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Gleno, I think the time of when the pattern occurs is suppose to be @ 14:15 (FOMC announcenment) - 14:30ish give or take a few mins so that the end of the reversal of the reversal is complete. From then on out you wait near the close of day/bell to figure out where to position yourself for tomorrow.
If you look at the 1min chart. Notice the blue bar @ 14:15, and notice it went UP, Down til about 14:30 and @ ~14:37 completed the UP pattern. Now we wait and see for the closing day pattern which looks to be up.
What do you think? 30min 100dma @ 40.40 LOD for QID (EDIT just broke 40.40)? Can you give some QID down targets? TIA.
Gleno and if the FOMC pattern repeats we may see more down til ~15:30ish where buying picks up into the close. That is where I am looking to get back in short, since I can't just live on a 6 pack of beast. I'll need some McD's cheeseburgers w/ that. LOL... I'll just have to see where the 5min QIDs are @ that point.
Did anyone straddle (edit - QQQQs) at 47.60 during the slimjim? I'm out of my QID actually, got out @ 40.99. For a whopping .17 gain I think I can buy a 6 pack of beast now. LOL...
I am looking for a spike back up (reversal of the reversal to get back in short.) That was a pretty good run if you were quick enough on the QID - 40.40 LOD to recent swing of 41.13!
I think the down should be coming soon. If you look at the old Scam post the time frame after the announcement is ~14:15-14:30. So you should see the pattern. I am just saying now that we see the up at 14:15 we will get a down soon and then back up. Will probably close up too. Then tomorrow we should see some sell-off if the pattern works out correctly.
(Edit I am speculating we get back down to around the Slimjim on this down move and then back up for the rest of today.)
Pattern is Up down up. So tomorrow's close will be down.
I think you're right. Wow is it getting volatile. I decided to change my stop a bit further down otherwise I would've been taken out. If not down today after FOMC, then we will go down tomorrow.
Yeah if I were smart Gleno I should wait til tomorrow instead of playing russian roulette.
BTW to everyone on the bored- just as a reference here are some old Scam FOMC links that I bookmarked.
The Fed-Day Pattern @ 14:15 Announcement:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=7032318
The Fed-Day After:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=6748035
Yup... That's Scam's slimjim rule. Anyhow, I put a super tight stop on my QID a penny below the lows for today.
FOMC Rules as I remember is at 14:15 there will be a spike and then reversal of the spike and then reversal of the reversal. Then if I remember correctly, tomorrow, the market will go in the opposite direction of the close today.
So:
1) If we get an UP-Down-UP spike at 14:15-14:30 and continue to close on up, tomorrow is a reversal down.
2) But if we get a DOWN-Up-DOWN spike @ 14:15-14:30 and continue down, tomorrow will be an up day.
Personally I am hoping for 2) since I am short already. But also because that will setup the long position for ToM, 401K, and 4th of July.
Gleno, will do. Thanks. I think this may be for break even or for pennies on this QID trade. I agree with you that it looks good for more upside potential and with window dressing/ToM, 4th of July, etc.
Got a buy sig on the QID @ 40.80. Bought @40.82. I think we drift slightly lower til 14:15 FOMC announcement. Then who knows. (Got my finger on the trigger too.)
Probably cause of this... Not that the FOMC is going raise rates and prop the $.
Oil prices drop on report of higher oil stockpiles
Wednesday June 25, 10:55 am ET
By John Wilen, AP Business Writer
Oil prices fall sharply after Energy Department says oil, fuel supplies higher than expected
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices are sharply lower after the government said the nation's fuel and oil supplies were larger than expected last week.
Light, sweet crude for August delivery is down $4.10 at $132.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The Energy Department said crude oil inventories rose last week. Analysts had expected supplies to fall.
"Crude inventories for the week ended June 21 unexpectedly rose 803,000 barrels, compared to the expected decline of 1.1 million. "
Gasoline supplies fell, while analysts expected them to rise. And demand for gas fell 2.1 percent.
The weekly inventory report tends to trigger volatile trading in oil futures, especially since prices have risen to record levels near $140.
(This version CORRECTS APNewsNow. SUBS 4th graf to correct that gas supplies fell, compared to forecasts of a gain. )
Gleno, got your PM. I can't PM back. Thanks, I will be watching.
Be TRINQ is still relatively low at .68. What are your thoughts? CCI 144 looks like it wants to bounce off -100.
2xer, 5min CCI 144 above 0. That's cool. Hope it holds for you. I'm looking at the 15 min CCI 48 too. (Edit - 15min CCI48 just turned positive +6.) That is close to zero line. I'm keeping an eye on this system, and just looking at the last few days/weeks.
2xer. Thanks. I just went back and read all the post on NERS by gloe and nocona. Very interesting. I'll have to keep an eye on it. CCI is about break 0 on both the 15min CCI-48 and 5min CCI-144. The RSI 5 was mentioned on a couple posts but not on many. Either way I've added that on as well as an indicator to watch.
2xer, thanks. What are Nocona's rules on the 5min for exiting positions? I may have to take a closer look @ this system. TIA.
2xer, nice! Looks like we may be getting the V reversal/bounce on the 60min.
Gleno, yeah... I'm a little P.O.ed too. I sold my QIDs on Friday. At least you held til yesterday. Well may be we will get a 1-2 day bounce so that we can get back in short. Trendline is still down on Weekly, Daily, and 60mins, and everything thing else it appears. If it goes down any further I don't think I'll be able to see it on my screens. LOL....
I think 77.56 is the next area of support. (Edit - if we break that we should fill the gap @ 76.60.) I am going to wait and see after the FOMC announces tomorrow @ 14:15.
Foot, I am thinking the same thoughts too. A bounce off support. But not a very strong bounce.
This will give us another chance to go short. I am still not sure though how far this ST bounce will go, but I don't think it will exceed ~1970ish.
Look @ that sell volume on Friday.
Geez, that is terrible. Was that yesterday? I was down in Lakewood helping my sister fix her house. I bet that hybrid helped a lot in saving gas in that stop and go traffic. When I get another car (not sure when) that will be my next car for sure.
BTW - maps.google.com has a good traffic forecast. I always check it before I go on I-5 although I do not know if it would've helped if that accident happened during the time that you came up from portland. If I-5 is bad I take 99 and merge back onto I-5 past northgate. (Although some sections of 99 has lights they are pretty well timed and still better than going 5mph).
http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=47.63452,-122.342329&spn=0.337309,0.387268&z=11&layer=t
Be, that's a nice QQQQ entry, I need to watch your entries. BTW- did you close out or are you holding on for weekend. This is my last post for the day. Have a good weekend everyone.
I still think they are going to manufacture a ST tradable bounce. TRIN/TRINQ is on tradable bounces right now, NAMO around -40. I guess we will find out around 15:30-15:40 if people start to unwind/sell their short positions. But long term I agree doesn't look good.
(EDIT, 10points away to where we started on the last bounce)
Hold Cr*p! So I was wrong on that call. The boys are pushing the $NDX down further. I guess there wasn't enough blood out of the stone yet. (Edit QQQQ - 47.28 right now, may hit Fox's 47.26 target.)
Agree, think we double bottomed for now. Prices should go back up, reversion of the mean, shorts probably will start closing out profits as well.
Fox, it looks like the boys are trying for your target again at 47.26. I guess we'll find out in a few minutes if they take the QQQQs down or if this is the good ol' double bottom for the day.
Be, my finger was too itchy. Sold out QID at 41.14 a few minutes ago. I am flat, and now looking to see if they bounce the QQQQs back to the mean later today which is ~47.87.
Be, I have my finger on the trigger, we're still in that slimjim. I thought that spike up on the $NDX ~13:05 was going to have some legs, but it fizzled. I'm just sitting and waiting for the paint to dry. (edit, QID just hit 41.04 HOD hope this isn't the double top.)
Ruh Oh... They may be trying for a bounce instead. I'm keeping my itchy trigger fingers ready to sell QIDs.
I guess we will find out in about an hour or so when the boys come back. Meanwhile, as this slimjim keeps going, another favorite scam saying is: "The longer the stronger". So the move should be violent. We've been slimjimming since ~10AM on the 5min charts.
Gleno, this is all speculation, but I think we go lower, then a snap back rally into the close. According to Scamman, Slimjims typically resolve towards the direction of the trend. QID's trend is up so I am thinking a break towards new highs, and a lower low for the NDX, then snap back rally/reversion to the mean or 1/2 way point.
Gleno, what is the level on the handy dandy MACD? -.015 or -.020 before a reversal?
Gleno are you looking to get into some UYG (2x long finacials)? I was thinking about it yesterday but will wait til I see a cross up on the MAs. (Edit, I don't how I feel about holding finacials more than just a 2-4 day tradeable bounce.)
Gleno, look at this from Hawaii. Geez... I hope this doesn't happen to the mainland.
"Honolulu (CNN) -- Imagine going to your local grocery store and paying over $8 for a jar of Jif peanut butter. How about $5.50 for a loaf of white bread, $6.50 for a gallon of milk or $7.19 for a half-gallon of orange juice?
These are just some of the prices we found in a recent survey of Hawaii's supermarkets. Families there are certainly paying the price for living in paradise. "
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/19/news/economy/Lawrence_Hawaii_inflation/index.htm?section=money_latest
Gleno, decided to sell 1/2 QID at 40.54, the entry I bought @ 39.43 yesterday afternoon. Still holding the bad entry @ 40.25 from yesterday morning, may hold that one and see what happens next couple days.
Foot, I know you don't read posts unless directed to you so I was wondering what you thought of this diamond pattern. I've been looking the charts over for the past hour and the only pattern that jumps out at me is a diamond in the sky for the $NDX. We just have to get below 1963, 200dma. On the daily time frame, we are still on a hold short but barely. The downtrend line is going to be violated if we go up any higher!
"2xer, I've been looking things over for the past hour. You could be right. Also, it's the Time of Month, window dressing, 401K stuff, holiday with the uninformed. I'm thinking top tomorrow, with a neg. close, and then like you said down through FOMC and possibly back up and then down big? Is this a bearish diamond pattern forming? If I call enough patterns may be one will hit. LOL..."
BTW - I still think that 1850 gap looks might inviting.
2xer, I've been looking things over for the past hour. You could be right. Also, it's the Time of Month, window dressing, 401K stuff, holiday with the uninformed. I'm thinking top tomorrow, with a neg. close, and then like you said down through FOMC and possibly back up and then down big? Is this a bearish diamond pattern forming? If I call enough patterns may be one will hit. LOL...
BTW - I still think that 1850 gap looks might inviting.
$NDX 60m Inverse H+S now? I don't like the looks of this one bit. What if we have an Inverse H+S in the making now, if we break the green line, we could travel all the way back up to ~2067 making new highs which would be an el crapo.
Ouch... If we penetrate 1990, the $NDX Downtrend line on the daily could be invalid. The Million $ question is: "Is this a fake me out rally? or is this the real deal?"
2xer, yeah it looks possible that they may take it up to 1990 and may be even 2000 by Friday. I am trying to figure out what to do before EOD.