NAMO at 42.

NAMO back up to 38.

NAMO at 31 down from yesterday's close at 41.93. Either market has to come down or NAMO has to go up soon.

NDX closed above 50 day EMA.

Gizmo,

<<<<< So put the rally hats on. Now 200% short NDX. >>>>

Didn't quite understood you. You are saying "Put the rally hats on" and then you are "200% short NDX". They don't seem to go together.

Staying 200% long NDX. YTD now -7.1% (Compare to NDX YTD -5.2).

6% + days of SEMIs since 94

(close, %, Date)
491.11 6.28% 28-Oct-03
395.57 7.21% 07-Jul-03
365.34 6.10% 27-May-03
318.10 6.33% 02-Apr-03
310.39 7.98% 13-Mar-03
308.56 6.68% 02-Jan-03
381.69 6.69% 27-Nov-02
365.30 8.05% 21-Nov-02
338.08 8.25% 20-Nov-02
319.13 7.94% 14-Nov-02
313.04 6.06% 01-Nov-02
301.29 6.57% 30-Oct-02
285.86 7.84% 23-Oct-02
266.61 8.66% 17-Oct-02
269.10 9.44% 15-Oct-02
246.22 8.35% 11-Oct-02
227.24 6.16% 10-Oct-02
256.45 7.04% 25-Sep-02
348.48 6.42% 16-Aug-02
322.18 7.80% 14-Aug-02
301.54 6.21% 06-Aug-02
336.83 6.93% 29-Jul-02
372.47 6.86% 11-Jul-02
396.18 9.08% 05-Jul-02
541.10 6.27% 14-May-02
522.35 11.11% 08-May-02
567.27 11.05% 01-Mar-02
590.62 8.28% 03-Jan-02
585.80 7.66% 05-Dec-01
544.11 6.48% 04-Dec-01
478.09 6.71% 01-Nov-01
474.60 10.74% 11-Oct-01
428.59 6.74% 10-Oct-01
388.81 9.64% 03-Oct-01
594.91 6.16% 24-Aug-01
588.12 6.29% 26-Jul-01
605.93 8.60% 12-Jul-01
697.03 7.68% 07-Jun-01
647.90 6.74% 05-Jun-01
706.15 7.41% 21-May-01
642.59 6.47% 16-May-01
685.16 6.90% 19-Apr-01
640.94 11.70% 18-Apr-01
564.29 8.49% 11-Apr-01
520.12 9.45% 10-Apr-01
522.69 12.77% 05-Apr-01
626.39 12.25% 22-Mar-01
577.76 6.74% 19-Mar-01
612.51 6.27% 13-Mar-01
678.07 7.82% 14-Feb-01
726.09 7.19% 18-Jan-01
677.40 6.28% 17-Jan-01
670.23 17.51% 03-Jan-01
587.14 9.66% 22-Dec-00
682.77 6.96% 11-Dec-00
638.34 12.09% 08-Dec-00
607.41 10.14% 05-Dec-00
674.68 8.79% 24-Nov-00
705.97 6.15% 26-Oct-00
758.74 17.22% 19-Oct-00
758.32 10.04% 13-Oct-00
863.06 6.16% 04-Oct-00
1,028.47 8.12% 19-Sep-00
1,027.19 7.71% 14-Aug-00
1,234.87 6.61% 19-Jun-00
1,157.75 8.48% 02-Jun-00
1,067.28 6.90% 01-Jun-00
1,010.30 11.06% 30-May-00
965.78 6.25% 11-May-00
1,135.12 7.00% 27-Apr-00
1,082.45 8.94% 25-Apr-00
1,009.88 13.19% 17-Apr-00
1,134.76 6.16% 05-Apr-00
1,304.59 9.22% 22-Mar-00
1,211.34 6.64% 03-Mar-00
1,170.46 9.75% 29-Feb-00
809.87 8.13% 14-Jan-00
741.69 7.37% 10-Jan-00
555.83 6.34% 29-Oct-99
406.70 6.70% 21-Apr-99
377.58 6.22% 05-Mar-99
401.86 6.53% 11-Feb-99
376.51 6.23% 05-Jan-99
214.46 6.80% 12-Oct-98
213.57 7.41% 08-Sep-98
273.23 7.09% 15-Jul-98
267.00 6.57% 13-Jan-98
313.59 10.16% 28-Oct-97
286.19 6.75% 12-Feb-97
191.70 6.09% 24-Sep-96
156.74 6.19% 26-Jul-96
191.22 6.56% 24-Jan-96
205.32 6.13% 19-Dec-95
230.19 7.54% 28-Nov-95
261.35 7.54% 17-Oct-95
276.80 6.24% 12-Jul-95

Steve, Congratulations on catching part of SEMI wave.

Well I know how to infer.

Just found new chart. This give some indication of long term trend (see the EMA of $CPC relative to NDX).

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[r,a]dalayyay[df][iuj[$CPC]]&pref=G

Does anyone know how to extend this to 10 years ?

See how charts range is getting smaller in last few days. I do not know what to infer out of this.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$NDX,uu[s,a]faclyyay[d][pc9!c50...

Thank you.

IMHO, Semis are very oversold, and are due for a bounce or change of direction. Semis also have positive divergence in MACD, so may turn up today. I was trying to find a SEMI fund of RYDEX, but didn't see any. Anybody know, which fund is the closest to SEMIs in Rydex funds ?

I was busy yesterday and was away from net, but had chance to peek at market 10 min before close and updated tarm. tarm was at long so I stayed long.

I will keep an aye on SEMIs tomorrow and in next few day. If SEMIs bounce, NDX can be very strong if S&P500 and Mid caps stay green.

Will stay long at close.

Is this the reason http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=a2kSSEvtEfQU&refer=latin_america of this drop ?

Anybody know of any other news ?

Steve, 49% Refer (http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3977587).

Postman,

Thank you very much. Data after Sep 2002 makes more sense. Otherewise, the analysis had sent my head spinning.

Since Sep 18, 2002
-----------------

53% days futes at open were above prev days NDX close
If futes at open are +ve then NDX closed above prev close 64% of times.
If futes at open are +ve then NDX closed above futes 47% of times.
If futes at open are +ve then NDX closed above open 49% of times.


My source of futes at open = http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^QMI

For lower futes, results are very similar.

Conclusion: Futes at open cannot be used as profitable trade for that day since only 49% of days the NDX close above open.

Marc,

Same 77%. And that is why I am doubting this ^QMI values. Can any here verify that QMI does give correct value of futes at open. If not then any other source ?

Marc,

Whopping 77%.

Since May 4, 2001
-----------------

Futes up at open (with respect to prev day NDX close) = 431 days
NDX up at close (with respect to prev day NDX close) if Futes up at NDX open = 332

= 77%

My source of futes at open = http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^QMI

Added
-----
Only on 131 days (out of 431) days, NDX closed above futes (dismal 30%).

This opens up a very interesting study. I will definitely study more and post results.

Can please somebody verify, how reliabe is Yahoo's QMI index ?

Another good post on Chichi's board. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3973889

An interesting view of INTC http://www.safehaven.com/article-1930.htm

Gizmo, just to add to your ratio analysis, there is a post on chichi's board, I thought will interest you. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3962980

Market gurus aren't calling it a top yet. Infact they just went long. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3966049

Is there any place where I get Put/Call ratio (free site) (realtime or delayed) apart from http://www.cboe.com/MktData/default.asp.

Thanks
qqqbee

Steve thank you very much. That is very very impressive.

NDX is exactly at same point where it was a year ago. On 4th sep 2003 it was at 1,373.26 and today it closed at 1,371.82.

Well now I know, how good I have to be with the crystal ball, to get such results. Will work towards it.

Thanks
qqqbee

Congratulation on that 2.5%. What's your YTD ? My goal for Sep is to get into green YTD.

NAMO still at 40.

Same here. From +13% to -20% and now at -10% today. Steve can I ask yours ? If you do not want to disclose then just ignore this post.

Decision time: Staying long 200%. tarm still at long. But today's hit improved tarm's results as I was able to introduce overbought/oversold signal flips and stops. So more frequent signal changes in future.

News from tarm drawing board. I was able to design a parameter which would have caught overbought condition. If results are used to sit outside market based on this parameter, then results improved by whopping 2x since 1986. Well I guess this down movement gave me something at the cost of 3%.

Since I am at 200% long, I will not be able to change today's loss, but I will be more confident in staying long over the weekend. tarm still at long so I believe it will stay there at EOD.

Steve, thanks for the links and your inputs. FTSE is still climbing up. I think, the shorts will take profit early morning or before the close. I doubt many will stay short into the weekend. Piper Jaffray already said that weakness due to INTC is buying opp for CSCO http://finance.yahoo.com/mp .

What are the numbers, FTSE jumped about 8 pts (.2%) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^FTSE&t=1d

Congratulations on your YTD +8%.

I guess this is drawback of mechanical models, things like INTC will hit it bad. Models can not predict short term events. Anyway I will stick with tarm which is at "long" today.

I can see overbought in 90days charts http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$NDX,uu[w,a]faclyyay[p][pc9!c50...

But I do not see overbought in 1 year charts.

I think there is not much downside left in SEMIs and tomorrow will be a good opportunity to cover shorts and go long (whoever trades long term). I will believe, DaBoyz will do exactly that and high volume will give them that chance. Average guys will give up and sell at low (bought at highs).

Marc, congratulations on the recovery and tomorrow's cash position.

Intel guided down big time. http://www.intel.com/intel/finance/index.htm?iid=HPAGE+low_intellinks_investorrelationsouter&

Conrats Steve and Frank.

Well I have to wait some more for my YTD green. Back to drawing borad in search of a good overbought indicator.

I am 200% long, and also very nervous, my reading of charts is shouting "overbought" but my excel program says "long". Well good luck to all of us.