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TBT is starting to move a little. And with the little movement, it getting close to extreme overbought. Too soon for me. Though, it could stay up there for 4 days in a row.
But I have a feeling this rally is just short covering, and when it's over, TBT we resume it's decline.
1535 was the target I had for the NASDAQ. It got taken out with force. Now, I have 1589 before the rally ends. That could get taken out today.
Also, I believe Wed. is WWW. We could have a MAJOR decline sometime between Tues. and Thurs. of this week.
A rising tide lifts all boat. When this short covering rally is over, I'm sure CHK will resume it's decline to at least 9, probably lower.
I have 1 as the low. I doubt it gets that low, but somewhere between 9 and 1.
Although, a lot of times I come up with targets and think "no way are they going there", only to see the targets get hit.
So, I'm pretty sure 9 gets hit.
They gapped CHK. That sucks. Did you buy on Friday?
Not yet. And if anybody wants a 2x long crude etf, check out DXO. it's at cheapie, even after todays 12% gain, it trading under $3/shr.
Still watching TBT. Waiting for the daily to "re-set".
BTW, if CHK rises from here, then 12.30 should be a no-brainer and 13.89 very likely.
DTO is a great example of how I try to trade (not currently holding, though :~(
On the daily, it has been extremely overbought for 4 days in a row. That's the most I've seen for any stock I've watched (or index) EXCEPT for TBT that closed Thursday at 5 days in a row extremely oversold. (Overbought or oversold= 4 days max, usually :~) )
Now, it looks like DTO will be down about 12% or more Monday if the futures hold where they are now as I type (43.26/bl).
So, 118-121 likely for DTO on Monday.
CHK is a buy here on the daily, weekly and the monthly charts.
However, it could be down another day before a move up. And the weekly I'd like to see more oversold, but right here is a low risk entry.
Same for the monthly. We are now into the 4th month is a row that we are extremely oversold. Meaning if we closed the month at these levels, then in Jan. CHK would close the month higher than Dec.'s close.
If CHK sells off on the CC, it should only last Mon and/or Tues., then turn up for a nice trade. Watch the open.
As for TBT, I'll be watching closely Mon. Hated to miss that 42 level on Friday, but I didn't have internet access at the time.
TBT's due for a nice move, though I don't think the top's in the treasuries yet.. Seems like a lot of people are calling a top here in the 10 yr treasury. I belive we will have a nice move in the TBT and then a new low.
The monthly TLT (long etf) chart shows more room to go to the up-side, and that's just for one month of being overbought. It can stay up as long as 4 months before dropping. That's why I don't think the top is in yet on the 20 yr treasury.
Time will tell.
You're welcome. And, I see crude futures are up quite a bit tonight. It's overdue for a runup.
You're in luck. Looks like these just got released a week ago:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/081125/20081125005275.html?.v=1
http://www.proshares.com/funds/ucd.html
WHAT'S THE TICKER SYMBOL?
Placed an order for TBT @ 41. Can't watch til late in day, so this is just in case things get real ugly.
I'm going to be real honest with you here. I know nothing about bonds. I've never owned any bonds or bond funds.
Never studied bond. Don't really understand how they work.... yeild... rate... price... yadda,yadda, yadda.....
I have a VERY basic understanding of bonds.
But, what I do know is, there's a bubble forming in the bond market. People will accept NOTHING just to protect their capital.
And, when people decide to get back into equities big time, bonds are going to crash. And when they crash, TBT is going to explode to the up-side.
How high will it go? Well, I think it will do like what DTO is doing.
I would draw trendlines on TBT and also TLT, more importantly, because it's been around a lot longer. TBT will move in the opposite direction of TLT.
I'm actually hoping TBT goes down again Friday, since I can;t watch the markets tomorrow. If it does, more than likely I'll buy it on Monday, or quite possibly late tomorrow, like 3:55 p.m.
The longer it stays down, the better the up-side move will be.
48.20 is the target I'm looking for on the coming 'pop'.
Watch the rsi. ;~)
All jmho,
dieselfuel
Shorting dollar.
What effect does that have on bonds? Is a falling dollar good .... or... bad for bonds?
The trigger will be because it's extremely oversold.
When bonds crash, that one will sky rocket.
When people decide to put REAL money back into the markets, they will sell bonds and they will crash, just like everything else has.
There's a new bubble in town... and it's bonds. lol!
Sold BGZ near the close for about a 10.5% profit. Was near 26% at one point. :~(
Can't watch tomorrow, so I don't want to own anything. Still have QID, though, so I'm taking a risk.
I don't trust this sell-off. I think it was for anticipation of tomorrow's un-employment number.
Unless it's absolutely horrible, I think the markets will shrugg it off.
If the markets sell-off tomorrow, there will be plenty of time to get in on the short side.
I'm watching closely TBT. When bonds crash, it will sky rocket.
It's EXTREMELY oversold on a daily basis and is way over due for a nice 'pop', at least for a day or 3. It's just a waiting game....
FWIW, a new low for CHK. eom
SKF is setting up real nicely. It's not ready yet, but it's sitting on the 200 sma as I type.
When it's ready and it 'pops', it should provide a nice profitable trade.
Watching...........................
Thanks, I'll enter the ticker symbols into my quote data bank.
Are you still holding DDM? You've done pretty good if you still have it.
Still holding QID and BGZ because I'm a glutton for punishment.lol! ;~)
O.k., sure.
TBT is a buy and ready for a good run here.
BTW, in a perfect world, it's going to a buck. SO, I don't think 9 is out of the question, just in case you want to sell or short or whatever....
Ahhh Hmmmmmm..... hope you didn't get too hurt hanging on. Still time to get out and back in much lower. lol!
We'll, I don't think 90 cents is out of the question. I can't give specific dates for targets, just educated guesses. But, I think it's safe to say by Dec. 2012.
Israel striking Iran and all bets are off. That takes 6 million barrels of oil per day off of the market.
BTW, gasoline futures have been under a buck recently.
UGA going to 15.
I just re-ran the numbers on the NASDAQ monthly chart and I come up with 896 being THE low.
But this is no normal market. And, 'TRUE crashes' wipe out 90% (or more) of a bullmarket top. So, going by that, we're talking 513 for the NASDAQ as the ultimate low. Then, a new bullmarket would begin.
I used to think that low would occur around Oct. 2012, but, it looks to me as if we're two years ahead of schedule. So, I guess the low will occur in 2010, instead.
Stay tuned. :~)
FWIW,
df
I thought all possible bad news was discounted - but apparently not
No way. There's a lot more to surface, imo. Like consumer credit. Like commercial real estate.
It's gonna get real ugly before the markets hit bottom.
I see no end in sight. That light at the end of the tunnel is a train. lol!
Of course, we'll have some VIOLENT up-ward moves along the way. That one last week was nothing compared to what's ahead.
The lower the indexes go, the more violent the upside moves will be.
It we close this month just at today's price on the indexes, that's going to provide a lot more potential energy for the upside move.
And, if we close lower in Jan. 09 too, then Feb.09 is going to provide one EXPLOSIVE up-side move that's gonna even impress me, who is expecting such moves.
FWIW, I thought I had to post this as a little stress reliever, I'm a little scared. Money shouldn't be this easy to make: Either on the short side, or the long side.
Reminds me of 1998 when I made a ton of money and didn't have a clue as to what I was doing. Hightide lifts all boats......
Worst thing that happen to me. Lost it all and then some. Didn't know why, either........
Scarry times in the markets... history in the making, for sure.....
df
NASDAQ: Watch 1387.12 That's the 61.8% re-tracement level of last weeks move (which was over 148 points! for a short week!).
If it breaks down through that re-tracemnt level, then the NASDAQ is going to new a new low.
And, I belive this is the scenario that will un-fold.
I've got to believe that ater the move last week, getting J6P all jazzed up, and todays actions depressing the same people, hedge fund will be getting swamped again for redemption request.
And, I think more J6P's will be move retirement money to money market.
JMHO,
dieselfuel
2:15 p.m. margin call selling is going to be REAL INTERESTING today.
Lot of good info on the net this weekend. Here's one:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_eB31NsfANe8/STFr6qqQQUI/AAAAAAAAA04/zR948J8eOcY/s1600-h/081129+dow+rallies.png
http://declineandfallofwesterncivilization.blogspot.com/
I saw that and was going to respond that he's coming across as an idiot. But I thought, why bother?
I'll bet him the DJIA sees 1000 before it sees 100,000. ;~)
No, I didn't.
Dailys look ready to sell off. The weeklys show quite a bit of room to run on the up-side.
The monthlys are well oversold. BUT, the problem I have is, the monthlys can stay oversold for this month and Jan. 09 before turning.
This is a scenario that I have: The DJIA, SP500, NASDAQ< and the Russells continue sideways to lower through Jan. 2009, before moving to the up-side.
If that plays out, then I believe we can have a 50% up-side move between the lows and the Oct. 2007 highs.
Seems to be a lot of bullishness this week, so maybe that's a good sign concerning my scenario.
I mean, a lot of people who were very negative on the markets are now almost giddy.
Gonna be interesting next week.....
Exceeded the DJIA target by a bit and BLEW AWAY the SP500 target. The next target up for the SP500 is 904.82. And that's vey do-able on Monday.
NASDAQ is about 3 points away from my target at 1538. Next target up-side I have is 1545.79 Again, very do-able Monday.
The DJIA and the SP500 look to pullback now. Any more up-side is a gift, imo. If they open green Monday, I believe they both will reverse and close red.
The NASDAQ still has room on the daily chart for a green day.
All imho,
td
P.S.: The SKF hit a low today of 133.61 :~)
Cort,
Are you still holding DDM?
On a daily basis, any more 'green' for the indexes is a gift, imo.
On a monthly, they're oversold, though, they could stay there for another month or so. That's the delemia, so I like the watch the daily and weekly charts for short-term trades.
The ultimate, for me, buy and sell signal occur when the daily, weekly, and monthly rsi all line up together. It does'nt happen often, but when it does, it's a powerful signal.
BGZ @ 69.38. Wish me luck! Also, SKF is a buy here, imo, for at least a short term (2-5 day) trade.
Too many 'buys', not enought money..... ;~)
EEV looks good here($72 range). Any lower, and it's a gift, imo. Should be good to go for a nice short term trade, at least.
Watching it...................
SKF's 200 ema lies at 132.51 and the 200 sma lies at 125.86
It broke through the 50 ema (around 153) hopefully it goes and touches the 200 ema (at least). That would make a GREAT entry, imo.
Gotta run .....
If this is a normal pullback in an up-trend, it'll stop at 1388, or possibly at 1413 before continuing up.
Out QLD @ 24.18 Can't watch for a while so I took gains.