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WTI 42.62 -0.40 -0.93%
HOD of UWTI so far has been 21.1899.
WTI 42.78 -0.24 -0.56%
WTI 43.05 +0.03 +0.07%
Thanks for your update and analysis.
WTI 42.77 -0.25 -0.58%
What is your reason for saying this?
I just added more at 96.75.
I just got completion at 98.80. It is sure better than the 101.48 I bought at this morning.
Good job!
WTI 42.53 +0.73 +1.75%
I sold UWTI at 18.87 and bought DWTI at 108.18.
WTI 41.41 +0.58 +1.42%
Oil Spikes After EIA Reports Significant Draw To Gasoline Stocks
By Irina Slav - Aug 03, 2016, 10:01 AM CDT
Permian Drillers
The Energy Information Administration reported a 1.4-million-barrel increase in crude oil inventories for the week to July 29, with the total reaching 522.5 million barrels. Yet again, this official data was in stark contrast with API estimates released yesterday.
Yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute injected some vigor into the market, reporting a draw of 1.3 million barrels for the last week of July. The figures were largely in line with expectations.
On a brighter note, however, the EIA said gasoline stockpiles fell by 3.3 million barrels last week, but distillate inventories went up by 1.2 million barrels. The agency noted gasoline stockpiles remain at an unusual high for the season. API had reported a 450,000-barrel draw in gasoline and a half-a-million-barrel buildup in distillate fuel.
Last week, the EIA reported an increase in petroleum stocks of 1.7 million barrels, which weighed on crude prices significantly, especially coupled with the build in gasoline stockpiles, which added fuel to fears that market fundamentals were far from rebalanced.
REFINERY THROUGHOUT WAS 16.9 MILLION BPD IN THE WEEK TO JULY 29, WHICH IS AN INCREASE OF 266,000 BPD ON AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK. THE AVERAGE OPERATING RATE WAS 93.3%. GASOLINE PRODUCTION INCHED DOWN TO 10 MILLION BPD, AND DISTILLATE OUTPUT ROSE TO 4.9 MILLION BPD.
Market sentiment has been increasingly bearish, with OPEC’s number one Saudi Arabia continuing to pump crude at record-high rates, despite a 40,000-barrel production decline over the month of July. Overall, OPEC output lost 80,000 bpd last month, thanks to more pipeline attacks in Nigeria and persistent production problems in Libya.
Crude did get a bit of a breather last Friday, when Baker Hughes reported just one new rig added to the total oil and gas count in the U.S. This was the fifth week of increases in a row, but the rate of increase had slowed significantly, which was the cause for an uptick in optimism.
U.S. crude inventory data has led to significant oil price volatility in recent weeks, with prices responding immediately to data based on fears that U.S. producers will feed the glut and send prices plummeting further.
WTI today opened at US$39.63 on Nymex, buoyed somewhat by the API data. Moments before EIA published the data, WTI was trading at $40.01, but at the time of writing, WTI had risen to US$40.22, after much volatility.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Spikes-After-EIA-Reports-Significant-Draw-To-Gasoline-Stocks.html
Just added more DWTI at 116.14. If WTI goes up I will add more.
WTI 39.42 -0.09 -0.23%
WTI 40.12 +0.61 +1.54%
WTI 39.47 -0.59 -1.47%
WTI 40.09 +0.03 +0.07%
WTI 40.78 +0.72 +1.80%
WTI 40.61 +0.55 +1.37%
Another crazy day!
WTI 40.27 -1.33 -3.20%
WTI 40.69 -0.91
WTI 40.74 -0.86 -2.07%
WTI 40.95 -0.65 -1.56%
WTI 41.05 -0.55 -1.32%
WTI 44.52
WTI 44.57
WTI 44.63
WTI 44.67
44.89 -0.86 -1.88%
Prev. Close: 45.75
Open: 45.65
Day's Range: 44.80 - 46.09
Oil Slides After Unexpected Gasoline Inventory Build
by Tyler Durden
Jul 19, 2016 4:40 PM
Following last week's surprise distillates build (and lower than expected crude draw) API reported inventories largely in line with expectations (-2.3mm vs -2mm exp. This nevertheless managed to pump and dump crude futures before drifting slightly lower as Gasoline showed a bigger than expected build (+800k vs -500k exp.).
API
Crude -2.3mm (-2mm exp)
Cushing -84k (-100k exp)
Gasoline +805k (-500k exp)
Distillates -484k
This is the 9th weekly daw in crude in a row... and Gasoline showed a major build vs expected draw...
The reaction was chaos in crude with stops ripped lower and higher before drifting lower..
Charts: Bloomberg
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-19/oil-slides-after-unexpected-gasoline-inventory-build
WTI 44.96
WTI Tumbles To $45 Handle As 'Failed Coup' Leaves Flows Unhindered
by Tyler Durden
Jul 18, 2016 9:02 AM
Despite Turkish turmoil, oil prices have resumed their downturn as the 'failed coup' has left flows unhindered and a stronger dollar (and waning gasoline demand) pushed WTI back to a $45 handle this morning.
Catalysts for the downside push appear to be:
0il tankers loading, unloading cargoes normally at Turkey’s ports and supplies arriving in ships and pipelines from neighboring countries, according to Turkey’s Energy Ministry.
Demand for gasoline in the U.S. fell last week even though it remains higher than the same period last year, as well as the five-year average.
However, overproduction in the past means gasoline inventories remain at a high level of around 240 million barrels, says the Oil Market Journal. The worry is that, as the end of the U.S. driving season is around the corner, demand for gasoline will plunge, leaving gasoline stocks elevated.
“With demand failing to meet expectations, and stocks holding high, we believe the risks remain to the downside," the note says.
And the US dollar is strengthening.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-18/wti-tumbles-45-handle-failed-coup-leaves-flows-unhindered
DWTI is at 85.35 in pre-market right now up 4.39 over Friday's close.
UWTI is 25.27 in pre-market right now.
Distillate stockpiles rose 4.1 million
Wednesday July 13, 2016 17:53
Gold found help in a mildly weaker dollar and semi-enthusiastic regular trading. It added up to a modest 0.80% gain on the day. Silver was up around 1.15% and ever-eccentric palladium rose 2.80% on the day.
Stocks in the U.S. are wavering between gains and loses without any truly clear sentiment prevailing. The fed’s Beige Book that treated with economic conditions across the country from mid-May through the end of June described moderate growth, almost no price pressure and extremely modest wage pressure, most of which was confined to the Cleveland, Chicago and San Francisco areas.
Prices seem as far away as they have been since 2009 from the desired 2.00% inflationary growth the Fed is looking for.
Wall Street is puzzling it all out as it prepares for the next FOMC meeting at the end of July. Thus the breather. Aside from the apparently permanent “modest growth,” equities in the U.S. were struggling against another blow to crude oil prices brought on by a U.S. government report that said there was a smaller-than-expected crude inventory draw for last week.
Crude inventories fell 2.5 million barrels in the week ending on July 8, half a million barrels less of a drawdown than analysts predicted. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned again that an intractable supply glut worldwide was threatening market recovery.
Beyond the crude draw, distillate stockpiles rose 4.1 million barrels much, much more than expectations for a 256,000-barrel increase.
Gasoline stockpiles rose unexpectedly by 1.2 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a 432,000-barrel drop. That is an enormous swing. There was also a gigantic build in home heating oil reserves.
West Texas Intermediate and Brent North Sea were both trading off by about 4.00% at settlement.
It’s a tribute to the muscularity of the equities markets that oil did not knock a per cent or more off stock prices.
A risk-off day frame of mind helped push down bond yields and lured some players into buying yen as haven moves.
Yet all the scuttlebutt says that we are nowhere near finished with the secular bull market that has been driving stock prices up with the exception of China. The Shanghai has been hanging around the 3000 level for most of the year although it is off its lows of 2638 in late January.
Therein lies the big story behind the skittishness reflected in other indexes. But perhaps the rest of the world has finally decided that a lumbering China and long-term low oil prices can be coped with.
We expect the equities party to rev up again at any time.
Wishing you as always, good trading,
Gary Wagner
Thegoldforecast.com
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2016-07-13/Gold-Rises-As-Equities-Take-A-Breather-And-Dollar-Strength-Subsides.html
Talk Of Oil "Death Spiral" Emerges
by Tyler Durden
Jul 13, 2016 7:19 PM
One week ago, we looked at an epic build up of gasoline inventories on the East Coast, also known as PADD1, which had slammed the crack spread to record lows for this time of the year, and asked if "This What Finally Drags Crude Oil Lower." We were referring to the collapsing Crack Spreads, which show that something disturbing is taking place for US refingers who are no longer able to "internalize" the massive crude glut.
U.S. gasoline crack spread a proxy for refiner margins, has dropped 34 percent in two weeks. On Wednesday, it hit a five-year low for this time of year below $13 a barrel. That is less than half the crack spread of $28 a barrel at this time last year.
As of today, the WTI crack spread was $13.1, largely unchanged from a week ago.
We then quoted Andrew Lebow, senior partner at Commodity Research Group in Darien, who summarized it best by saying that “PADD 1 is a holy mess. It is very unusual. If a market becomes extremely oversupplied, like PADD 1, they are going to have to cut runs.” That is another way of saying refiners will have to stay shut, which in turn will force crude to build up in various on and offshore storage locations.
Our summary of the strange events taking place in the US refining industry:
with the inventory bottlenecking having reached all the way to the gasoline level, in lieu of refiner buying, crude producers will be forced to start selling oil and dumping prices just to get marginal demand as both onshore and offshore storage is near capacity. Most likely this will happen in the next few weeks, when coupled with the near full Chinese SPR, the slump in Chinese oil demand, the elimination in Nigerian supply overhangs, the resumption of Libyan exports, it will send the price of oil tumbling, and incidentally replaying the summer of 2015 when crude crashed...
One week later, and with gasoline and distillate inventory builds continuing to rise precariously, it appears that this sentiment is starting to permeate the analyst community. This is how WSJ's Market Talk blog describes what is going on:
Inventories of gasoline and other refined products in the US rose strongly last week, weighing on prices today. It's the result of months of cheap crude prompting refiners to buy more crude and run at higher rates to turn it into products. Lipow Oil Associates sees the start of a "death spiral" as "product inventories are high, margins come under pressure, refiners reduce crude runs and therefore the crude-oil glut grows to the point where someone wants to discount" to unload it--inspiring refiners "to kick up their runs again." .
End result: today WTI closed the NYMEX session at its lowest level since May 10. It may be only the beginning.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-13/talk-oil-death-spiral-emerges