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And, in terms of stock price momentum, if people become convinced regarding 113 in egfr NSCLC, that will be the biggest one, because it's so totally unfactored in all existing value models...
Doug, I realized you understood that distinction, but I figured there may be some here that didn't-
What's gratifying about this development, however, is that contrary to all the naysayers concerning Iclusig's commercial prospects, instead of docs only prescribing to T315Is, they appear to be ignoring mutational status altogether, b/c when you have a drug that covers them all,
why bother-
They're prescribing their best drug(and quickly as justifiable) because it works;
what could be more obvious(or more beneficial for rapid and broad Iclusig adoption)!
He sounded supremely confident, but I admired the way he held himself back from jumping ahead of the data-clearly, however, he believes they have a t790m cohort-defined winner in 113 for NSCLC!
Very big!
You sure do like taking risks, seeing as the longer-term downtrend line(since Oct 2012) is at just about that strike($21).
Frankly, until we break that resistance in convincing fashion, all boom-boom talk, particularly from a technical POV, seems very premature.
In view of that trend line, shorts loading up at the 200sma makes a lot of sense(again, strictly from a technical POV).
Since I'm not really a trader, I haven't sold anything, and am also counting on us getting beyond this obstacle in the near future.
However, betting on it happening by June seems a little reckless,
so I hope your faith in a higher power is justified-
Maybe a little prayer would be in order...???
Best,
bw
Nothing-just a late report...
GEEZ-it may not take long-
Getting very squeezy all of a sudden...
The tight hammer we're seeing today, that Andy referred to, certainly suggests that any such resistance is soon to be support-
As such, I suspect we'll be testing 20.50(sma200) any/day/time now...
Enjoying the return trip-
Particularly comforting seeing as I paid the taxes on my entire Ariad position in 2012 at approx $22.90/share.
Therefore, seriously salivating at the thought of getting all my(now tax-free)money back lol!
What a trip...
Yes, Major Congratulations!!!
I just wonder what kind of charts both of you have been consulting in making that bet:)
Definitely the biggest of a lifetime-
I'm sure her head must be well above those clouds you're always talking about...
Seriously,
Best of Luck!!!
bw
Just the opposite from my point of view-
but apparently, I'm in the minority.
Also, I'm sure you know those puts weren't mine-
I usually sell them a lot longer term, and almost never for a premium of less than a buck/share.
As I think you also know, the time to sell these(big)was down in the 15s/16s.
Hope you didn't wait for your "clouds to clear" to take a position lol!
Because that's when some anxious people on this board seem to need to be reminded of the obvious virtues and value of this company.
When the stock is going up, most of us long term holds simply see it as confirmation of the obvious, and all that would be left for us to say is "we told you so",
which is generally better left unsaid lol!
I suspect many of us are also busy attending to(and/or researching)other investments, that we may not be as confident of long term.
No problem-almost passed on doing so myself, in so much as there's nothing there that most of us don't already know-
actually, even a little behind the prevailing curve, since he doesn't even mention 113's egfr potential.
Nice out performance today-a close above 19 would be a major victory in view of recent hx and today's IBB...
btw, not counting on it.
SA survey Article on Ariad(nothing new, but a good form of advertising):
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1453891-ariad-s-cancer-drug-iclusig-extends-the-gleevec-magic?source=email_rt_article_readmore
TSRX-Patent of tedizolid/daptomycin combo appears to allow for strong possibility of significant increase in market cap value and buyout potential:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1431601-trius-therapeutics-new-positive-dimension-for-investment-outlook?source=email_rt_mc_focus_0
As well as the advantages of a large pharma with a massive sales network-
that may be the real marker of the effect of the boxed warning-without it, the relatively poorly informed cancer doc would probably be switching to Iclusig by now in larger numbers that they already are.
So that, instead of hurting us in absolute terms(relative to analyst projections), the boxed warning has hurt in blocking us from exceeding them to an even greater degree than we already have!
No doubt, a massive potential; one I can't imagine ariad scientists aren't already evaluating for possible development right now.
Assuming the highest efficacy(and comparable prevention of protein accumulation), ponatinib should be able to do the job at the lowest effective dose(a plus).
However, at the extremely low doses they're talking about, it may not make a lot of difference.
My question would then be is there any significant R/I that can occur at such low dosages-if there were, that might provide an edge(as well, of course, as a superior ability to breech the blood/brain barrier).
Thanks,
but we'll really need to get to and stay above the recent 19.21 high(maybe a few weeks, or longer) before this double is truly confirmed.
Before that, we'll have to breech the ema50(about 18.50) and a successful test of that 19.21 level should involve a retest, so this development could be a choppy, gradual process.
Another argument for your longer-term, golfer's approach to investing in Ariad...
Hate to brag...
Not really(lol),
but I was(via massive put sales)!
The Big BioPharma Playground
Since it is now obvious that NVS is capable of using illegal strategies to promote and defend their business interests, and drug sales on the level of Gleevec are certainly big business, I wouldn't be surprised to hear that they've played some sort of role in both the coordinated smear job of Iclusig, as well as some form of illegal hedge fund activities.
After the disclosures of their extensive kickback schemes of the last few days, I no longer believe such speculation falls under the category of alarmist conspiracy theory.
So, what we have is another abject lesson of how things often roll when a company attempts to make the transition to "the big leagues"
If they make it, which I have little doubt Ariad will, it's euphemistically characterized as "growing pains"; and if they don't,
well, just another case of would of, should of, could have been...
Needless to say, I think Harvey knows the game he's playing here, so I'm not to concerned about the long view.
After all, with the way things have been going, it's certainly a lot easier to look on the upside!
Could look it up, but I'll just guess:
Probable Rate of Success
In any event, that's the basic vibe, and I liked it too!
Well, I have to agree:
"We" do have our mind set on Ariad, and it is going to take a whole lot of money, but hopefully, not a whole lot of time;
but generally, yes, that about sums it up...
at least a lot better than some of your other videos(e.g. LECRAE)(http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=86334370) lol
I know no one wants to hear it, but this has been a pretty bad day for biotech overall-
though I know we haven't been going up with the sector(IBB), when its down, which is rare, almost 1% and the rest of the market is up, it hurts us, which is a lot of why our gains deflated as much as they did(this is because, even though our institutional ownership is down some, we still have a big Institutional ownership, and sector indices reflect their activity).
Be happy we weren't Arry today. They reported 1st qtr earnings and are down about 9.5%. Also, a lot of others down 2-3%.
Actually, I think the confusion here relates to the fact that Ariad will be starting the Ph2 portion of their 113 Ph1/2 trial with small(20pt)cohorts any minute(once they formalize the dosage),
while at the same time, they've announced that they will be starting a pivitol Ph2 trial for ALK+ NSCLC in Q3 with a larger cohort size to justify potential approval, again once they've established the dosage.
Whether you call that pivitol trial a Ph2 pivitol trial, or a Ph3 makes little difference because it's designed to achieve the same result>>> drug approval.
Bottom Line: In view of the new FDA approval paradigms, you can now skip the formal Ph1-Ph3 process if you have the goods(and essentially role Ph 1 and 2 functions into a single trial).
Hope that helps...
What a bunch of "Bitch and Moan" Whiners!!!
i.e. "Ditto Kipster!"
It would be funny, if the focus wasn't my largest investment by far-
actually, it is anyway...
needless to say, "mistakes have been made"(lol),
but this daily whining and whimpering fest is sadly amusing.
All those to whom this applies should take solace in the fact that time heals all wounds(even, and probably most particularly, Ariad's),
so, get a grip,
and please stop embarrassing yourself and whatever's left of this board.
Best bemused regards,
bw
Apart from the ALK/EGFR co-presence possibility(possible plus for 113), I'm wondering if the larger co-presence of MET mutations may have something to do with the efficacy of crizotinib(since it's also a MET inhibitor).
Since I don't believe 113 has any MET efficacy, I'm wondering what role this might play in it's use in the treatment of ALK+ NSCLC.
As they noted: "Clinical implication of MET mutation in our cases is uncertain and further study is needed."
Sadly yes, combined with a chronically weak economy.
But I don't think we can expect much relief from the Fed, because there is no doubt that they will continue to say(low interests rates forever), and do the same thing(print big money)they've been doing all along, because all the economic measures they attend to support it.
Far from being concerned about weak employment, they seem to be(and with some justification) becoming concerned about real deflation, which only reinforces the case, from their point of view, for more QE, etc. indefinitely.
Therefore, although they will continue to do the only things they can, don't expect any relief rally from it because absolutely no one will be surprised.
The real problem has to do with fiscal policy, over which they have no control, and concerning which they're unwilling to apply any political pressure.
Ghee, that might be "bad news"...
On the other hand, a second Ho Hum may be in order, since it could very well turn out to be just another fake out like the reverse H&Ss that preceeded it over the previous few months...
Since I IDed the first fakeout pattern, I guess it's only appropriate for me to nix this one...
Consider it so!
Best meaningless dueling technical regards,
bw
In addition to Harvey's sales though, is the issue that there are still a lot of big holders who bought the last offering at 19.60 who continue to be underwater.
That puts another big obstacle in the way of any major appreciation.
So, we need a real catalyst to break out of this trading channel.
The Best Part of this is, if they haven't already employed such tactics against us, they certainly won't be likely to now, and any such maneuvers already underway should be stopped cold by such probes!
Could, ironically, have a materially beneficial effect...
Despite the relatively miniscule nature of them, it looks like Harvey's 100000+ share sales (4-17-13) continue to hurt the share price.
I, like a lot of others, hoped the 105b plan would preclude share sales below a certain price(say $20),
but with a total family interest exceeding $71 million(via direct, indirect, trust, and personal positions), the proposed total sale of approx 10-11mil is pretty insignificant in that it has no effect on the fact that Harvey's interests will still remain firmly aligned with those of shareholders.
Still, I wish he had never made that statement about wanting to buy more shares if he could-
just provided more derision ready fodder for the critics!
Novartis-finally getting the kind of publicity it deserves-
first kickbacks and now wowing prescribing Drs at Hooters(CNBC report)!
Nice to see a major competitor providing such a favorable contrast to(what I assume is) Ariad's exemplary behavior...
Certainly speaks to a certain amount of desperation on their part-
If Ariad's recent Iclusig performance is any example, maybe they're starting to feel the heat of superior efficacy, and this is their response to the inevitable.
Or, perhaps this is just business as usual for them...
Either way, pretty sleazy!
That's what we saw yesterday-Sell in May tremors in biotech...
Yes, we're likely to see more of these, but whether it will pan out to be a real full fledged correction is what all the tremors and speculation are about.
The question is, despite earnings growth slowing and the seasonal correction pattern, will the Fed's endless QEs and zero interest rates trump all other factors and continue to support the market?
No one knows, but barring some other major world disaster, I'm betting it will through at least 2013.
Next question? lol
Actually, signing out for today.
Regards,
bw
Technically>>>
IBB still looking awfully good after it's mini-correction of the last few days(still less than 3% off it's all time high, despite the rapid high volume drubbing we just witnessed).
Considering our apparent linkage, this bodes well for Ariad.
Definitely part of the bigger picture, now, and for the foreseeable future.
All the more important that the drugs a company produces are truly best in class, thus better justifying the significant expenses involved...
Interestingly, Iclusig is just such a medicine(as is hopefully 113), while Rida(the drug we sold)is largely just the opposite.
In the current economic environment I continue to marvel at that coup!