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Yes, don't know what else they'd be.
Here's ya go. Tell me what you make of it.
I have TVIX and CVOL, not sure why I keep doing that as UVXY performed much better last go around.
Honestly I can't tell, the 1 hr MACD is in the process of crossing over and if it continues ther's a good chance it does.
Breaking out?
INUV: Inuvo, Chairman and CEO Richard Howe Issues 2014 Letter to Shareholders
Inuvo, Chairman and CEO Richard Howe Issues 2014 Letter to Shareholders
INUV: Inuvo, Chairman and CEO Richard Howe Issues 2014 Letter to Shareholders
Inuvo, Chairman and CEO Richard Howe Issues 2014 Letter to Shareholders
Once again while gold has me convinced metals are headed higher silver has me concerned this rally will be short lived. It's absolutely critical silver breaks $17.411
Gold rocking and GDX following
NG needs to break this mornings low, if that happens the bounce turns into a great short op.
Remember what I said last night, it still needed OMH before the dump. It's coming, I can feel it, and we're not talking about a couple of bucks either.
Why yes, yes it is. 2070 would be the start of what could end up being a 100 point decline.
NG NICE>>>>>>>>
Big Day for data
07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.00% 3.93%
07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) -4.6%
07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index 206.7 207.1
07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index 412.5 427.3
07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index 1,596.5 1,697.2
08:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.5% 0.4%
08:30 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Apr) 0.1% 0.1%
08:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Apr) 0.3% -0.3%
08:30 USD Retail Control (MoM) (Apr) 0.5% 0.4%
08:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.9%
08:30 USD Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Apr) 0.5%
10:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Mar) 0.2% 0.3%
10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.386M -3.882M
10:30 USD EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 0.829M 1.503M
10:30 USD Gasoline Inventories 0.429M 0.401M
13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction 1.925%
Good Morning EST
Gold over $1200 certainly helps the bullish case. Honestly I haven't seen the bulls and bears going at it the way they are now in a very long time. Tells me both sides are feeling the pressure.
That was a good question. If I though CL had one more high why would I buy DWTI before after hours trading ended. Why not wait until morning?
You have to remember that futures trade 23 hours a day and being so close to what I think will be the high it's possible that we top overnight and actually gap down before I can start trading at 6. AM.
Also if you guys can't trade before or after normal trading hours I'd suggest Scottrade. I can trade normal equities from 6 AM to 8 PM Monday through Friday and believe me this is a super important tool for swing traders like us.
Thank you for the update today.
IWM finally hit my target on the chart up in the stickies. Time to take it down and put something useful up.
Elliott Waves Explained
Elliott Wave Theory
Elliott Wave Theory is quite straightforward. Created by Ralph Nelson Elliott and first published in his book “The Wave Principle” in 1938, this theory has suffered numerous misinterpretations at the hands of careless analysts. It is true that Ralph Elliott was not an expert copywriter, and he tried to present a more comprehensive version in his final work “Nature’s Laws: The Secret of the Universe” in 1946. However, a diligent student can learn quite a lot by paying attention to not just the main features of the Elliott Wave Theory, but also to the numerous clues that are strewn in all of Ralph Elliott’s works. In this article, I will try and summarize some of the main points of the Wave Theory. Also explained are Elliott Wave Cycle, the three key Elliott Wave Rules that are considered the pillars of the Wave Principle, and the Personality of some waves such as the third wave in a cycle.
The Elliott Wave Cycle
Ralph Elliott found that in an uptrend, or a bull phase of the market, prices went up in five waves. Three of these waves were in the upward direction, and he called these waves ‘impulse waves’. Each of the three waves was followed by a downward movement, which he called a ‘corrective wave’. Here is a clue that is not often very clear! Whereas the first and second impulse waves were followed by a smallish correction, the downward move that came after the fifth wave up was a larger move. This was so because this last mentioned downward move corrected not just the preceding impulse wave (the 5th wave) but also the entire five wave sequence.
So to recap, in a bull market, we will see three upward moves and two downward moves. Once the five waves are completed, we will get a correction that will be bigger than the two previous corrections because this downward move corrects not just the fifth wave, but the entire set of five waves up.
If a sequence of five waves plus three waves is completed as above from a significant low, then the completed cycle will represent the first and second waves of a cycle in the time frame of the nest higher degree. Every impulse wave is actually made up of a five-wave sequence within itself. Corrective waves are usually made up of three waves, or combinations of three-wave sequences.
Elliott Wave Rules
The Elliott Wave Principle has just three straight forward rules. In a five wave progression,
Wave 2 can never exceed the start of wave 1
Wave 3 can never be the shortest impulse wave
Wave 4 can never overlap wave 1 (i.e. cross into the same price area) expect within a diagonal triangle.
Easy enough, right? The trouble is to understand how to use these rules to your advantage over a wide range of asset classes. That comes with practice and an understanding of how Elliott Waves differ from one chart to the next as each asset class can and does have it own individual nuances that can only be discovered through application.
Wave Personality:
In addition to giving us the rules of Elliott Wave Theory, Ralph Elliott also discussed the personality of the waves at various positions in the cycle. For example, the third wave is usually the steepest wave, and is accompanied by expanding volume. A corrective wave in the fourth wave position is usually complex in nature. You will see sudden departures from normative behavior. Also, just when you think a correction is almost finished, a complex fourth wave will add another level of complexity to the formation. These are just some examples of wave personality.
Alternation between waves:
Another feature of Elliott Waves is the tendency of waves to alternate between long and short, between simple and complex, between the length s of time that alternating waves spend etc. For example, if wave 2 was a simple correction, you should expect wave 4 to be complex. These are valuable clues to the trade that can offer a real edge in the market, the so-called Elliott Wave Edge.
Fibonacci Ratios in Elliott Waves:
Any explanation of Elliott Wave Theory, however brief, will be incomplete without a mention of the use of Fibonacci Ratios. These ratios are computed from the Fibonacci number series that start of like this 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21…. As you can see, each number is the sum of the preceding two numbers. Fibonacci Ratios are computed from these numbers.
The key ratios used in Elliott Wave Analysis are 38.2%, 50%,61.8%, 100%, 138.2% and 161.8%
Generally speaking, the following relationships work:
Wave 1 is corrected by wave 2 by between 50% to 100% (note that 50% is obtained by dividing 1 by 2 in the Fibonacci series of numbers)
Wave 3 is usually 161.8% of wave 1
Wave 4 is often 38.2% of wave 3. Occasionally, when wave 1 was a shallow correction, we can see wave 4 coming down by 50% of wave 3, and very rarely 61.8% of wave 3. If wave 3 was an extension, then wave 4 is more likely to terminate around the 23.6% retracement level.
Wave 5 is often computed by taking either a 38.2% measure or a 61.8% measure of the distance traveled from the start of wave 1 to the end of wave 3. If Wave 3 had extended, then there is a high chance for wave 5 to be equal to wave 1.
Within corrections, in a zigzag correction, wave C is often 161.8% of wave A. If the correction is a flat correction, then wave C is usually equal to wave A or no more than 138.2% of wave A.
You can read more about the Fibonacci Number Series here.
Corrective Waves:
Most traders encounter difficulties when dealing with corrective waves. Elliott Wave theory has broadly classified corrections as Zigzags, Flats and Triangles.
A zigzag correction often corrects the previous impulse wave by a significant extent. A zigzag correction is made up of two sets of mini-impulse waves separated by a corrective wave. Thus the sub-waves of a zigzag correction tend to be 5-3-5 waves sequence.
A flat correction, on the other hand, will only correct a smaller portion of the previous impulse wave. Furthermore, the sub waves of the flat correction will be made up of a 3-3-5 sequence. Notice that in the zigzag as well as flat correction, the last sub wave is a five wave affair!
Triangles are further classified as horizontal triangles and leading or ending triangles. The sub-waves of these triangles have their own personality traits. If it is a leading diagonal triangle, the sub waves are made up of 5-3-5-3-5 waves. But if it is an ending diagonal triangle, the sub waves are 3-3-3-3-3 waves.
Don’t be alarmed, but sometimes corrections tend to become complex whereby we see combinations of zigzags, flats or triangles. This is why I always advise traders to avoid trading complex corrections. You can identify a complex correction using the tendency of waves to alternate in complexity. Occasionally wave 2 becomes a complex wave, in which case your stop loss is anyway supposed to be placed below the start of the wave 1!
The Elliott Wave Edge:
When a trade uses Elliott Wave Analysis to determine where we are in the big picture, and then computes likely levels where a turn is highly probable, then he/she has what I would like to call the Elliott Wave Edge. Once he uses all the rules, his knowledge of the personality of the waves, and the price targets using Fibonacci Ratios, the trader will be able to determine a price level where he could initiate a position in the market place. After that, it all boils down to money management. The determination of a low-risk entry level is the key benefit of doing Elliott Wave Analysis. A trader who has the Elliott Wave edge will find that the consistent application of the Elliott Wave analysis to his trading activity will produce a series of winning trades that will make him money over time.
I came across a short but informative Elliott Wave summation I'm going to post. I'll also make it a sticky so you guys can reference it if necessary. I'll be more than happy to answer whatever questions you may have. I also wanted to point out that this is just a guide as many of the fib levels I use differ from what you'll see in this guide. While they differ in number the concept is still the same. So if you actually want to apply any of this info again I'll be happy to answer whatever questions you have and at the same time provide you with the correct application numbers.
The answer to that Dec SPX question was it was the last time we had more VXX calls bought than we had yesterday. As a matter of fact there's only been like 5 times in the last 6 months we had more VXX calls bought and those we're like on OpEx or the day before. The reason I'm thinking yesterday was so important was because this months VXX OpEx is not until next Wednesday. Not sure if it means anything but guess we'll find out.
I can't believe I just erased the arss reply I had put together. Yes Wrinkles it would be a MONSTER call and I'm sticking by it. Mark me down and put my label of this call. SK said oil would hit a low between $37 and $32 before a bottom.
GDX is without question pending a breakout but we need GC to get in gear and make up some ground. I know I've been saying that for a while but it may finally be upon us because the chart is simply running out of room and needs to make a decision. Now with that being said please remember that I've been calling for a final low from gold after this move higher so please keep that in mind when trading the miners. Now that I got the warning out of the way I'm pretty siked about the miners and gold. Unfortunately the GDX count is so complicated I have a $10 range for the high from this bounce. All the way from GDX $21 to GDX $31. That's right I can one count on my chart that could take GDX as high as $31 before new lows. Just to be fair let's call the first target at $21.50 and hopefully I'll be able to get a better handle on the detailed count by the time it get's there. I do believe I said $23.50-$25 from my first call so that's most likely where it'll go but I'm not taking the uber bullish count off the chart until I have a reason.
Not sure it anyone seen the huge jump in VXX calls yesterday
Free on close watch. I do believe something is going on here and we'll get some kind of news in the very near future.
Hey Bro, was wondering if you'd mind taking a look at RGSE's earnings released yesterday. I'm long and adding so just curious what you think.
Also added a few TVIX at $1.13, already have a decent size position in CVOl but the flipping volume is so low on this one right now I had to buy in 1k blocks. If all goes well I'll be adding UVXY in the morning.
Right before the close I bought DGAZ at $5.54 and DWTI at $60.10