their current cycle. On the last day or so they didn't care that they invoked it.
This has been the only real hint we have that the majority of the volume since June was likely either shorts increasing their position or trying to crash the stock to force selling and cover.
This is what the numbers from 43M shares traded proved from end of June thru end of Sep. We have yet to see the data for the 4th Qtr, which unfortunately we won't get until early next year.
So this could be different, or it could be more of the same, unfortunately we will be the last to know the truth.
I see perfectly well what is happening to the PPS. And yes, I most certainly wish I had gotten the hedge fund memo back in July 2015 telling me in advance that everybody was in on the big short except for me.
However, what is done is done, and now I have to determine if I should continue to hold here. I might be making a big mistake, but this takedown is just too perfect and seems too contrived to actually be about the science.
But time will tell. I won't know anything more until the end of today.
The timing sure seems odd doesn't it? We'll see.
So for weeks the selling has been relentless, but very organized and controlled, almost never hitting 10% and never invoking the uptick rule. 2% to 5% a day. Drip, drip, drip.
Today is different. Large volume and crash right from the open. Went as high at 8.87% down almost right away. But then they backed off and stopped the crash. Again, there they go protecting that uptick rule again. They don't appear to want to let it get triggered too early in the day.
But typically, since the June takedown and since 9/11 when they have finally let the uptick rule get triggered, it has marked the end of one of their takedown cycles.
Why the close to 10% crash today when any day over the last 2 weeks the same thing could have happened? What is special about today that seems to have increased the selling frenzy right from the start versus the normal end of day takedowns we've been watching for the past couple of weeks?
Will be interesting.
It's not just ADXS, it's all professional shorting in the HFT era of the last decade, especially in Biotech.
These guys work together in networks and can short and drive down the PPS with impunity using a series of HFT machines and algos that can generate shares many times the true volume of a stock, some of it is naked shorting and by creating trades back and forth to each other they can avoid failure to deliver notices.
I rarely see these big short contingents get burned anymore unless they get too aggressive and the company just says screw it and sells themselves.
The true crime is that the government and the SEC allow loopholes so large that these short hedge funds can drive 18 Wheelers thru them. It's a license to print money, or should I say a license to legally steal other people's money.
I have the Form 4 showing sales at 9/22, 9/25, and 9/26? So yes, the first sales would have been included in the 10/10 report.
The 600K sale on 10/11 will show up in the 10/24 report tomorrow...assuming it was used to cover a short.
We have our theories about the Big Short and cover taking place, but we still need to see some additional actual documented proof of it.
I mean some evidence besides the circumstantial crazy PPS action where it's clear somebody is trying to just drive this into the ground as fast and as brutally as possible.
In one of the highest volume 2 weeks periods in the company's existence (9/15 to 9/29), they were able to close 1.6M shorts (they technically started this cover operation on 9/11).
So personally I would be thrilled with anything under 7M tomorrow. Closer to 6.5M or even below would be a huge bonus.
Yes, that is what happens to retail sometimes. And maybe we'll see it be too late here too.
But while I have seen and been involved in Bio crashes before, I have never seen one like this. This one is unique.
And the way they are doing it makes me more curious than worried. This take down has been almost scripted too perfectly in my opinion. It reminds me of those crime shows where the crime to so perfect, it's too perfect, and was actually a frame job.
And to be clear, that is not a Buy recommendation. That is just my own view speaking for my own position. Time will tell if I should have been more concerned and gotten out at $6.50.
I hear you and I am with you on that. I am also like 80/20 convinced this massive crash was brought to us by the cabal that has controlled this stock for almost 3 years now.
It's not just the timing, and it's not just the takedown itself. It's the way they have crashed it. This is theater. They are intentionally dragging this out and making sure it only bleeds out a little each day.
I think they want to crush out hope and remove every dollar of margin in the stock. One way or the other they are going to be sure they are not covered until every retail shareholder out there has nothing on margin and is either forced to sell or meet the margin call. Margin has to be $0 or close to it by now.
Tomorrow's short report will be interesting for sure.
Yep, it may not offer solace to anyone, but they have intentionally crashed this at the close for going back a week or so. You can see Bid/Ask activity ramp up between 3:35 and 4:00 as they start screwing around and just dropping the Bid. They are setting it up for the next morning.
The reason they have carefully protected against invoking the uptick rule, is because it allows them to control the Bid and Ask via HFT.
It's both disgusting and amazing to watch at the same time. I had no idea how truly and completely fake the stock market was until I owned this stock. It's stunning.
Maybe. It is possible the facts will prove that at some point. But so far, as of yet, they don't.
Another oddly logical element here.
If they are really trying to crush and drive out true retail shareholders, think how many of us bought Warrants under $1.50 and Shares under $4? I am thinking a bunch. I know I got plenty down there in 2013 and early 2014.
They may try to take this to $2.74 before they are done.
Either way, I am not selling a share or warrant down here. Might be stupid, but that's where I'm at.
I should add, I am not buying anything yet either. I want to see short interest drop to 7M or below tomorrow, and drop under 6M by next month.
Dude, no disrespect but what do you mean? They won huge. The shares they didn't cover at $4.50 and $4 they will cover at $3.50.
They are determined to try and create a selling crash. They will try to take this to $2 to get what they want.
They absolutely own this stock.
I don't say that with any joy.
Yep. They are doing this because they can. They are fully committed to crashing this as low as they can.
I am not sure where this ends, but for right now it appears there is no entity interested in stepping in front of them and blocking this.
And unfortunately, all we have heard is mostly crickets from ADXS for months now. We did get that awesome PowerPoint presentation.
Tomorrow is shaping up to be a short term binary event. If short interest has declined to near 7M or below, then that would be the first strong confirmation that the major short position might be closing out and cashing out.
If the short interest hasn't declined, well then I think ADXS is going to be forced to sell the entire company. Soon.
So tomorrow we will have a better idea if ADXS is going to go the CALA route or the Ariad one.
What do you mean you see no evidence of it?
Here is what we know for fact. 43M shares traded from end of June to end of September. Over 2M shorts were covered in that 3 month timeframe and we lost a net of about 1.3M tutes.
We still need to wait for the short reporting for 10/1 thru 10/15, and of course we won't know what happened during this quarter until January.
Yes, the PPS sucks. The real reality is that both you and I were stupid hogs for not selling more at $25-$20 when we both bought in back in 2013 and 2014. We were sitting on a 10 to 20 bagger and we still held for more. Because you and I were both greedy.
So yeah, we can complain about the PPS now, but let's at least take some personal responsibility for not taking more profits back in 2015.
Well, we both agree completely that ADXS is absurdly undervalued here. In fact, I think I might consider it even slightly more undervalued than you do. I believe at $3.79 the science platform is basically being valued at $0. The only thing being valued in the PPS is cash and .10 cents on the dollar for assets and future contracted milestones and royalties.
I would normally consider this a screaming buy, but until I see real evidence the death grip from the shorts has been released I am still wary.
Traderx,
Personally I think the short interest report on 10/24 will be the most interesting short report of 2017.
I am also even wondering if Broadfin and Sectoral, who got shares in an offering at $7.50 weren't short since Sep 2015 and if part of their liquidation was not partly explained by them covering their own shorts. During the same Qtr they sold out, short interest went from over 10M to just over 8M.
Can't say for sure, but after what we've seen since June, I have started to go back and review everything.
I have mentioned this before, but just to keep it real, most of those analyst price targets between $18-$22 are by firms that ADXS has used to underwrite their deals and offerings. So one has to consider the possibilities that there might be some Quid Pro Quo concerns there.
Outside of that, I agree that an analyst price target is not the same as total enterprise value if sold. In fact, I have seen companies sold for much higher multiples over analyst price targets, but also lower than analyst price targets.
So it can cut both ways.
Mpreorder, yes, I do agree that Lombardo will likely use and have access to as many internal resources, along with outside consultants, as needed to properly value the monetary component of any deal or sale.
I don't know the reason for the seeming treading water approach with Lombardo. I can't recall many, if any, companies in my 20+ years investing in any space that canned their CEO, named an interim guy, and then telegraphed that they aren't actively looking to replace the interim guy, or remove his interim label.
It seems to me you only do that if you know the company won't outlive the interim guy, or if you (the BOD) are considering making the interim guy permanent if he delivers on some conditions you gave him when he took over as interim. There may be other reasons I am missing, but those seem like the 2 most logical outcomes based on the timeline and current circumstances.
What I am curious about most is how the shorts react to Lombardo. If the message has went out to the short interest that Lombardo is going to deliver a big deal or deals, we should see short interest drop below 7M, on it's way to below 5M.
However, if shorts are just hedging their bets here, we won't see a big drop on 10/24, and we will know that the shorts could be taking the same approach as they did before Investor Day in June, where they went from 10M to 8M, just in case DOC announced something.
I guess the real question is who were those other 8M that obviously didn't feel any urgency to close out last June? Even at $8.50? I am thinking it was possibly Adage and crew who knew nothing was coming then.
So we may have gotten some hazy confirmation that Adage and crew represent approximately 6M to 7M of the 10M shorts, with the rest being retail shorts along with some smaller boutique hedge funds that are independent operators and aren't getting the memos from the big boy short cabal.
Short interest in ADXS won't ever go to 0. We just need to see it go (initially) under 7M, and that will give us our first real confirmation that the shorts believe Lombardo is going to deliver something.
I don't usually make Buy recommendations, as I haven't bought a single share since it was $8.75, but if I ever see short interest drop below 5M, I'll know for sure that the "time to cover message" has went out and it might be time to pick up some more shares.
Mpreorder, this might be one of the few areas I might disagree with you.
I see it as the reverse.
Does a BOD really let an "interim" guy who barely knows the science or the company negotiate and sign key deals that will determine the fate of the future of the company? What high quality CEO is going to want to come into a situation where the direction of the company was almost entirely mapped out by the "interim" guy who preceded him? This isn't like taking over for Bill Gates at Microsoft or Steve Jobs at Apple or Elon Musk at Tesla.
It would be taking over from Tony Lombardo, the "interim" guy who basically negotiated all the major ground rules for the entire company that you (the new CEO) would be obligated to conform to.
I just can't see it.
Lombardo to me seems like a sell the entire company signal. If the plan was to keep ADXS standalone, you get the new high end CEO immediately, one with a deep and extensive background, and you let that guy map out the future. Not the temp.
JMO. You could be right and I could be wrong. We'll see.
Also absolutely agreed. While at least we have a restored partial uptick rule, it is quite lame in offering protection to micro cap Biotech stocks like ADXS.
In fact, the reason we can all know for a virtual certainty that the price collapse since June has largely been a short selling attack...and not institutions dumping en masse...is the careful protection of the uptick rule. They have been very careful to keep it from getting invoked. The point is to drag out and elongate the selling to wear down retail and force margin calls on almost every single share of ADXS out there that was on margin.
Here is a great brief synopsis of the uptick rule from SEC.GOV...
https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-09/s70809-1388.pdf
Absolutely. In fact, this isn't just true on Wall St. Many graduates in many industries are introduced to the "real rules of engagement" via this venue.
I am of two opinions on ADXS…
First, yes it is obvious (to me anyway) that since 9/11, really starting in June actually after the Investor Day, that the hedge funds short ADXS have been working with their MM’s in a brutal takedown. They have generated 10’s of Millions of share volume via HFT to crater the stock. For what purpose? It appears from the short interest report on 10/10 that they want to cover…quickly. But we will get more information on this Tuesday after the close (10/24) and will have to wait to see if that confirms the suspicions.
But I have read some comments that this takedown was done even though no bad news has been released from the company. I can agree with that partially. I have seen no material news, nothing negative, in relation to the science that would seem to warrant anything less than a PPS of $15 today, right now.
However, have we really seen no bad news at all?
I do think we have seen some serious stumbling in relation to the management and BOD of this company. Nothing that warrants a PPS of under $4, but enough problems for the shorts to use as easy excuses for their takedown.
My problems with DOC aren’t really compensation related, but my first questions about him go back to why did DOC always seem to have a problem finding and keeping a CMO? Something that ADXS is STILL looking for again? I will even say the firing of David Mauro never really sat right with me, but I didn’t make a big deal of it at the time. But moving on from the fact that DOC seemed to not be able to either pick the right candidate, or that DOC was possibly impossible to work with for a CMO, let’s get to the money and PPS management.
DOC had $160M in cash last October 2016. $160M. Many of us stated over those successive months that it seemed like the ideal time to strike a big partnership deal…from a position of relative financial strength. Yet DOC did nothing. Oddly for some reason DOC seemed either disconnected or paralyzed by the fact that the short entities were month after month driving down the PPS and destroying his #1 currency to implement his grand vision for ADXS. Yet, he never addressed it, never seemed to respond, or never seemed to alter his strategy.
In fact, I think DOC was almost too open and transparent with his reviews of the company’s progress and basically telegraphed to the shorts the long delays between clinical milestones. Basically DOC was very good in all of his updates about giving the short entities an all’s clear for the next 6 months signal, so short away with no fear of getting caught. We saw the PPS collapse after every Investor Day since DOC started them.
Then DOC gets fired, for a reason none of us are actually privy to. The BOD never addressed it. Tony Lombardo was made interim CEO, and we heard nothing from Lombardo for over 2 months. Then the BOD announces that while Lombardo is the “interim” CEO, they basically don’t have any plans to replace him anytime soon.
Then months after being in the CEO / Interim CEO position, Lombardo presented at Cantor. And he sounded like a guy who got that slide deck 60 minutes before the conference and was asked to fill on for the original presenter. It was a pretty bland and lifeless presentation in my view by a guy who did not seem very familiar with the immunotherapy sector nor with his own company. He just read bullet points from each page. No, Lombardo does not strike me as the guy who would lead ADXS into the next decade as a cutting edge immunotherapy company.
So, yeah, I have pretty much lost a lot of confidence in this BOD and management group. But what bothers me most is that after 10+ years of 3-4 different CEO’s, and years and years of experience with toxic financing and sleazy hedge fund tactics, why do they seem so oblivious to what is happening and what is being done with their PPS? Are they really this naïve after so many years at this? Or are they possibly complicit, even in a benign sense, in that they know exactly what is happening and they are giving enough time to a certain entity they view as a past and future benefactor to get covered?
I don’t know the real answers to my questions. I just hope Lombardo knows how to negotiate good deals and get a good price. Because he sure looks and sounds like a guy who is only there to sell the company.
It’s ashame really, because under a quality BOD or CEO, I think the science at ADXS is so real and so strong it could be a huge winner for both investors and patients. But unfortunately, probably not under this gang.
JMO.
At this point I am almost numb to the selling. I don’t know how low they will take this but I won’t accept the premise that the value of the entire science platform is basically $0…which is what the current PPS suggests.
I can’t say exactly who is behind this, or what their endgame is. I also don't know whether the ADXS BOD and Management are merely clueless, possibly complicit, or just getting screwed along with the rest of us.
We’ll have more useful information after the close on Tuesday.
Absolutely. Watching the huge blocks move back and forth, and the Buy and Sell volume matching up very closely at the end of each day, I feel like this is a stock version of the shell games played by street hustlers in Times Square.
Same ball is getting moved around at dizzying speeds to try and make you lose track of where it is.
I can't figure it out exactly, but there is MAJOR re-shuffling taking place behind the scenes. Whether that turns out to be a good thing for us or more bad, I can't exactly say.
I believe $4 is literally about cash and asset value for the entire enterprise, (cash on hand, fixed assets, and .10 cents on the dollar for future contract payments). At $4 the science of the entire platform is valued at basically $0.
So to me this feels like a logical bottom for the big fish to reshuffle their decks. This feels like where ADXS was in November 2014.
At least I hope I am right on that. I have been wrong before.
Gbrown, same here. I always enjoy reading your thoughts as well.
I am not sure what is magical about $4 other than the fact it basically cash value of the company considering real cash on hand and if you assume .10 cents on the dollar for fixed assets and future payment obligations in contracts signed.
So $4 appears to be near a rock bottom cash value for the entire enterprise, whether for a Buy or Cover. In essence at $4, the science is valued at almost $0.
As to approval of AT-014, personally I would be very surprised if this very professional and coordinated attack on the PPS is about that. I view that approval as largely symbolic, with more future implications vs. present implications.
If there is any inside knowledge at all that triggered this, I would think it would be more likely it has something do with a major partnership agreement that involved a respectable amount of cash?
The silence from the company, and Lombardo's position in all this is both questionable and a bit odd to me. It doesn't seem logical the company would keep him as interim, with no plans to replace him now, and then hire a new CEO later after Lombardo has made some of the most critical decisions and deals in the companies history. If you really had plans to hire a new CEO, one would think that the new guy would be given the reins to make any deals...not Lombardo in an interim capacity.
So to me, the only justification for this level of silence from ADXS...while their PPS has been brutally and relentlessly attacked and crushed...is an outright sale of the company. If they have no plans of selling at this time, then I don't see a justification for the silence beyond basic amateur hour incompetence or potential complicity is a major short cover campaign.
But that is just my imperfect opinion now. It could change based on future information as we get it. Unfortunately as retail investors we will always be the last to know anything important.
Whatever is happening here since 9/11 has almost nothing to do with retail. Today is another good example. Huge blocks are showing as bought and sold and being passed back and forth.
I am very curious to see the new short interest report next Tuesday.
This week and last week I have been watching the Bid/Ask and volume pretty closely. They are pegging this thing and pretty much won't let out of the range of $3.95 to $4.20. We also know there has been significant volume.
They are either closing out shorts and preparing to launch this, or they are preparing for another leg down. I am assuming the former based on the short report on 10/10. However, won't have more confirmation until report on 10/24. I am also assuming the former because it seems all the easy short profits have been made and they just need time to convert those massive paper gains into cash. It's much easier and quicker to build a 10M short position than close one out. Especially in a micro cap like this is.
Catt, with all due respect you are wrong on this. If you look up the guidelines provided for the process you will see instructions encouraging companies specifically to engage in "scientific advice and protocol assistance" BEFORE submitting their official application.
They specifically state this will help speed up approval of the official submission and prevent major objections after official submission.