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Indeed, very very good moves made today. Although we didn't close at .048, if one looks at the trade history for today it's clear .047-.048 had the most number of trades occur in the 4's range. I was expecting that to begin with, and it would've been an exceptionally strong sign to close there or above it.
Just to be clear, this was still exceptionally strong movement, but closing at or above .048 would've been explosively strong. I'm actually glad it acted as resistance because as most people who've been playing with pennies know, when charts make explosively strong upward moves, the retracements are equally explosive [RE*C, for example].
Something that's been very interesting to me is that in my past video I mentioned an important time cycle point on Monday, and said if I don't see a move start Monday-Wednesday I will be very surprised. Now I know that cycle was indeed correct, but it was part of a bearish one. Today the next time cycle of SKTO begins.
I know many finds this sort of thing a little 'out there' but it's no more out there than Fibonacci retracements or confluence zones. It's an interesting concept, but there is such a thing as TIME confluence zones as well. The meat of it falls on Monday, April 15. If there's going to be a day to hit .08 or break above .10, early next week will be it. Looking forward to the coming days... :)
Good to see some action around here. Looking for a .048 close here today. If that's the case, I stand by my target of .08 for near term [tomorrow, maybe?], then .112.
SKTO taught me some good lessons [at a pretty decent cost], but I think it will be well worth it.
So thin. We continue to test out the confluence zones I posted earlier here, but it looks like with more and more conviction each time. Just need a little volume to get this thing running.
Two levels are shown representing important resistance zones based on key overlapping Fibonacci retracements. I made it last night before market open today. Technicals aren't just math. It looked as though there weren't any resistance levels looking at the overall chart, but clearly there are, and these two are the main one's that are the immediate barriers. Once these are passed up it should be a free flow upward.
All movement on a chart is based on human behavior, therefore, as far as I can tell, technical analysis on any market chart and any time frame can offer helpful information in making trading decisions or gauging the health of a stock.
What a beautiful break out. Been waiting on this for a month or two now :)
No, I could not have been more wrong. What exactly are people expecting from charts? They're guidelines, you have to be dynamic and know how to use them. When something does not go as expected that often has MUCH useful information to be gleaned from it.
I've been trading for only 6 months, and I more than happily admit I am no expert at t/a. You'd be a fool to say charts don't work. In this situation it would be more accurate to say "chart boy clearly didn't read the situation right." See the difference?
Haha, I'm no magician my friend :) [rest of this post isn't just directed at you, btw]
I've been wrong about the timing of upward moves, but there's much that is still valid, and important [for me, atleast] not to overlook. Downward moves were expected, and the thrust out of the triangle image showed an image with a bottom of .0415 [where we closed today]. Yesterday even though we didn't hit .041 I still maintained we will likely head down there first before we would move on up.
I don't like all the sideways chop up and down. Just don't have the momentum or volume coming in for upward moves. Need the big boys for that. On a brighter note the downward moves are still very low volume which means shares are tightly held. Going to transition to currency trading or trading indexes while playing with pennies on the side cause lack of liquidity gets seriously boring lol.
Imo it's more important to know where I should be reducing/closing out positions instead of keeping eyes on where we want to go.
Here's the 3-26-13 Fib grid with updated price action... this is the grid I always have on my screen throughout the day to see the larger picture. Indicators become more important to me when we're closer to fib zones.
Gonna turn off the charts for the day and see what Monday should bring during the weekend.
Grid:
Image of that triangle from before:
Will post an update for t/a later since I know some of you are probably curious to know. Clearly the day didn't go as expected, but the purpose of t/a is not to have a crystal ball as much as it is to have an objective sense of how to manage risk. Crystal ball is sometimes an added bonus, and the times it's not it is a reminder that one must not succumb to greed.
Having said that, whenever I do update my t/a I'll have to get into what went wrong with previous analysis [or what developed that countered previous analysis]. That's what I am working on currently.
Have a nice weekend, all.
Once we break above 61.8% in that image I think we'll see some strong, big bars. Looks like she's ready to move north :)
Bank on it my friend. The daily RSI chart is perfect, literally. It's the first support bounce off the 70 level. That is a sweet spot in rallies, where the strongest upward moves occur [check out the daily CTIX chart with a 14 period RSI as an example]. Same goes for the MWIP rally that occurred at price levels around where SKTO is at.
Video again... Tomorrow is going to be wicked. I just don't see how it will be a meh day again. First half is a review of what we were looking for yesterday and what happen today - second half compares volume with plays like MWIP, MJNA, etc. Found some pretty interesting stuff. If you got experience or an opinion about volume advance decline indicator would be nice to hear
Thanks Ocean... and yep seems that way! Same goes to you.
Haha, my eyes are startin to skim over that without even realizing it lately
Thanks bud... almost spot on :) Lookin fwd to tomorrow
Haha. I was def a little lost when talkin about it in the video.. was pretty off as far as labeling it. Triangles are complex and volatile, it's best [safer] to just usually leave them alone and not try to make any decisions off of them.
You're welcome, I'm glad you learned something from it
Thanks! I lol'd pretty good when I read your reply
Wow pretty surprised to hear that. Definitely got some eyes on this thing. Today was such a drag! Kept hoping for a drop to see some action lol. Woke up a little at the end of the day. Hopefully we are satisfied tomorrow
Thank you, will do :)
masahirox, definitely yes about volume in chart analysis... it's perhaps the most important part of analysis imo, but in this case I was working under the assumption volume was pretty much normal for the chart at the time. I'll mention volume next time since it becomes critical for gauging health of strong green moves.
Will look into that! The .4147 was a 'rough' estimate, but what I was mainly looking for was a solid break through .0468. When triangles are forming in a congestion of Fibonacci confluence zones [key zones where important fib levels overlap], the thrust tends to blow through the confluence zones [which normally act as strong support and/or resistance].
In this case, the formation I was looking at was solely the last triangle. Depending on the waves within the triangle [and when appropriate, the larger overall pattern for a little extra confirmation], you can find which way the triangle will resolve. The thrust doesn't count as part of the triangle since it's the result of a completed triangle.
That's where I misspoke in the video. I was saying wave E is going to form the downward move, but what I meant to say was once wave E is done [which marks the triangle completing] the thrust out of the triangle will be downward. In the video I labeled the triangle incorrectly. I was saying A started on the bottom, but the image I posted shows A at the top, which is the correct interpretation [confirmed by what we saw today].
To be real specific about this move down [it really shouldn't matter for most people], I still think we're going to very very quickly move down to .041-.043 area once more, and then I expect beautiful greenery :)
About to make a video [will definitely get to the point in this one!] regarding today's action to see if yesterday's analysis is on the right track, so I'll say why we may dip down a little quickly. It doesn't matter right now in this chart because this is such a small triangle / move, but if this same scenario were in a much larger move, the concept would be just as applicable, but much more important.
Thanks for your comment, I like these discussions too
Thanks buddy, and btw, the MM manipulation thing was half serious half light hearted, but you definitely don't count as 'screaming' manipulation in panic... your post regarding MM's is extremely good and informative. I do believe manipulation exists [severe at times], but I think it is blown out of proportion on iHub all too often. It's like a cachet phrase on the hub when price doesn't go the way we'd like lol.
Wait I'm confused. The post you replied to was the one I was just referring to. I said $1.79 will be resistance. That means price will have a difficult time climbing over at first, so that's not particularly a good buying spot.
Actually I replied thereafter saying I don't think the last leg of the triangle is done. Also mentioned RSI is being put up against a strong resistance level. I've had buy orders placed at $1.54 since, just didn't post my bottoms on this board, been too involved in other places. Don't really like posting here all too much, so if people have questions just PM me. I'll probably make a blog entry once CTIX starts showing life, sometime soon I suspect...
I just want starter positions, can always buy more when there's confirmation of a rally.
I kind of misspoke about something in the video regarding the triangle labeling... really shouldn't make videos in a rush next time, lol. So, here's an image of what I believe is the correct interpretation of this triangle. Of course it could be wrong, just like all of my TA... hell I might even be making it up!
The price projection made is rough, but it is using a legitimate method for where thrusts out of a triangle tend to reach. Like I said, it could just be made up, so don't freak out over it or something.
In the video I spoke about wave E being the downward move but that is not right! Really don't know what I was thinking. Wave E is the last part of the triangle, and from there a thrust out of a triangle tends to occur. That's what you see in the previous correction [and all triangles in general]. Triangles are damn tricky though, if you read them the wrong way they will thrust in the opposite direction, lol. Luckily the opposite direction is favorable in our case. Anyway, image below.
Each swing in a triangle is made up of 3 waves, which is what those swings represent.
Thanks man, appreciated. Definitely agree with you... timing is pristine
By the way, these are just penny stocks, you're right. Wave patterns and Fibonacci analysis however, are not algebraic formulas that calculate moving averages or the relationships between highs and lows. They are far, far deeper than that.
What exactly makes pennies not good for technical analysis again? So many people say that on ihub. SKTO actually has decent volume, what else is needed? Technical analysis is not always the sort of thing you can train a monkey to do [click buy button when this line dips below here], yet that's what people expect. People who think that's what t/a is end up having a bad experience, and conclude t/a doesn't work on pennies.
Even if you prove to be correct, you do realize I would be out of the stock or have bought more shares before most have had a chance to read a press release. The chart would take on a different character immediately.
I'm not just directing this towards you, it's for anyone who believes t/a is bunk. I have nothing to prove, but for the sake of discussion, it seems worthwhile. Doesn't mean you need to be interested in t/a, it may not be for you, and that's okay. But your summary of my video is epically incorrect.
All you need to do is provide a counter towards the Fibonacci grid at the end of the video. Have you an explanation for the accuracy of it? It's not the first time or the first stock that sort of grid has been made, and price action has abided by it religiously.
There is one possibility I see for this pattern extending into a further correction, but I don't see it as all that probable. Always ready for any situation.
I know the video was longer than it needed to be... I was in a hurry to leave, and stammered more than usual, but the content still stands.
People have said very similar things to me on other boards. It's bogus. You think news releases aren't reflected in chart patterns, but that is simply wrong. Quantitative easing might be among the few things that is not captured in patterns as clearly, but any technical trader will have the tools to deal with a news release as well.
I am very critical with what I do, and with myself. I can see you're throwing out the possibility of charts mapping out price action without even knowing the techniques. Just say you prefer news releases and, if you're actually serious about making a useful point, back it up a little with past experience or at the very least with SKTO.
Make no mistake there's going to be a move down. That triangle is much larger than the previous one, and the thrust out of it downwards will likely be large, but if the past is any indication of the future, it will recover quickly. It will be a little nerve racking, but hey... that's the name of the game.
Thanks everyone for their comments!
SKTO Video Analysis
Really excited to share this video because I thought there's some real good stuff going on here on the chart. Sorry for the length, I tried talking fast... but I hope those who watch it find it worthwhile!
Glad to have shares at the beginning of the day. Can sit back and watch this thing run.
.043 test, touch down towards .037 perhaps, then we're off to make some highs imo. Volume seems to be picking up, good sign.
Agreed. I try to keep myself from thinking about huge numbers, especially don't want others buying in cause of my opinion then getting burned, but you're totally right.
25% is very conservative.
+1
I look at this chart again and again and the patterns are pristine... it is a perfect chart for someone who's trying to learn Elliot Wave.
Succinct, clean 5 wave moves, fairly swift corrections, and the current correction is a perfect example of an expanded flat pattern about to develop its final and last leg before the rally.
Would be very surprised if this does not run at minimum 20% tomorrow. Dip in the AM then off to the races, IMO.
Thanks Ocean. That grid you see there is a target [resistance] grid. I have a different support grid, and I'm sure you've seen it before... here's an image below. I made this a week ago but just took a screenshot to show updated price action. That single line is [as far as my understanding goes] the confluence area that should be the strongest. It's exactly at 0.43 :)
I think we're probably going to dip down towards there today or early tomo. I gotta keep in mind to do analysis on a bit of longer period charts as well, because the earlier triangle I posted was based on a 5 minute chart. Now though, looking at the developed 20 minute chart or so, looks we're simply making the next leg of the triangle, and it is very clear to see. Will post a 5-10 min video of the triangle later today to show what I mean.
One thing is for sure, unlike previous times, I personally am not going to hold on to all my shares when I start having to adjust continuously. We need to start a rally tomorrow or Wednesday the latest else I'm going to significantly reduce my holdings and see how this plays out [my avg is in the low .04's, so doesn't make sense to hang on]. Mean while been flipping a little here and there to lock little profit. Need my margin account enabled already, clearance period sucks.
Top trend line intact thus far, .054 hit (right on the trend line) but she bounced back down as expected. Maybe around 45 minutes until someone with a lot of spare change gets tired of a slow day.
This chart almost looks ready for blast off. Haven't had a chance to do a lot of chart work, but I know one thing for sure... We're reaching the end of a massive correction who's final wave is likely going to be this triangle.
The close on Thursday had RSI bumping up against a critical resistance level (RSI resistance level). Once it acts as support(even once on daily time frame) that will give me a lot of confidence in strength for upward movement.
Key resistance zones I found are $1.79-$1.80 and $1.90-$1.93. I feel like just a couple months ago I would have had more buy orders already set for the morning, but I've significantly tightened up (at least am trying to) my risk management with trading (or in the case of CTIX, investing) lately. Bought a little more than I should have on Thursday at this stage in this pattern simply because the last leg of the triangle may not be done yet. I'll try to make a video of this tomorrow to explain what I mean for those interested... pretty difficult to describe the waves of this triangle without taking forever and talking at length about downsides [and upsides like always], which no doubt would be seen as bashing
Anyway, glad to know CTIX is going to be presenting at ASCO. End of the week, imo, I suspect ~$1.80 or $1.92 to become the new support. Have a nice night.