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At $3 billion cap, i wouldnt exactly call ARIA a small company anymore.
Purely technical.
After the run it has had, it is due for some pullback. Sitting right on the 20 DMA right now (not surprising it stopped there). If there's a swoon, next stop is down to the 50 DMA where I would expect a strong bounce.
PCYC
marketcap is $3 billion here. Probably a level some people might be taking gains, as its a nice round number.
According to doctors in this study, GDC0449 and Gemzar is an effective combination in a subset of patients.
http://weeksmd.com/2012/06/pancreatic-cancer-gemzar-and-cancer-stem-cells/
Why do you care about Rachel McMinn?? LOL!!
You think Merrill Lynch upgrade is going to propel this to new heights?? LOL - it made it to 18 without her, and it will make it to 25 without her as well.
The reason this junk hasnt moved in months and is met with large short selling is because the main Director from Contactual is unloading 20-30,000 daily, and the balance of the 7 million shares from the Contactual acquisition has been for sale by those owners for months now.
I think this acquisition is nothing special and I would be surprised if this segment is growing anywhere near 10% at this point - a true shame.
Huge news?
OK. Is being up one penny "huge"?
Give me a break.
You can doubt whateve theory you want, however, the theory in question was about ARNA....NOT...ARIA (the question was about a bear raid in Arena).
I think some very smart hedge fund saw the thing "cracking" in premarket, and dumped everything, which in turn triggered a bunch of stops.
Please don't make a big deal out of it.
It's all part of Russell Rebalancing. That's all/
You dont think "depleting the stroma" is the reason why the addition of abraxane is working? This is contrary to what most KOLs are saying about it then.
What is your rationale? Stem cells?
CELGZ
No. I'm comparing a bubble 12 years ago, to an abysmal, RATIONAL market in 2012.
It wouldnt surprise me to see ARIA up nicely tomorrow because Berger and Clackson communicate very optimistically with shareholders, in recent times.
ROTFLMAO.
Several years ago Books'a'Million (BAAM) went up 50 points in a few minutes because they announced they were opening an internet web site.
Give me a break with the nonsense of history repeating itself from the biggest stock market bubble of all time.
I dont really know about "panic buying" but, certainly, buying.
BTW, IMO, the stock will probably be way up before the general public realizes 113 is working.
Those darn, evil, MMs!
I tell ya!
Does INFI have anything in their pipeline that is worth greater than $400 million to a potential acquirer?
It's baffling to me this thing isnt trading closer to $200 million.
Either (a) there is a "known" bid (by someone who has inside knowledge) that this company is going to be acquired,or (b) someone like Baker Brothers, BVF, Orbimed etc., made a big bet, and now has to unravel their position with out killing the stock - and unraveling the position slowly, and deliberately making it appear as though there are still bids in the name (very possible in an illiquid company like INFI). Someone has been propping this POS up over the past several months - and I do believe Baker Bros initiated a position as of last 13Fs.
But, what does this company have that is worth their current market cap? I wouldnt trust a thing their management says about their pipeline after the disaster their Hh program turned out to be, considering they continued to label it a much better drug than Roche's Erivedge.
I am curious.
What are your reasons for NOT lightening up? Do you think Ariad is undervalued here? (it is $3 billion market cap, and yes, Ponatinib is a layup, but may very well be baked in at current valuation). Are you afraid of missing a buyout potential? If Ariad didnt have 113, would you think its fairly valued?
For the record, I think 113 CAN add a new dimensional upswing to the stock.
Thanks, I am just curious as to sentiment as to why one would not sell stock at current valuation.
I was driving up to Boston from NYC yesterday and noticed AMGEN has a large office building on 95 NORTH in Rhode Island. Could that mean they are interested in taking over Ariad?
Dont worry. If ARIA breaks $15.75 again, I'll be back to my normal self :o)
LOL - out of that entire list, of course ARQL would be the only one as "neutral" aka sell.
Would love to hear the reason.
When volumes are low and asset class correlations are approaching 1:1 (they're at around 80% yesterday), everything goes down, and up, together - it's not human trading, it's algorithmic, programmed trading. It's not manipulation.
Fix the Euro-Douche problem, and humans will actively take risk again. Until then, we are a listless, garbage stock market. Just like last year and the year before.
OMG
They're (the evil, damn "MM's") manipulating it higher today!! (Because the .COMP-O is up 21).
Give me a break.
Novartis isn't going to buy Ariad. You think they're going to buy Ariad for a few billion, AFTER spending oodles of money on developing Tasigna?
I wish the NIH would give me a $500,000 grant to develop one of these assinine studies.
What a freakin' waste of money.
Try taking a look at this dogsh-t market before claiming manipulation...
Bubbles can stick around for a long time (especially, ones of the macro kind).
It's the unraveling which happens very quickly, in bubbles.
Yeah, I can seriously see the final analysis being extremely controversial. Having Merck Kg say something like, "if you take out all patients in the Ukraine, Bosnia, Russia, etc., etc., the drug was......" bla blah blah.
Do you think that, IF, the SOC arm is not surviving incredibly longer than other previous studies, the trial did not halt for efficacy at the 2IA due to some abnormality in enrollment, dropouts, or some other effect the trial halt would have caused? ONTY
I agree. Something is incredibly off from some of the data enrollment curve theories posted on VIC and SA. It would really be odd if the SOC is just miraculously living much longer than many studies are currently showing.
IMO, the trial halt did something to affect things - I personally dont buy the SOC arm is living 36+ months theory
Paying up to $5,000 for articles.
Oh god...where do I sign up?!?!?
Are you inferring that the MARQUEE trial for '197 will not meet efficacy when unblinded?
IMO,you're an extremely intelligent person, extremely overthinking things to the point where any mathematical outcome you derive will ultimately prove your theory.
I am pretty sure you could probably develop a mathematical equation which would priori prove that NO drug would have ever met efficacy hurdles based on some sort of statistical guidance.
Death is certain for everyone; but, I'm sure someone will develop some sort of equation that says it's not.
Lol. Personally, I would LOVE to see a 125% premium to today's current closing price. ...but, that's just me.
You know what I'd really like?
To wake up Monday a.m. (Merger Monday) and see a $35.00 bid on the tape for ARIA from some desperate pharmaceutical dinosaur.
For everyone's benefit (except for anyone short the stock)
Let's get this PIG to break out of it's new base (higher, that is).
Roche Drug Reduces Skin Growths In Gene-Mutation Patients
By Naomi Kresge - Jun 6, 2012 5:00 PM ET
A Roche Holding AG (ROG) skin cancer drug reduced the size and number of growths in people genetically predisposed to the disease in a study published today, even as half the participants quit because of side effects.
Erivedge, also known as vismodegib, reduced the rate of new basal cell carcinomas to two per year, compared with 29 new growths in patients who got a placebo, according to results published today in the New England Journal of Medicine. The Roche pill shrank existing growths in the study.
“It is a landmark day for patients with basal-cell carcinoma and all those involved in their care,” John Lear, a consultant dermatologist at Manchester Royal Infirmary, wrote in an editorial accompanying the studies. Lear called Erivedge “the greatest advance in therapy yet seen for this disease.”
The study followed 41 patients with basal-cell nevus syndrome, or Gorlin syndrome, a rare hereditary disorder caused by a malfunctioning gene. Patients can have thousands of lesions, in some case losing ears and eyes to the disease, Lear said.
Yet the 54 percent drop-out rate for patients with such a serious form of the disease shows that a more targeted topical therapy -- a cream or injected medicine -- may be helpful to bring the treatment to a wider group of patients, Lear said.
Topical and injected approaches have been discussed in the past for Erivedge but haven’t been successful, Daniel Grotzky, a spokesman for Basel, Switzerland-based Roche, said by e-mail.
Side effects of Erivedge include losing one’s sense of taste, muscle cramps, loss of hair and weight loss.
Erivedge was approved in the U.S. in January for advanced basal cell carcinoma. The New England journal also published a detailed analysis of the study in locally advanced and metastatic basal cell carcinoma that was the basis for regulators’ approval.
Roche is studying the medicine in a mid-stage trial of people with operable basal cell carcinoma, Grotzky said.
Roche is developing Erivedge under an agreement with Lexington, Massachusetts-based Curis Inc. (CRIS)
Berger on CNBC
I think it is great he has never sold a single share of this company - unlike most of the freeloading pieces of crap in biotechland who use public stock as their own internal ATM machine.
"Mini-Celgene" --- certainly looking that way.
The stock moves around. Do you expect her to update her target daily, depending on where the price is?
Her NPV isnt going to change based on price movement of the stock. It WILL change depending on the value of the assets.
I think Rachel's analysis is pretty correct, right now. There's a ton of room for upside in her report.
Only an idiot or a fool Wall Street analyst builds or sets up their reports for major disappointment. Theyre always "better be safe than sorry"....she would look bad if she said '113 should have $15/per share value, this early in the game. There's plenty of upside in this report - other indications for Rida, 113, Ponatinib moving front line etc etc.
Her conservatism (or realistic view) will have a greater effect on stock price if she decides to improve upon her price targets when 113 becomes more front and center.