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ariafan - maybe you already know and maybe not, but when you buy small cap stocks of any kind you should be prepared to handle a 20% drop at any time. The drops can occur for good reasons, bad reasons or no reasons as well as market conditions or general economic conditions. If you have the right stock it will recover in a timely way and return to an upward trend. IMO, Ariad is a stock that will do just that after the current market turmoil is over this year or next year. Ariad has only dropped 20% so far. If the market craters, the drop could be another 10 or 15%, that remains to be seen.
If you suffer too much from the turmoil, you may have to rethink your risk tolerance.
Response Genetics (RGDX) recently launched a test for ROS1 gene arrangements in response to a recent study by Mass General Cancer Center (MGH) that showed that ROS1 driven tumors are sensitive to crizotinib in treating NSLC patients with ALK gene rearrangements. according to RGDX, the number of patients with ROS1 represent an additional 1 to 2 percent of patients who might be candidates for crizotinib. Response Genetics will offer both FISH and PCR based ROS1 translocation testing.
Question - Will these ROS1 patients also represent an addition population that will be eligible 113 treatment?
Dew, I think NVS is only concerned about control of the voting shares.
Addition - The NVS ownership should read "including Affiliates".
Dew D. Novartis owns 53,332,863 shares as of 12/31/11 per Novartis Ltd, Basel.
The Roche Oeri family pool owns 72,018,000 as of 3/24/2011.
Maja Oeri owns 8,091,900 as of 3/24/2011.
It looks like NVS has about 30+% from my calculations unless there is something I don't get.
Cheers
Intriguing article. How well the study controlled or looked at other factors is far from clear.
At first glance, it seems safe to assume that statin takers were more health conscious and more treatment compliant than the larger group. For example, they would be expected to have detected uterine cancer at earlier stages when it was 100% treatable. So, this might be more of a study reflecting the effect of being in a group of self-selected heath conscious people who acquire cancer and have a life style that reduces the risk of death from cancer as well as all other causes.
The hypothesis that NVS would be interested in taking over Ariad is flawed for two substantial reasons.
1) NVS already owns Gleevec and Tasigna from which they obtain substantial revenues. Buying Ariad would only serve to canabalize those revenues. It will be a lot cheaper to generate PR that says that says that the differences between Tasigna and Ponatnib aren't great enough to switch from one to the other.
2) More important is the actual structure and long term intentions of NVS. Between 2008 and 2011 they bought Alcon for $51 billion. They are still digesting this huge acquisition. Prior to that, their intention had been to buy Roche which owns Genentech. NVS now owns over 30% of Roche. The family pool of the Roche & Oeri families own 45.1%. They had owned a controlling interest of 50.01% until Maja Oeri who owns 5.057% defected from the pool and took away their controlling board position. If NVS can join with Maja Oeri they will only need to acquire or control another 13-16% (don't know the exact number) to have a controlling position of Roche and therefore of Genentech. If NVS has an acquisition target, Roche is most certainly it. Ariad is just small potatoes to them (but not to me).
From the way I see it, Ariad has had an upward bias against both the XBI and the IBB yesterday and today. ASH info seems to have given the pps just a bit more bounce.
Rest assured that you are wrong. I don't know how familiar you are with the sales forces of the larger pharmas but they just are not and never have been very impressive. This is much less of a hurdle than you are conjuring up. The size of the hurdle is a function of the experienced professional that Ariad brings in. Berger has had a long time to study this issue. If he has one stellar quality, it is his ability to find,hire and retain great talent.
"LOGIC of my reasoning"??
Technically, Berger should probably be referring to them as the fifth and sixth.
Kudos to Rachel McMinn. She is now showing some leadership in her more recent thought provoking analyses.
My bad.
SAC like in Strategic Air Command. I think they're in Nebraska or somewhere like close if I remember correctly
UBS just raised the price target from $23 to $29 with a buy rating.
Perhaps you would be kind enough to enlighten me by being more explicit.
And your point is??
Jeffries raises price target from $21 to $28 with a buy rating.
"SAC"don't know that acronym. Please advise
Analysts moving pps estimates this am
Brean Murray goes from $19 to $35 rating BUY
BMO goes from$31 to $36 rating OUTPERFORM
Stiefel Nicolaus goes from$24 to $25 rating BUY
Sure Don - Fun idea. I pick November 1.
Perhaps this is old news to all of you but I just noticed that MD Anderson is initiating a clinical trial using Ponatanib in October describe as Hyper-CVAD and Ponatinib in Ph-Positive and/or BCR/ABL
Positive Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL).
No doubt that it was an attempt to manipulate share price expectations.
Don - that is reeally funny!
What looks like a weak open is actually stronger than a first glance suggests. Ariad is running opposite to the XBI and IBB.
dav1234 "treatment"?
I agree with your take on tax strategies jan-d
Is oncological viral methodology familiar to anyone such as is being developed by
www.oncos.com - a Finnish company.
Ariad is not of interest to HFT .
Thanks - That! is useful.
Unlikely that HFT are in this stock very much at this point. The volume of available stock has dropped considerably. Any program action that is out there right now looks much more like it is moppping up all shares that are coming loose. There seems to be a solid bid in the market for at $20.50 and lower. Some random computer action is a function of various index trades.
Thanks Vidpok for pointing out the truly, but nonetheless overlooked fact, that it is Thursday here too. Just got a little lost in my illusions - hopefully, the same scenario obtains tomorrow.
The action in Ariad's pps is quite remarkable today. I know I am stating the obvious but this is a more important trading day then most. This is Friday, the market is off, the future is uncertain and Ariad is making new highs on low volume. It's hard to get a better scenario then that.
So does that imply that if all goes well in P1 and P2 that may eventually see a head to head with Tarceva as we now see with Gleevec?
ariadndndough, I gues what I am asking is more elusive. Is there the possibility that 113 will have the same quality of avoiding the generation of mutations, thereby, creating a more sustained and widespread response much the same as pona does versus gleevec?
AP26113 vs Tarceva - Any thoughts?
McMinn is an not strait when it comes to Ariad. Her price targets are ones that the stock has already met. This style is designed for her personal record as an analyst not for the investor who she is supposed to serve. This is actually a rather shameful practice and she should be called on it. She doesn't give guidance, she gives history. If she wants to be a financial historian just say so but don't pretend to be an analyst.
Does this hurt the investor? You bet it does. THere are actually folk out there her consider what she says and she has single handedly talked many an investor off the stock with her self-serving after the fact approach. Shame on you Rachel McMinn.
Although I am no expert in this area, I suspect that if Ariad wanted to definitively determine if 113 could cross the blood brain barrier they would tag it radioactively and then check the results with a scan. That would eliminate the circularity and might even drive up the stock price at the same time.
You guys ever get the felling that someone is messing with you?
OT NFLX - Please be very wary of this one. If anyone is still interested after reading the 10K, take a cold shower, go for a long ride and have a good dinner. You might have forgotten about it in due course. The off balance sheet liabilities are staggering.